Prophecy2k
Veteran
It wouldn't surprise me if they had TVs which transformed into Gundam in Japan 
They've always been ahead of the game.
They've always been ahead of the game.
Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech
- Thread starter Acert93
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I kind of don't like where the consoles are headed. It's getting to the point where the interface is too crowded and convoluted that it's eating up resources that should be used in games. God forbid that it will get to the point where you will see streaming Advertisements while on the User control or while playing a game. Hopefully it will get rectified on the next generation.
aaronspink
Veteran
Games have already been released with in game advertising...
Indeed... as far back as Splinter Cell Chaos Theory and Brothers in Arms IIRC (updated ads via internet). There are already streaming ads in the 360 dashboard too, though one has to move the selection box over; they're not played while you use the dash. I see telus ones pretty often (Canada).
Alkohallick
Newcomer
are there ads for the paying LIVE members too?
Alkohallick
Newcomer
As I have sold my 360 after it came back from rrod, ive been away from the nxe didnt know that ads were involved now... kinda sucks when your paying for the membership.
OT--what i really dont get is why i have to pay a monthly fee to use a feature listed (online multi)on the back of the game when users of the same game on ps3 dont. i understand the difference in the 2 offerings but a fee to use a feature of the game=blah \end ot
in re to the Wii in tv's, in most hotels in the US they still have the n64 joystick and interface availible so its surely possible.
OT--what i really dont get is why i have to pay a monthly fee to use a feature listed (online multi)on the back of the game when users of the same game on ps3 dont. i understand the difference in the 2 offerings but a fee to use a feature of the game=blah \end ot
in re to the Wii in tv's, in most hotels in the US they still have the n64 joystick and interface availible so its surely possible.
Ads have always been part of the 360 dashboards. However, the ads in the 360 NXE dashboard are not as bad as those on the original dashboard. Before they actually had dedicated screen real estate on every blade. You couldn't get away from them, they were always starring you in the face. On NXE the ads are regulated to the individual tiles. Some(not all) channels have tiles with ads, but those ads are hardly ever on top, they're buried under the top tile. So you only see portions of them when scrolling through the channels. And the kind of ads are well targeted and relevant to most of the audience they are intended for.
Yes, some of them are animated with sound. I've only seen a few of these kind and most of the time they're on the Video Marketplace channel & buried 3 tiles deep. They end up being snippets of movie trailers. But in order to see & hear them fully, you actually have to scroll to the actual tile, otherwise it's muted.
Personally I like the way ads are handled better than the original dashboard. You can easily ignore them, but there are also a few that are actually helpful: notifying you of content I might otherwise have missed.
I still can't fathom why so many here are so upset that a paid service offers advertising. Newspapers & magazines have done it since the beginning. Movie theaters have done it since the beginning. TV(OTA, cable & satellite) have done it from the beginning. Even free services like radio have provided advertising since the beginning. If you want a paid service that doesn't have advertising it's a pipe dream unless you create your own.
Tommy McClain
Yes, some of them are animated with sound. I've only seen a few of these kind and most of the time they're on the Video Marketplace channel & buried 3 tiles deep. They end up being snippets of movie trailers. But in order to see & hear them fully, you actually have to scroll to the actual tile, otherwise it's muted.
Personally I like the way ads are handled better than the original dashboard. You can easily ignore them, but there are also a few that are actually helpful: notifying you of content I might otherwise have missed.
I still can't fathom why so many here are so upset that a paid service offers advertising. Newspapers & magazines have done it since the beginning. Movie theaters have done it since the beginning. TV(OTA, cable & satellite) have done it from the beginning. Even free services like radio have provided advertising since the beginning. If you want a paid service that doesn't have advertising it's a pipe dream unless you create your own.
Tommy McClain
Relative pricing of consoles for an hypothetical 2010 launch
I thought it might be interesting to lay out a plausible scenario for an hypothetical 2010 industry-wide console launch.
I believe Microsoft's launch of Natal next year is an ample opportunity for it to introduce not just a new accessory, but also a revamped Xbox with more capability. I do not expect Microsoft's rivals to sit idle.
Nintendo updates their current product with HD capability (which also improves the SD experience).
$250 Nintendo WiiHD (sold at profit)
-upgraded CPU & GPU, but same form factor
-more memory (256-512 MB)
-720p capability
-power consumption under 20 watts
-integrated Motion+
-camera
Microsoft pushes their market towards Natal, offering a low Xbox entry-point, but also milking the low-end with expensive add-ons (hard drive, Natal accessory, wireless, rechargers, etc).
