Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[Grall]

But what about profits? Wouldn't that be the thing they will look at.

Profits can dwindle really quick if the sales dry up.

 

[anexanhume]

Hardware and software sales both are plummeting though, I suspect there's a little nervousness at both MS and Sony HQ.

This is June 2012, we're looking to Nov 2013, so that's a lot more slow months to come. I dont see Nov 13 as too early.

Everybody talks price drops, which is true, but I wonder at this point if "profit center" MS isn't waiting for the major Oban/361/whatever redesign to do anything. Sony lost how many billions early in the gen? I think they're in profit mode too.

Plus, you're underestimating the lead time involved. Sony cant just up and decide to launch a month after MS if they haven't already been planning it for ages, doesn't work that way. Hardware redesigns are measured in months and years. The only way Sony can decide to launch a month after Xbox on short notice is if the console is done, millions are already manufactured and sitting in warehouses in the USA just waiting for the go ahead. Boat freight from China alone takes 8+ weeks (alternative is air shipping, much more expensive)

Frankly I imagine the hardware is getting somewhat locked down right now, for a late 13 launch.

You're assuming I'm talking about redesigning hardware. I'm talking about sitting on finished hardware to let component prices go down by ordering later and letting software in development mature. 360 and PS3 both had very weak software launch lineups.

 

[SKYSONY]

I expect both the next gen consoles to suffer the same upgrade 360 did between the dev kits and the final hard:

http://www.gamespot.com/forums/topi...-devkit-rumors-vs-2012-xbox-720-devkit-rumors

 

[Ruskie]

Dev kits are one thing, and target specs are another. The reason why MS had 9800pro in 2004, than Ati 800xt in crossfire was because there wasn't graphics card fast enough to emulate what was targeted for retail console.

This time Sony can just put underclocked Pitcairn in dev kit to emulate card that will be in retail product, since that card is somewhere in ballpark with what they are going to end up with although Iherre said those dev kits were one year old.

 

[(((interference)))]

There´s a guy in GAF who has posted this:

XBOX720 has:

• stronger CPU
• slightly weaker GPU
• more RAM (8GB?), but slower?
• stronger CPU and RAM may be more towards being a Windows 8 box?

PS4 has:

• weaker CPU
• slightly stronger GPU
• less RAM (2GB, maybe 4GB at max), but faster?

According to bgassassin it´s a good early summary.


I´m to starting to be doubtful about the rumors tha claimed the Xbox was gonna be more powerful than the Sony system. All the latest sign are pointing to an Xbiix, a much more casual game console than the 360.

Well, to me, that seems to indicate that the 360 will be more powerful than the PS3.
More RAM, more powerful CPU with only a slightly weaker GPU.

 

[Ruskie]

Well, to me, that seems to indicate that the 360 will be more powerful than the PS3.
More RAM, more powerful CPU with only a slightly weaker GPU.

Not if one is 1.86 TF and another is 1.1 TF on GPU side.

 

[N2O]

don't think xbox 3 only have 1.1 TF GPU

 

[bgassassin]

Not if one is 1.86 TF and another is 1.1 TF on GPU side.

Yeah. I didn't pay attention to the "slightly" part of that summary.

 

[(((interference)))]

Not if one is 1.86 TF and another is 1.1 TF on GPU side.

Slightly implies more like 1.6 TF vs 1.8 rather than 1.1TF vs 1.8..
And I doubt MS will go with a significantly weaker GPU; it would just make the system unbalanced.

 

[Brimstone]

If I'm honest I think all rumours and leaks so far are a load of crap...they change all the time..someone has got to be wrong.

Yeah.

Some many odd things. Next Xbox rumored to be called Durango and nVidia having Project Denver. Why the Colorado references?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Well, to me, that seems to indicate that the 360 will be more powerful than the PS3.
More RAM, more powerful CPU with only a slightly weaker GPU.

My immediate reaction was 8Gbs versus 2GBs would leave Sony at a massive disadvantage. But then is PS4 is with a fast SSD and XB3 isn't, having 2GBs VRAM and 6 Gbs DDR, maybe it wouldn't be so bad. It'd still give developers a lot to worry about though.

 

[AlNom]

Just some questions to throw out there for consideration:

What are the implications to engines/tools etc, data and memory consumption (pointers etc) when moving to 64-bit ? Yes, there is overhead, but how what would that mean overall?

What will this mean for portability (cost/work) to other consoles that are not 64-bit (if a game even uses more than 4GB)? *ahem*

 

[lefizz]

Dice recently said that some frostbite engine games will require windows 64 in 2013.

 

[MarkoIt]

https://maps.google.it/maps?hl=it&a...=it&ei=-S_oT9uiA-mO4gS7mqnWAQ&ved=0CDoQ8gEwBA

There is a city named Yukon in Oklahoma and it has a street named Durango.. mm

http://autos.aol.com/cars-compare?v...C0&v3=USC20CHS111A0&v4=USC20JES051C0&type=top

Yukon is a GMC SUV and Durango is a Dodge SUV. They look even similar.

 

[AlNom]

Dice recently said that some frostbite engine games will require windows 64 in 2013.

Thanks, but... that doesn't address the questions directly on the technical level....

 

[MarkoIt]

There´s a guy in GAF who has posted this:

XBOX720 has:

• stronger CPU
• slightly weaker GPU
• more RAM (8GB?), but slower?
• stronger CPU and RAM may be more towards being a Windows 8 box?

PS4 has:

• weaker CPU
• slightly stronger GPU
• less RAM (2GB, maybe 4GB at max), but faster?

According to bgassassin it´s a good early summary.


