Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[V3]

8* 4Gbit ram modules, they aren't shipping anything higher than 2Gbit at present in volume right? But the 4Gbit modules should be available by the time the next console ships. I guess they could manage it so long as they don't go back to say 4 ram chips for example.

Has GDDR5 reached 2 Gb ? Last I heard it was 1 Gb. And 4870 used 512 Mb modules.

Now 2GB seems likely, but we still have a long way to go before next gen. Years most likely. I think the longer that drags out 4GB is more and more likely. I'd already put it at better than 50-50.

If we assume history means anything, 4GB also seems likely. Xbox>360=8X RAM, PS2>PS3 even more, 16X.

Also, I always remember back to an interview about Xbox where they said that by the end, the most expensive components were the hard drive and the RAM. I think that's why RAM is always such a precious commodity in consoles. It seems to maintain a hard cost longer.

Yeah it's really up to the time table. At the moment only the consumer X2 variant graphic cards come with 2 GB of memory. And only the pro card comes with 4 GB, personally I've never seen the 4 GB card, but it's probably available somewhere with the right price tag. So if MS or Sony are going to have some upgrade next year to combat Wii, it'll be around 1-2 GB GDDR5.

 

[Mobius1aic]

I wonder who would buy such a thing? Are the Wii crowd going to be happy to spend another £200 just for upgraded graphics, or do they exist fairly outside the realm of graphical interest? Will existing HD console owners want to get a marginally improved console which looks set to receive the wrong sort of games compared to what the HD consoles are used to? Especially with the extended controls their current machines are getting nullifying the Wii advantage.

I thought about this as well, and I honestly wouldn't count on it. If my history serves me correctly, wasn't this a large issue with Atari trying to get people to upgrade off the 2600 and move to the 5200? I don't think the casual base will care enough to change over unless they have to (such as complete abandonment by Nintendo of the hardware support), but I think a think a marginally upgraded Wii, at least with an extended framebuffer could be doable, but of course, since Nintendo has made an *** load of money with the Wii, Nintendo can still run with it. Honestly though I do expect Nintendo to have another home console before Sony and MS do. Expectations do change over time, and with casuals Nintendo could be fostering the next generation of more hardcore gamers. But at the same time we could have a Microsoft OS situation where people are happy enough with the current product (IE Windows XP) that they [Nintendo] have to create a new product just to get the money rolling again, and force people while they're at it

 

[Squilliam]

Has GDDR5 reached 2 Gb ? Last I heard it was 1 Gb. And 4870 used 512 Mb modules.



Yeah it's really up to the time table. At the moment only the consumer X2 variant graphic cards come with 2 GB of memory. And only the pro card comes with 4 GB, personally I've never seen the 4 GB card, but it's probably available somewhere with the right price tag. So if MS or Sony are going to have some upgrade next year to combat Wii, it'll be around 1-2 GB GDDR5.

I think they are technically available for high end cards at present and soon to be shifting into consumer level cards over the next year I would guess. I was kind of just thinking about the capacity available for cheap around the time they would release the system.

 

[Entropy]

I don't get the fascination with those newfangled graphics architectures bred in the PC space. In a closed box, paired up with a dozen SPEs at 4GHz or more, why would you want to use GPU die space on vertex processing at all, let alone "gemetry shading"? For what purpose do you need integer bit shifts in your fragment ALUs? Are we even sure we need all computations to be FP32?

I'm a big fan of throughput. That always helps. Features can be nice, but there's a point of diminishing returns, and I think we've already passed it a good while ago.

Heretic! Stone him, STONE HIM!!
We absolutely demand that GPUs use FP64 everywhere, and it had better be IEEE compliant!
And since no right thinking enthusiast would want to run their tree-traversal code on anything but a GPU, it has to support really fast branching and pointer chasing as well of course. That's critical for fast chess programs, and this is all about gaming right?
Right?

