NPD March 2009

[gongo]

My comments:

NPD March 2009 continues to be depressing for Sony and KZ2 sorta bombed. It is about time to admit that the PS3 is close to redundant on the minds of every would-be NA buyer/gamer. Will a price drop save it? Perhaps one aggressive last burst and a redesigned slim PS3 but i sense it is too late, PS3 would akin to be the one that drops out of the marathon halfway to the finish line. I think the stamina is gone.

KZ2 bomb....can i tell you i had a sinking feeling that Sony would totally f* up their biggest potential and continue the PS3 "tradition" of totally bad marketing. Yes i did have the feeling months before launch and i am sure many observers would too, no? How could they not come with a semi-good campaign? Sony knows how to sell desirable goods or have they lost touched with the new generation?

What games are left in their arsenal? Their best bet GT5, again i sense this series may becoming redundant, while not as bad as the PS3 namesake, the countless delays and changing trend of gaming, even motor racing gaming, GT5 has a lot to live up to and hoping Sony wouldn't f* up the marketing.

Just some comments...

 

[obonicus]

RobertR1 has played the game. I've had discussions about what he thought of it when I was playing him on SF4.

Ah, my apologies, then. Some of the issues he's described are overstated, though.

I've only played the demo, but I was fairly impressed with the graphics, lighting and animation. I thought the overall look was kind of dark for my taste, but after reading the post of people here, it appears to have a bit of a variety not represenative of the demo.

My opinion has always been that actual game quality has little influence on a game's success or lack thereof.

Sony and Insomniac work in very close concert - I'm sure they very much have a say in what happens with their games' releases. And maybe that's all part of it, Insomniac itself might have wanted the Christmas slot, which would make sense.

That's what I was thinking. For all that Insomniac might appreciate being Sony-exclusive, the games they make have to be worth their while. The Christmas slot might've been crucial for that. Of course, that brings up the question of why Sony had two high-profile first-person shooters slotted for the same release date. With GoW3 as probably a 'fiscal 2009' game does Sony even have a big holiday release ready?

Absolutely. Case in point, the 'real world' people I know with PS3's certainly didn't know or care about KZ2, and nor did I try to interest them in it, since my own interest was graphics and technology driven; I knew it wasn't their style. Which is why I think that should have been the points SCE tried to bring out to the public (here is a visual achievement!)... but definitely E3, gaming mags - let alone forums - these are the realm of a very small grouping.

Problem is, I hear it told both ways. 'KZ2 had tons of media exposure, everyone should know about it.' 'Typical PS3 owners just aren't the types to go through forums.' Are 360 owners that much more savvy, is there actually a marked difference in these consoles' install-base? If there is, why do they present similar buying patterns, why do 3rd party games do similarly? But if they're essentially the same demographic, why so little interest in first-party exclusives? Is there really such a thing as a 'Sony fanbase'? What the hell sort of games appeal to these people anyway? I mean, the best Sony got out of Street Fighter were 'meh' ports on the PS1 and late ports on the PS2. How exactly is that a 'Sony' game?

Personally, I don't think any explanation really covers all bases convincingly. I could even combine a whole ton of them and still not explain why Army of Two sold a lot more on the 360 march of last year on a smaller fanbase.

 

[gongo]

Based on my gut feeling from years of gaming, in this cut throat environment, you only have on shot to catch the wind, or should i say the fad. That is the determining factor to success. If your console appears attractive to buyers then the games will come. How does one quantify an attractiv console? I am not too cognitively gifted to come up with the words.

Just gut feelings..instincts like an animal.

 

[patsu]

It is about time to admit that the PS3 is close to redundant on the minds of every would-be NA buyer/gamer.

...at $399/$499.

Will a price drop save it?

A spike, but Sony needs to show that it's still savvy and relevant to gamers, including those who already own a 360. The move will be a costly exercise, and will run against Sony's intention to make a profit now. e.g., A 360 friend just bought a PS3 last week for Blu-ray, but he will need extra reasons to play PS3 games.

Based on my gut feeling from years of gaming, in this cut throat environment, you only have on shot to catch the wind, or should i say the fad. That is the determining factor to success. If your console appears attractive to buyers then the games will come. How does one quantify an attractiv console? I am not too cognitively gifted to come up with the words.

Just gut feelings..instincts like an animal.

It is possible to orchestrate the event/opportunity but Sony has to be willing first.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

It is possible to orchestrate the event/opportunity but Sony has to be willing first.

Not absolutely. You can only encourage the market, not control it. History is replete with ideas that have plain failed, and others that have soared when alternatives haven't. There are no certainties.

