Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[Acert93]

Shocking alberto, who even I know is some sort of credible shadowy GAF insider (though, dont ask me any details cause I have no idea ), posted this about Microsoft's next gen, grain of salt

As much as I hope that is true I feel as if this could be one of those cruel, baiting, tell fans what they want to hear so you can crush their souls later type of rumor drops

 

[Rangers]

A "traditional generation leap", lets assume ~10X, is not even very impressive coming 8 years between consoles, vs the normal 5, or in Xbox-360 case only 4. But I guess it is better than what we have been conditioned to expect (with no real evidence though).

Of course there is tons of leeway in that statement. Could mean from maybe 7X to 14X+ and still be true.

 

[Proelite]

As much as I hope that is true I feel as if this could be one of those cruel, baiting, tell fans what they want to hear so you can crush their souls later type of rumor drops

Except he was posting in an exclusively Wii-U thread, and crushed primarily the souls of Nintendo "paritists (parity people)".

Given MS's fickle nature, it shouldn't surprise people if the next rumors come out stating MS has drastically cut back on the specs.

 

[Brad Grenz]

It could potentially be a mangling/confusion of the spec. I don't think you'd get a CPU that's capable of 1.2 Tflops. Assume that you have 8 cores running at 3 GHz, each core would have to be able to issue 50 flops per cycle to reach 1.2 Tflops (1200/3/8=50) so that's unrealistic imo.

However, if the CPU is an actually an APU and 1.2 Tflops is the total processing power of the CPU+GPU, that not unreasonable and very likely as that's seems to be the aim of future AMD APU's.

A lot of these rumors are like the old kids game of telephone where the message starts as one thing and by the time it's passed through the room it's completely different.


So if I had to reasonably guess, we'd see both next gen consoles as SOC solutions:

Xbox:IBM 8 core PPC with AMD GPU combined 1.2 Tflops
PS: AMD 4 core x86 with AMD GPU for a combined ~1 Tflop of so.

In the end probably not much difference in GPU performance. I could see MS taking away a core or two for the OS/Kinect.

Yeah, the 1.2 TFlop figure only makes sense if they're adding GPU flops into it. In that case it fits pretty well with the single chip "Oban" and 6670 level GPU rumors we've already heard. Despite the pastebin author's clear anti-Sony agenda, that doesn't actually paint a picture of a huge advantage for MS. For all we know he's misrepresenting the RAM and hard drive situations on purpose, or out of ignorance like with the 4 core, 32 bit CPU thing. (is it 4 cores or 4 modules? Bulldozer has changed the way we count this stuff. I'd bet on 8 threads, which is more like an octo-core.)

We also know very little about the size of these chips. For all we know the Orbis GPU is targeting a lot more shader hardware, could have on package or interposer connected VRAM, etc. There's no reason to believe RAM and hard drive decisions are final either, on either side.

 

[Proelite]

Yeah, the 1.2 TFlop figure only makes sense if they're adding GPU flops into it. In that case it fits pretty well with the single chip "Oban" and 6670 level GPU rumors we've already heard. Despite the pastebin author's clear anti-Sony agenda, that doesn't actually paint a picture of a huge advantage for MS. For all we know he's misrepresenting the RAM and hard drive situations on purpose, or out of ignorance like with the 4 core, 32 bit CPU thing. (is it 4 cores or 4 modules? Bulldozer has changed the way we count this stuff. I'd bet on 8 threads, which is more like an octo-core.)

We also know very little about the size of these chips. For all we know the Orbis GPU is targeting a lot more shader hardware, could have on package or interposer connected VRAM, etc. There's no reason to believe RAM and hard drive decisions are final either, on either side.

1.2 Tflops in total doesn't fall in line with the traditional generational leap that MS is targeting though, if the neogaf insider's words are to be believed.

 

[jlippo]

In SP Floats the 1.2TF number is very low, especially if CPU&GPU are combined..
It would basically be a radeon HD6750 with a weak CPU.

I'm hoping for something a lot more powerful..

 

[Brad Grenz]

1.2 Tflops in total doesn't fall in line with the traditional generational leap that MS is targeting though, if the neogaf insider's words are to be believed.

The current rumors out there don't always agree with one another. One thing's pretty certain, though, 1.2 TFlops for CPU alone is simply unbelievable unless you think MS is using Knight's Corner, a 48 SPE Cell or one of IBM's monstrous multi-module Power 7/8 packages. In any of those cases you can kiss "ease of development" and/or affordability goodbye. None of those scenarios seems very likely, so the pastebin specs are either rubbish, in which case we should discount everything it says about both systems, or he's quoted a combined figure, which actually matches previous rumors, in which case we may have to discount any suggestion that the new Xbox will be a "traditional generational leap".