 

[fearsomepirate]

If Nintendo was to release a Wii HD that really was a step up from the current system, how would they address those who don't upgrade.

By not releasing a Wii HD. The next system won't be "Wii Plus a Step." It will be something new. Its hook won't be better graphics (though it will have better graphics)--it will be something else entirely. Probably a major revision to the controller. Graphics weren't what sold the Wii, and they aren't going to be what sells the next machine.

it could give the Wii the graphical upgrade so many more hardcore gamers have been clamoring

What the "hardcore" want is irrelevant to Nintendo, because unless it's an Xbox, they're not going to buy it. Oh sure, they'll gripe up a storm on neogaf or IGN, but answering their complaints doesn't translate into customers. They didn't make either the NES, DS, or Wii a success. They didn't stop N64 from failing. They didn't stop games like Eternal Darkness from failing. They really are not as numerous or as important as they think they are. They are simply a very, very vocal minority.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

By not releasing a Wii HD. The next system won't be "Wii Plus a Step." It will be something new. Its hook won't be better graphics (though it will have better graphics)--it will be something else entirely. Probably a major revision to the controller. Graphics weren't what sold the Wii, and they aren't going to be what sells the next machine.

Question is though, what exactly can they do that's new with PSMotion and Natal out? Unless they have thought control, their options seem limited.

 

[fearsomepirate]

Question is though, what exactly can they do that's new with PSMotion and Natal out?

I think you need to answer the question in terms of software.

The main problem is that the HD consoles are built on fans of, for lack of a better term, "testosterone games." You know, the games about guns, sports cars, and bikini babes blasting fireballs. The "core games." Neither MS nor Sony can make their next console a full counterattack to Wii in the sense of these motion-controlled "lifestyle" games being the heart and soul of the machine, or they risk alienating nearly all their current customers and screwing up the whole business model of "heavily DRMed platform for 3rd parties." So I think Sony will market its controller as a peripheral, basically "Eyetoy II." No threat there, because "Eyetoy II" means that Sony isn't deploying its best software development teams to attack Nintendo's successes like Wii Fit (as though Naughty Dog, Polyphony Digital, or Santa Monica Studios would even do that!).

MS is different. It knows it's being disrupted. The Xbox was a counterattack to disruption of the PC game development business by the Playstation. I could very well see them releasing two consoles: An Xbox 3, and a new brand with 360 guts, featuring the motion camera as its main interface--basically exactly what Nintendo did with the Gamecube for this generation. Its core customers will be happy (they'll have the ueber-powered Xbox 3), and its 3rd parties will still be happy (Xbox 3 will be just as generically indistinguishable a platform as nearly every console since the Playstation). If, like Sony, they make Natal a peripheral--even a peripheral bundled with Xbox 3, Nintendo's safe.

But if they do the two-console solution (or do the unthinkable--make Xbox 3 a camera-centric machine and relegate the Halo crowd to secondary importance), Nintendo's response will be software-based. People forget that software, not the remote, drove Wii sales. If it had launched without Wii Sports, it would have been dead. Remember Wii Fit? Third best-selling console game of all time? It's important because it's not even based on the remote. You don't experience a controller or a graphics chip. You experience the software. Frankly, I don't think MS has the game development talent to do what Nintendo has done this generation. The only way MS could successfully counterattack whatever Nintendo's going to do next is if Nintendo seriously miscalculates what kinds of games people will drive console momentum (like they did with Wii Music and their current infatuation with user-created content).

And that's the main thing, I think--for Wii-like success, you have to have a Wii-like 1st party-centric, expanded audience-focused software philosophy that would completely overturn everything that made the Playstation model successful and alienate those millions of customers that have no interest in Wii to begin with.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

The main problem is that the HD consoles are built on fans of, for lack of a better term, "testosterone games."

