Predicting XB1 and PS4 sales *spawn

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You keep bringing up this bogus metric that has no relevance to total sales.
It has an economist-endorsed relevance to gauging demand, and as long as demand is high, sales will follow. This is pretty conveniently supported by the fact PS4 has both a higher relative resale price and has sold more worldwide, no?
 
I said demand, not sales.

What good is demand when you can't sell consoles because you don't have any?

It has an economist-endorsed relevance to gauging demand, and as long as demand is high, sales will follow. This is pretty conveniently supported by the fact PS4 has both a higher relative resale price and has sold more worldwide, no?

Sony launched in more territories so I would expect higher worldwide sales.
 
What good is demand when you can't sell consoles?

usually demand would indicate you can sell consoles..

The real question is if the demand is just as high with the xb1 but they have supply and therefore can sell more even though we might think that those boxes we see on shelves indicates lesser demand.

The Amazon's topseller lists indicates this to not be the case.
 
What good is demand when you can't sell consoles because you don't have any?
.

Really? Econ 101? To have sales, you need supply (consoles on shelves) and demand (people willing to buy them).

XB1: No real supply issues in most territories. Demand was 900k in Dec, Jan is unknown.

PS4: Sold out everywhere, not enough supply for the particular demand, which is at least 860k in Dec. Current demand outstrips supply, whatever it is (presumably at least as good as previous months). If demand is high enough, the grey market responds with higher prices. So to judge demand you can study the grey market.
 
I'm in Canada, none of the major retailers have stock of the xb1 locally or on their .ca portals. Best Buy, futureshop, walmart or target. Not sure about walmarts online they might have a bundle.

No offense, but you're downplaying others for stating that there is stock in a high populace area such as Silicon Valley (and other major cities) of a country that has a population of 317 million with your own country/region with a population of roughly a tenth (~35 million)?

I'm not really sure that's really relevant, even if you live in a major city such as Toronto. How do Canada sales stack up to US ones anyway? Given the population difference, I wouldn't think it's very significant; e.g. I would bet that MS allocated way more units to the US than they would have to Canada, given the difference in market size. If MS did supply the US with at least 7-8 times more stock, I wouldn't be surprised to hear that in Canada it's still sold out where as it might not be in the US.
 
http://i.imgur.com/ZQR8i8d.png[/IG]

Apparently they didn't bother to stock Canada since December 2013.:roll:

No wonder you can't find any.





Do we really have to continue to lecture Rudecurve on stuff you can learn in first year university?[/QUOTE]


nowinstock doesn't track Canada as well as it does the US (ie it's not updated very often, and it doesn't track all of the major stores). Futureshop/Bestbuy, Walmart, TheSource and EBGames had them in stock for weeks. Walmart still has bundles, EBGames has them in stock and amazon.ca has them available for the end of January. I've seen at least a dozen or so people say they've seen a bunch of Xbox Ones in stores at redflagdeals, which is the Canadian equivalent of slickdeals. Like I said before, it's not as available as it is in the US, but it's still not that hard to find one.
 
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Really? Econ 101? To have sales, you need supply (consoles on shelves) and demand (people willing to buy them).

XB1: No real supply issues in most territories. Demand was 900k in Dec, Jan is unknown.

PS4: Sold out everywhere, not enough supply for the particular demand, which is at least 860k in Dec. Current demand outstrips supply, whatever it is (presumably at least as good as previous months). If demand is high enough, the grey market responds with higher prices. So to judge demand you can study the grey market.

You can't sell something you don't have in stock....in other words the "high demand" that you keep bringing up is effectively worthless...

It's good for sustaining the "hype" factor though...which is good for scalpers...

Each and every minute that you can't satisfy demand you increase the odds of the customer buying something else that is readily available...eg XBO...

It's not the win win that you're trying to perpetuate...
 
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No offense, but you're downplaying others for stating that there is stock in a high populace area such as Silicon Valley (and other major cities) of a country that has a population of 317 million with your own country/region with a population of roughly a tenth (~35 million)?

Sorry I missed where someone provided evidence that all 317 million Americans could walk into their closest retailer and pick one up. I also know for a fact from friends there are some regional shortages in the US. (ie Not every retailer has ready supply)

I'm not really sure that's really relevant, even if you live in a major city such as Toronto. How do Canada sales stack up to US ones anyway? Given the population difference, I wouldn't think it's very significant; e.g. I would bet that MS allocated way more units to the US than they would have to Canada, given the difference in market size. If MS did supply the US with at least 7-8 times more stock, I wouldn't be surprised to hear that in Canada it's still sold out where as it might not be in the US.

So we're ignoring regions that don't sell as many units as the US now? It's always nice to know we can just look at NPD and get the full sales picture... because nothing else matters.
 
You can't sell something you don't have in stock....in other words the "high demand" that you keep bringing up is effectively worthless...

It's good for sustaining the "hype" factor though...which is good for scalpers...

Each and every minute that you can't satisfy demand you increase the odds of the customer buying something else that is readily available...eg XBO...

It's not the win win that you're trying to perpetuate...

They have sold more than 4 million, so apparently those are all held by eBay scalpers? Sony produces as much or more units as MS, so now you have to explain the lack of units without demand and sales, good luck.
 
They have sold more than 4 million, so apparently those are all held by eBay scalpers? Sony produces as much or more units as MS, so now you have to explain the lack of units without demand and sales, good luck.

What the hell are you talking about? Your argument is trending toward kookyland...

You can't sell something you don't have in stock no matter how much "demand" you have. What Sony have sold so far is what they have in stock regardless how much "demand" is out there.

