Predicting XB1 and PS4 sales *spawn

[London Geezer]

There's no proof that every person who's looking to buy a PS4 will wait until stock is available. You're talking about brand loyal consumers. Most people just want to play games on a game console and they could go either way.

Don't be ridiculous.
Regardless of the simple fact that brand loyalty is a very, very strong factor IN THIS MARKET.
Since you are reporting 'facts', then the 'facts' are pretty clear. X1's are sitting on shelves, and PS4's are out of stock, and flying off shelves as quickly as they come in.
This can only mean one thing. That people waiting for PS4's are not buying X1's.
You would not buy a PS4 just because you can't get your hands on an X1 right now. You clearly wouldn't buy one if someone held a gun to your head, but that's besides the point here.

 

[RudeCurve]

X1's are sitting on shelves, and PS4's are out of stock, and flying off shelves as quickly as they come in.

And that's how you run a business, supply more than demand so that you don't lose a sale...

If you only want to cater to brand loyal consumers then sure having stuff out of stock may not make much of difference, but if you want to include NEW customers then you supply more than needed.

 

[London Geezer]

All anecdotal...effectively worthless testimony...

Demand and supply is not, once again, an anecdotal and effectively worthless testimony.

However ignoring established and really quite simple laws of economics, just to continue this useless console war and making things look differently than they are? That is worthless.

 

[Strange]

I'm not ignoring demand...

I'm stating facts

XBO is able to satisfy demand because they able to supply more inventory

PS4 isn't able to satisfy demand because they don't have enough supply

The NPD numbers is all that matters at the end of the day...not some nebulous "demand" theory that doesn't magically solve the supply issue.

Supply constrained (PS4)
actual sales < potential sales
In normal English: PS4 could have sold a lot more consoles if they had stock.
In even simpler English: PS4 can easily zip way past 4.2 million worldwide 2013 and current December NPD if they supplied more.

Given the supply constraint, We do not know how well PS4 can sell, we only know that it is realizing a fraction of what it can. 4.2 million in 6 weeks is a lower bound.

Seeing it continue to sell out well into the 9th, 10th week, and quite possibly all the way into March and even April is a scary thing, especially when we know that Sony is doing a good job supplying the console, it's just selling too fast.



Demand constrained (Xbox One)
actual sales = potential sales
In normal English: Xbox One could not sell more consoles given the situation in December.
In even Simpler English: 3 million consoles in 2013 and 900k December NPD is as good as it gets. It's as much a upper bound as much as it is a lower bound.

Therefore, we're pretty much looking at the full potential of Xbox One currently.



Given we're talking about a long confrontation, demand is the metric you want to keep up when both companies have similar supply.






I'd like to see Rudecurve argue that new iphones are in bad shape because they're usually very supply constrained despite selling millions of units.

 

[London Geezer]

And that's how you run a business, supply more than demand so that you don't lose a sale...

If you only want to cater to brand loyal consumers then sure having stuff out of stock may not make much of difference, but if you want to include NEW customers then you supply more than needed.

Running a business requires many other things. One of which would be producing a product that sells way above expectations, making supply and distribution a challenge.
That's a much better position to be in, than making something that people don't want to buy.

 

[RudeCurve]

Supply constrained (PS4)
actual sales < potential sales
In normal English: PS4 could have sold a lot more consoles if they had stock.
In even simpler English: PS4 can easily zip way past 4.2 million worldwide and current December NPD if they supplied more.

Given the supply constraint, We do not know how well PS4 can sell, we only know that it is realizing a fraction of what it can. 4.2 million in 6 weeks is a lower bound.

Seeing it continue to sell out well into the 9th, 10th week, and quite possibly all the way into March and even April is a scary thing, especially when we know that Sony is doing a good job supplying the console, it's just selling too fast.


Demand constrained (Xbox One)
actual sales = potential sales
In normal English: Xbox One could not sell more consoles given the situation in December.
In even Simpler English: 3 million consoles in December and 900k December NPD is as good as it gets.

Therefore, we're pretty much looking at the full potential of Xbox One currently.

Given we're talking about a long confrontation, demand is the metric you want to keep up when both companies have similar supply.

And again you're repeating the same argument about potential sales....I'm not interested in potential sales I'm interested in ACTUAL sales. Plain and simple you don't have stock you can't sell...period.

 

[London Geezer]

I'd like to see Rudecurve argue that new Iphones are in bad shape because they're usually very supply constrained despite selling millions of units.

I'm sure he'd argue that if it was convenient to him, if he was as loyal to Samsung as he is to other companies.

At the end of the day Rude's argument is scientifically flawed because he seems to think that demand should not be in the equation. Anyone that took even one 5 minute class in fundamentals of economics would know why the argument is flawed.