I disagree. Flow/Flower, PixelJunk, LBP, EyePet, SingStar, etc. are clearly targeting non-testosteroners. Perhaps Sony can be accused of casting their net too wide and lack of focus on non-testosteroners means not cpaturing either market segment completely, whereas, one could argue, MS has secured the hardcore and Nintendo the other side. But I don't think Nintendo's position of 'the happy family safe console' is insurmountable for another iteration of hardware. Point being, Nintendo's future doesn't lie with them as much as the competition. What you've described as fueling Nintedo's future success is an inability or unwillingness of the competition to actively and successfully pursue the Wii audience. If they do chase the same audience, Nintendo will be going head to head.

Which returns us to the question of Nintendo next hardware. Is there anything they can do with the hardware to differentiate themselves, or is it just a software problem, in which case they'd better hope MS and Sony continue to fumble the ball!

 

[fearsomepirate]

I disagree. Flow/Flower, PixelJunk, LBP, EyePet, SingStar, etc. are clearly targeting non-testosteroners.

Really? You really think those are the games that have built whatever success the PS3 has? Not, multi-platinum games like Metal Gear Solid and Gran Turismo Prologue? Not that the PS3 has much momentum to begin with, but those games are certainly not in the driver's seat. If you want to look at what drove a console's success, you look at the top games, not weird little niche titles that sold a few hundred thousand units.

What you've described as fueling Nintedo's future success is an inability or unwillingness of the competition to actively and successfully pursue the Wii audience. If they do chase the same audience, Nintendo will be going head to head.

Nope, that's not what I described at all. That's pretty much the opposite of what I described. Are you sure you read the same thing I wrote?

I realize it's kind of a TL;DR post, but I'll summarize/recapitulate:

To chase the audience Wii has chased, Sony and MS would have to abandon their current business strategy, and relegate their current audience to second-place. But then they would be abandoning their core corporate strengths and trying to compete head-to-head on Nintendo's core strength, which is 1st party software. When it comes to developing and publishing games, remember, Nintendo is the "big company" and everyone else except for EA and Activision are "tiny companies," including Sony and Microsoft. Sony simply can't mount a co-opt counterattack against Nintendo. Their company isn't built that way. Their software development isn't built that way. The relationship between 3rd parties and their brand's success isn't built that way. If they tried, it would destroy them. So count them out. Their motion controller will be Eyetoy II in its philosophy, with Eyetoy-like success, meaning not much of it.

Microsoft can. They'd need to introduce a new brand, but they're not bad at that. But the problem is that they are a "monkey-see-monkey-do-monkey-buy-you-out" company. If you want to know how that would go, look at their repeated, inept, failed attempts to counter-attack Google. They've rebranded their search engine, what, three times now? They survive disruptive attacks by co-opting and subsidizing with Windows revenues, often until they're basically giving away their product for free, while waiting for their attacker to do something stupid and die on its own sword before they get big enough to be a threat. Except sometimes the attacker never gets stupid.

What I'm actually saying is that Nintendo's strategy depends on what MS and Sony are going to do. The only way Nintendo could fail is if they make huge blunders. If MS and Sony decide to make their motion controllers peripherals, Nintendo can stick with an iterative improvement. More powerful Wii, better controller, fancier sports, fitness, puzzle, and Mario games. If MS goes with a full co-opt counterattack, it's playing on its weakness and Nintendo's strengths, which is 1st party games--and Nintendo will respond with more "Blue Ocean" games: Think Wii Fit's philosophical children. In other words, while MS is busily making a better (meaning more bullet-pointed, not necessarily more fun) version of Nintendo's hot game of last year for its Natal-rebranded 360 (which is really what all their software is--someone else's idea with three new bullet points), Nintendo's already coming out with the next hot new thing. They will proceed to hemorrhage money unless Nintendo alienates its new customer base by doing something stupid, say, by focusing on "user generated content" (meaning no content) games.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Really? You really think those are the games that have built whatever success the PS3 has?

I say they are a part of it, and going forwards, will be a considerable part of it, just like it was with PS2.

