Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[function]

X360 had a power brick already, so thats no problem.

How do you know it's no problem? I don't like the 360 power brick because it has to be kept in a place that a normal powerbrick doesn't. It bugs the shit out of me even more because it has a bright frikkin light on it too. Actively cooled power bricks suck ass. Put it in the damn case!

To say it's louder than launch era 360 or PS3 I'd need actual measurements of both and not, some guy said it was loud on the interwebs.

I didn't say it was louder than a launch era 360, I said the various reports I've read compare talk about it volume as either loud or diplomatically as "no louder than a PC with stock components" (which basically means "loud").

The launch era 360's were pieces of crap. The one I used - in a cold house, on a table with nothing around to restrict airflow - would max the fans out just by running the dashboard in HD. When you switched from SD you heard the fans ramp up to max in seconds. Other launch era systems I used were no quieter. Two 6cm fans spinning at about 5,000 rpm makes an awful noise. I can't see anyone releasing such a badly put together piece of hardware again.

Look at the sales jump once the 360S was released - even before Kinect it was selling much better.

Also, it's completely off the shelf, and you literally can put a modular off the shelf video card in it. So it's extremely unoptimized compared to what a console design would be.

You're the one that use it as an example of a 150W+ card in a console no problem! I think it's an example of why you don't want it and won't get it. A custom console design might do better, but at what cost? The PS3 cooler looked crazy expensive.

http://cdn3.sbnation.com/entry_photo_images/2961377/alienware-x51-main_large_verge_super_wide.jpg

It is bigger than a launch PS3, but I'm not sure who out there would be saying "the launch PS3 was fine but noway I could ever fit that gigantic Alienware under my tv!!!!!". It's shape would also be easier to deal with because it allows some stacking.

And I'm not sure who out there would be saying "the launch PS3 was too small, please give me something bigger. And add an external powerbrick please ... and while we're at it please give the launch 360 fan noise plz."

Just because some people are prepared to put up with a negative it doesn't mean that no-one cares if you make it worse!

 

[function]

When you say I'm underestimating how power hungry the PS3/360 were when launched, are you talking about my estimate of ~70watt for RSX and ~50watt for Cell at 90nm?

If you are, I'll try and explain a bit further ( Though the following could have errors!)

RSX= ~70watt (A guess based on power consumption of the Cell and the Nvidia 7900GTX)
Cell= ~50watt (Based on IBM's own figures. Link: http://realworldtech.com/page.cfm?ArticleID=RWT022508002434&p=1
BD Drive= ~10watt
HDD= ~3watt
WiFi+Bluetooth+HDMI controller etc= ~3-5watt
XDR RAM+GDDR3 VRAM ~10-15watt?
EE+GS chip ~15watt? (Not sure how much this would use or if it was "always on")

Add on PSU losses assuming 80% efficiency, and that is ~200watt "at the wall". I think that is a reasonable guess of the breakdown?

AlStrong said this about memory a little further back:

The 8 RAM chips (4 GDDR3, 4 XDR, 512Mbit) would probably be between 20 and 25W (2-3W per chip).

... so it does look like there's quite a bit of "misc" (i.e. not CPU or GPU) power used in the system. I'd expect Sony to use a more efficient PSU than MS, simply because they wanted a small internal one and because they seemed to spend more on making the system ... nice .... as opposed to just functional.

 

[TheWretched]

Well... the PSU does run at around 50% - 60% peak when PS3 is under load. I'd say with proper optimization you can get a lot more than my proposed 80% efficiency out of that. It's a good thing that they did put such a big safety barrier into the system, too. Letting the PSU always run at peak reduces its longevity by quite a lot.

On PS3, the "Super Companion Chip" (or whatever it was) that was removed with later revisions, surely added quite a bit to the powerdraw, I'd imagine.

 

[Rangers]

How do you know it's no problem? I don't like the 360 power brick because it has to be kept in a place that a normal powerbrick doesn't. It bugs the shit out of me even more because it has a bright frikkin light on it too. Actively cooled power bricks suck ass. Put it in the damn case!



I didn't say it was louder than a launch era 360, I said the various reports I've read compare talk about it volume as either loud or diplomatically as "no louder than a PC with stock components" (which basically means "loud").

The launch era 360's were pieces of crap. The one I used - in a cold house, on a table with nothing around to restrict airflow - would max the fans out just by running the dashboard in HD. When you switched from SD you heard the fans ramp up to max in seconds. Other launch era systems I used were no quieter. Two 6cm fans spinning at about 5,000 rpm makes an awful noise. I can't see anyone releasing such a badly put together piece of hardware again.

Look at the sales jump once the 360S was released - even before Kinect it was selling much better.