 

[Rangers]

Except he was posting in an exclusively Wii-U thread, and crushed primarily the souls of Nintendo "paritists (parity people)".

Given MS's fickle nature, it shouldn't surprise people if the next rumors come out stating MS has drastically cut back on the specs.

Fickle nature?

It's funny people attribute Sony as the high end hardware guys, but in reality if anything the evidence points more to MS as being in that role. EG, obviously the Xbox, and even the 360, for it's time frame was arguably more cutting edge than the PS3, that is how it managed to come out a full year earlier yet still achieve relative technical parity.

Just look at it this way: Xbox: one year after PS2, same time as gamecube, much more powerful than both.

360: One year earlier than PS3 and Wii, relative parity with PS3, vastly more power than Wii.

So you see that relative to release date, MS has had a large edge both times.

People see PS3 as this exotic super tech beast because of Cell and Blu Ray I guess, but those things dont really matter, what would have mattered was half a GB more RAM or a better GPU, those things would have impressed me, not the former.

 

[Rangers]

In SP Floats the 1.2TF number is very low, especially if CPU&GPU are combined..
It would basically be a radeon HD6750 with a weak CPU.

Yes, the author clearly meant that

The X-Box 3 is going to have an 8-core 64-bit processor (assumedly an i7 or similar design) rated at 1.2 Teraflops

I think that it totally does make sense that Sony came in with a low spec console, and Epic and others dont like the baseline for multiplats it will set, and that explains the kvetching. This is only a theory mind you.

At the end of the day though Sony makes the strategic decisions on their console, not Epic. If they decided they want to compete more on price than power, Epic has no say in it, it's a valid strategy. 2GB is not bad anyway, read this thread long enough you will think (at least regards to Xbox) we will get no bump at all, while all kinds of fancy interposers, 3D stacking, and out there stuff are considered viable discussion for PS4 at the same time, which makes no sense, as if somehow Sony has none of the cost pressures we're all supposed to think limit MS from doing anything. Which is even more backwards when you look at the bank accounts of the respective companies. This all ESPECIALLY applies if they are both launching at 2013 as the most credible latest rumors suggest.

One thing's for sure, if the 2013 rumor is true and it certainly seems plausible by the next gen playstation developer job listings lately (here are a couple), none of this interposer, etc stuff is going to happen. Which I never expected it anyway.

 

[Love_In_Rio]

The only way MS could get a 1.2 teraflops in the CPU is going with Larrabee that would be far from 8 cores...

 

[hoho]

The only way MS could get a 1.2 teraflops in the CPU is going with Larrabee that would be far from 8 cores...

With 1024bit SIMD 8 cores at around 2.3GHz would achieve that with single-cycle FMA. Though with that wide SIMD units they are probably better off using GPU

 

[Acert93]

The only way MS could get a 1.2 teraflops in the CPU is going with Larrabee that would be far from 8 cores...

How about an 8 core APU. Llano was about 400GFLOPs, Trinity in 2012 is aiming for roughly 600GFLOPs and comes in variants with 17W ultramobile, 35W mobile, and 65-100W desktop versions. This seems to be the AMD end game where the on-die GPU and CPU can share tasks, not to mention 10GFLOPs APUs bu 2020, so why not 1.2GFLOPs in 2014-ish?? A 4 module / 8 core Bulldozer/Piledriver/Steamroller/Excavator/whatever design with a GPU hanging off the side. Heterogeneous, yes, but if they had a discrete GPU as well you have a lot of potential code sharing.

Not saying it is going to happen, or should, but that a 1.2GFLOPs CPU could very well be an APU. One of the reasons GPUs are not being used for game physics is the latency to the GPU over the PCIe bus as well as stealing from the GPU; what happens when you stick a "mini-GPU" on the CPU die with shared caches or whatnot?

That said we are more likely to see a 1.2GFLOPs APU than an APU+GPU! But considering how to use the CPU die real estate you could probably make an argument that an APU versus a straight CPU is a better choice if you are looking at longterm "squeeze as much performance out of this sucker as you can" and "Seeing as a huge amount of Cell's extra work was spent on GPU stuff, why not just lean the extra silicon to very-GPU friendly designs that can do GPU stuff even better and non-GPU tasks in a pinch."

 

[Love_In_Rio]

I am not buying the APU theory if they want a competitive console. An apu, Kavery or not, would give the raw power equivalent of a powerful laptop and PCs with GTX680s and the likes would be unreachable from day one.

