Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[Squilliam]

Power could go up (I certainly hope it will, 250-300), but I think it's pretty clearly not going to double for this generation. They are running into the limits of whats reasonable for a console sized box in terms of power consumption heat and noise.

There is also the fact you have to consider that we aren't looking at reasonable length generations either. Effectively I consider the next generation consoles to be replacements of the current slim 360/PS3 rather than the originals due to the 7-8+ year generation gap.

 

[AlphaWolf]

There is also the fact you have to consider that we aren't looking at reasonable length generations either. Effectively I consider the next generation consoles to be replacements of the current slim 360/PS3 rather than the originals due to the 7-8+ year generation gap.

Does that mean you expect 80W power consumption? Cuz I don't see the point in buying anything my laptop will kick the crap out of.

 

[fehu]

I was thinking that in 2013 ibm can launch the power8 architecture, there's the possibility that is developing in parallel some console hybrid based on it with improved smt
At 22nm without the server stuff, and maybe with improved fp, even a 4 core can be small and powerfull

 

[IllusionistK]

There is also the fact you have to consider that we aren't looking at reasonable length generations either. Effectively I consider the next generation consoles to be replacements of the current slim 360/PS3 rather than the originals due to the 7-8+ year generation gap.

Did the PS2 launch at PSOne's re-spin size; did PS3 launch at PS2 Slimline size?

I see no precedence there to make any judgements in that regard.

Also, I don't see how an extended cycle means weaker consoles... The opposite may be true if anything.

 

[function]

Did the PS2 launch at PSOne's re-spin size; did PS3 launch at PS2 Slimline size?

PS3 launched at over 5 times the power consumption of the PS2. Next gen power consumption will be based on whatever balance of objectives are deemed appropriate for the next round, and not based on some arcane use of multipliers applied to selected previous generation stats.

I see no precedence there to make any judgements in that regard.

GC: ~30W. Wii ~20W.

Your TDPs can go down as well as up. Terms and conditions may apply.

 

[eastmen]

For al lthose thinking amd's chips are to power hungry , remember the 7970 series already comes at diffrent voltages that greatly affect its power usage. I think its a bit early to count them out. How much is the power usage the chip and how much is the process .

 

[AnarchX]

For al lthose thinking amd's chips are to power hungry , remember the 7970 series already comes at diffrent voltages that greatly affect its power usage.

These GPUs have different leakage characteristics, so the power usage is nearly the same, even there are different voltages.

 

[Squilliam]

Does that mean you expect 80W power consumption? Cuz I don't see the point in buying anything my laptop will kick the crap out of.

Nope. The current design sizes are likely good for ~150W. Your laptop probably doesn't do much more than 40W.

Did the PS2 launch at PSOne's re-spin size; did PS3 launch at PS2 Slimline size?

I see no precedence there to make any judgements in that regard.

Also, I don't see how an extended cycle means weaker consoles... The opposite may be true if anything.

They didn't hit power walls and they didn't launch eight years after their predecessors. You can't always predict the future based on the past.

 

[Megadrive1988]

Epic: Next-gen launch games will probably stick with Unreal Engine 3
Unreal Engine 4 "very futuristic," says Mark Rein
By Andy Robinson for computerandvideogames.com

Despite showing off Unreal Engine 4 behind closed doors at GDC this month, Epic Games says its predecessor Unreal Engine 3 is "probably the way to go" for launch games on next-generation consoles.

Speaking to CVG in a frank and insightful interview at GDC, Epic's always well-spoken VP Mark Rein pointed to UE3's ability to power visuals such as those seen in the stunning Samaritan demo, which he said the engine is capable of doing "right now."
Rein said: "Samaritan is something you can do right now. In fact, Unreal Development Kit has all the features that powered Samaritan - every single graphics feature you can do. We could have shown another 30 videos.

"We have guys doing stuff on high end PCs that are just outside of the gaming space that are really pushing the envelope there. So that to us is pretty exciting - and you can do that now."

He added: "UE3 is already available for that sort of stuff. I think if you were going to do a launch title for a future console, UE3 would probably be the way to go. And likewise if you were going to do something cross-generational, like Mortal Kombat on PS Vita, Xbox, PS3 and potentially it could be on iPad... that's Unreal. Unreal spans the gamut, it goes from the smallest smartphone platforms up to the highest spec PC you can build and beyond."

On Unreal Engine 4 - which Epic hopes to publicly showcase later this year - Rein commented: "The UE4 stuff is very futuristic. UE3 is really the horse for this year."

Rein also said he can only see demand for middleware like Unreal Engine increasing in the future, but he also thinks we'll see a "broadening" of approaches taken by developers.

"Not everybody, but lots of people would like to take their games to more and more places," he explained. "It's not enough to just have a PC game anymore. Look at Dungeon Defenders; iOS, Android, Steam, Xbox Live, PSN, web, Mac... they sold a million units, and this is a small developer. So I think it's not just up or down, but it's also horizontal."

