Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[SKYSONY]

Actually the PS Vita is somewhat conservative (for a Sony console), it relies mostly on off the shelf parts and the iPad 3 is basically as powerful.

And while bgassassin seems to think so, he also seems to think we're all underestimating the Wii U's capabilities. Don't forget that iherre who's also a developer on GAF seems to think the 720 is the most powerful. (I don't know what each of their roles are, but bgassassin seems to pass on info he gets from the engineers/programmers while iherre seems to more state things as facts, so maybe he's closer to the technical side of things - or just pretending he is )

Iherre's position also matches the general tone of rumours about the 720 vs PS4. And is supported by IGN's survey of 35 developers on their thoughts on the next gen consoles:

http://au.ign.com/articles/2012/06/01/the-next-generation-according-to-game-developers

It also makes complete sense if you think of the two companies respective positions with Sony on a clear back foot - this isn't the Sony under Kutaragi.

Hmmm. I think I agree with what you say. It´s true lherre seems to know more about next-gen tech. You probably don´t know, but he is Spanish, as myself. He uses to post more on a spanish forum I´m member too than on GAF, he´s a telematic engineer. He nailed the specs of the Wii U.

Regarding Sony, I´m far from being a tech expert. But, from what I know, I can see the current Sony strategy relies more of the tech available than on Kutaragi´s era, when Sony almost developed everything.

MS making the easiest to work with system doesn´t have to mean it is the most powerful one. I believe MS is gonna follow the same path than with the 360 (final specs way ahead of the dev kits).

 

[ultragpu]

Actually the PS Vita is somewhat conservative (for a Sony console), it relies mostly on off the shelf parts and the iPad 3 is basically as powerful.

And while bgassassin seems to think so, he also seems to think we're all underestimating the Wii U's capabilities. Don't forget that iherre who's also a developer on GAF seems to think the 720 is the most powerful. (I don't know what each of their roles are, but bgassassin seems to pass on info he gets from the engineers/programmers while iherre seems to more state things as facts, so maybe he's closer to the technical side of things - or just pretending he is )

Iherre's position also matches the general tone of rumours about the 720 vs PS4. And is supported by IGN's survey of 35 developers on their thoughts on the next gen consoles:

http://au.ign.com/articles/2012/06/01/the-next-generation-according-to-game-developers

It also makes complete sense if you think of the two companies respective positions with Sony on a clear back foot - this isn't the Sony under Kutaragi.

From what I've read on Gaf, bgassassin seems to disagree with iherre in regards to the power difference of PS4 and 720, I really don't know who's opinion is the most reliable but personally if there's a 1.8TF gpu in PS4 compared to the 1.1TF in 720 then wouldn't that make PS4's game almost twice as good looking as 720's in some aspects? But of course the ram difference is rather debatable right now with some rumor seems to suggest Sony has already shifted to 4g GDDR5, CPU wise I heard both consoles are going to get Jaguar cores, so in the end if this is how it can remotely play out, I think PS4 is gonna have a rather sizable advantage. Of course we still don't know if MS is settling with a 1.1TF gpu either. Maybe bgassassin can correct a few things here too?

 

[Kaotik]

Hmmm. I think I agree with what you say. It´s true lherre seems to know more about next-gen tech. You probably don´t know, but he is Spanish, as myself. He uses to post more on a spanish forum I´m member too than on GAF, he´s a telematic engineer. He nailed the specs of the Wii U.

How exactly did he "nail the specs of the Wii U" when we don't actually know what's in there, besides IBM made CPU and AMD made GPU?

 

[SKYSONY]

How exactly did he "nail the specs of the Wii U" when we don't actually know what's in there, besides IBM made CPU and AMD made GPU?

There were rumors on another forums sayin the Wii U was gonna have 6 Gb of RAM, Radeon 6000/7000 and CPU with 4 or 6 cores. We always claimed the console would have 3 cores, a Radeon 4000 and less than 2 Gb of RAM, he almost bet about it with another forumer.