$100 Microsoft Natal accessory
-cameras, microphone array
-CPU and memory adds to cost
-for legacy 360s
-Natal game
$200 Xbox 360 Arcade (sold at profit)
-45nm combined CPU+GPU
-1 GB flash
-no hard drive
$300 Microsoft Xbox Natal (sold at loss)
-replaces the 360 Elite
-integrated Natal
-45nm 6-core Xenon CPU (~350 million transistors)
-45nm GPU w/32 MB EDRAM (~700 million transistors)
-1 GB GDDR5
-similar form factor
-250 GB hard drive
-12x DVD drive
-3D TV support
-full compatibility with Xbox 360
-power consumption ~120 watts
-external power supply
Sony competes at both ends by providing superior value, but with a higher price.
$300 PS3 Bundle (sold at profit)
-45nm RSX
-250 GB harddrive
-3D TV support
-PSMotion controller
-PSEye
-motion-based game
$500 PS4 (sold at loss)
-45nm 24-32 core Cell2 (~1 billion transistors)
-45nm RSX2 w/64 MB EDRAM (~1 billion transistors)
-2 GB XDR2 RAM
-250 GB hard drive
-8x Blu-ray (support for 200 GB discs?)
-power consumption ~200 watts
-updated HDMI, SATA, Bluetooth, Wifi, etc.
-3D TV support
-full compatibility with PS3
-new non-gaming, Internet/multimedia software
$600 PS4 Bundle (sold at loss)
-500 GB hard drive
-PSMotion controller
-PSEye
-motion-based game
I have considered some alternative scenarios, but they tend to have major drawbacks. For example, if Sony goes for a minor upgrade with the PS4, it basically abandons any significant performance advantage that its architecture provides while still being more difficult to harness in software. A more powerful PS4 could be launched in 2011, but that would allow the Natal console to become entrenched, and again, the Xbox would end up defining the visual standard.
Microsoft could introduce the Natal console at $400, but that does not exactly fit in with a major Xbox re-branding effort to de-emphasize the old line, along with its associated reliability problems, nor does it compete as well with the low end.
I thought it might be interesting to lay out a plausible scenario for an hypothetical 2010 industry-wide console launch.
I believe Microsoft's launch of Natal next year is an ample opportunity for it to introduce not just a new accessory, but also a revamped Xbox with more capability. I do not expect Microsoft's rivals to sit idle.
Nintendo updates their current product with HD capability (which also improves the SD experience).
$250 Nintendo WiiHD (sold at profit)
-upgraded CPU & GPU, but same form factor
-more memory (256-512 MB)
-720p capability
-power consumption under 20 watts
-integrated Motion+
-camera
Microsoft pushes their market towards Natal, offering a low Xbox entry-point, but also milking the low-end with expensive add-ons (hard drive, Natal accessory, wireless, rechargers, etc).
$100 Microsoft Natal accessory
-cameras, microphone array
-CPU and memory adds to cost
-for legacy 360s
-Natal game
$200 Xbox 360 Arcade (sold at profit)
-45nm combined CPU+GPU
-1 GB flash
-no hard drive
$300 Microsoft Xbox Natal (sold at loss)
-replaces the 360 Elite
-integrated Natal
-45nm 6-core Xenon CPU (~350 million transistors)
-45nm GPU w/32 MB EDRAM (~700 million transistors)
-1 GB GDDR5
-similar form factor
-250 GB hard drive
-12x DVD drive
-3D TV support
-full compatibility with Xbox 360
-power consumption ~120 watts
-external power supply
Sony competes at both ends by providing superior value, but with a higher price.
$300 PS3 Bundle (sold at profit)
-45nm RSX
-250 GB harddrive
-3D TV support
-PSMotion controller
-PSEye
-motion-based game
$500 PS4 (sold at loss)
-45nm 24-32 core Cell2 (~1 billion transistors)
-45nm RSX2 w/64 MB EDRAM (~1 billion transistors)
-2 GB XDR2 RAM
-250 GB hard drive
-8x Blu-ray (support for 200 GB discs?)
-power consumption ~200 watts
-updated HDMI, SATA, Bluetooth, Wifi, etc.
-3D TV support
-full compatibility with PS3
-new non-gaming, Internet/multimedia software
$600 PS4 Bundle (sold at loss)
-500 GB hard drive
-PSMotion controller
-PSEye
-motion-based game
I have considered some alternative scenarios, but they tend to have major drawbacks. For example, if Sony goes for a minor upgrade with the PS4, it basically abandons any significant performance advantage that its architecture provides while still being more difficult to harness in software. A more powerful PS4 could be launched in 2011, but that would allow the Natal console to become entrenched, and again, the Xbox would end up defining the visual standard.
Microsoft could introduce the Natal console at $400, but that does not exactly fit in with a major Xbox re-branding effort to de-emphasize the old line, along with its associated reliability problems, nor does it compete as well with the low end.
grandmaster
Veteran
We are in September 2009. The notion of any kind of Xbox 720 or PS4 launch in 2010 is completely and utterly impossible.