To chase the audience Wii has chased, Sony and MS would have to abandon their current business strategy, and relegate their current audience to second-place.

They've already built up the hardcore installer base. 3rd party will keep them happy, and Sony+MS can turn their resources to cultivating the softcore market. So they don't have to abandon anything.

When it comes to developing and publishing games, remember, Nintendo is the "big company" and everyone else except for EA and Activision are "tiny companies," including Sony.

Really? I remember seeing a graph of publisher size and Sony were third, I think. Nintendo were pretty small by comparison. Sony have far more developers at their disposal.

If MS and Sony decide to make their motion controllers peripherals...etc...

Though I agree with this paragraph in general, you haven't put in the possibility of Sony launching new hardware with high-end motion as standard, or bundling motion in with PS3. I'd say the only thing standing in Sony's way is their own ability to completely follow through with all their potential, but that can change. And none of this discussion answers the question of the thread - what's the new hardware going to be? From where Nintendo are sitting, what are thinking regards their new box? 'Our software is unassailable, so we can put out whatever cost effective solution we want'? 'We have shown the way! But we showed the way with consoles and the NES, and yet lost 2 generations when Sony overtook. Now Sony are coming up fast again. We need a new USP'?

 

[fearsomepirate]

I say they are a part of it, and going forwards, will be a considerable part of it, just like it was with PS2.

There's no evidence of that. Glowing reviews on IGN and buzz on neogaf do not translate into a game being a key momentum-driver. Those little niche games that hardly anyone really cares about help keep the momentum from petering out, but they're not the foundation.

They've already built up the hardcore installer base. 3rd party will keep them happy, and Sony+MS can turn their resources to cultivating the softcore market. So they don't have to abandon anything.

You can't take current customers for granted in the entertainment industry. There's no guarantee that your current customers will buy your next console--ask Nintendo and Sega about that! There's not even a guarantee they'll keep playing video games. Do you think that if Sony had launched the $600 ueber-graphics PS3 with a wand peripheral, they would have sold 60 million units by now? I don't. I don't think you really understand why anyone's buying Wii, and why Sony can't just mimic Nintendo without sacrificing something. Wait a minute, didn't PS3 launch with a motion controller? How'd that work out for them again?

1. The PS relationship with third parties depends on it being a generic "platform" they can easily port games to or from--basically a casualized PC. It depends on them not seeing Sony as a major competitor with an unfair advantage in selling its own games. That's the foundation they've built the PS house on. It's why MS was able to take them on--they basically provided a box that's much better at being "gaming PC for casuals." Sony believing its own hubris and releasing a $600 machine didn't hurt, either.

2. Wii's success hinges on its differentiation. Third parties don't jump on a console that's too different from everything else; they need the option of porting to hedge their bets, because a Wii game you can port to PC is, at best, a mediocre Wii game to begin with. That kind of machine has to be driven by first-party software. Nintendo didn't sell Wii as a generic platform for motion-controlled games. They sold it as access to Wii Sports and Wii Fit. It's a huge difference in corporate philosophy, and the number of Sony's internal studios doesn't change that.

3. What satisfies the last-gen customer alienates the expanded market and vice-versa. If you release an ueber-graphics machine with both a ten-button controller and a wand and don't pack in any games, the expanded audience won't buy it. The worst is if you have an incoherent message--then neither kind of customer buys it. But if you make it motion-centric (maybe omit the old-style controller entirely), don't blow so much cash on media functions and silicon, and market the console by centering on its pack-in "for everyone" game, you alienate and piss off the core. That's why I strongly suspect MS will go with a two-console strategy.

Really? I remember seeing a graph of publisher size and Sony were third, I think.

Every time I see a report on software sales, the top three are always EA, Activision, and Ubisoft. Which one is #1 varies. Or you could estimate from this:
http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=21968
Or if you want to estimate, Last knowledge I had was that roughly 1/3 of sales on Nintendo platforms are Nintendo games, and half of all games sold are on Nintendo platforms. Since neither MS nor Sony do anything close to 1/3 on their platforms, again, Nintendo's the giant there.

