Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[GuestLV]

http://www.gamespot.com/xbox360/har...7/xbox-720-logo-appears-in-real-steel-trailer

Microsoft branding for supposed Xbox 360 follow-up spotted in Hugh Jackman's near-future robot boxing film.

 

[Rangers]

http://www.gamespot.com/xbox360/har...7/xbox-720-logo-appears-in-real-steel-trailer

Nothing of substance there, just some theoretical future Xbox logo placeholder they made up to put in a movie.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

This is the next-gen tech thread.

 

[Rangers]

CliffB says next gen consoles will have to pass the Mom test (but not the way you think), says 2014 http://www.majorleaguegaming.com/news/gears-cliff-bleszinski-mlg-exclusive-qa-part-2/

MLG: Have you guys already started tinkering with next gen hardware?
Cliffy B: I don’t have the legal capacity to talk much about that. There’s been some interviews saying to expect some cool stuff around 2014 but that’s really all I can say.

MLG: The 360 is six years old at this point. How much time does the current gen have left?
Cliffy B: Sony and Microsoft have deemed that the consoles will be around until they can make a new one and they’re going to wait until they can release something that’s visually head and shoulders above what current consoles are capable of. I always joke that it has to pass the “Mom Test” – When you can take your mom to Best Buy and show her a football game in low-def compared to high-def and she can actually tell the difference. That’s where you need to be at to make a new console.

2014

 

[rekator]

2014

Around 2014… probably end of 2013! Good time!

 

[TheChefO]

I always joke that it has to pass the “Mom Test” – When you can take your mom to Best Buy and show her a football game in low-def compared to high-def and she can actually tell the difference. That’s where you need to be at to make a new console.

See it's quotes and thoughts like these that keep consoles in the boundaries of what we traditionally think of when we think of "games console".

I'd venture to say that the vast majority of xbox360 and ps3 sales were to adults 18+

"Mom" doesn't factor into the equation anywhere near as much as back in the Snes Genesis days.

This same "growing up" in mind-frame needs to take place in all facets of this industry. There will always be kids growing up that will want to play "Toy Story9 - The Game", but that is hardly indicative of the vast majority of the audience anymore.

With that, IMO, comes the freedom to not squeeze the console into a shoebox. Let it stretch it's legs in something a bit more ... grown up ... like a standard full-size 17" component, akin to a cable DVR.

And hopefully, some grown up content to match the expanded guts that are afforded in such roomy accommodations.

 

[jlippo]

Around 2014… probably end of 2013! Good time!

This would most likely mean a proper SM6? capable GPUs, will be very interesting to see what developers will be getting out of those monsters.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

See it's quotes and thoughts like these that keep consoles in the boundaries of what we traditionally think of when we think of "games console"

I don't think he's suggesting mums have to okay the purchase. He's saying the difference between one generation and the next has to pass the most typically technologically illiterate test. It has to be a big enough change that everyone can see it, regardless of whether those people are involved in a purchasing decision or not.

 

[Proelite]

With that, IMO, comes the freedom to not squeeze the console into a shoebox. Let it stretch it's legs in something a bit more ... grown up ... like a standard full-size 17" component, akin to a cable DVR.

Won't that encourage stacking of other devices on top of the consoles? I would think that the next generation consoles would need the venting space since they would have many times the TPD of the other devices.

Could it be that the reason that the current gen consoles have their form factor is to discourage people from stacking the devices?

I would extremely happy if the nex gen xbox was the same size as the 360, and have a TPD of 200 Watts.

 

[3dcgi]

I don't think he's suggesting mums have to okay the purchase. He's saying the difference between one generation and the next has to pass the most typically technologically illiterate test. It has to be a big enough change that everyone can see it, regardless of whether those people are involved in a purchasing decision or not.

That's how I read it too.

 

[Proelite]

Realistically what kind of fab process do we expect the next xbox to be on if it launches in late 2013. Should MS wait for 22nm/20nm to mature in order to catch the cycle in the beginning rather than risk being at the end of a fab cycle.

 

[Ninjaprime]

Realistically what kind of fab process do we expect the next xbox to be on if it launches in late 2013. Should MS wait for 22nm/20nm to mature in order to catch the cycle in the beginning rather than risk being at the end of a fab cycle.

22/20nm or whatever TSMC and GF want to call it, aren't going to be ready for any console before a fall 2014 launch. Unless someone throws a curveball and goes for Intel...

 

[Proelite]

22/20nm or whatever TSMC and GF want to call it, aren't going to be ready for any console before a fall 2014 launch. Unless someone throws a curveball and goes for Intel...

So am I correct that 28nm would the best that MS can do for 2013? What kind of performance advantage would a 22nm chip offer compared to a 28nm chip given the same die space. Does anyone have any eyeball figures?

 

[AlphaWolf]

I eyeball 38%.

 

[Ninjaprime]

So am I correct that 28nm would the best that MS can do for 2013? What kind of performance advantage would a 22nm chip offer compared to a 28nm chip given the same die space. Does anyone have any eyeball figures?

Depends on a lot of factors, if it was Intels 22nm with 3d gates it might be a pretty big jump, perhaps as much as double, but IIRC TSMC/GF/IBM aren't moving to 3d gates until 16/14nm node, so it would just be scaled 22/20nm of current tech. I'm not sure how they plan to get passed the leakage problems at 22/20nm without 3d gates, but I would guess that the jump would only be 30-50%, unless they adopt 3d gates. If they did switch, that would delay it even more, might not even make 2014.

 

[jlippo]

Been wondering what would be the most wanted GPU changes what developers would want for a future generation of hardware. (SM6? class maxwell and AMD equivalent.)
Would things like programmable blending and quad-fragment merging be in the most wanted lists or has tests with SM5 cards showed something one would want even more?

 

[msia2k75]

So, i think it's fair to assume we won't have a bulldozer as a CPU...

 

[Proelite]

So, i think it's fair to assume we won't have a bulldozer as a CPU...

I like the sound of a pp6 derivative, in order, with 4 way SMT.
4 cores x 4 threads for a total of 16 threads sounds nice.

Maybe Sony should go radical and use several dozen of the most advanced cellphone CPUs in PS4.

 

[hoho]

4 cores x 4 threads for a total of 16 threads sounds nice.

Not unless the IPC per-thread is significantly higher than Cell/Xenon has as otherwise there wouldn't really be much of a CPU upgrade.

 

[3dilettante]

Power7 is out of order. Remove that, and there's not much that is going to link it to the final result.