 

[french toast]

Like I said I don't k ow whether I believe the specs mentioned, we have gone from a 6 core ppc 2gb ram and hd 6670 to a supercomputer in a matter of months.

So I won't comment on rumour specs or wish lists unless there is a genuine new development, all I will add is that we have gone past the days where the most powerfull console wins, I think they will both play identical ports of each other except a handfull of 1st party...even then graphics differences are going to be negligible.

What is going to make the difference is the extra functionality, the new gaming experiences and how it all fits into your computing eco system.

If Microsoft is really going to be ambitious and the rumours are true about full windows 8 integration, and some proper dedicated processing for things like kinect 2..then that looks to be the favourite going forward.

I also gather Sony will head along the same route with full android integration and some kinect controller copy, in fact I could see both Sony and Microsoft trying to copy nintemdo again with their controller.

I'm hedging my bets that both consoles will offer an identical experience on every level, you will just pick your preferred echo system.

 

[AlNom]

What is going to make the difference is the extra functionality, the new gaming experiences and how it all fits into your computing eco system.

I was just thinking how awesome it would be if there were a universal record/encode/upload-to-youtube type of feature handled by the OS kind of like how there's already a universal party chat (take it out of the hands of developers). Basically, hit the guide button to access the feature (which starts recording on returning to the game and ends after some allotted time or when you hit guide button again). Maybe it could use the VCE (Video Codec Engine) introduced in Southern Islands Not sure how it'd work though.

edit:

VCE supposedly can do 1080p60 @ >real-time when leveraging shaders. Wonder if VCE by itself could handle normal real-time using input from the game's framebuffer. Also wonder how that might (or might not) work if there actually is a dedicated GPU array for the OS.

hm... don't know about RAM or HDD reqs though...

 

[Mianca]

I'm hedging my bets that both consoles will offer an identical experience on every level, you will just pick your preferred echo system.

I actually don't think that processing power as a whole will be as important for next-gen consoles as it is for the current gen.

Modern games basically reached a point where the impact of further graphical enhancements on gameplay isn't that big anymore. I'd even go as far as saying that modern games look "good enough" from a technical point of view - and that the balance of what really makes a game visually impressive shifted heavily from powerful hardware and clever engine programming towards good and well done art style.

What I'm trying to say is that when you go from ~500 polys per character to ~5000 polys per character model, the visual difference is genuinely huge (e.g. fingerless guards in HL1 vs. main characters in HL2). Beyond that, subjectively descernible improvements get way more subtle - and the art aspect of things gets way more important. Similar arguments could be made with respect to lighting, textures, etc.

I.e. given that we've reached a certain point of technical saturation, having four times the exclusive content will be way more important than having four times the processing power or RAM compared to the competition.

When it comes to games, the one field that really seems to have a lot of room for technical enhancements left is computational flexibility - and that aspect should be coverd by HSA.

 

[french toast]

I was just thinking how awesome it would be if there were a universal record/encode/upload-to-youtube type of feature handled by the OS kind of like how there's already a universal party chat (take it out of the hands of developers). Basically, hit the guide button to access the feature (which starts recording on returning to the game and ends after some allotted time or when you hit guide button again). Maybe it could use the VCE (Video Codec Engine) introduced in Southern Islands Not sure how it'd work though.

Ha! Now we're talking. Yea the ability to use it like a pc (ish) download some hd vids, whilst recording your favourite program and have a skype chat whilst dancing round the room in god of war 6 or halo 13

 

[Prophecy2k]

I actually don't think that processing power as a whole will be as important for next-gen consoles as it is for the current gen.

