NPD March 2010

[patsu]

I dont consider these PS3 to be "hard" shortages either. There seem to have been shipments all along, just not always enough for demand. Where it would cost Sony is Joe Blow walking into Wal Mart and not finding a PS3 that day. But a hardcore gamer could find one, like my brother found one even the harder to get 120 in the last month with a little effort. Or right now for example stock has been nonstop on Amazon for a couple weeks.

Where does your brother live ? I believe Sony brought in some shipment near end of March (Or was it early April ?).

There still seems to be some brick and mortar availability problems still though. Who knows. I have even heard some message board theories that Sony is either limiting supply to limit losses, or producing just enough to meet demand to give the appearance of a sold out product, and things like that. It's pretty impossible to keep up with, I just go with the numbers. I also think we're at a stage where some hardware or other is almost constantly under shortage. I remember in year 5 of PS2 it had shortages.

I have seen a rumor that say Blu-ray drive supply is the cause.

Most credit the shortage to the new PS3 SKU.

Sony itself flagged the shortage in Jan/February citing that the 2009 holiday season cleared more PS3 than they expected.

It would seem silly to restrict PS3 supply just to appear out-of-stock in the middle of so many big title releases.

 

[deepbrown]

Next PSN store is stopped by the volcano to

Lol I'm deadly serious. Food shortages in the UK soon =) Literally no flights mate for three days. Hopefully will be from tomorrow =)

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Lol I'm deadly serious. Food shortages in the UK soon =) Literally no flights mate for three days. Hopefully will be from tomorrow =)

I don't think they use airplanes to transport consoles, except in some rare situations. The Volcano thing sucks though. My brother and his wife are stuck in New York...

 

[Arwin]

In fact, they do use planes for some, but generally not for consoles.

And yeah, I should have been in the South of Spain right now with my wife and kid having a nice holiday, but our flight was cancelled too and now we're not going, will probably postpone until much later this year and maybe plan a much shorter trip by car now. My mother was in tears that we couldn't make it, not fun.

 

[deepbrown]

OK, maybe not for consoles =D Holidays...not too much of a problem. It's the food that's more of a problem - and not for us in the Western world. It's for the people in Africa, Asia and other countries that depend on us to buy their produce - who won't have money to feed their families with much of their produce being perishable. Anyway, OT

 

[eastmen]

I don't think they use airplanes to transport consoles, except in some rare situations. The Volcano thing sucks though. My brother and his wife are stuck in New York...

IF they are in the city and paying for the additional stay is a bit to much. Tell them to look into harmon meadows in Secacus NJ . Its 10 mins from the city and they have some nice hotels that are $150-$250 a night. I know some places in the city are $750 and up for a night

 

[RobertR1]

I'm in the DC area btw as well, so not some village somewhere, and my 'radial' searches via store stock indicators spanned Virginia, DC itself, and Maryland. If the situation in my market has been reflective of the situation in others, Sony has definitely had sales at best pushed back, and at worst - I mean there must be a percentage of these folk that will have dropped off or bought an alternative system if they did not otherwise already own one.

Not enought to matter if the Wii shortages for many YEARS are any indication. People who wanted a Wii waited until they got one. It's not like by the time the stock was plentiful that the consumers had moved on.

 

[Carl B]

Not enought to matter if the Wii shortages for many YEARS are any indication. People who wanted a Wii waited until they got one. It's not like by the time the stock was plentiful that the consumers had moved on.

With the Wii though, I think a lot of it was that it was the Wii specifically that people wanted, and by extension Wii Sports in a sense. Not only that, but the system sort-of broke out of traditional bounds. If you were a next-gen 'hardcore' (I hate that term) holdout though until this past March, and all the hype about FFXIII, GoW3, and the rest of it was swirling around... I could see some folk ready to purchase, yet unable to, simply switching the system they bought and the games they delved into.

I don't claim to have the means to quantify such an effect, and I'm not trying to say it's huge numbers per se, but the PS3 looks today more compelling against its competitors than at most other times in its history. I've wanted to impulse buy several things in the past, not been able to, and never bought them at all when I was later able. I'm not an impulse buyer by nature really so I may not be the best test case, but I don't think an argument can be made for why Sony's shortages were a good thing for the company, even if the underlying reasons may have been part of a larger positive shift on a macro level (referring here to the die shrink on the RSX).

 

[corduroygt]

In fact, they do use planes for some, but generally not for consoles.

And yeah, I should have been in the South of Spain right now with my wife and kid having a nice holiday, but our flight was cancelled too and now we're not going, will probably postpone until much later this year and maybe plan a much shorter trip by car now. My mother was in tears that we couldn't make it, not fun.

It's not a long drive from where you live, why don't you drive or take the train?
Well at least in US proportions, that's not a long drive for a vacation

 

[Arwin]

It's not a long drive from where you live, why don't you drive or take the train?
Well at least in US proportions, that's not a long drive for a vacation

Ehm, it's 20-22 hours to the South of Spain, where my mother lives. If she lived in the North of Spain, we'd have been underway by now. If it were two of me I think I might have done it regardless, but my wife doesn't really like driving long distances and my 'a-month-shy-of-two-year-old' son isn't helping matters there either ...

