Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

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I'd prefer 2014 just for a more comfortable position in memory and process node technologies that are on the cusp of advancing (DDR4, mature 28nm) in the next two years. :p

I'd be deeply disappointed if they launch at 20nm in 2014. 28nm would be quite mature by 2012 end so one expects mature 20nm by 2014 end.

But YM-with TSMC-MV.

The advantages of getting another shrink are too big and they won't need huge volumes in the first year anyway.
 
I imagine Apples business model is similar in 2012 to 2009. The Mini has always been Macs least profitable kit. It sells for about $700 today so assuming a similar markup the manufacturing cost would be about the same or more about $400?
And that price it's still not much of a gamer
Dual core 2.4 GHz
Nvidia 320m
2 GB
Remove HDD.
Retail price estimates for WiiU seem to be about $300.
How much profit does Nintendo want to make his time?
Could Nintendo shave at least $100 of the cost manufacture the WiiU( compared to Mini) and still deliver something better than a Mini.
I guess they have to.


Remove the HDD

For one they dont buy processors they license them, in that they save a lot of money (that was the main problem of the first XB), nor are they using cutting edge process but a mature one that are cheaper. That really saves a lot of money.

Then even the stores barely do any profit from selling the console.

Then being custom chips they offer much better bag for the buck (or just cheaper) as there is a lot of stuff you dont need from a PC CPU GPU, the same can be said for most of the components.

I wouldnt coun twith more than 1.5 GB.

Join even more economy of scale, matured process, the lower proffis margins...

So I think they can save way more than 100$ in that and make, even with the controller the console with 300$ with nice profit margins
 
See, it is easly possible with off the self components, certainly it is with custom chips.

What is this it? Are you disagreeing with me on some point I made? BTW mobile GPUs aren't just some "off the shelf components", they are already optimized for low powerdraw.
 
What is this it? Are you disagreeing with me on some point I made? BTW mobile GPUs aren't just some "off the shelf components", they are already optimized for low powerdraw.

Am saying that you can have great components on a laptop size.You seemed to agree,if not my mistake.

Anyway.

A low power power7 uses 20w and beat the living hell out of the xenon (with around 10x more transistors IIRC), and a mobility 5830 is a dx11card that uses 24W* (with 3x the transistors of the xGPU and edram and higher clock speeds, ie much more than 4x xenos)

That is 44W of two monster performers (a lot better than what I expect) with stuff not needed for a console and probably consuming less than what 45nm xb360 uses in its CPU/GPU.

Certainly with custom chips they can do better in a refined process, after 2 years of experience.

Heat/size shouldnt be a problem.


*http://www.amd.com/us/products/note...radeon-5800/Pages/mobility-radeon-5800.aspx#3
 
From where did you get the 20Watts figure for a low power POWER7?
A powerpc a2 which power efficiency seems to have been the mantra during the development achieve this kind aof figure with only one module @1.4GHz. The odds for a 20 Watts POWER7 are low, next to none imho.
 
It's crazy that the average selling point of this generation is still well over 200$, considering that we are in the 6th year of this generation. Microsoft has still lots of room for keeping Xbox360's sales alive: price reduction, Kinect momentum and also another console redesign.
The single chip design is still at 45nm, and without the edram on die. If they move to 32nm, they may be able to reduce considerably the size of the console.
What about a X360 500gb at 199$ at the end of 2012, with Halo 4?
I think that it could easily power sale until the end of 2014 actually.

I don't think MS and Sony are too much worried about the WiiU, but they are more concerned about when the other player will launch the next-generation. Is it far from reality that they may have done an agreement to launch in the same year?
 
From where did you get the 20Watts figure for a low power POWER7?
A powerpc a2 which power efficiency seems to have been the mantra during the development achieve this kind aof figure with only one module @1.4GHz. The odds for a 20 Watts POWER7 are low, next to none imho.

That A2 is the chip he is talking about, since it's the only one fitting his claims. I would like to know how he calculated that it performs more Gflops at that speed than Xenon at 3.2Ghz? I didn't find any numbers, but Power7 at 4.14Ghz churns out 33 Gflops per core, unless A2 is better per clock than that, it does not beat Xenon in that metric. In any case I'm 100 % certain, that we wont be seeing a cpu over 400mm2 in Wii U.