 

[Zassk]

Failure of marketing? Again I point to Left 4 Dead. That game saw little to no mass-market advertising, but again, while this probably contributed to a fairly modest initial sales month, sales took off once people got a chance to play the game and see how excellent it was.

Left 4 Dead had huge mass-market TV advertising here in Canada. So did Killzone 2, for that matter. Both games had 30-second ads during every commercial break daily during prime time on multiple TV networks, during their respective peak months. The differences?

1. Left 4 Dead's ad campaign took place during the holiday peak. Killzone 2's ad campaign took place in the dead of winter.
2. Killzone 2's ad never showed in-game graphics. Left 4 Dead's ad did.
3. The names "Killzone 2" and "PS3" were barely visible. Most Canadian TV viewers would have been completely familiar with the ad, but probably could never tell you its name, or that it was a game, or which console it was on.

Typical issues with Sony ads this generation. It's almost like they are afraid to admit that these are games.

Advertising aside...

I think Killzone 2's biggest problem is the time of year that it was released. By "saving" their big hitter and coasting through the holiday on obscure titles, Sony has given the impression that they were scared shitless of Gears of War 2 and COD. This has been the PS3's tentpole title since 2005; it should have been handled as the biggest release of the year. Christmas hype would have done this game so much good. KZ2 would have been mentioned in every article about Gears 2 and COD5, regardless of whether it was considered better or worse than them. This would have been a huge boost at a time when consumers were looking to spend money. The holiday effect was utterly wasted on Resistance 2. What a bad idea that was.

 

[BadTB25]

After some thought, it also appears that most of the big games that Sony has put out for the PS3 are markedly different than what was successful on PS2.

Other than Ratchet and Clank, where are the JRPGs, Final Fantasy and Persona Games, GOW (I know its coming), ICO, etc. It seems that either the 3rd parties or Sony pushed them on to PS2 instead of on PS3. Who would blame them given the size of the PS2 userbase, but at the same time it appears that the PS3 were being pushed non-traditional Playstation titles.

Maybe they would have been better of frontloading Next Gen versions of the above games than shooting for games that were not traditionally a PS2 strength. Also with regard to retail games, MS has been the more agressive of the two to pursue the risky titles (Earth Defense Force, Ochenabara) as well as JRPGs.

 

[Carl B]

Problem is, I hear it told both ways. 'KZ2 had tons of media exposure, everyone should know about it.' 'Typical PS3 owners just aren't the types to go through forums.' Are 360 owners that much more savvy, is there actually a marked difference in these consoles' install-base? If there is, why do they present similar buying patterns, why do 3rd party games do similarly? But if they're essentially the same demographic, why so little interest in first-party exclusives? Is there really such a thing as a 'Sony fanbase'? What the hell sort of games appeal to these people anyway? I mean, the best Sony got out of Street Fighter were 'meh' ports on the PS1 and late ports on the PS2. How exactly is that a 'Sony' game?

If my girlfriend asks me about a game, then I know it's reached the mainstream audience. She did so with Gears back in the day, certainly Halo, and Assassin's Creed is another I recall vividly as standouts she gave more than two seconds thought to. This all being from whatever media exposure reaches someone who is decidedly non-forum, and non-tuned in. She did in fact ask about Killzone after seeing the 'Bullet' commercial, but no matter.

Anyway it's worth noting she always asks what system said game is out for. I would imagine that's sort of a common reaction among the otherwise oblivious, and a reaction that I think would tend to decidedly favor the 360.

I'm not trying to make excuses for KZ2's numbers I should mention - on the contrary, I would have been shocked if it busted the block. For me, the performance is fine; it'll make money, it adds depth to the library, and it'll be a "greatest hit" on the shelf a year from now.

MS has the better name-recognition though in terms of 1st party shooters at the moment, no question. What can I say but, hey, I'm happy to pick up R3 and see what changes they make this time.

 

[Scott_Arm]

Left 4 Dead had huge mass-market TV advertising here in Canada. So did Killzone 2, for that matter. Both games had 30-second ads during every commercial break daily during prime time on multiple TV networks, during their respective peak months. The differences?

1. Left 4 Dead's ad campaign took place during the holiday peak. Killzone 2's ad campaign took place in the dead of winter.
2. Killzone 2's ad never showed in-game graphics. Left 4 Dead's ad did.
3. The names "Killzone 2" and "PS3" were barely visible. Most Canadian TV viewers would have been completely familiar with the ad, but probably could never tell you its name, or that it was a game, or which console it was on.

Typical issues with Sony ads this generation. It's almost like they are afraid to admit that these are games.

Advertising aside...