Though I agree with this paragraph in general, you haven't put in the possibility of Sony launching new hardware with high-end motion as standard,

Because it would alienate fans accustomed to the dual shock, which is their primary audience, and it wouldn't get the expanded audience, since they don't care about high-end gaming products. They won't do it unless they're completely stupid.

or bundling motion in with PS3.

You mean "Eyetoy II"? I did mention that. Too little, too late. Sony would be at least four years behind in the software race. Monkey-see-monkey-do competition never works as well as the copycats think it will. A peripheral doesn't even rise to the MSMD level.

I'd say the only thing standing in Sony's way is their own ability to completely follow through with all their potential, but that can change.

You never beat the leader at its own game unless it makes major blunders. Ever. Even with the original Playstation, that was a victory built on Nintendo and Sega falling to their own hubris (much like Xbox's victory is built on Sony's own blunders--and even then, it's been Pyrrhic). Sega couldn't decide whether to make a new console or keep plugging stuff into the Genesis, and Nintendo believed publishers would come crawling to them. If you want to see what it looks like when the leader doesn't do anything stupid, look at the handheld space, or look at consoles from 1994-2005.

Your basic theory seems to be that Nintendo can't really satisfy its customers, so if Sony merely mimics the Wii and releases a bunch of MSMD software, the result will be so much better (in those people's eyes) that all those moms playing Wii Fit will buy Playstations. That's like imagining that Sony Online will ever compete directly with Xbox Live. MS is a couple years ahead of the game there and always will be, because by the time Sony catches up to where MS is now, MS will have already moved on. "Like my competitor's product that you've been using for years, but a different brand!" is a terrible marketing line, anyway.

So what do I think Nintendo will actually do? Sustaining improvements. Look for another $250 box in a tiny form factor. I'm predicting backward compatibility, so very possibly a Flipper-like GPU, but with more pixel pipelines and fillrate for HD resolutions, and perhaps a multi-core version of the current CPU. The controller will have sustaining upgrades like an additional button or two, more ergonomic design, and MotionPlus technology. There will be something Wii Fit-like. But don't look for it soon...Wii's potential is nowhere close to being tapped out yet.

Unfortunately for Nintendo, I do think they're about to get stupid. Their whole company seems to be oriented around "user created content" right now, which no one wants. Most gamers want to consume content, not spend time making it. But the expanded audience won't flock to Playstation instead. They'll go back to not gaming again.

 

[Prophecy2k]

There's no evidence of that...etc...Unfortunately for Nintendo, I do think they're about to get stupid. Their whole company seems to be oriented around "user created content" right now, which no one wants. Most gamers want to consume content, not spend time making it. But the expanded audience won't flock to Playstation instead. They'll go back to not gaming again.

I have a sinking feeling that some folk will have some serious crow to eat at the end of this generation

Mod : There's no need to quote an entire post just to add one line.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

There's no evidence of that.

Save for people I know who have bought consoles not to play hardcore games...

Do you think that if Sony had launched the $600 ueber-graphics PS3 with a wand peripheral, they would have sold 60 million units by now?

Of course not, no more than Nintendo would have sold Wii at $600, uber graphics or not.

I don't. I don't think you really understand why anyone's buying Wii.

It's not that hard. The right product at the right price, preferably something new and exciting. Nintendo got the whole package right this time around.

2. Wii's success hinges on its differentiation...etc...It's a huge difference in corporate philosophy, and the number of Sony's internal studios doesn't change that.

