@Prophecy2k, grandmaster and Shifty Geezer
I don´t think it´s important how many X % better games look, because as grandmaster points out we are approaching diminishing returns and people don´t really bother that much.
It will basically be all about marketing, add some dirt cheap memory, a new motion controller, maybe a few extra shaders to the GPU and voila you got a new console refresh that can live another five years.
Developers will be happy as they can use the same code and just upgrade some assets and add some effects, the motion controller will be new, but hey they already got the Wii to support so it would be done anyways.
To reiterate it´s mostly about marketing, the EA guy confessed EA is spending twice as much on marketing a title than the development budget. That gives a hint that it´s not the quality of a product that is most crucial for the success, Sony and MS will point to a number of improvements and people will just be happy to know they buy a better product at roughly the same price and that´s it.
I don't even know how you could concievably market the thing without it being much more than a "modest" updgrade.
As has been said, slight tweaks will likely not make any difference to the software being produced across the systems. You'd have to make it a significant enough upgrade for there to be a big enough increase in visual fidelity so that the average joe casual gamer can see it.
Otherwise, if you're gonna go motion control outta the box, then both the current PS3 and 360 will have their MC's out by 2010, both will cost less and already have a much larger software library available to any potential buyer.
So let's say you make it a significant enough upgrade so that you can do MC (motion control) games at higher resolutions and framerates. Significant enough for there to be a perceptible and therefore marketable difference. Then how to you persuade game devs and publisher to make games for these new consoles, exclusive games that would justify the upgrade or bring in new a new audience? Most devs and publishers, knowing that your new consoles are just a stop-gap until the real next-gen, would be adverse to doing any exclusive content as they'd likely earn more and would already have an established 54 million strong userbase with the current PS360. The same goes for your first parties, as it would make no economical sense to develop games, be them MC or standard controller games for only your PS560 and alienate your current userbase.
In the end you'd end up getting slightly uprezzed ports of multiplat games if you're lucky, and the only exclusive content (unlikely entire games) would be by your first parties anyway. Hence many consumers would have little reason or cause to upgrade to the new platforms, and new comers would likely just buy the cheaper current boxes rather than the newer "upgraded" consoles that offer little to no benefit.
As a platform holder you only have one other option... make the HW upgrade considerably significant! I.e. a REAL next-gen box. Hence why I don't see any logical benefit of doing anything less!
If the current PS3 and Xbox 360 weren't getting Natal and the Wands, then it'd be a different story entirely