I'm right with you, but Sony announce 2010 3D support for PS3, don't known if it's only a 3D support for games, they can have it with a downscale in resolution, and/or also for 3D blu-ray, but from that I'm understand we need HDMI 1.4?
That is a very strong assertion. When I raised this possibility before and strong objections were raised, I believe I asked, "what was known in mid-to-late 2004?" Am I correct in summarizing your view that it would be "completely and utterly impossible" for this secret to be kept until next year? Just for a reference, didn't Microsoft announce the Xbox 360 on MTV in May 2005 for its launch later that same year? Wasn't it true that some of the initial games for the system were very minor (resolution) upgrades of games designed for the previous generation (Gun, King Kong, Madden NFL06, NBA 2K6, NBA Live 2K, Need For Speed, NHL 2K6, Tiger Woods, Tony Hawk)? Quake 4 was ported from the PC. How many platform-specific games did the 360 have at launch? Maybe seven? Were these games known about back in the summer of 2004? And even if they were (I have no idea), would that prove that no relevant studio could keep a secret this time around?
I am not trying to imply that I know what is going to happen next year, but I have not yet heard an argument that comes close to qualifying a 2010 console launch as "impossible". And I certainly have not seen anything yet that rules out the possibility of Microsoft integrating their Natal technology into an "upgraded" version of a 360 by the end of next year. In fact, the computational nature (it requires a CPU and memory) of Natal increases the likelihood of integration with the console to lower its cost. Is it a better strategy for Microsoft to launch the peripheral in 2010, and then integrate it into the console in 2011? Natal looks to me to be a re-branding of Microsoft's gaming machine.
You may want to check that. In the 3D thread, a link shows Sony didn't say that. They're investigating it. And 3D on PS3 and XB360 is out now anyway. They can offer 3D support in their API on the current PS3 for devs who want to use it.
As a public company MS had already released information (in 2004 and before) about contracts with ATI, IBM, a memory maker, etc concerning the Xbox 360. A full block diagram of the 360 was out in the Fall of 2004 (!) and game development was well under way for a number of titles. Maybe you were not around here but the Xbox 360 was a horribly kept secret. iirc Cell was discussed before the official unvieling and the agreement with NV I believe became knowledge in Dec 2004 or Jan 2005.
Publishers and console makers would like to see the current consoles get cheaper (in cost and expense) and the install base grow to recoup the inevitable losses of launching new hardware. Consoles are NOT about cutting edge hardware every 3 years. It is a platform. There is no way companies want to lose access to the ~50M 360/PS3 owners for yet another next gen console.
grandmaster
Veteran
The bottom line is that Sony and Microsoft need to recoup money. They will do so by extending this generation until circa 2012. They will not do so by launching new hardware that fragments their userbase, pissing off both developers and publishers - as well as customers.
Put simply, the market does not need a six core Xenon CPU and beefed up GPU in 2010, and I can predict quite confidentally that Sony will never launch a $500 console again. It was hammered this generation on price and the notion that it will make the same mistake twice is staggering.
It would be an enormous PR own-goal for Microsoft to release Natal with the existing userbase getting a second-class experience compared to the "new" console.
Put simply, the market does not need a six core Xenon CPU and beefed up GPU in 2010, and I can predict quite confidentally that Sony will never launch a $500 console again. It was hammered this generation on price and the notion that it will make the same mistake twice is staggering.
It would be an enormous PR own-goal for Microsoft to release Natal with the existing userbase getting a second-class experience compared to the "new" console.
Just for fun: The Hypothetical Sony Business Decision
Disclaimer: much speculation and over-simplification follows, but hopefully this example illustrates some of the issues involved in determining the next console cycle.
Pretend for a moment that you are the CEO of Sony Computer Entertainment, an important and strategic arm of Sony, a multi-billion dollar world-wide consumer electronics and entertainment corporation. You have gathered a technical advisory team together to both gauge your major competitor and delineate your product options.
Two PS4 designs are available: "5x+" at both 45nm and 32nm, and "10x+" at 32nm
Regarding Microsoft:
"We believe that Microsoft is rebranding the Xbox to appeal to a much broader casual gaming market. They will likely keep their $300 price-point and integrate their motion tech into their console to reduce costs and simplify their product for the non-technical consumer. Being five years since their launch, they will likely also upgrade their hardware capability to make it more competitive with respect to our PS3 offering, but their architecture and price-point limits their upgrade to about two times the 360. Considering the reliability of the 360, we expect the majority of the early-adopters to migrate to the new machine when their 3-year warranty expires."