In the same interview, the Epic VP told us the developer's constantly pushing platform holders to make their future hardware 'bleeding edge'.

http://www.computerandvideogames.co...mes-will-probably-stick-with-unreal-engine-3/

 

[bitsandbytes]

http://www.computerandvideogames.co...mes-will-probably-stick-with-unreal-engine-3/

Sound's to me like Epic tried to convince Sony/MS to go bleeding edge again and failed.

I think Sony/MS have 2 choices at this point. Moderate power increase and launch late 2013 or delay until late 2014/15 when 20/22nm chips are viable.

I think the former is more likely at the minute.

 

[McHuj]

Sound's to me like Epic tried to convince Sony/MS to go bleeding edge again and failed.

I think Sony/MS have 2 choices at this point. Moderate power increase and launch late 2013 or delay until late 2014/15 when 20/22nm chips are viable.

I think the former is more likely at the minute.

It could be. (Everyone's integrating a tablet controller and that's eating up the budget j/k).

This could also mean that UE4 just isn't ready. He didn't say UE4 was skipping the next generation, just that launch console games won't likely use it.

Epic made statements that they would like to be there with UE4 at the start of next gen. Regardless of the power of next gen consoles (and the surrounding hyperbole), I would expect Epic would want to sell a UE4 development platform for them as soon as possible.

If you want to start developing a game, you need the engine at the start, no? Plus in the ballpark of 2 years of development so UE4 should have shipped last year for next gen consoles games launching at the end of 2013.

 

[babybumb]

Of course UE3 will be used.

UE4 is not ready right now and publishers cant afford to just straight up ignore current-gen machines when next-gen hits and limit to less than 10M machines. No, they need to leverage that installed base a long time.

This was not possible with PS2->360 jump and many developers went bust.

 

[Acert93]

Sounds to me like UE4 isn't even ready for an outsider developer to use so a 2013 launch title would need to use UE3. A 2014 launch would still probably require UE3 considering a 2-3 year development cycle. It sounds like UE4 is a totally new branch and won't allow for easy porting.

I wouldn't read much more than that into when Epic said. They certainly want to avoid the bad press (and lawsuit) they got last time with UE3, specifically that they shifted resources to their own UE3 titles and away from the middleware leaving others to hang. Message to devs? "Use UE3 if your title, e.g. launch title, is time sensitive."

It also makes good business sense; a title developers on UE3 could also have a PS3/360 version depending on the game's design.

 

[AlphaWolf]

I would be very surprised if epic made it difficult to migrate to UE4.

 

[ultragpu]

My feeling is that Kepler card running UE4 demo could barely handle it as it is just like how a 6800 ultra struggled to run UE3 back then. You most likely need a card twice as fast as a 680gtx to fully turn up every bells and whistles of UE4. This doesn't bode too well for consoles.
On the other hand imagine one of the console "guys" mans up with their hardware

Spoiler

ok this does sound a little weird

and munched down UE4 like a cake, I can't wait to hear the marketing tagline to go along with their console.

 

[IllusionistK]

PS3 launched at over 5 times the power consumption of the PS2. Next gen power consumption will be based on whatever balance of objectives are deemed appropriate for the next round, and not based on some arcane use of multipliers applied to selected previous generation stats.

This entire thread is based on that very conjecture were those "arcane multipliers" would still result in the same leaps that we've made in the past. You downplay the significance of the past and yet cite the Wii as evidence when its a lone exception in an otherwise consistent industry.

If the stop-gap WiiU and decline of Wii is any indication, I would say that the objective is fairly clear.

 

[Acert93]

Looks like Sony isn't the only one wetting their feet in the HMD waters. MS is too. Maybe the solution to not all users having HD displays is to ship every console with an HD display.

 

[DieH@rd]

Can anyone dig up that manufacture cost breakdown of Radeon 6870? Im wondering how much money AMD spent on that 1gb of gddr5. Also, can you tell me how many chips did they use [8x128MB or 4x256MB ?]

 

[AlNom]

Also, can you tell me how many chips did they use [8x128MB or 4x256MB ?]

The former.

 

[Megadrive1988]

My feeling is that Kepler card running UE4 demo could barely handle it as it is just like how a 6800 ultra struggled to run UE3 back then. You most likely need a card twice as fast as a 680gtx to fully turn up every bells and whistles of UE4. This doesn't bode too well for consoles.
On the other hand imagine one of the console "guys" mans up with their hardware

Spoiler

ok this does sound a little weird

and munched down UE4 like a cake, I can't wait to hear the marketing tagline to go along with their console.

We need another NeoGeo-like console that blows away XB3/PS4, maybe the rumored Steam Box

With dual high-end Keplers!