Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[Nesh]

the problem is that directx12 wont probably be out for a long time (2014 ?) + I doubt it would be as a generational leap compared to its predecessor as directx11 was to directx10, or directx9 was to directx8.

someone in this forum talked about ps3-xbox360 being unfortunately at the wrong timeline technology wise (a period of major technology shift) resulting on both consoles being hugely underpowered. I dont agree with this statement for xbox360, it was a perfect timeline for that cnsole at that period (fall 2005) : directx9 feature set, unified shaders, multi core-multi threaded CPU, GDDR....etc

But I do agree for ps3 which was released in the US in fall 2006, but was available in europe only in march 2007. the ps3 even missed the unified shaders revolution, and ended up with an outdated GPU the day of its release with the arrival of the revolutionary Geforce8. And if xbox360's 512 Mb of RAM + 10 Mb of edram can still be positively compared to PCs of 2005. the 512 Mb of ps3 in 2006-2007 were simply outdated ridicoulously low specifications compared to PCs of that time.

all of this showed clearly in software : the first multiplatform ps3 games were horrible compared to their xbox360 counterparts (If I remember correctly fifa or madden was running at 30 fps on ps3 without anti aliasing, and at 60 fps with 4x MSAA on xbox 360 ! it was shocking at that time ! ). But more importanlty xbox360 enjoyed the most technically advanced and graphically stunning (the first proper next gen title on the market) : gears of war. More advanced than anything PC could offer in 2006. That wasent the case of ps3 : not only geforce 8 came but also Crysis happened, making the ps3 technically obsolete almost the day of its release in europe, not even enjoying 1 year of superiority VS PC a la xbox360 (in terms of software)....

so xbox360 was technically released in a perfect timeline and technological transition, nothing was missing (except maybe Blu Ray, and more or less a standard HDD). This wasent the case for ps3. what aout ps4-nextxbox ? I believe at least one of the two manufacturers can repeat the microsoft feat realized with the xbox360. I bet on sony this time despite the fact of their financial difficulties, with kinect apparently microsoft is going more or less the mainstream casual risky route. Add to this the taent of sony developers : just imagine what could naughty dog realize in 2013 for uncharted 4 with 4 GB of GDDR5 and a state of the art ATI 2 Tflops modern GPU (jaws dropping), or just imagine what kazunori yamauchi can do wen running its GT5 properly with all the high rez models and textures, full rez transparencies and at 1080p with 4X MSAA with stable 60 fps (I ant even imagine the result in my head lol it would be so photo realistic)

The PS3's OS was taking a huge chunk of the available memory so developers were really struggling with the hardware back then. Lots of that memory became available to devs later on

 

[french toast]

And walk over their install base too Unfortunately that ship has sailed. If they had any plans to wait longer and use Rogue, it would have been quashed by the iOS monster. It was launch now or never. And it's still a great handheld. I adore mine. Me and the 37 others who bought it.

Ha ha I have yet to play on one, when I first heard the rumored specs I thought it was a load of bull...bit it come true!..unfortunately for ninty fans rumours of a tegra chip in the 3ds didn't... :/

 

[Shifty Geezer]

It's technology that matters, not frequency and watts, I have no idea if rogue will out do xenos...but hypethetically .. in flops terms it will pan it, in api software terms it will pan it (dx 11.1?)

One of our proper resident chip tech experts will set the record straight, I'm sure, but something is extremely wrong with ATi and nVidia (or extremely right with IMG) if a 2W Rogue can outperform a 50W chip. Scaling that, 10 Rogues would be next-gen in 20 watts. The only way IMG could get that sort of relative performance advantage is if ATi/AMD and nVidia have been grossly inefficient all these years, including their existing designs, and that means ImageTec can release a desktop part with better performance at lower power than all of them and take over the entire graphics world.

(Cue Lazy8 with talk of PowerVR's superior architecture )

 

[french toast]

Yes true, but 8 years or so is a lifetime in technology world, if you remade a car from the 1960s and upgraded it with the latest suspension, brakes, tires, fuel, air filter, and spark plugs...would it be as fast, reliable and efficient as a brand new car today? Doubtfull.

Sketchy analogy lol but I think you understand my point.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Yes true, but 8 years or so is a lifetime in technology world...

Except AMD and nVidia have been progressing in this world too, and they haven't anything like a Xenos or RSX in 2W, nor anything like 10x Xenos/RSX (2.5TFlops) in a 20W package.