Console processing power will always be important becuase the games industry is an industry saturated with "Fanboy" culture. You will still have flame wars between juveniles on internet forums proclaiming their console of choice the best because it get 0.05 extra fps in COD#28281. You'll also still have media outlets and gaming press writing sensationalist and hyperbolic articles about all three consoles and their games, in attempts to provide fuel for the ongoing console wars so as to assure a copious amount of hits to their websites. Tis the inevitable conclusion no matter what goes into the next-gen consoles

On a more serious note however, I'd be intrigued to know more about the software strategy Sony has (assuming we pretty much know what MS is gunning for). It'll be an interesting generation for sure.

 

[Rangers]

How exactly did he "nail the specs of the Wii U" when we don't actually know what's in there, besides IBM made CPU and AMD made GPU?

He didn't "nail the specs", not like he could without violating some serious NDAage (whether he knew them or not). But he has pretty consistently downplayed the Wii U power (remember, in the face of a neogaf Nintendo fan attitude where they constantly pump it up) and so far, has been right on.

From what I've read on Gaf, bgassassin seems to disagree with iherre in regards to the power difference of PS4 and 720, I really don't know who's opinion is the most reliable but personally if there's a 1.8TF gpu in PS4 compared to the 1.1TF in 720 then wouldn't that make PS4's game almost twice as good looking as 720's in some aspects? But of course the ram difference is rather debatable right now with some rumor seems to suggest Sony has already shifted to 4g GDDR5, CPU wise I heard both consoles are going to get Jaguar cores, so in the end if this is how it can remotely play out, I think PS4 is gonna have a rather sizable advantage. Of course we still don't know if MS is settling with a 1.1TF gpu either. Maybe bgassassin can correct a few things here too?

Supposedly 1-1.5 TF GPU in Durango, that's a pretty big spread, vs PS4's 1.8. If it's 1.5, that falls in the realm of pretty close. If it's 1.0, that's nearing half.

Maybe others know more but I havent heard anything more exact on Durango GPU. If it's a Cape Verde though, would be hard to get to 1.5 as the full 612 SP@1ghz 7770 is 1.28 TF. And you would think they might both clock it lower for heat, and take out some SP's for redundancy. But then again maybe it's something custom with an extra CU or 3 in there.

For 4GB in PS4, again I havent heard anything like that, unless BG wants to weigh in I put that in the realm of wishful thinking turns into rumors turns into we pretend it's confirmed (and I saw a LOT of that with Wii U...)

There's also that rumor, very unconfirmed AFAIK, that Durango holds 3GB for the OS. If true, then that obviously leaves only 5GB for game.


Also, lherre and BG fully agree on Durango V Orbis from what I know...though in the past I think lherre was making noises Durango was the clear leader, it's become more nuanced now.

I think there's a lot of confusion from some reply where people though lherre equated Durango=high end PC, Orbis=mid, Wii U=low, but IIRC he said nothing about Durango/Orbis comparatively.

 

[aaronspink]

What are the implications to engines/tools etc, data and memory consumption (pointers etc) when moving to 64-bit ? Yes, there is overhead, but how what would that mean overall?

Generally pretty minor.

What will this mean for portability (cost/work) to other consoles that are not 64-bit (if a game even uses more than 4GB)? *ahem*

If a console isn't 64b and the game is built using a memory model that requires >32b address then it can be pretty painful.

But in general that shouldn't be an issue as all the next gen consoles will be 64b and PCs are already pretty much 64b.

 

[Nesh]

On a more serious note however, I'd be intrigued to know more about the software strategy Sony has (assuming we pretty much know what MS is gunning for). It'll be an interesting generation for sure.

Ooooooh its gonna be brutal thats for sure
With so many other aspects involved in the strategy that did not exist before such as media/apps/cross functional integration etc and investment on new UI and input methods that each company is uncertain about what the competition will come up with, its gonna be nasty.
It is uncertain how WiiU will do with the current hardware and how the consumer will respond to its controller and performance, its uncertain how Sony will respond to competition and how many areas they can cover considering their current financial position, and MS is trying to attack from all fronts.
I am pretty sure Sony is stressed right now not knowing what kind of performance they should target and what features they should implement when MS obviously has the power to come up with something big and they are putting the pieces together for an all in one entertainment device

 

[french toast]

I definitely think they will be closely aligned just like previous gen, it cant be a coincidence that they will release at the same time?