Your options:
a) Launch in 2010 with the 5x+ design at 45nm @ $500
Rationale: In order to stay competitive with Microsoft at the high-end, we need to counter their upgrade with our own and capture as much of the hardcore market as possible. Our superior capability will set the standard for the next generation of gaming, and we'll be able to lower the price to $400 in 2011 with a process shrink to 32nm. By 2013 it'll be just $300 at 22nm.
b) Launch in 2011 with the 10x+ design at 32nm @ $500
Rationale: We'll counter their Xbox rebranding with a pre-emptive announcement that the PS4 will offer over 10x the performance of the PS3 in one more year. The hard-core will just wait it out, and third parties will have more time to develop software for our platform. Of course we won't be able to drop the price to $400 until the 22nm process shrink in 2013, but we feel that there are at least 20+ million customers willing to pay $500 for a superior machine.
c) Launch in 2011 with the 5x+ design at 32nm @ $400
Rationale: We'll counter their Xbox rebranding with an announcement that the PS4 will offer over 5x the performance of our current model. It shouldn't be a problem to get 20+ million customers to buy our machine before we're able to offer it at $300 in 2013 with a 22nm process.
d) Launch in 2012 with the 10x+ design at 32nm @ $500
Rationale: The next generation starts when we say it does! Our customers will be just fine waiting until 2012 when we blow them away with our new tech. The price will drop to $400 after just a year with the move to 22nm. The PS4 will be ready for the mass market in 2015? when we can get the chips shrunk to 16nm.
e) Aggghhh! Commit seppuku
Rationale: Those ancestral swords were not kept around just for show.
Disclaimer: much speculation and over-simplification follows, but hopefully this example illustrates some of the issues involved in determining the next console cycle.
Pretend for a moment that you are the CEO of Sony Computer Entertainment, an important and strategic arm of Sony, a multi-billion dollar world-wide consumer electronics and entertainment corporation. You have gathered a technical advisory team together to both gauge your major competitor and delineate your product options.
Two PS4 designs are available: "5x+" at both 45nm and 32nm, and "10x+" at 32nm
Regarding Microsoft:
"We believe that Microsoft is rebranding the Xbox to appeal to a much broader casual gaming market. They will likely keep their $300 price-point and integrate their motion tech into their console to reduce costs and simplify their product for the non-technical consumer. Being five years since their launch, they will likely also upgrade their hardware capability to make it more competitive with respect to our PS3 offering, but their architecture and price-point limits their upgrade to about two times the 360. Considering the reliability of the 360, we expect the majority of the early-adopters to migrate to the new machine when their 3-year warranty expires."
Your options:
a) Launch in 2010 with the 5x+ design at 45nm @ $500
Rationale: In order to stay competitive with Microsoft at the high-end, we need to counter their upgrade with our own and capture as much of the hardcore market as possible. Our superior capability will set the standard for the next generation of gaming, and we'll be able to lower the price to $400 in 2011 with a process shrink to 32nm. By 2013 it'll be just $300 at 22nm.
b) Launch in 2011 with the 10x+ design at 32nm @ $500
Rationale: We'll counter their Xbox rebranding with a pre-emptive announcement that the PS4 will offer over 10x the performance of the PS3 in one more year. The hard-core will just wait it out, and third parties will have more time to develop software for our platform. Of course we won't be able to drop the price to $400 until the 22nm process shrink in 2013, but we feel that there are at least 20+ million customers willing to pay $500 for a superior machine.
c) Launch in 2011 with the 5x+ design at 32nm @ $400
Rationale: We'll counter their Xbox rebranding with an announcement that the PS4 will offer over 5x the performance of our current model. It shouldn't be a problem to get 20+ million customers to buy our machine before we're able to offer it at $300 in 2013 with a 22nm process.
d) Launch in 2012 with the 10x+ design at 32nm @ $500
Rationale: The next generation starts when we say it does! Our customers will be just fine waiting until 2012 when we blow them away with our new tech. The price will drop to $400 after just a year with the move to 22nm. The PS4 will be ready for the mass market in 2015? when we can get the chips shrunk to 16nm.
e) Aggghhh! Commit seppuku
Rationale: Those ancestral swords were not kept around just for show.
But if you a CEO, you probably look more at shareholders happiness than tech fans…
So you preferred to relaunch a actual product with some enhancements, so you cut the cost and sale to the fan techs and more important to news customers.
And don't forget you argue that you product have a ten year life… Cut this by two is not a good marketing feature.
Don't think MS made a upgrade of the 360, probably more a relaunch like Sony with the PS3 Slim.
Both still got plenty of "Power" don't use actually, both well done in sale of hardware and software.
So no need of upgrade actually only a relaunch.
So you preferred to relaunch a actual product with some enhancements, so you cut the cost and sale to the fan techs and more important to news customers.
And don't forget you argue that you product have a ten year life… Cut this by two is not a good marketing feature.
Don't think MS made a upgrade of the 360, probably more a relaunch like Sony with the PS3 Slim.
Both still got plenty of "Power" don't use actually, both well done in sale of hardware and software.
So no need of upgrade actually only a relaunch.
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