You're the one that use it as an example of a 150W+ card in a console no problem! I think it's an example of why you don't want it and won't get it. A custom console design might do better, but at what cost? The PS3 cooler looked crazy expensive.



And I'm not sure who out there would be saying "the launch PS3 was too small, please give me something bigger. And add an external powerbrick please ... and while we're at it please give the launch 360 fan noise plz."

Just because some people are prepared to put up with a negative it doesn't mean that no-one cares if you make it worse!

If noise and size were such a big deal the Wii would have been far and away the bestseller this gen (which, when you combine PS3 and 360 they sold much more). And I think we all know that even back when it was, it was because of a gimmick that caught on, not the size or quietness of the system. Had it been a completely traditional console, it would have been laughed out of town, and it's small size and inaudible nature would have counted for nothing.

 

[TheWretched]

I wasn't too bothered by my original PS3. It's not ideal, no question, but it's not massively bad either. I since upgraded to a Slim, which is quite a lot more silent than the original PAL PS3, but still not nearly as silent as my (custom build) PC, which also a lot bigger and faster, though.

A lot of complaints where targeting 360, with the first revision. I can't comment on that, as I never owned one. But I guess a lot of the noise isn't the HSF, but rather the optical drive, spinning at several thousand RPMs to reach the intended reading speeds. The PS3 with it's 2x drive didn't have this problem.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

If noise and size were such a big deal the Wii would have been far and away the bestseller this gen.

If noise and size aren't such a big deal, why do sales of consoles catpult when a slim mnodel is released even when there's no associated price drop?

Or rather, instead of looking at an isolated example, understand the whole picture. As ever, a variable has an impact on appeal of different impact to different buyers according to a distribution curve. Size and noise will matter to some people more than others, but to all people by a certain threshold. A 3' wide console running at 100 dBa would get no buyers.

Larger and louder will iompact sales to some degree. XB360 and PS3 combined may have outsold Wii, but would that have happened if they hadn't been refined? That's an unanswerable question. To take a singular example like you did, XB was by far and away the biggest, loudest console of the last gen, and it sold the list. It'd be idiotic to take one example in isolation as establishing a rule though, just as it is to say size and volume don't matter because PS360 outsold Wii.

The development of the next consoles will be factoring in size and heat, as both cost issues and for aesthetic appeal.

 

[Rangers]

If noise and size aren't such a big deal, why do sales of consoles catpult when a slim mnodel is released even when there's no associated price drop?

Or rather, instead of looking at an isolated example, understand the whole picture. As ever, a variable has an impact on appeal of different impact to different buyers according to a distribution curve. Size and noise will matter to some people more than others, but to all people by a certain threshold. A 3' wide console running at 100 dBa would get no buyers.

Larger and louder will iompact sales to some degree. XB360 and PS3 combined may have outsold Wii, but would that have happened if they hadn't been refined? That's an unanswerable question. To take a singular example like you did, XB was by far and away the biggest, loudest console of the last gen, and it sold the list. It'd be idiotic to take one example in isolation as establishing a rule though, just as it is to say size and volume don't matter because PS360 outsold Wii.

The development of the next consoles will be factoring in size and heat, as both cost issues and for aesthetic appeal.

I am trying to understand the whole picture, rather than just one part of it. Of course heat and noise are factors, the question is how much.

Slim consoles are usually accompanied by a price drop, and people like the allure of something new, which is why there's a new iPad and iPhone every year that does basically the same thing. Those factors probably account for a lot of the sales increase.

Also, if I'm not mistaken, wasn't the slim PS3 actually arguably louder than it's predecessor? That seems to have been my experience.

The fat PS3 was renowned for lack of noise, and didn't sell well, not as well as the noisier 360, because of other factors (price, library).

 

[Entropy]

The fat PS3 was renowned for lack of noise, and didn't sell well, not as well as the noisier 360, because of other factors (price, library).

The fat PS3 was renowned for lack of noise only in relation to the first batch of 360s.
The only cineast I know that bought the PS3 for its bluray capabilities went through three before he gave up/found one that wasn't too loud. My other movie enthusiast friends and coworkers all rejected the PS3 due to noise.

How you judge these devices depends on what you want out of them.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Slim consoles are usually accompanied by a price drop

Not always. The PS2 Slim had a small official price drop from $180 to $150 according to Googlage, but it also saw a real world price hike for demand. The fact it was smaller made it more desirable. I think there was no price drop for the Slim in the EU (confirmed on BBC). I know interest in PS2 peaked with the Slim and it wasn't because it was suddenly more affordable, but because it looked so dinky.

Also, if I'm not mistaken, wasn't the slim PS3 actually arguably louder than it's predecessor?