 

[Proelite]

That rumors a load of rubbish and there's no wonder its been ignored. Watch dogs running on x720? Not impossible except the developers specifically said it was running on pc, not an unnanounced platform. 12x x360 performance equal 8970? Lol not even close. Try more like 30x.

According to one of his insiders, Watch Dogs demo was running on the Wii-U and should look better on the 720.

 

[fehu]

Yes true, but 8 years or so is a lifetime in technology world, if you remade a car from the 1960s and upgraded it with the latest suspension, brakes, tires, fuel, air filter, and spark plugs...would it be as fast, reliable and efficient as a brand new car today? Doubtfull.

Sketchy analogy lol but I think you understand my point.

a generic car or a cool one?

 

[french toast]

Except AMD and nVidia have been progressing in this world too, and they haven't anything like a Xenos or RSX in 2W, nor anything like 10x Xenos/RSX (2.5TFlops) in a 20W package.

That's because they don't primarily design smartphone gpus (in amd case) and nvidia has its next gen Wayne hardware coming soon...so even they might be heading in that direction.

a generic car or a cool one?

Ha now that's one car that would stand the test of time

 

[bgassassin]

Actually the PS Vita is somewhat conservative (for a Sony console), it relies mostly on off the shelf parts and the iPad 3 is basically as powerful.

And while bgassassin seems to think so, he also seems to think we're all underestimating the Wii U's capabilities. Don't forget that iherre who's also a developer on GAF seems to think the 720 is the most powerful. (I don't know what each of their roles are, but bgassassin seems to pass on info he gets from the engineers/programmers while iherre seems to more state things as facts, so maybe he's closer to the technical side of things - or just pretending he is )

Iherre's position also matches the general tone of rumours about the 720 vs PS4. And is supported by IGN's survey of 35 developers on their thoughts on the next gen consoles:

http://au.ign.com/articles/2012/06/01/the-next-generation-according-to-game-developers

It also makes complete sense if you think of the two companies respective positions with Sony on a clear back foot - this isn't the Sony under Kutaragi.

That's a fairly accurate assessment for me. Though some haven't been directly involved with the hardware, but have said things consistent with other things I would hear mentioned.

I highly doubt Sony is makink such a weak hardware. Mind the last one they have created, PS Vita, is very powerful for a portable device. Hence, there is no reason to believe the PS4 will be such a low powered machine.

Plus, bgassassin seems to believe the Xbox 3 won´t be more powerful than the PS4, he may knows the final PS4 specs.

From what I've read on Gaf, bgassassin seems to disagree with iherre in regards to the power difference of PS4 and 720, I really don't know who's opinion is the most reliable but personally if there's a 1.8TF gpu in PS4 compared to the 1.1TF in 720 then wouldn't that make PS4's game almost twice as good looking as 720's in some aspects? But of course the ram difference is rather debatable right now with some rumor seems to suggest Sony has already shifted to 4g GDDR5, CPU wise I heard both consoles are going to get Jaguar cores, so in the end if this is how it can remotely play out, I think PS4 is gonna have a rather sizable advantage. Of course we still don't know if MS is settling with a 1.1TF gpu either. Maybe bgassassin can correct a few things here too?

My disagreement with him was based on assuming (emphasis on assuming) what he might be making his claim based on (the large amount of memory). As it stands I don't know enough about Xbox 3's GPU to "crown it" yet. It's just that when I got the first vague FLOP mention for that GPU, it wasn't as impressive as the first vague FLOP mention I got with PS4.

I don't recall it being mentioned that PS4 has moved to 4GB of GDDR5. Only that they are targeting it if the memory densities increase. And with the Jaguar cores, we're probably looking at Xbox 3 having more of them than PS4 if that does happen.

Also, lherre and BG fully agree on Durango V Orbis from what I know...though in the past I think lherre was making noises Durango was the clear leader, it's become more nuanced now.

I think there's a lot of confusion from some reply where people though lherre equated Durango=high end PC, Orbis=mid, Wii U=low, but IIRC he said nothing about Durango/Orbis comparatively.

With the latter part, lherre never said it. That was me. But I guess since lherre didn't refute it (actually I don't even remember him responding to it), people may have felt it was a legitimate analogy. But our agreement and that PC analogy was before I started seeing it for myself.