The mobile 5830 is kind of interesting, but it has a gimped memory bandwith and with faster memory the consumption also goes up. It also has the same max clock as Xenos not higher like he claimed.I don't think it's over 4x faster than Xenos with that setup and I think it's also too big for Wii U.
 
I don't think MS and Sony are too much worried about the WiiU, but they are more concerned about when the other player will launch the next-generation. Is it far from reality that they may have done an agreement to launch in the same year?

Supposedly they've "telegraphed" each other that they would like this gen to continue a while. I think that was in the watch.jp article.

As a practical matter Fall 2013 is now the earliest you can see a Xbox 3, as Fall 2012 will be dedicated to advertising Halo 4 on 360.
 
That A2 is the chip he is talking about, since it's the only one fitting his claims. I would like to know how he calculated that it performs more Gflops at that speed than Xenon at 3.2Ghz? I didn't find any numbers, but Power7 at 4.14Ghz churns out 33 Gflops per core, unless A2 is better per clock than that, it does not beat Xenon in that metric. In any case I'm 100 % certain, that we wont be seeing a cpu over 400mm2 in Wii U.

The mobile 5830 is kind of interesting, but it has a gimped memory bandwith and with faster memory the consumption also goes up. It also has the same max clock as Xenos not higher like he claimed.I don't think it's over 4x faster than Xenos with that setup and I think it's also too big for Wii U.
Well why not calling it properly? There is a lot of confusion going on, watson is the new green whereas we're speaking of of big blue (... sorry for the lame joke).
POWER7 and POWERPC A2 have really few in common. It's not larrabee vs core I7 but it still gives an idea of the gap between design choices.
For FLOPS well it's not irrelevant but for many CPU workloads they are not what define how well the perfs will scale. CPU are not GPU and they don't handle the same tasks.

A 400mm^2 CPU? Fior sure we won't see this, in any next gen device actually. Come on, since when the perf of CPU are decided on FLOPS alone? Please let not fall into the silly season.
 
Well why not calling it properly? There is a lot of confusion going on, watson is the new green whereas we're speaking of of big blue (... sorry for the lame joke).
POWER7 and POWERPC A2 have really few in common. It's not larrabee vs core I7 but it still gives an idea of the gap between design choices.
For FLOPS well it's not irrelevant but for many CPU workloads they are not what define how well the perfs will scale. CPU are not GPU and they don't handle the same tasks.

A 400mm^2 CPU? Fior sure we won't see this, in any next gen device actually. Come on, since when the perf of CPU are decided on FLOPS alone? Please let not fall into the silly season.

He didn't call it properly, because he didn't know and to be honest I don't know much about their architechtures either. Neither of us was really making FLOPS to be anything too special. He just mentionded in other thread, that PowerPC A2 chip counts more flops at 1.4 ghz than Xenon at 3.2 and I was just curious to know where he got that.
 
Well I guess it will be better if he makes his point clearer.
I've read all the papers I found about the A2 that are public (not much so far) not much is known about it aside that it's a 2 issue in order which support 4 way SMT Intel style (neither a barrel processor round robin multi threading, instruction of the various threads are issued concurrently).
From waht I read I'm not even sure it support Altivec/VSX SIMD units. It can do FP and DP FP calculations but I found no peak figure from IBM that would have confirmed me if it's though FP units of SIMD.
Same no clue about the number of load store units address units, integer units, etc.
IBM has been so far secretive about the chip but it's still not on sale. We may learn more in proper time.
I'm willing to learn more about them :)
 
I am very sorry I mixed the p7 and a2 info :oops::oops::oops:

BTW it seems that, looking at 5850, GDDR5 may cost up to 9w, it still is 33W it seems enough to put in a small console, and I dont expect to see such a powerful chip inside Wii U.
 
BTW it seems that, looking at 5850, GDDR5 may cost up to 9w, it still is 33W it seems enough to put in a small console, and I dont expect to see such a powerful chip inside Wii U.

24W is the TDP - It's the amount of power (joules per second) that the cooling system needs to dissipate during operation. The actual power consumption will be significantly higher under load. At least consider that you haven't already included the CPU's TDP, and that the nature of the chassis will likely necessitate high fan speeds. For example, my Core i7 Q720M has a max TDP of 45W - this sucker gets loud while under load and the laptop itself gets pretty hot to touch with just a couple hours under full load.