At the end of the day this "demand" argument is effectively worthless when it cannot translate into physical sales due to lack of inventory.

There is PS4 "demand"....wah wah wah....ok...so? Will this "demand" magically solve the production issue? No therefore it's just hand waving and nothing more.
 
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What the hell are you talking about? Your argument is trending toward kookyland...

You can't sell something you don't have in stock no matter how much "demand" you have. What Sony have sold so far is what they have in stock regardless how much "demand" is out there.

At the end of the day this "demand" argument is effectively worthless when it cannot translate into physical sales due to lack of inventory.

You can't sell something when you have no demand no matter how much "stock" you have. What Microsoft have sold so far is what they have in demand regardless how much "stock" they have out there.



Works both ways, but it paints a much better picture for one of them, and we all know (well, RudeCurve will disagree, by default, which is completely expected) which one that is. :smile:

We all know it's much better to be supply constrained than demand constrained.
 
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And XBO one sold more according to NPD because they had more stock to satisfy demand...that's what matters at the end of the day.

Which console has more "demand" is effectively worthless...

Each and every minute that you can't satisfy demand you increase the odds of the customer buying something else that is readily available...eg XBO...

If you're in the business of selling stuff it's better to have slightly more stock than demand.
 
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What the hell are you talking about? Your argument is trending toward kookyland...

You can't sell something you don't have in stock no matter how much "demand" you have. What Sony have sold so far is what they have in stock regardless how much "demand" is out there.

At the end of the day this "demand" argument is effectively worthless when it cannot translate into physical sales due to lack of inventory.

There is PS4 "demand"....wah wah wah....ok...so? Will this "demand" magically solve the production issue? No

In economic terms, you really are making no sense whatsoever. First of all stop putting "demand" in quotes, like it was some sort of magical pixie dust, is not the way to go.
Demand is not an argument, nor kookyland.
And ignoring demand is, quite simply, wrong.
Discussing sales, price, production without taking into account demand and supply just doesn't exist in this universe, regardless of whether you might think otherwise.
A few here have been trying to explain this to you but you still don't seem to be able to grasp the concept.
 
Each and every minute that you can't satisfy demand you increase the odds of the customer buying something else that is readily available...eg XBO...

That might work if you go to the shop to buy your favourite washing up liquid. The one that doesn't dry your hands. Unfortunately it is out of stock on the day and you end up buying the next available alternative.

In a market such as console gaming, things are not that simple. Someone who has decided to buy a PS4 (or an X1) will not magically want to buy the other if their preferred choice isn't available immediately, they'll just wait. And we all know why that is. And it's pretty clear that you also wouldn't be one of those suddenly changing your preferred platform just because it isn't available right now.
 
I'm not ignoring demand...

I'm stating facts

XBO is able to satisfy demand because they able to supply more inventory

PS4 isn't able to satisfy demand because they don't have enough supply

The NPD numbers is all that matters at the end of the day...not some nebulous "demand" theory that doesn't magically solve the supply issue.
 
And XBO one sold more according to NPD because they had more stock to satisfy demand...that's what matters at the end of the day.

Which console has more "demand" is effectively worthless...

Each and every minute that you can't satisfy demand you increase the odds of the customer buying something else that is readily available...eg XBO...

If you're in the business of selling stuff it's better to have more stock than demand.




That only works when the "something else" is a perceived as a replacement of the original product. In this case, no. Much more often than not you have people waiting for the PS4. Have you seen anybody here say "I can't get my hands on a PS4 so I'll get myself a Xbox One"? no.


Really, does the whole forum have to come down to give him a lecture due to having him break rule after rule in ECON 101??



On a anecdotal note, I have friends in the US walk into gamestops asking for a PS4 to look for availability. They commented on the light-speed response of the clerks in saying "Would you like a Xbox One?" and then politely declining the offer after having a chuckle.
 
I'm not ignoring demand...

I'm stating facts

XBO is able to satisfy demand because they able to supply more inventory

PS4 isn't able to satisfy demand because they don't have enough supply

The NPD numbers is all that matters at the end of the day...not some nebulous "demand" theory that doesn't magically solve the supply issue.

Demand is not a bloody NEBULOUS THEORY for God's sake.

Guess what, this 'magical nebulous demand theory' is part of what every financial market is based on. Without it, there would be no capitalism, no stock market, no Beyonce, no nothing. The universe would not be the same. STOP CALLING IT A THEORY.
 
In a market such as console gaming, things are not that simple. Someone who has decided to buy a PS4 (or an X1) will not magically want to buy the other if their preferred choice isn't available immediately, they'll just wait. And we all know why that is. And it's pretty clear that you also wouldn't be one of those suddenly changing your preferred platform just because it isn't available right now.

There's no proof that every person who's looking to buy a PS4 will wait until stock is available. You're talking about brand loyal consumers. Most people just want to play games on a game console and they could go either way.
 
That only works when the "something else" is a perceived as a replacement of the original product. In this case, no. Much more often than not you have people waiting for the PS4. Have you seen anybody here say "I can't get my hands on a PS4 so I'll get myself a Xbox One"? no.

Really, does the whole forum have to come down to give him a lecture due to having him break rule after rule in ECON 101??

On a anecdotal note, I have friends in the US walk into gamestops asking for a PS4 to look for availability. They commented on the light-speed response of the clerks in saying "Would you like a Xbox One?" and then politely declining the offer after having a chuckle.

All anecdotal...effectively worthless testimony...
 
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