Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

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I expect MS and Sony will both be prepared to launch something within a year of the Wii2, but they'd rather hold off a bit if they can. That's just common sense.
 
Indeed I think their plan is to launch later but I'm willing to bet they have contingency plans if they need to move cause the Wii2 is perceived as getting off too fast and too far.
 
I think ms can design and sell a $500 system at a $500 price point. I doubt there will be two skus next gen and i don't think the market can handle more than $500 for a system
 
Sometimes waiting is the best bet so you can respond to or maybe even better a competitors offering not long after it got on the market. You could say perhaps that Sony's NGP strategy was almost to wait for the next gen Nintendo handheld and then attempt to better it once they knew what they were trying to better whilst working on what they believe would be key features of the next generation device in the meantime.
 
I predict that next-gen consoles will sell for

Nintendo HD ~ $299 in 2012
Xbox3 ~ $399 in 2013
PS4 - $399 in 2013/2014
But is NHD a nextgen console or really late current gen console.. ;)
In terms of power it most likely will not be anything like future platforms from Microsoft or Sony.

Prices sound about right, I just hope that the machines would have as much memory as possible, would love to see proper persistent worlds in games.
 
But is NHD a nextgen console or really late current gen console.. ;)
In terms of power it most likely will not be anything like future platforms from Microsoft or Sony.
And if the past is any indication of the future, it will launch at a lower cost, much lower power draw (i.e. quieter, more compact, and less likely to fail due to heat related issues) and seemingly quite a bit earlier. If all of the above is true, the new Nintendo seems likely to be a fair bit less powerful in terms of pure processing capabilities than the hypothetical later launching competitors. The above can actually work out in favour of the new Nintendo offering.

A whole lot of supposition in that, since we are comparing one unknown against two other unknowns, launching at unknown dates and at unknown prices.
 
AFAIK all GDDR5 modules are 32bit. However they can be operated in clamshell mode. This means at this point the maximum is 8x 2Gb = 2GB of RAM. Based off this I cannot see consoles with a 128 bit bus having more than 4GB of RAM for the next generation of consoles.

One thing you should remember is that GDDR5 requires IIRC 30% more pins than GDDR3. So a 128 bit GDDR5 bus is around the equivalent of a 166 bit GDDR3 interface.
Thanks for the infos :smile:

Sounds like we're looking to 2014 for next gen sytems. I've hope for greatness even with more limited silicon budgets :) On the other hand it's a long time to wait...

Does any one know if Ms gave even the slightest hint about how long directx 11 should last?
 
Entropy said:
And if the past is any indication of the future, it will launch at a lower cost, much lower power draw (i.e. quieter, more compact, and less likely to fail due to heat related issues) and seemingly quite a bit earlier. If all of the above is true, the new Nintendo seems likely to be a fair bit less powerful in terms of pure processing capabilities than the hypothetical later launching competitors.

Reading this one word came to mind: Dreamcast.
 
Reading this one word came to mind: Dreamcast.

I liked Dreamcast, it was an excellent system IMO and really quite powerful for its time (sold at quite a loss per unit AFAIR). Sega just didn't have the first party games or the cash to drive it along when third party support was poor.
 
I liked Dreamcast, it was an excellent system IMO and really quite powerful for its time (sold at quite a loss per unit AFAIR). Sega just didn't have the first party games or the cash to drive it along when third party support was poor.

ya the dreamcast was a solid performer it just died because of lack of support from developers.
 
Does any one know if Ms gave even the slightest hint about how long directx 11 should last?

Well I heard from somewhere that DX12 should come around the same time that Windows 8 comes out...

Direct X 9c came out Aug 2004, DX10 came out Nov 2006 and DX11 came out Oct 2009. So based off this release schedule we should expect to see DX12 in 2012.
 
AFAIK all GDDR5 modules are 32bit. However they can be operated in clamshell mode. This means at this point the maximum is 8x 2Gb = 2GB of RAM. Based off this I cannot see consoles with a 128 bit bus having more than 4GB of RAM for the next generation of consoles.

One thing you should remember is that GDDR5 requires IIRC 30% more pins than GDDR3. So a 128 bit GDDR5 bus is around the equivalent of a 166 bit GDDR3 interface.

sorry, but isn't 2GB the max amount at 2Gb density with a 128bit bus in clamshell?
((2Gb * 4 memory chip) * 2 for clamshell) / 8bit
 
sorry, but isn't 2GB the max amount at 2Gb density with a 128bit bus in clamshell?
((2Gb * 4 memory chip) * 2 for clamshell) / 8bit

Thats what I said. "However they can be operated in clamshell mode. This means at this point the maximum is 8x 2Gb = 2GB of RAM"
 
I predict that next-gen consoles will sell for

Nintendo HD ~ $299 in 2012
Xbox3 ~ $399 in 2013
PS4 - $399 in 2013/2014

I think it'll be really tough to do $399 next gen console without taking huge loss again like last time. Considering both MS and Sony is still recovering from that launch I am not sure they'll be eager to repeat that again even in 2014.

You can't afford much with $399 these days. I reckon next gen consoles from MS and Sony need to be price at around $799 or $999, that allows for significant upgrade over current console. Minor upgrade are just a waste of time IMO.

Looking at the rumour Nintendo Project Cafe specs, it is probably going to be $349. Nintendo might be able to get the tri-core CPU and R700 on a single chip, to match the BOM of current Xbox360.
 
Don't be shy, tell us what these things are.

I'd like to see OpenCL GPGPU be a standard thing, hence why I'm all for a Fusion APU + dedicated GPU in Wii 2. If devs don't need the graphics part of the APU, they can just use it in hybrid crossfire for higher FPS. GPGPU techniques used on that platform could be directly used on the PC with AMD graphics, and we could see some very high quality PC-Wii 2 porting, instead of substandard PC-360 porting.
 
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