Then tell us about your friends experience instead?
Well the discussion was about the NPD numbers, and how the PS4 was in limited supply while the XB1 wasn't.
Predicting XB1 and PS4 sales *spawn
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Then tell us about your friends experience instead?
Well the discussion was about the NPD numbers, and how the PS4 was in limited supply while the XB1 wasn't.
Does anyone remember this graph?
This is why demand is half of the equation, when stock is not the bottleneck, sales are not necessarily equal. At some point MS and Sony are going to ship enough to meet demand, the question is why is the slope of the equivalent graph? At this point (probably sometime in mid-Dec) MS shipped enough to meet their demand (everywhere but Canada?). We don't yet know when Sony will hit their wall. When they do, 3rd party prices will finally equal MSRP -simple economics.
This is why demand is half of the equation, when stock is not the bottleneck, sales are not necessarily equal. At some point MS and Sony are going to ship enough to meet demand, the question is why is the slope of the equivalent graph? At this point (probably sometime in mid-Dec) MS shipped enough to meet their demand (everywhere but Canada?). We don't yet know when Sony will hit their wall. When they do, 3rd party prices will finally equal MSRP -simple economics.
Bigus Dickus
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Maybe if you keep repeating that it might come true?? Or you could point to some data that supports that?
Again, this was for December. Both consoles were largely supply limited during that month. Both consoles sold essentially everything shipped.
Now, you can speculate all you want about "what ifs" but its just speculation. The NPD data doesn't really tell us anything more than that both shipped almost the same number to NA during December.
January might be vastly different. I guess it will be at least some, probably moderately different. Speculate away. But reading more into the data than is there isn't logical, or necessary.
The only point I've been trying to make is there are still regional shortages of the xb1. A number of posters continue to try to claim that the xb1 one is on shelves everywhere. bkilian made the same point in the business thread. You attempting to extrapolate that into something else is your own failing.
This is wishful thinking IMO. NPD ran until Jan 4th, there is no evidence the XB1 was supply limited for last 2 weeks of the NPD. There were threads full of evidence with stock all over the US. They were in stock online, pics of stacks of consoles, pics of internal stock tracking, etc. There was nothing like this for the PS4. So either you think there is a conspiracy or you are using false equivalence. A few areas of low or no stock for XB1 does not equate to all of the US or UK being supply limited. MS sold 900k, they could not have sold more, they were easy to find and this has been reflected in the 3rd party market where the XB1 has not sold for over MSRP since the first few weeks of release.
http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2013/12/ps4-outselling-xbox-one-nearly-2-to-1-on-ebay/
That's Dec 23, before X-mas and well before Jan 4th.
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If i cared i would give a fuck, but i really don't. There isn't any Proxy war going on this round, it was close but thank god it didn't happen. I preordered the XB1 more or less the day after they gave up their DRM plans.
If you go back and read up a bit, and instead of reading between the lines read whats been said you will see what i said was aimed at Alphawolf. Who was claiming that demand is high for the XB1 and it seems as if he suggests that those that see it on shelves are lucky. Turns out he is in Canada.. And this was in a discussion about NPD numbers and demand in the USA, NPD that afaik have nothing to do with Canada. And i think i have said more than once that December numbers showed nothing about who is "winning" but only something about production capacity and supply, i could quote myself, but why bother when you are already of the track.
January is another story, and that imho is what is interesting now, which console loses steam first, and what will the response be.
Bigus Dickus
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This is what I'm trying to point out is necessary. We can dream up scenarios where MS could have sold a lot more in December if more supply was available. Same for Sony. But why speculate and presume? I actually think you are probably right that MS couldn't have sold much more, but I'm guessing too. Nothing in the NPD data, or the anecdotes posted here and elsewhere about availability in late December, or online sales rates during the same, or eBay prices, or anything else can prove that.
Why bother with reading into data what isn't there when more data is coming?
Bigus Dickus
Regular
OK, glad we agree.
djskribbles
Legend
You can't extrapolate from a single anecdotal report, but when you add up all the bits and pieces, you can get a very good idea of what the stock situation is like in the US. Almost all anecdotal reports I've read say the same or similar thing -- that there are at least a few X1s on shelves, with some people even posting pictures of huge piles of them sitting on the top shelf. Rarely do I see people say that they couldn't find any. Then there's the fact that all online retailers have them in stock, and have had them in stock for at least 3-4 weeks now. Then you look on ebay and see them selling for below cost, or about even. If there are supply issues in some parts of the country, then I think that it hardly has an affect on sales, or at least it pales in comparison to the PS4's supply issues.
Unless there is a unit on every shelf at every moment someone tried to find a unit the effect on a sale is unknown. The opportunity of an impulse buy has been lost. The opportunity to buy an xb1 in the US has certainly been better than the opportunity to buy a ps4, but the point at which that demand would be met is an unknown.
The fact that there are xb1's on shelves in places only means supply is meeting or exceeding the demand in that region (I agree that is most places in the US), if MS had only shipped 865k units to the US for December, there likely wouldn't be many units on shelves. That doesn't mean I wouldn't have been able to find one if I tried hard enough. I could have bought a ps4 from amazon as well although they sold out fairly quickly.
Keep in mind when the xbox360 sold over 1.8m in december 2010 there was no lack of supply. Having units on shelves does not mean demand is low, it simply means supply is meeting demand.
If people who wanted one yesterday didn't buy one yesterday, chances are they still want to buy one. There has to be a quite significant change for that not to be true by and large for the majority of potential customers. And there's also the flip side that although someone may not have wanted one yesterday, they might today.
That's why overall trends are looked at instead of trying to guess the day-to-day sales rate. Broadly speaking demand will shift in somewhat predictable patterns once the product is out and trends can be monitored. You'll have a Christmas rush, and an early adopter rush, and then settle down to a more subdued sell-through based on general demand. Higher demand will be reflected in things like stock selling out faster and prices increasing, which are taken as signs of higher long-term sales potential for those who are interested in trying to predict such things (console makers, investors, economists).
Significant changes such as the holiday is over and/or the money was spent on something else.
Demand is January is going to be lower than it was in december. It's possible they could sell as many as they did in December (but it's doubtful they'll have that supply) because they weren't close to meeting december demand and enough has carried over.
Clearly you're lying, everyone knows that the US has millions of them sitting on shelves gathering dust.
Of course, but those trends are factored in by the forecasters. They won't expect Jan sales == Dec sales, but they will look at demand over Dec and try to predict how that'll follow through for Jan.
Maybe I've lost the thread, but I think some people are arguing over points that were never raised. As I've read it, the observation was only made that demand is higher for PS4 than XB1 based on apparent availability and free-market pricing. I don't recall anyone predicting numbers of sales as a result, such that PS4 could sell in Jan what it sold in Dec. As I've understood it, the argument has been very simply, "current PS4 demand is higher than XB1 and so it has and will sell more."
Clearly you're lying, everyone knows that the US has millions of them sitting on shelves gathering dust.
Yes. It is obvious there is a mass conspiracy by every retailer who say they have them in stock! They all just want to make Microsoft look bad!!!!
Instead, we must believe unsubstantiated reports of random people on the internet that they are sold out everywhere. After all - several months ago some random person's friend was told an item was in stock at (insert the name of your favorite retailer here) and it wasn't there!!!!!!
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