What you're saying here is a company can't be all things to all people. You are either a casual console or a hardcore console. Firstly I don't subscribe to that philosophy. Secondly, and here's the bit you're astill missing, this is a thread about Next Gen Console Tech. You still haven't presented a hardware platform for Nintendo! I'm saying whatever they do in hardware and software, anyone else can do, in principle. The only time this isn't true is in principle is if you are out the gate with something new, leaving the competition in your wake. This discussion held last gen could have read 'I expect Sony and MS to come out with big hardware, maybe HD video and online service. Whereas Nintendo will maybe try to differentiate themselves with something new, perhaps motion controls.' At this point it appears there's little Nintendo can do on the hardware front.

3. What satisfies the last-gen customer alienates the expanded market and vice-versa. If you release an ueber-graphics machine with both a ten-button controller and a wand and don't pack in any games...

What's to stop anyone bundling PS4/XB4000 with a versatile interface and a party games pack? You really think XB4000 bundled with Natal will see all the current fans of Halo and Gears view it as a girly console and go buiy PS4 instead?

Or if you want to estimate, Last knowledge I had was that roughly 1/3 of sales on Nintendo platforms are Nintendo games, and half of all games sold are on Nintendo platforms.

You're claiming Nintendo have the greater development power because they sell most of the games sold on their platform are theirs? Call me crazy, but I'd say a company's development power is the number and size of its studios. That is, if Sony decided to turn all its first party developers to making 'casual' titles, they could probably churn out twice as many as Nintendo.

You mean "Eyetoy II"?

No, I mean a well crafted, years in development, motion interface.

Sony would be at least four years behind in the software race.

Poppycock. They were how many years behind Nintendo in exerience regards PS1? If your theory were true, it'd mean no company could ever overtake another. Or even compete. There'd just be monolithic giants stretching back years upon years as the primordial creators. We all know young, small, lively startups can create novel products and ideas. We all know old companies can get set in their ways and fail to innovate.

Monkey-see-monkey-do competition never works as well as the copycats think it will.

It rarely does because they invariable fumble on the execution. Like LIPS for example. That doesn't make it an impossibility though.

You never beat the leader at its own game unless it makes major blunders. Ever.

I diagree. The best product at the best price can usurp the champion. The current reigning champion has a significant advantage in terms of mindshare, but that's not unassailable. That's why business compete with each other, instead of back down and let the number one have the market to themselves.

Your basic theory seems to be that Nintendo can't really satisfy its customers, so if Sony merely mimics the Wii and releases a bunch of MSMD software, the result will be so much better (in those people's eyes) that all those moms playing Wii Fit will buy Playstations.

Not at all. I'm saying, in this HARDWARE thread, what are Nintendo going to do regards competing hardware platforms? This gen they had unique hardware that enabled them to corner a segment of the market. Had they not had Wiimote, all the software in the world would not have saved Nintendo. How many Wii-Sports fans would have bought Wii if Sports was played on a dual-stick controller?!

Next-gen it looks like Nintendo's hardware options are limited. They'll be fighting the opposition on an even keel. Sure, they've got a software advantage and a reputation advantage at this point, but if that's all their relying on next gen...good luck to 'em!

 

[aaronspink]

What you're saying here is a company can't be all things to all people. You are either a casual console or a hardcore console. Firstly I don't subscribe to that philosophy.

You don't have to subscribe to it or to history either. I'm sure there are some interesting quotes about people who don't subscribe to history.

Secondly, and here's the bit you're astill missing, this is a thread about Next Gen Console Tech. You still haven't presented a hardware platform for Nintendo! I'm saying whatever they do in hardware and software, anyone else can do, in principle. The only time this isn't true is in principle is if you are out the gate with something new, leaving the competition in your wake. This discussion held last gen could have read 'I expect Sony and MS to come out with big hardware, maybe HD video and online service. Whereas Nintendo will maybe try to differentiate themselves with something new, perhaps motion controls.' At this point it appears there's little Nintendo can do on the hardware front.

If Nintendo is smart? More of the same with moderately increased graphics. Probably drop the disc support.