For Sony lots obviously going to be a skinned android to match vita/play/xperia which I think will be a really good platform to work off.

By next year I would not be surprised if both ps360 were at the exact same sales score...and next gen will be identical.

 

[babybumb]

http://kotaku.com/5920931/the-wii-us-power-problem

Industry tech insider: "After the next generation of machines come out, Wii U will be a performance orphan." "It will be closer in performance to the next iPad than the next-gen machines. "

The situation Kotaku industry sources foresee, will be a repeat of the Wii's worst problems in the current generation of consoles. Nintendo's Wii U, they note, does at least have enough muscle to disguise its shortcomings for a year or so.

These insiders themselves cannot assess the Wii U's power with 100% accuracy because the might of a console is the product of multiple factors. Judged by its RAM, the Wii U could be viewed as up to four times as powerful as the Xbox 360, boasting as much as 2GB of RAM to the 360's 512. But one insider who has had access to the machine says that the console's impressive AMD Radeon-based graphics chip is off-set by a CPU that runs at low speeds, can do out-of-order processing but has fewer threads than the 360. The insider says the Wii U has the power to run Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 ports with little difficulty. But they predict trouble when major third-party companies start producing games for the next Xbox and PlayStation, which will be about 6-8 times more powerful than the current 360 and PS3 according to several Kotaku sources who are aware of Sony and Microsft's plans for those machines.

Called it months ago.. iPad 4 is huge jump with Rogue

 

[McHuj]

I have a question for anyone familiar with current 360 development. Is the 360 bandwidth constrained? (Obviously, everyone always wants more, but is it a major hurdle in development?)

The reason I ask, is that I keep thinking about the DDR3/4 for the next xbox. Assume it maintains a 128-bit bus and (from the Micron press release) the DDR4 rate it 3.2 Gbps, that results in a BW of 51.2 GB/s from system ram to CPU/GPU. The 360 has a BW of 22.4 GB/s.

Now, granted another assumption, the CPU is at least 4X as power power (2X the number of cores, improved IPC, and improved number crunching throughput) and the GPU raw flop wise is at least 4X. I don't see how a bandwidth of 51.2 GB/s from main memory would be able to feed this system efficiently.

So I think if MS is using slow memory, they'll have to have a fat bus (256-bit), but that will hurt cost future reductions, I believe, as it will require min 8 ram chips (each 32-bit IO). Or 128-bit bus plus some sort of buffer, either on chip eDRAM (64 MB shared between GPU/CPU in the form of a L3 cache) or maybe some sort of innovative dram (128-256 MB) on interposer buffer with a very fast BW (128-256 GB/s) for the GPU. Thoughts?

 

[AlNom]

I have a question for anyone familiar with current 360 development. Is the 360 bandwidth constrained? (Obviously, everyone always wants more, but is it a major hurdle in development?)

I do recall a lot of complaints/gotchas/concerns surrounding texture fetches (so "yes"). They could go with larger texture caches on the GPU to mitigate that issue though (fewer requests to go and hit main memory).

It would certainly help a lot if devs could read from eDRAM instead of having to resolve to main memory and then access said textures/buffers there too.

 

[french toast]

Alstrong: was the daughter die edram not of a usable size to cope with the textures? Or was it that xenos did not have full access?