Nope. Mine and my friends' are definitely quieter, because they run cooler by far. That's one reason many existing owners of fat boxes look forwards to revisions.

The fat PS3 was renowned for lack of noise, and didn't sell well, not as well as the noisier 360, because of other factors (price, library).

Right. There are always multiple factors at play. None can be considered in isolation. A shift in one direction means more desirability to some people and less to others. I think it safe to say a low-spec box is going to lose some customers forever, who could never be won back on price, aesthetics, and gimmicks. Likewise a massive box will alienate some people forever. The box can be shrunk over time with manufacturing advances, within limits. If the future of process shrinks and stacking and whatever isn't that rosy, then the consoles can't start too large without risking alienating the customers who want small. But then they can't be too weak without alienating those who more power. The trick of the designers is to find the middle ground that yields the most sales/profits, with as few people as possible alienated. And in doing that, they can't ever say 'such and such doesn't matter' because it does to some. It's a case of estimating how much a feature/factor matters to how many people.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Nope. Mine and my friends' are definitely quieter, because they run cooler by far. That's one reason many existing owners of fat boxes look forwards to revisions.

You are probably comparing launch 90 nm fats to slim? My 40GB fat was 65 nm both CPU and GPU and was quite silent if I remember correctly. The first slim still had a 65 nm RSX and I don't think it was quieter (about the same) and introduced the crackling noise

 

[Megadrive1988]

About the resolution of the games from which my second-hand knowledge come. This may precise a tad more the Wii U power, in a specific context, how third-parties handle the system. It’s related to everything I’ve said before.

The games concerned run ALL in 720p on the main screen. For now, from the mouths of my sources, it's not a console that looks to manage software with complex engines with such ease that their resolution might be 1080p, even at 30 fps. The 720p resolution is best suited for these titles to have a smooth framerate, in addition of the subscreen.

Now let’s talk about the context, which is as important as the information itself:

- Both games have an intensive use of the padlet. More concretely, 3D scenes, different angle of what is on the TV (bird eye view for example). The system is therefore capable of displaying a main screen of AT LEAST comparable quality than current gen versions in 720p (with I guess, a certain amount of AA, etc.) AND another 480p content on the tablet.
- The titles are ports that will be available on actual HD platforms, or more “exclusive” ones but build on inhouse engines already deployed in previous softs. They aren’t tailored from A to Z for the Wii U particularities. And everything is still in development, + dependent of the evolution of dev kits that are changing regularly (at least until now). So it can only improve, and the situation may be different for Nintendo and first-party titles.
- The dev kit involved are the V4 ones. The “V5” is a little more powerful, but apparently not to a point to push these games from 720p to 1080p.
- My sources added that the resolution is the one chosen for now, but a hypothetical other power boost that may occurring post V5 need to be important to allow the system to run these games properly in 1080p.
- These titles will change in the visual department as, like I said, some effects will be applied more in the “end” of the development, with perhaps graphical features not handled by current gen, thanks to the more modern Wii U GPU. So the end result on the main screen will be prettier than on PS360, with a higher resolution (many current gen content are not in true 720p) and especially in conjunction with a heavy use of the tablet. We might expect that games leaving it for simple things will be even more impressive on the TV.

From these informations, several speculations can be derived as:
- The possibility that games with simple engines, such as family titles, Mii-based ones, etc, will be in 1080p.
- Maybe other developers, with a simplistic use of the padlet + after all the optimizations and hardware boosts/tweaking until the dev kit finalization (if they are only moderate and not extensive to a point that it will change this situation completely), will release games in 1080p (with less AA than on 720p, less FPS, etc.), but it doesn’t seem possible AT the moment, if they want their titles to reach a certain level of sophistication and quality in visuals on the TV + intricate use of the subscreen.
- I guess we can speculate further on the power and the amount of some components with this, such as memory / buffer, the GPU…

All these infos are related to my previous posts (it’s the same context) about the hardware power scale, the impressions of my sources, the tablet usage, the memory, the surprising amount of RAM occupation from the OS/Background (it will surely be better and therefore have a positive impact on the general performances, etc.).

Nothing revolutionary as I said, but it can help narrowing a little more the Wii U capacities in this particular context, what you can expect from third parties ports/not exclusive games (because having followed each page of these threads, I saw many gafers who are expecting these titles to be the 1080p versions of their current gen counterparts, but for now, it’s not the case). This does not necessarily mean that the Wii U is underpowered EITHER: manage a visually ambitious game in a solid 720p & framerate, at the minimum a bit prettier than on Xbox 360 + an additional 480p screen with a complex scene rendered on it, is not a small thing.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=36144655&postcount=4991

Pretty interesting stuff, IMO.