I think Killzone 2's biggest problem is the time of year that it was released. By "saving" their big hitter and coasting through the holiday on obscure titles, Sony has given the impression that they were scared shitless of Gears of War 2 and COD. This has been the PS3's tentpole title since 2005; it should have been handled as the biggest release of the year. Christmas hype would have done this game so much good. KZ2 would have been mentioned in every article about Gears 2 and COD5, regardless of whether it was considered better or worse than them. This would have been a huge boost at a time when consumers were looking to spend money. The holiday effect was utterly wasted on Resistance 2. What a bad idea that was.

They should have saved KZ2 until Christmas 09 in that case, because there is no way it would have been ready before Christmas 08 anyway.

 

[gongo]

Yes but how long left for Sony to reach the magical 199/249 before gamers grow bored of this gen? Then you look at how strong the Xbox brand has become in NA, the 360 being the direct alternative to PS3, the 360 which occupies the top seller rankings of hardcore software, how many gamers would choose to buy the PS3 over 360? It is very hard now and PS3 could just fade away to the public considering the 360 as the one. It is jump the bandwagon time! Sony cannot even market KZ2 to this public! How many more AAA budget/reviewed games left for Sony to get right their marketing? depressing aint it?

If i were to say this gen resembles last gen, but in reverse! PS3 isto PS2 but reverse growth, spluttering speed instead of picking up over the years. 360 being Xbox, mildly, is the one to chase after Wii ( isto GC which had the early lead over Xbox) success and i could see Wii having 50% share, 360 35% share and PS3 15% in NA markets at the end of the generation.

 

[Carl B]

Gongo get a grip on yourself.

First of all, selling consoles is not Sony's goal, making money is. The system will not fade into obscurity, this I guarantee. It's not a repeat of PS2 for them by any stretch, but the console is doing much better now than it was at launch, the business is profitable again (even if PS3 isn't itself yet), and there's decent games out. Yes, they're going to be 3rd in NA this gen. They'll live to fight another day though; I certainly don't think either abandoning the PS3 effort or slashing the price for desperate market share gains is a move whose outcome is better than simply staying on the present course. When they can cut prices, they will.

 

[dobwal]

Yes, too much competition.
Exactly. There are lots of other shooters that people can buy instead. I'm sure broken multiplayer has capped sales to a degree, but at the end of the day why would anyone who already has one of the plethora of other shooters want to buy KZ2? It's a generic product without a USP to catapult it to stardom. There are also upcoming titles do distract fence-sitters. Haven't got KZ2 yet? Why not wait for MAG...?

Too much competition? The only FPS that have really shown success on the PS3 is COD and to some degree Resistance. None of the FPSes or any PS3 game have really out muscled KZ2 in terms of budgeting, marketing and exposure. It has been pushed by Sony since day one in a way that can be only out rivaled by MS and Halo. Furthermore, even with all the hoopla generated by Sony, it has well recieved by the media which has written AAA all over it and have not readily reported any of its short comings. If you are core gamer who follows traditional gaming media, then KZ2's marketing is equivalent to Sony shining a high powered spot light in your eye from three inches away.

Yet, the game sales have lagged. I think that says more about the userbase than its does about KZ2. There is evidence everywhere that the PS3 userbase doesn't really have the most healthiest appetite for game consumption. Outside of your standard big name cross platform titles and MGS4, software sales have been pretty anemic.

It literally seems like to me there are a significant bunch of gamers on the PS3, who fitted the core gamer mold during the PS2, who have now turned into casual users whose consumption consists of titles that they recognize from the PS2. I don't think its a coincidence that COD, GTA and MGS were all staples on the PS2 system.

 

[BadTB25]

Gongo get a grip on yourself.

First of all, selling consoles is not Sony's goal, making money is. The system will not fade into obscurity, this I guarantee. It's not a repeat of PS2 for them by any stretch, but the console is doing much better now than it was at launch, the business is profitable again (even if PS3 isn't itself yet), and there's decent games out.

These NPD threads are poisonous due to their emphasis on console sell-through as the be-all, end-all metric. I rather we discuss how well the 360 is doing or something rather than always dwelling on 'what Sony needs to do.'

Good points and maybe in the end Sony is more interested in ensuring that the BR format remains successful and dominant. I think the potential for bigger profits lie in ensuring that the studios release the movies in that format more than if the PS3 is successful selling 1st/2nd party titles.

NPD threads are interesting because it allows us to play amatuer sleuth/arm chair quarterbacks. It would have been just as interesting if Halo Wars sold only 200K with the debate being "is the Halo brand name dead". Lately, it is because some PS3 titles are not selling where we think they should. Who knows, next month it could be all about why Wii Fit dropped of the Top 10 (I can hope:smile.