 

[itsmydamnation]

These jaguar cores better be better then crack otherwise we are looking at extremely unbalanced systems . Bobcat socs only have 80 vliw5 shaders for a reason

 

[bgassassin]

These jaguar cores better be better then crack otherwise we are looking at extremely unbalanced systems . Bobcat socs only have 80 vliw5 shaders for a reason

Well it would just be the CPU cores and not the actual APU. To me it sounds like Sony will be relying more on the GPGPU abilities of their GPU. And Sony's CTO talked about DSPs as well. PS4 and Wii U initially sound very similar in design with Wii U obviously being the weaker of the two. Xbox 3 seems to have more emphasis on the CPU for computing along with the extra memory, and saying this from a non-developer's viewpoint, is why based on IGN's survey that devs are having an easier time with Xbox 3 as they aren't having to convert as much of the tasks to the GPU as they would with the other two consoles. Hypothetically speaking of course.

 

[RedVi]

So Sony have effectively reversed the PS3 situation leaving the slightly better GPU to pick up the slightly worse CPU's slack...

I agree with Jaguar cores sounding underpowered. In a traditional PC setup it would be a massive CPU bottleneck; but of course consoles aren't PC's.

 

[Acert93]

Considering consoles spur out around 200-250w at load and mobiles around 2w...I happen to think it is very amazing.

The Xbox 360 launch unit barely topped 170W at load and current models are about 90W at load.

Likewise I think the 2W claims besting a console are also an exaggeration. We cannot know until these mythical SoC's are released and get real, non-PR-hype benchmarks but to be blunt is unlikely a mobile GPU sub-system in 2012 is going to best Xenos in performance while drawing only 2W, let alone an entire mobile (display, radio, CPU, CPU, memory, etc). I cannot prove this wrong, you cannot prove it right, but what can be proven is nothing like this currently exists and the previous claim about console power load is grossly inflated which makes me think the mobile claims are inflated in the other direction.

But we know the mobile industry WANTS people to believe this.

 

[itsmydamnation]

Well it would just be the CPU cores and not the actual APU.

no thats my point, bobcat is a pretty well balanced SOC. its CPU limited in games just as much as its GPU limited. you just cant say sony will fall back on GPGPU because GPGPU has real trade offs against CPU based FP ( latency being a massive one). history is a good guide. the biggest change we have seen in recent history was core to core2.

unless Jaguar is a complete new design ( not based off bobcat) then your are pretty much looking at the biggest archetexutal change we have seen in x86 if you want to have a hope in hell of supporting a 1.1TF let alone a 1.8TF GPU.

on the other hand the one thing about bobcat is its INT performance per clock is actually pretty good, in some instances better then STARS. So if they have solid INT performance increase from bobcat to Jaguar and AMD HSA for consoles is far more intergrated and way better then i think most cluely people are expecting ( im not a cluely person ) then maybe it might work. I doupt it.

if its AMD im willing to bet its steamroller. what happened to all the SMT rumors? your more likely to see SMT on steamroller then you would jaguar.

 

[bgassassin]

no thats my point, bobcat is a pretty well balanced SOC. its CPU limited in games just as much as its GPU limited. you just cant say sony will fall back on GPGPU because GPGPU has real trade offs against CPU based FP ( latency being a massive one). history is a good guide. the biggest change we have seen in recent history was core to core2.

unless Jaguar is a complete new design ( not based off bobcat) then your are pretty much looking at the biggest archetexutal change we have seen in x86 if you want to have a hope in hell of supporting a 1.1TF let alone a 1.8TF GPU.

on the other hand the one thing about bobcat is its INT performance per clock is actually pretty good, in some instances better then STARS. So if they have solid INT performance increase from bobcat to Jaguar and AMD HSA for consoles is far more intergrated and way better then i think most cluely people are expecting ( im not a cluely person ) then maybe it might work. I doupt it.

if its AMD im willing to bet its steamroller. what happened to all the SMT rumors? your more likely to see SMT on steamroller then you would jaguar.

Haha. Well for me I'm only semi-caught up on current tech so I can't say completely why there would be pros or cons to certain decisions right now.

The original target specs had it planned for four Steamroller cores. However there was a rumor that came out a few months ago that they changed from Steamroller cores to Jaguar cores. I haven't seen much info on Jaguar, which I'm assuming it's because of how far away it is from their release. And Kabini (Jaguar-based APU) is supposed to have HSA. And while APU is what has been used when talking about it, Sony's CTO said it would be an SoC.

 

[(((interference)))]

That's a fairly accurate assessment for me. Though some haven't been directly involved with the hardware, but have said things consistent with other things I would hear mentioned.

