When you say I'm underestimating how power hungry the PS3/360 were when launched, are you talking about my estimate of ~70watt for RSX and ~50watt for Cell at 90nm?
If you are, I'll try and explain a bit further ( Though the following could have errors!)
RSX= ~70watt (A guess based on power consumption of the Cell and the Nvidia 7900GTX)
Cell= ~50watt (Based on IBM's own figures. Link:
http://realworldtech.com/page.cfm?ArticleID=RWT022508002434&p=1
BD Drive= ~10watt
HDD= ~3watt
WiFi+Bluetooth+HDMI controller etc= ~3-5watt
XDR RAM+GDDR3 VRAM ~10-15watt?
EE+GS chip ~15watt? (Not sure how much this would use or if it was "always on")
Add on PSU losses assuming 80% efficiency, and that is ~200watt "at the wall". I think that is a reasonable guess of the breakdown?
Maybe what you are saying is true, and a 90 nm RSX is a 70 watt GPU and the 90 nm CELL is a 50 watt CPU. But that is a consevrative estimate.
what we know for sure is that CELL is less than an 80 watt CPU and RSX less than 100 watt GPU, but exact estimates can only be given by sony or nvidia employees. And I have some remarks on your estimation :
1/ If we assume the wikipedia FF13 estimate is real than we are talking about a 209 watt max power consumption and not 200 watt. (and very possibly games like uncharted 3 and killzone3 would use CELL + RSX at 100% at the same time more often, which could bring max power consumption of ps3 a little bit higher, but tests are needed to verify this).
2/ it is unlikelt that EE+GS are always on (no obvious reason for this, they are not I/O a la ps1 chips in ps2) and even if they are always on, they would be running at idle doing nothing when runnin ps3 games and so consuming almost nothing.
3/ Why only 80% PSU efficiency ? the ps3 PSU is a 380 watt PSU running very comfortably a 209 watt hardware, maybe the efficiency is more than 80%.
Now Look at this thread :
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=465532
"Pitcairn (Radeon 7870) is such a good candidate for consoles"
the forumer gave good arguments
(I cite):
"
Die Size
Die size dictates the cost of manufacturing the GPU. The Pitcairn (7870) GPU is 212 mm². For reference, the Xenos (X360 GPU) is 190mm² without the daughter die and the RSX is 240mm². Remove the PC centric logic from Pitcairn; like Crossfire, Eyefinity, UVD, PCIe and it would probably be pretty close to Xenos' die size.
Power consumption
Peak power consumption is about 115W. Pitcairn is also the highest performance per watt GPU. Hardware.fr undervolted their card and managed to get a power draw of only 95W out of their card. Now take the 2GB of GDDR5 memory or 8 chips out of the equation or about 20W and the TDP of the GPU alone would be closer to 75W. "
end of citation
I believe arguing that the ps4 and xbox next wont be powerful enough at the time of their release compared to the pc world (or relatively compared to ps3/xbox360 at their respective time of release), due to technical reasons (unacceptable power consumption for a home console, too big die sizes, too much heat and too big noisy cooling systems, a need for non esthetic unacceptable bigger cases in the realm of consoles…etc) are simply wrong.
Of course there exists a possibility that ps4 or xbox next or both of them wont be as powerful at their time of release as were their predecessors ps3 and xbox360, but if that happens it would have NOTHING to do with technical difficulties and EVERYTHING to do with financial reasons. In that unfortunate scenario It would be a PURELY financial decision from sony or Microsoft (mainly not wanting to lose money on hardware, or even wanting to make a profit on hardware on day one).