 

[-tkf-]

Not always. The PS2 Slim had a small official price drop from $180 to $150 according to Googlage, but it also saw a real world price hike for demand. The fact it was smaller made it more desirable. I think there was no price drop for the Slim in the EU (confirmed on BBC). I know interest in PS2 peaked with the Slim and it wasn't because it was suddenly more affordable, but because it looked so dinky.

Nope. Mine and my friends' are definitely quieter, because they run cooler by far. That's one reason many existing owners of fat boxes look forwards to revisions.

Right. There are always multiple factors at play. None can be considered in isolation. A shift in one direction means more desirability to some people and less to others. I think it safe to say a low-spec box is going to lose some customers forever, who could never be won back on price, aesthetics, and gimmicks. Likewise a massive box will alienate some people forever. The box can be shrunk over time with manufacturing advances, within limits. If the future of process shrinks and stacking and whatever isn't that rosy, then the consoles can't start too large without risking alienating the customers who want small. But then they can't be too weak without alienating those who more power. The trick of the designers is to find the middle ground that yields the most sales/profits, with as few people as possible alienated. And in doing that, they can't ever say 'such and such doesn't matter' because it does to some. It's a case of estimating how much a feature/factor matters to how many people.

Didn't the Slim come with a bigger harddrive as well (120GB) plus Sony backed it with marketing, and there was lots of postive free PR to go around?

 

[babybumb]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=36144655&postcount=4991

Pretty interesting stuff, IMO.

I think this was the reasonable expectation tbh. Many simpler "Mii" like titles run in 1080p on current-gen. The GPU is not what i would consider sufficient for next-gen performance leap. But that is not what Nintendo is after so it is fine for what it is.

 

[Acert93]

Some people wait for Slim models not so much for size but reliability. I had mentioned waiting for a die shrink even before the 360 launched.

 

[TheWretched]

You are probably comparing launch 90 nm fats to slim? My 40GB fat was 65 nm both CPU and GPU and was quite silent if I remember correctly. The first slim still had a 65 nm RSX and I don't think it was quieter (about the same) and introduced the crackling noise

I can confirm as much, since my friend has the 40GB (loudest of those three), my brother has the 80GB and I have the Slim (about the same as the 80GB). The original PAL version was notably louder, even than the 40GB. Actually, under have and long loud, I think the 80GB is a bit less loud (i.e. doesn't need to spin the fan faster) than the Slim, but that could be placebo on my end. The 80Gb does have a bigger fan.

And the crackling... boy does that bother me. Can anyone tell me if the newer Slims still do that?


But, there'll always be a short burst in sales. All fans of a given console will upgrade, the new models are usually introduced with an accompanying price drop... It's a given that it'll sell more for a while.

 

[RudeCurve]

It's a real shame that next-gen consoles will not come in standard AV Rack enclosures. That would allow for the larger power envelope targets people are dreaming of (250Watts or higher).

http://www.silverstonetek.com/product.php?pid=84&area=en

 

[AlNom]

http://www.silverstonetek.com/product.php?pid=84&area=en

Eh? 120W.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Didn't the Slim come with a bigger harddrive as well (120GB) plus Sony backed it with marketing, and there was lots of postive free PR to go around?

I was using PS2 Slim as an example. Interest jumped up with consumers just because it was so cool looking. These weren't well informed gamers waitinf for reliable tech (which most consumers aren't anyhow), but just Joe Public who new about PS2 and were maybe umming and erring about getting one, and the moment it was suddenyl dinky, it tipped them over.

Aesthetics have considerable appeal with Joe Public, with plenty enough prioritising that over factors like performance, reliability, and cost. Other industries target particular demographics with particular aesthetics, but as a console needs to reach as wide a market as possible and can't be broken down into a dozen different models with different specs and styles, the console companies have to reach as broadly as possible with the one box.

 

[Acert93]

Plenty of space to amp that up at 39cm x 7cm x 35cm. The thing is huge

But it also looks pretty sleek and slender. That aside, when discussing this type of thing and the X51 is the X51 is much bigger than a console that would use the same type of components and have the same "airflow" as the PC designs are not very efficient by their modular nature. When you have more freedom to put your parts directly on the board and, to a degree, where you want there is a bit more flexibility in terms of more space or reducing space with the same airflow. But, it is my understanding that the issue with airflow is more of volume moved and not volume exposed. Dead spots are a bad thing.

 

[ultragpu]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=36144655&postcount=4991

Pretty interesting stuff, IMO.

Guess UE4 wont be running on a Nintendo's system any time soon then. It also contradicts to previous rumors of upgraded hardware spec for Wii U since it's unveil. This is not good though as M$ and Sony would feel much less pressure due to a very underpowered competitor, personally I thought Ninty could've done so much better.