 

[ultragpu]

Fickle nature?

It's funny people attribute Sony as the high end hardware guys, but in reality if anything the evidence points more to MS as being in that role. EG, obviously the Xbox, and even the 360, for it's time frame was arguably more cutting edge than the PS3, that is how it managed to come out a full year earlier yet still achieve relative technical parity.

Just look at it this way: Xbox: one year after PS2, same time as gamecube, much more powerful than both.

360: One year earlier than PS3 and Wii, relative parity with PS3, vastly more power than Wii.

So you see that relative to release date, MS has had a large edge both times.

People see PS3 as this exotic super tech beast because of Cell and Blu Ray I guess, but those things dont really matter, what would have mattered was half a GB more RAM or a better GPU, those things would have impressed me, not the former.

PS3 could also came out at the same time as Xbox360 only if Sony want the misfortune of the RROD crisis. But I think the reason why PS3 gives a fancier impression is mostly due to its first party games, especially from ND, GG and Santa Monica Studios. Regardless of the hardware capabilities, they do look noticeably better to the general public and game media. Yes, it's all subjective but they aren't too far off either.
Anyway onto nextgen, if the standard would be 1080p "most likely will be", then 2G of very fast GDDR5 would be most than enough since consoles at least PS4 shouldn't have a resource hogging Windows7. Now if basing solely on rumors, the question is can the superior 7xxx series SI in PS4 match up to the superior CPU and 2G more ram of xbox720 in total power? If it's a Pitcairn 7870 then there should be absolutely no doubt PS4 would be more powerful overall, if it's a 7750 then it's game over for Sony.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I am not buying the APU theory if they want a competitive console.

You will when you see it's an embodiment of my Grand New Future and PS Orbis is a tablet that plugs in to become your console.

 

[Acert93]

PS3 could also came out at the same time as Xbox360 only if Sony want the misfortune of the RROD crisis.

I would recommend you defend this statement with an analysis of Cell and BDR production status, RSX maturity, and general PS3 SDK availability, as well as how these things relate to the RRoD (cooling issue?).

Because as far as I can see Sony wasn't launching the PS3 as we know it in 2005. Furthermore, even if they could have, I fail to see how RRoD fits in.

 

[ultragpu]

I would recommend you defend this statement with an analysis of Cell and BDR production status, RSX maturity, and general PS3 SDK availability, as well as how these things relate to the RRoD (cooling issue?).

Because as far as I can see Sony wasn't launching the PS3 as we know it in 2005. Furthermore, even if they could have, I fail to see how RRoD fits in.

Clearly one can perceive this situation reversely as in if MS spent an extra 1 year in QA on xbox360 then chances are 33% of their launch units wouldn't be faulty of RROD. Thus launching one year early than Sony's system would be seen as pointless to answer your question.

 

[N2O]

Now if basing solely on rumors, the question is can the superior 7xxx series SI in PS4 match up to the superior CPU and 2G more ram of xbox720 in total power? If it's a Pitcairn 7870 then there should be absolutely no doubt PS4 would be more powerful overall, if it's a 7750 then it's game over for Sony.

ah,so you still think Xbox3 will use 6670...
8 core CPU,4G ram with 6670?you serious?

 

[Prophecy2k]

ah,so you still think Xbox3 will use 6670...
8 core CPU,4G ram with 6670?you serious?

Ultimately trying to find any harmony in, and putting any trust in, such a rabble of BS rumours is inane.

As of now nothing concrete is known.

 

[Rangers]

Ultimately trying to find any harmony in, and putting any trust in, such a rabble of BS rumours is inane.

As of now nothing concrete is known.

I agree in general with this. 100%. So many people seem to believe every new rumor that comes down the pike. It's a difference between discussing such rumors and seemingly treating them as fact imo. The latter is just foolish yet often done.

It does strike me that, X360 schematics leaked spring 2004. So we are about to that timeframe that if 2013 consoles are coming, now is when we may hear inklings (I doubt anything as good as schematics this time, MS leaky nature aside), and indeed things seem to be trending that way, as we now seem to know they are called Orbis and Durango for example.

So I guess I'm trying to say the later the rumor from here on, perhaps the less likely it is to be wild speculation. Certainly many of the rumors will continue to be wild speculation, but perhaps a pattern can emerge sometime going forward.

Then again may not. How tightened down Nintendo has been able to keep the Wii U is pretty scary. It's only 7 months from being on store shelves for crying out loud!

If history follows we will learn more about the XB3 first.