You're claiming Nintendo have the greater development power because they sell most of the games sold on their platform are theirs? Call me crazy, but I'd say a company's development power is the number and size of its studios. That is, if Sony decided to turn all its first party developers to making 'casual' titles, they could probably churn out twice as many as Nintendo.

Hey I have an idea, lets name every group of 5 people as a studio! Yeah, then we'll have more studios than anyone else.

Here's a history lesson for you. For the past 15-20 years, Nintendo has had both a large and more successful studio than all its competitors studios combined. One way to look at Nintendo hardware is as a way for their studio to sell games.

The other thing to realize is that no studio has been as innovative for as long as Nintendo. They've regularly turned out niches into genres. Found untapped markets. Nintendo is really the creative energizes of its designers realized. They are good at it. Better than anyone else.

And all this coming from someone who doesn't own a Wii, never intends to own a Wii, who's parents (MY FRIGGIN PARENTS!) bought a Wii for themselves, don't particularly like the nintendo franchises, etc. But I can recognize greatness when I see it. And Nintendo has had it for a long time in the game dev area. There are maybe a small handful of studios in the same league with Nintendo, and non of them are owned by MS or Sony.

Not at all. I'm saying, in this HARDWARE thread, what are Nintendo going to do regards competing hardware platforms? This gen they had unique hardware that enabled them to corner a segment of the market. Had they not had Wiimote, all the software in the world would not have saved Nintendo. How many Wii-Sports fans would have bought Wii if Sports was played on a dual-stick controller?!

Wii HD. basically, a little more memory, a little more power. Some enhancements tweaks to WiiMote. Done.

 

[Prophecy2k]

You don't have to subscribe to it or to history either. I'm sure there are some interesting quotes about people who don't subscribe to history.

I didn't quite get what you were saying to Shifty here?

If Nintendo is smart? More of the same with moderately increased graphics. Probably drop the disc support.

Surely Nintendo dropping disc support for their casual-gamer centric console would almost obliterate their casual friendly appeal??? The vast majority of grandmas, soccer moms and great aunties buying the Wiis of today wouldn't at all be all that comfortable with 100% direct download console.

Hey I have an idea, lets name every group of 5 people as a studio! Yeah, then we'll have more studios than anyone else.

This is a bit of an ignorant post so I won't comment there.

Here's a history lesson for you. For the past 15-20 years, Nintendo has had both a large and more successful studio than all its competitors studios combined. One way to look at Nintendo hardware is as a way for their studio to sell games.

The other thing to realize is that no studio has been as innovative for as long as Nintendo. They've regularly turned out niches into genres. Found untapped markets. Nintendo is really the creative energizes of its designers realized. They are good at it. Better than anyone else.

Well considering Nintendo weren't all that successful for the past two gaming generations, i'm really not sure how accurate your statement is there. Of course I would never downplay the importance of Nintendos presence and contribution to gaming as an industry since the beginning, but you clearly cannot ignore the fact that one of the biggest failures of the N64 was its lack of 3rd party support. Their 1st party studios simply couldn't support the platform and so they lost out to the PS1, and again the PS2 in the subsequent generation.

I would then argue that it was their choice to go with the Wii-mote control scheme that won them the success they're enjoying now. Also the fact that it was the new control scheme that FORCED their internal studios to start innovating with their software.

Nintendos studios do make great software, and some are even undisputed masters of game design. But above all of that, as a company, hardware and software, they're current success can only really be attributed to their capturing of an untapped market by creating new experiences that appeal to the greater traditionally non-gaming masses.

There are maybe a small handful of studios in the same league with Nintendo, and non of them are owned by MS or Sony.

By what metric are you using to measure their supposed "greatness"? If it's sales then what about Sony Santa Monica (God of War devs), Polyphony Digital (those guys built a monster franchise), Bungee (when they were 1st party obviously) etc... All devs that have produced some monster selling software. I would definitely say they're all in the same league as Nintendos succesful internal devs.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I didn't quite get what you were saying to Shifty here?