 

[DrJay24]

And that's how you run a business, supply more than demand so that you don't lose a sale...
.

PS4 has sold more LTD. So explain how Sony could better run their business. I suppose you would advocate raising the price so that [redacted] is lower and supply looks "good"?

Strange did a great job with his post, please read and learn.

 

[London Geezer]

And again you're repeating the same argument about potential sales....I'm not interested in potential sales I'm interested in ACTUAL sales. Plain and simple you don't have stock you can't sell...period.

The discussion was not about the hard numbers, which have been verified and listed to death. Rangers for example started extrapolating what the PS4 might be able to sell after the Japan launch, and people are more interested in what the PS4 will be able to sell when it is not supply constrained.

Saying that PS4 sold X and X1 sold Y is not really a discussion. It's 2 numbers.

Talking about why PS4 sold X and X1 sold Y, based on simple laws of supply and demand, is the discussion at hand.

Such a discussion cannot simply be about supply, and it cannot simply be about demand. One cannot exist without the other, and therefore if you want a discussion that makes sense, you consider both.

"No stock no sale" is like saying the sky is blue.

 

[RudeCurve]

PS4 has sold more LTD. So explain how Sony could better run their business. I suppose you would advocate raising the price so that [redacted] is lower and supply looks "good"?

Strange did a great job with his post, please read and learn.

They launched first and in more markets...did you conveniently forget?

The discussion was not about the hard numbers, which have been verified and listed to death. Rangers for example started extrapolating what the PS4 might be able to sell after the Japan launch, and people are more interested in what the PS4 will be able to sell when it is not supply constrained.

Saying that PS4 sold X and X1 sold Y is not really a discussion. It's 2 numbers.

Talking about why PS4 sold X and X1 sold Y, based on simple laws of supply and demand, is the discussion at hand.

Such a discussion cannot simply be about supply, and it cannot simply be about demand. One cannot exist without the other, and therefore if you want a discussion that makes sense, you consider both.

"No stock no sale" is like saying the sky is blue.

Well then I'll let everyone speculate about potential sales while I wait for facts and figures thanks...

 

[Strange]

They launched first and in more markets...did you conveniently forget?



Well then I'll let everyone speculate about potential sales while I wait for facts and figures thanks...

And as a result Xbox One dominated in the "home market" and sold more in US and UK at the end of 2013!

Oh wait....


What's crazy to me is how the 1.2 million difference is still excluding Japan, which we'll know in a month.

 

[DrJay24]

They launched first and in more markets...did you conveniently forget?

So? Where they allocate their units is part of strategy, would they have sold more shifting them somewhere? They sold every unit made. They also released after the XB1 outside NA, did you forget?

 

[London Geezer]

Well then I'll let everyone speculate about potential sales while I wait for facts and figures thanks...

That's why we're here, no? We listed the sales figures, we showed how supply and demand affected both and are still affecting both, and we speculate on the next few months.
That's a discussion. This is a forum.

Off to bed now.

 

[RudeCurve]

So? Where they allocate their units is part of strategy, would they have sold more shifting them somewhere? They sold every unit made. They also released after the XB1 outside NA, did you forget?

Why are you asking me? You're the one who's interested in speculation and predictions. I'm only interested in numbers. XB1 sold in fewer markets so I expected fewer sales....good enough for me...maybe it's not good enough for you because you're looking to claim a winner and loser and trying to prove something?

"No stock no sale" is like saying the sky is blue"

When taken out of context yes...but it's basically true and what really matters at the end of the day.

As opposed to saying "I think it will be sunny tomorrow because the weather map indicates no clouds"...? Which is fine but we all know how accurate or not predictions can be...whatever floats your boat...

I'd like to see Rudecurve argue that new iphones are in bad shape because they're usually very supply constrained despite selling millions of units.

That would be interesting given the fact I never said the PS4 was in bad shape. Regardless it's a pretty bogus comparison as I've never had issues getting a brand new Iphone at launch.. Apple is MUCH better than Sony on having enough supply for a new product launch.

 

[Bigus Dickus]

Aren't these December NPD data being thrashed over? I would expect MS was not very different from Sony during the December month regarding being supply limited. All this nonsense about MS being demand limited and Sony obviously heavily supply constrained during December, based on availability of consoles and some limited tracking of online sales in JANUARY is, well, nonsense.

In fact, the December NPD probably shows who had slightly more supply in the NA channels, and that's about all.

Now the situation for January could be different. Maybe a lot different. Maybe not. But some of the deductions in this thread are ridiculous. Logic be damned. Like a lot of the "inside" information we were fed that seems to have been a load of bull.