 

[N2O]

actually i don't really think PS4/nextbox's GPU will base on 7xxx tech,especially nextbox,i think nextbox will use (at least part of)DirectX 12

 

[cteam]

i agree with n20
MS has financial advantage
have live revenue stream

previous track record have custom GPU

rumor
16 core
8GB

i think 56 page leak is very old,

latest leak xbox surface (seem old too)
http://currenteditorials.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/xbox-surface-specs1.jpg
12 core:2 custom PPC (6 core per PPC)

now another tech sheet surfaced
http://currenteditorials.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/xbox-surface-specs2.jpg
still 12 core
look at GPU detailed spec
384 bit, 1100 SP, Core 1.15, Mem 1.5 Ghz
Occlusion Driven DX 11

also recently russion site give rumor
http://misterxmedia.livejournal.com/

but maybe because this russian this site seems
overlooked and mostly because for most
still believing xbox 720 weaker than ps4
people only check 1st page of this live journal site
but acctually he already give insider info since 2010
-he mention smartglass, long before E3
-mentioning ms still flip flop AMD/PPC
-mentioning AMD using arm for security (Probably true)
this is probably MS at the end choose AMD
-mentioniong Stacked technology
-16 core- 64 total thread for xbox 720
-Watch Dog actually running on 720, (look at smartglass idea)
-BF3 xbxo 720 version is better than PC Ultra etc
-GPU for 720 are targetting 8970 (this is why ms going back to drawing board)
at first ms targetting 6-8x (IGN rumor)
-then MS targetting 12x at minimal, 8970 performace
DX firmware update
-recent developer survey, match with latest rumor 720 is a beast
-dump BC and xenon PPC as 2010 document to add more power to
GPU, CPU budget and memory
-have expanded memory capacity

l

 

[DoctorFouad]

actually i don't really think PS4/nextbox's GPU will base on 7xxx tech,especially nextbox,i think nextbox will use (at least part of)DirectX 12

the problem is that directx12 wont probably be out for a long time (2014 ?) + I doubt it would be as a generational leap compared to its predecessor as directx11 was to directx10, or directx9 was to directx8.

someone in this forum talked about ps3-xbox360 being unfortunately at the wrong timeline technology wise (a period of major technology shift) resulting on both consoles being hugely underpowered. I dont agree with this statement for xbox360, it was a perfect timeline for that cnsole at that period (fall 2005) : directx9 feature set, unified shaders, multi core-multi threaded CPU, GDDR....etc

But I do agree for ps3 which was released in the US in fall 2006, but was available in europe only in march 2007. the ps3 even missed the unified shaders revolution, and ended up with an outdated GPU the day of its release with the arrival of the revolutionary Geforce8. And if xbox360's 512 Mb of RAM + 10 Mb of edram can still be positively compared to PCs of 2005. the 512 Mb of ps3 in 2006-2007 were simply outdated ridicoulously low specifications compared to PCs of that time.

all of this showed clearly in software : the first multiplatform ps3 games were horrible compared to their xbox360 counterparts (If I remember correctly fifa or madden was running at 30 fps on ps3 without anti aliasing, and at 60 fps with 4x MSAA on xbox 360 ! it was shocking at that time ! ). But more importanlty xbox360 enjoyed the most technically advanced and graphically stunning (the first proper next gen title on the market) : gears of war. More advanced than anything PC could offer in 2006. That wasent the case of ps3 : not only geforce 8 came but also Crysis happened, making the ps3 technically obsolete almost the day of its release in europe, not even enjoying 1 year of superiority VS PC a la xbox360 (in terms of software)....

so xbox360 was technically released in a perfect timeline and technological transition, nothing was missing (except maybe Blu Ray, and more or less a standard HDD). This wasent the case for ps3. what aout ps4-nextxbox ? I believe at least one of the two manufacturers can repeat the microsoft feat realized with the xbox360. I bet on sony this time despite the fact of their financial difficulties, with kinect apparently microsoft is going more or less the mainstream casual risky route. Add to this the taent of sony developers : just imagine what could naughty dog realize in 2013 for uncharted 4 with 4 GB of GDDR5 and a state of the art ATI 2 Tflops modern GPU (jaws dropping), or just imagine what kazunori yamauchi can do wen running its GT5 properly with all the high rez models and textures, full rez transparencies and at 1080p with 4X MSAA with stable 60 fps (I ant even imagine the result in my head lol it would be so photo realistic)