One presumes history has lessons for those who don't follow trends in thinking. One can also point to inumerable examples of theories that pretty much the whole world accepts as true, only to later be proven false.

But this isn't a history thread and has been derailed too much as is. Those presenting arguments need to present them in respect to hardware choices. Aaronspink ended with a prediction for 'Wii 2', which is as it should be.

 

[NeoTechni]

Thanks to the crap that is the Wii, the other 2 have learned how to make real money. Slight upgrade+gimmicks.

Thanks for ruining gaming Nintendo.

We'll get a slight graphical upgrade in that every game will be 1080p, 60fps, but art wise, we'll only be getting a slight texture quality upgrade.

They know how to make money now, and it isn't with hardcore games.

 

[Rangers]

Thanks to the crap that is the Wii, the other 2 have learned how to make real money. Slight upgrade+gimmicks.

Thanks for ruining gaming Nintendo.

We'll get a slight graphical upgrade in that every game will be 1080p, 60fps, but art wise, we'll only be getting a slight texture quality upgrade.

They know how to make money now, and it isn't with hardcore games.

Do you know that HD consoles combined, the PS3+360, generally sell on par or better than the Wii? It will be interesting to see if that becomes even moreso with the recent 360 and PS3 price drops, it likely will.

There's also the fact the Wii is a desert for most third parties. It's basically a box for Nintendo software to make money hand over fist now.

I dont think there's any danger of what you suggest. All the informed speculation/rumors I've heard assume Sony and MS are both going high end next gen.

I dont think the hardcore is going away, and that hardcore cares a lot about graphics. If one of Sony or MS abandons the hardcore crowd, the other will just be free to scoop it up and reap the rewards alone imo. The rewards of at least half the market.

Not even to mention the fact of MS or Sony fully competing in Wii's space is a hard sell IMO. Without Nintendo's brand or family friendly IP, they would likely fall flat, it could be a real disaster, and they probably know that.

 

[NeoTechni]

i hope youre right
cause ill stop gaming if youre not
itd be ironic that the company that got me into gaming is the one who abandoned me and may get me out of it

 

[Prophecy2k]

One presumes history has lessons for those who don't follow trends in thinking. One can also point to inumerable examples of theories that pretty much the whole world accepts as true, only to later be proven false.

But this isn't a history thread and has been derailed too much as is. Those presenting arguments need to present them in respect to hardware choices. Aaronspink ended with a prediction for 'Wii 2', which is as it should be.

My apologies Shifty... I forgot to add my bit on the end for my own Wii-NEXT prediction:

Wii-NEXT
CPU: Xbox 360 level or slightly more powerful Quad Core beastie
GPU: Maybe something a little more powerful than the current 360 GPU
Control Method: A combined "Wii-Mote/Motion+"-Mote that gives 1:1 control and maybe adds some other new quirky innovation, without all the current Wii-Mote limitations.

I think Ninendo will look to upres to HD with their next console. Not because they see it as something their consumer wants, but rather that they expect HD to eventually become the global standard amongst their intended market, especially with the proliferation of HD TV sets and rapid phasing out of SD sets. I think it'd be a travesty for Nintendo NOT to go HD with their next Wii.

They definitely won't shift their marketing focus, and will continue to develop the same kinds of software that has bagged them such a mondo installed base this gen. Avec their controller, i think its a given that they'll do a WiiMote/M+ combo next gen.

I also think that their next console will look to push the boundaries even further to lower the barriers for entry for more non-gamers out there. Especially given that they'll now be competing directly in their current Wii market with Sony and MS and their own motion controller equivalents.

Nintendo aren't stupid, but i do think they'll have to do something radically different next gen, although I also think that they know this. Which is why I beleve that they're experimenting this gen with things like the vitality sensor.

Imho, if they try to simply rehash the Wii next gen, the kinds of people their products, brand and image attracts may not be all too enthusiastic about upgrading to Wii-Next.

My two cents