 

[Cheezdoodles]

Because it offers something different, or continues their favourite. Or are you telling me that whoever buys one shooter is likely to buy most of them, and whoever buys FF is likely to buy most JRPGs?

No im not saying that.

What i tried to point out, is that the same answer applies to all these genres.

Your comments upon the shooters being generic and how you couldn't see why anybody would buy a shooter if they allready owned several shooters, applies to any type of genre, not just shooters. And your answer as to why people would buy RPG's when they allready own several RPG's, is the same answer as to why people who own several shooters buy more shooters.

All i tried to do is point out that your argument can be equally well applied to any genre.

 

[gongo]

'what Sony needs to do.' <- This is exactly what its all about, when your competitors are cruising along even in the economic meltdown, so something aint right somewhere up there, somebody is not doing whats needed, no?
If you are not doing the right stuffs, then you are doing the wrong stuffs! Burning whats left of your bridges where time is now of the essence!

 

[Carl B]

'what Sony needs to do.' <- This is exactly what its all about, when your competitors are cruising along even in the economic meltdown, so something aint right somewhere up there, somebody is not doing whats needed, no?
If you are not doing the right stuffs, then you are doing the wrong stuffs! Burning whats left of your bridges where time is now of the essence!

Here's my problem with your reasoning though; is it not true that you're judging success solely by the units of sales metrics? Maybe you need to add some more dimension to your analysis.

 

[Tap In]

I think Multilayer has become the new standard in judging excellence and encouraging more than "acceptable" sales.

there is some heavy competition out there (multiplatform) that makes entering the FPS market a tough one if you don't have your elements just right. Halo 3 for example can't compare to KZ2 visually but the team spends more time on balancing and tweeking and enhancing the multiplayer than possibly any team in history. it shows in the game and in sales and in users almost 2 years after release. Cod struck on a sweet combimnation of factors in 4 with its online... leveleing up in a fair way, ( and re-leveling) FAST jump into game interface, no lag, 60fps, tight controls, lots of game diversity and party/clan systems.

Multiplayer and word of mouth is the future (and present) of FPS. single player is a small market comaprably IMO.

 

[gongo]

Yes but sales and shares are shrinking while Sony PS3 division is still losing money, their direct competitor has more (or less) cement their spot and prime for an explosive growth this year. Sony had a chance to boost PS3 reputation with KZ2 but some way or another they completely blew it. Im feeling uncertain about PS3 future. Worse come to worst, smaller developers may abandon porting to Cell architeture or a small money cheque is enough! This will have the dreaded domino effect.

It is time to react now, no longer for over analysis before it is too late!

 

[obonicus]

If my girlfriend asks me about a game, then I know it's reached the mainstream audience. She did so with Gears back in the day, certainly Halo, and Assassin's Creed is another I recall vividly as standouts she gave more than two seconds thought to. This all being from whatever media exposure reaches someone who is decidedly non-forum, and non-tuned in. She did in fact ask about Killzone after seeing the 'Bullet' commercial, but no matter.

Anyway it's worth noting she always asks what system said game is out for. I would imagine that's sort of a common reaction among the otherwise oblivious, and a reaction that I think would tend to decidedly favor the 360.

I'm not trying to make excuses for KZ2's numbers I should mention - on the contrary, I would have been shocked if it busted the block. For me, the performance is fine; it'll make money, it adds depth to the library, and it'll be a "greatest hit" on the shelf a year from now.

MS has the better name-recognition though in terms of 1st party shooters at the moment, no question. What can I say but, hey, I'm happy to pick up R3 and see what changes they make this time.

I realize you're not defending the sales, I'm honestly stumped. There very well may be something weird about the PS3 fanbase. Is there such a thing as 'Sony' loyalty the SCE execs have talked about? Why are Sony franchises (like DMC -- if there was ever a 'sony' game) selling well on 360 then? At this point I feel like I understand the Wii demographic a little better, and god knows that even Nintendo isn't sure of what they're doing.

 

[Carl B]

Yes but sales and shares are shrinking while Sony PS3 division is still losing money, their direct competitor has more (or less) cement their spot and prime for an explosive growth this year. Sony had a chance to boost PS3 reputation with KZ2 but some way or another they completely blew it. Im feeling uncertain about PS3 future. Worse come to worst, smaller developers may abandon porting to Cell architeture or a small money cheque is enough! This will have the dreaded domino effect.

It is time to react now, no longer for over analysis before it is too late!

Multiplatform is easier now rather than harder, and the Cell better supported rather than less. If you're worried about developers abandoning the PS3, don't be; now more than before it will garner 3rd party support as the devs on their own end seek to target as wide a population as possible.

As for the business end of it, Feb and March were good months for software sales on the system, even if the singular example of KZ2 might have fallen short of some expectations.