 

[RobertR1]

With the Wii though, I think a lot of it was that it was the Wii specifically that people wanted, and by extension Wii Sports in a sense. Not only that, but the system sort-of broke out of traditional bounds. If you were a next-gen 'hardcore' (I hate that term) holdout though until this past March, and all the hype about FFXIII, GoW3, and the rest of it was swirling around... I could see some folk ready to purchase, yet unable to, simply switching the system they bought and the games they delved into.

I don't claim to have the means to quantify such an effect, and I'm not trying to say it's huge numbers per se, but the PS3 looks today more compelling against its competitors than at most other times in its history. I've wanted to impulse buy several things in the past, not been able to, and never bought them at all when I was later able. I'm not an impulse buyer by nature really so I may not be the best test case, but I don't think an argument can be made for why Sony's shortages were a good thing for the company, even if the underlying reasons may have been part of a larger positive shift on a macro level (referring here to the die shrink on the RSX).

In the end, it all balances out. People who want a PS3 will either find one as 313,000 managed to do this last month or wait until one is readily available.

What you might lose on an impulse buy now, you can certainly pick up later. btw, I'm still not sold that $299 is an impulse buy for most. I'd say that majority of the PS3 purchases are pre meditated and impulse buy figures aren't enough to greatly skew numbers.

 

[Carl B]

In the end, it all balances out. People who want a PS3 will either find one as 313,000 managed to do this last month or wait until one is readily available.

What you might lose on an impulse buy now, you can certainly pick up later. btw, I'm still not sold that $299 is an impulse buy for most. I'd say that majority of the PS3 purchases are pre meditated and impulse buy figures aren't enough to greatly skew numbers.

I guess it depend on how loosely we define 'impulse.' If a buyer was looking because they were enamored with God of War 3, who says that that game is still their primary interest two months from now? Could it be a 360 game instead? I think you are viewing it in terms of "PS3, when to get one," and I am viewing it as "I want a next-gen console, which to get." Not *everyone* this gen is going to own all consoles after all, and I think we really do have to expect that for most people, it will be either the PS3, or the 360 that they end up with. So not really whether these PS3-less shoppers will have the opportunity or not later, but whether they might ultimately get the 360 instead by the time the PS3 becomes an easy pick-up.

Could ~300K in console sales have been 500K... or greater? It is what it is, and it's all speculation - very admittedly on my part as well. Actually in the 'distribution events' thread, I highlighted one positive for Sony as being a funneling of people towards the 250GB unit, which I believe carries a much greater profit angle for them, so at least there has been that for Sony.

The most important thing here is simply the recognition and acknowledgment that for the time being, and in a very widespread way, Sony has very real shortages on its hands.

 

[Zaphod]

I am viewing it as "I want a next-gen console, which to get."

I think the PS3 might now (finally) be positioned to get some "water-cooler purchases". I mean, up until last year, what was the PS3 owners going to talk about in the beak lounge? There just weren't enough of them around to get any office buzz going about exclusives. Of course there would be exceptions, but in general I expect one were much more likely to hear about multiplatform titles (or, to a lesser degree, Xbox exclusives). On-the-fence-Bob who doesn't live in the same bubble as many forum-dwellers might be swayed by an earful about the awesomeness that is GoW3 and that he needs a PS3 to play it.

That is if he can easily get one. I'm not sure if he'll stay a committed purchaser if next week the talk has turned to something else entirely.

 

[boommoob1]

People saying their were not shortages are laughable. Isn't their a dedicated thread for it

There's been shortages since the mid January. That's a fact.

The PS3 as a whole has probably been profitable for a few months now so limiting losses isnt the reason.

 

[Tap In]

There's been shortages since the mid January. That's a fact.

The PS3 as a whole has probably been profitable for a few months now so limiting losses isnt the reason.

read CarlBs posts for definitive (as possible) info without knee jerk conclusions

 

[holsty101]

Well to be fair to boommoob1 there was, IIRC, a quote (taken from a conference call?) ~2-3 months ago by a Sony head of something-or-other that the ps3 business as a whole was break even/profitable.

 

[Rolf N]

Re profitability or not, the quarterly earnings report for CQ1/2010 should be coming up soonish. I have no idea if there's a proper schedule for these, but going by past releases, we should have it on the 6th or 7th of May I think.

 

[Carl B]

we should have it on the 6th or 7th of May I think.

May 15th is the date for their next earnings release.

 

[Rolf N]

May 15th is the date for their next earnings release.

Ok, thanks. To me the past few dates looked like "first Thursday or Friday in month #2 after end of quarter". Apparently that's not it!
Is there a particular pattern, or are these elastically scheduled dates, that fall whenever it's most convenient?

 

[Carl B]

Is there a particular pattern, or are these elastically scheduled dates, that fall whenever it's most convenient?

To correct myself, it's actually May 13th for the next call, firstly.

As for the patterns, I don't think they have requirements beyond scheduling them within a timely manner from close of the quarter. Keep in mind though this is year-end as well. 4th quarter (1st quarter calendar) is generally Sony's weakest in isolation, but should be an interesting call/report.