 

[Strange]

Aren't these December NPD data being thrashed over? I would expect MS was not very different from Sony during the December month regarding being supply limited. All this nonsense about MS being demand limited and Sony obviously heavily supply constrained during December, based on availability of consoles and some limited tracking of online sales in JANUARY is, well, nonsense.

In fact, the December NPD probably shows who had slightly more supply in the NA channels, and that's about all.

Now the situation for January could be different. Maybe a lot different. Maybe not. But some of the deductions in this thread are ridiculous. Logic be damned. Like a lot of the "inside" information we were fed that seems to have been a load of bull.

Situation wasn't that different Way back in December 27.

Take a walk back to around page 7 of this thread to get an idea please.


On a side note, according to
http://www.nowinstock.net/videogaming/consoles/xboxone/full_history.php

Here is a list of the most recent times when Xbox One went out of stock on various outlets is the following (Standard edition)

Jan 10 2014 - 8:01 PM EST to Jan 10 2014 - 8:42 PM EST (42 mins) Best Buy
Jan 03 2014 - 11:37 PM EST to Jan 04 2014 - 12:37 AM EST (1 hour) Amazon
Dec 30 2013 - 5:56 PM EST to Dec 30 2013 - 6:38 PM EST (42 mins) Walmart
Dec 20 2013 - 10:49 AM EST to Dec 20 2013 - 10:57 AM EST (8 mins) Sam's Club

So it isn't far fetched to say that Xbox One finished the "supply constrained phase" back in late December.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

And that's how you run a business, supply more than demand so that you don't lose a sale...

You are misunderstanding what 'demand' means here, as people are using it (in the economic sense of how much something is wanted, not how much it sells directly).

People have repeatedly tried to correct you on this. It'd be best if you either update you're lexicon to understand the term and use it in the context of the discussion, or refrain from participating in the discussion. The last page of talk really hasn't been useful for anyone.

Why are you asking me? You're the one who's interested in speculation and predictions.

Then don't engage in the discussion that's using economic theory to try to understand the state of the console markets (something you can be sure the console companies themselves are also doing. A higher price on eBay is going to have Sony smiling because they appreciate what that means).

 

[Gerry]

What is quite interesting: only negative talk about the X1 can be heard, if people even talk about it. One student told me: 'did you know...when you watch a movie, you don't pay before watching it...but after the movie ends, such that the X1 can scan the room and determine how many people watched...'

I hope you explained to your student that he (or she) is a moron.

 

[Phil]

Sorry I missed where someone provided evidence that all 317 million Americans could walk into their closest retailer and pick one up. I also know for a fact from friends there are some regional shortages in the US. (ie Not every retailer has ready supply)

Wait a minute - people were posting anectotal evidence that Xbox One could have outshipped demand because they can effectively find unsold units at their local stores. This is of some importance, because both consoles have been heavily supply constraint from launch till at least mid-end december from what we know and people are trying to gauge what the actual demand is.

You then came in and claimed that all your stores in your region were still sold out, implying that demand is therefore still high. After asking for some evidence or to provide a ZIP code so that we could check for ourselves where these units are available, you state that you live in Canada - a region 1/9th the size of the US.

That would be like me making an argument that demand is still greater than supply based on anectotal evidence of a local store that got an insubstantial amount of units and was able to sell through.

NA is not Canada. Canada is a part of the NA territory, but given the large difference in market size, I would assume that at least 8/10th of stock to be allocated to that market. Hence, it's very plausable that in Canada and that region, demand still outweighs supply (because supply allocation could be rather low), but in the US (where the majority of NA sales come from) it is not.

In layman's terms; if Microsoft supplied most of their stock to the US market and only shipped a small portion of units to Canada, it could very well be that in the US, supply > demand, where as in Canada, due to the shortage of units, demand > supply - hence, my question, if we have numbers on how these two regions match up historically.

So we're ignoring regions that don't sell as many units as the US now? It's always nice to know we can just look at NPD and get the full sales picture... because nothing else matters.

No we're not, but you don't see me posting sales of my own region [Switzerland] because in the larger picture, it's not where the big sales are coming from. Sure they all add up, but our region is at this point minor and insignificant, especially when we are trying to gauge the demand on a global scale. And on a global scale, it's relevant to include the regions where most of the supply is heading - which I'm guessing would be foremost the US in the case of the Xbox One.

 

[Bigus Dickus]

Take a walk back to around page 7 of this thread to get an idea please.

Been reading it since the beginning. You're welcome.

So it isn't far fetched to say that Xbox One finished the "supply constrained phase" back in late December.

Which changes any of what I wrote how exactly? I think perhaps you misread, or perhaps you filter everything with a bias that prohibits understanding.