Thanks for clarifying that

My disagreement with him was based on assuming (emphasis on assuming) what he might be making his claim based on (the large amount of memory). As it stands I don't know enough about Xbox 3's GPU to "crown it" yet. It's just that when I got the first vague FLOP mention for that GPU, it wasn't as impressive as the first vague FLOP mention I got with PS4.

With the latter part, lherre never said it. That was me. But I guess since lherre didn't refute it (actually I don't even remember him responding to it), people may have felt it was a legitimate analogy. But our agreement and that PC analogy was before I started seeing it for myself.

If iherre, being an engineer, knows what he's talking about then he has quite consistently said Durango will be the most powerful. So not too different from your PC analogy:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=38274551&postcount=7296
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=38274838&postcount=7318

The "target" specs I've seen ps4 (the pc's that are the first kits so to speak) are about 10x ps3 in terms of raw power cpu and gpu ... And this is always less powerful than the hardware end with the final models. And Xbox is even more beast NeXT * so I have commented. So as I say surprise in that regard when all predict "little jump" technology.

translated from this quote:http://forum.beyond3d.com/showpost.php?p=1649097&postcount=12175

Now, it may be that with more recent Orbis devkits the gap between the two has narrowed and they're about equal (with the 720's extra RAM and CPU cores being offset by a weaker GPU), but I don't see a dramatic change like the PS4 being significantly more powerful (in real terms)- do you?


Do you know how close to final the GPUs in the current devkits for each system are believed to be? ie. is PS4 closer to final or Durango?

 

[bgassassin]

If iherre, being an engineer, knows what he's talking about then he has quite consistently said Durango will be the most powerful. So not too different from your PC analogy:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=38274551&postcount=7296
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=38274838&postcount=7318


translated from this quote:http://forum.beyond3d.com/showpost.php?p=1649097&postcount=12175

Now, it may be that with more recent Orbis devkits the gap between the two has narrowed and they're about equal (with the 720's extra RAM and CPU cores being offset by a weaker GPU), but I don't see a dramatic change like the PS4 being significantly more powerful (in real terms)- do you?


Do you know how close to final the GPUs in the current devkits for each system are believed to be? ie. is PS4 closer to final or Durango?

Ok so he did respond to that part. I couldn't remember. And I still think he's basing that on the CPU and memory at least for now. Tying that in with the last question when I was first told about PS4's GPU it was said to be "~2 TFLOPs", which I eventually learned it was ~1.8 TFLOPs. When I first heard about Xbox 3's I was told "1+ TFLOPs". So like I told the person, that doesn't sound very impressive compared to when I first heard about PS4's GPU (different people by the way). And he said they were still working on the GPU for Xbox 3. So that was about a month ago. I don't have an update on PS4's progress right now.

And yeah I think PS4 is pretty much set at whatever they plan it to be other than determining the memory amount. I see Sony keeping tighter control over costs.

 

[Xenus]

Lherre also seems to hint that the Xbox720 is further along in the development though. So the PS4 isn't as nailed down yet and still has more in a state of flux. Either that or his info on it just isn't as concrete.

 

[(((interference)))]

When I first heard about Xbox 3's I was told "1+ TFLOPs". So like I told the person, that doesn't sound very impressive compared to when I first heard about PS4's GPU (different people by the way). And he said they were still working on the GPU for Xbox 3. So that was about a month ago. I don't know have an update on PS4's progress right now.

Thanks for that, well, that also matches the rumours that AMD recently finished working on the PS4 and are concentrating on Durango now.

And yeah I think PS4 is pretty much set at whatever they plan it to be other than determining the memory amount. I see Sony keeping tighter control over costs

Ok, so the PS4 seems closer to being final specs (other than RAM). This is also in keeping with rumours that they want to launch first.

And the tighter cost control makes complete sense if you look at their commercial situation .

This is also why I don't see MS ceding the core audience by having a weaker machine.
Unlike Sony, they can afford to (at least) match Orbis' relatively conservative specs (it's no PS2/3) so why wouldn't they?

 

[(((interference)))]

Lherre also seems to hint that the Xbox720 is further along in the development though. So the PS4 isn't as nailed down yet and still has more in a state of flux. Either that or his info on it just isn't as concrete.

It could be further along in developlement in the way that they've been working to similar specs (in terms of cores, RAM etc) outlined in that leak (which dates back to 2010) wheras the PS4 is a more recent design (perhaps Sony were previously considering Cell or something) and they're still tossing up between Jaguar or steamroller cores and 2GB or 4GB of RAM.

Either way, it can be true that most of the 720 is quite final and also that the GPU is still not finalised and AMD is working on a more customised part for the shipping product.