I´m to starting to be doubtful about the rumors tha claimed the Xbox was gonna be more powerful than the Sony system. All the latest sign are pointing to an Xbiix, a much more casual game console than the 360.

If it's like this, Xbox would be more powerful. 4x times the RAM is almost a generational leap ahead, even if the GPU is slightly slower. If the Xbox's GPU is considerably slower (for half the speed), games would look a lot different on the 2 platform.
We have also to consider that according to the rumors, PS4's GPU is an APU and its bandwidth is shared with the CPU. That may starve the system, so the raw performance won't matter that much.

Well, so what about eDRAM? It was listed on the Yukon architecture sheet..
How much would be a good amount?

 

[Brimstone]

https://maps.google.it/maps?hl=it&a...=it&ei=-S_oT9uiA-mO4gS7mqnWAQ&ved=0CDoQ8gEwBA

There is a city named Yukon in Oklahoma and it has a street named Durango.. mm

http://autos.aol.com/cars-compare?v...C0&v3=USC20CHS111A0&v4=USC20JES051C0&type=top

Yukon is a GMC SUV and Durango is a Dodge SUV. They look even similar.

Years ago Micron had Yukon which was a PIM (Process in Memory) design. IBM also had Blue Gene Cyclops a PIM design as well. Since both IBM and Micron are working on Hybrid Memory Cube maybe they are working on something together with roots to the PIM research.

 

[SKYSONY]

If it's like this, Xbox would be more powerful. 4x times the RAM is almost a generational leap ahead, even if the GPU is slightly slower. If the Xbox's GPU is considerably slower (for half the speed), games would look a lot different on the 2 platform.
We have also to consider that according to the rumors, PS4's GPU is an APU and its bandwidth is shared with the CPU. That may starve the system, so the raw performance won't matter that much.

Well, so what about eDRAM? It was listed on the Yukon architecture sheet..
How much would be a good amount?

I highly doubt Sony is makink such a weak hardware. Mind the last one they have created, PS Vita, is very powerful for a portable device. Hence, there is no reason to believe the PS4 will be such a low powered machine.

Plus, bgassassin seems to believe the Xbox 3 won´t be more powerful than the PS4, he may knows the final PS4 specs.

 

[(((interference)))]

My immediate reaction was 8Gbs versus 2GBs would leave Sony at a massive disadvantage. But then is PS4 is with a fast SSD and XB3 isn't, having 2GBs VRAM and 6 Gbs DDR, maybe it wouldn't be so bad. It'd still give developers a lot to worry about though.

Agree that the PS4 having a SSD would even things out - have there been any rumours suggesting as much?

I also think that it's quite possible the 720 GPU is just placeholder rather than being indicative of the capabilities of the final chip (as was the case with 360 dev kits). IIRC there was a recent rumour that AMD had finished work on the PS4 chip and was concentrating on Durango. This also ties in with rumours than Sony wants to be first to market this time around.

A concern I had for the 720 was that MS will use much of the extra CPU and RAM resources for non-game processing, ie Kinect, or to run a far less lean (Windows 8 based) OS in the background with always on Skype, DVR & smart glass/media streaming functionality etc.

Though, the Yukon architecture from the leak document did have 2 dedicated cores & Xenos dedicated to the OS (along with dual DTV decoders and HD encoders) so maybe that won't be an issue. Unless of course they've since decided to cut costs and not have so many processing units - however the Yukon architecture from the leak does seem to match current rumours of the 720 being 'weird' and 'batshit crazy' so perhaps they haven't.

However, all said I don't think MS is going to disappoint in the end - they seem rather bullish on the hardware and consumer electronics front of late, even moreso than they were back in 2005. Products like the Surface tablet may hint that they're not going to come out with anything less than a class leader.

Yes, sure they're going to spend a lot of resources courting the casual audience (as shown in the leak), but I still don't see them conceding the core audience to Sony; especially not when they're in such a weak position and seem to be going for far more conservative tech this time around.

I mean, why would they? Sure, profitability might have to take a small hit for a year or so, but if they have the most powerful machine (or at least lineball with the PS4, as the 360 was) as well as the one with broadest general consumer appeal and the deepest ecosystem (which they should have with Kinect, DVR/smart glass functionality, Fortaleza and the Windows 8/Surface/Windows Phone synergies) then they are set to dominate the eighth generation.

Barring of course any disruptive changes in the market similar to the Wii this gen, like an Apple console or something.

 

[(((interference)))]

I highly doubt Sony is makink such a weak hardware. Mind the last one they have created, PS Vita, is very powerful for a portable device. Hence, there is no reason to believe the PS4 will be such a low powered machine.

Plus, bgassassin seems to believe the Xbox 3 won´t be more powerful than the PS4, he may knows the final PS4 specs.

Actually the PS Vita is somewhat conservative (for a Sony console), it relies mostly on off the shelf parts and the iPad 3 is basically as powerful.

And while bgassassin seems to think so, he also seems to think we're all underestimating the Wii U's capabilities. Don't forget that iherre who's also a developer on GAF seems to think the 720 is the most powerful. (I don't know what each of their roles are, but bgassassin seems to pass on info he gets from the engineers/programmers while iherre seems to more state things as facts, so maybe he's closer to the technical side of things - or just pretending he is )

Iherre's position also matches the general tone of rumours about the 720 vs PS4. And is supported by IGN's survey of 35 developers on their thoughts on the next gen consoles:

From a hardware perspective, nearly 80% of respondents said Microsoft’s next console is the easiest to work with, and the overwhelming majority suspect it will be the sales leader over the next five years.

http://au.ign.com/articles/2012/06/01/the-next-generation-according-to-game-developers

It also makes complete sense if you think of the two companies respective positions with Sony on a clear back foot - this isn't the Sony under Kutaragi.