So you're right, I wouldn't expect that either (far from it). ;)
 
I think we agree that next gen consoles need to CPUs and GPUs with size,/TDP in notebooks range.So when i see this link* my hope and expectations returns about "powerfull gpu" for next consoles(talking about PS4 and "X720"/X3).



Radeon 5650M -> 15/19 watts,Redwood, with 400 strean processors/SIMD (based wiiU gpu?) at 40nm (28nm->10/14 watts?)

Radeon 5870M -> 50 watts,Juniper, 800 streans/SIMD , 40nm (28nm-> 30/35 watts?)

Radeon 5950M -> 50 watts,Barts,960 streans/SIMD,40nm (28nm-> 30/35 watts..)

Geforce GTX 470M -> 45/50 watts,GF104,288 streans( 2* core clock) ,40nm ( 28nm=~ 30/35 watts).

Removing UVD3 etc others features customized and more useful in pcs for saving transistors count and watts, maybe get a gpu is really very powerful up to 100 watts (counting 28nm expected to 2012/2013?) which (my guess) is quite reasonable for start next gen consoles.






* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compar...ocessing_units#Evergreen_.28HD_5xxx.29_series

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_Nvidia_graphics_processing_units
 
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I'd prefer 2014 just for a more comfortable position in memory and process node technologies that are on the cusp of advancing (DDR4, mature 28nm) in the next two years. :p

But DDR4 and 28nm will be mature by 2013 and by releasing on that node they can prototype all they want with decent yields from later on this year and the following year after release they can shrink down to the 22nm process, perhaps to the point where they can sustain a loss leading position for a year and then move straight to profitability.
 
DDR4 at what speed and density? :p

Well, with a mature 28nm, they might be able to push things further (higher average performance on yields) than the rocky road that was evident with 90nm. You're also betting on foundries not suffering another delay for the arrival of 22/20nm. Even 65nm arrived quite late for consoles this gen, and even then the results were not particularly impressive. The delay with 28nm so far would have pushed back 22/20nm introduction as well.
 
Well according to our trusty lusty Wikipedia: they expect production to start in 2012.

The minimum speed is approximately 2.1Ghz up to 3.2Ghz and the minimum density of the chips is likely to be something like 4Gb.

The new chips are expected to run at 1.2 V or less,[24][25] versus the 1.5 V of DDR3 chips, and have in excess of 2 billion data transfers per second. They are expected to be introduced at clock speeds of 2133 MHz, estimated to rise to a potential 4266 MHz [1] and lowered voltage of 1.05 V [26] by 2013. DDR4 is likely to be initially commercialized using 32 – 36 nm processes,[1] and according to a roadmap by PC Watch (Japan) and comments by Samsung, as 4 Gbit chips.[23][19] Increased memory density was also anticipated, possibly using TSV ("through-silicon via") or other 3D stacking processes.[3][1][2][27] The DDR4 specification will include standardized 3D stacking "from the start" according to JEDEC.[27] X-bit Labs commented that "as a result DDR4 memory chips with very high density will become relatively inexpensive".[1] Prefetch will also potential increase up to 16 bits per clock, compared to DDR3's 8 bits per clock.[3]

DDR4 also anticipates a change in topology. It discards dual and triple channel approaches (used since the original first generation DDR[28]) in favor of point-to-point where each channel in the memory controller is connected to a single module.[2][3] This mirrors the trend also seen in the earlier transition from PCI to PCI Express, where parallelism was moved from the interface to the controller,[3] and is likely to simplify timing in modern high-speed data buses.[3] Switched memory banks are also an anticipated option for servers.[2][3]

So I reckon that a little bit of DDR4 and a little bit of ED-RAM would suit a next generation console quite nicely especially if they can use 8 * 4Gb 16 bit chips and transition to using 4 * 8Gb 32bit chips the following year or two years following release.

As for 22/20nm well... surely it'll be out by 2014?! Thats three years after AMD have started the transition to 32nm... I have faith! :p
 
Well, exactly. The longer they put it off, the better the chances of cheaper, higher density or faster DDR4. Didn't people want their 8GB consoles to actually be feasible???

;)

As for 22/20nm well... surely it'll be out by 2014?! Thats three years after AMD have started the transition to 32nm... I have faith! :p

It's not so much a question if it'll exist, but whether it will be ready for mass production. Early adoption of the process won't be cheap - far from it as capacities will be constrained and as it'll take time to get better yields.
 
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