NPD February 2005

[marconelly!]

There still seems to be some kind of localized shortage for both PS2 and Xbox. No idea why.

Still, this is the most PS2 has EVER sold in february, and by quite a margin. Crazy.

 

[Ooh-videogames]

423,000 for RE4 so far in its first 2 months, not bad. I previously predicted 700,000 by the end of the year in the U.S. I think I'll change my prediction to 800,000 now.

What about you Almasy? Are you sticking with your 600,000 prediction? That's a serious question and not a wind up BTW

I see the title having long legs, worth of mouth has been good for it. So I concur. But with a price reduction(if it happens), your prediction might be somewhat low. I can see this title being apart of a bundle in the future.

 

[Almasy]

423,000 for RE4 so far in its first 2 months, not bad. I previously predicted 700,000 by the end of the year in the U.S. I think I'll change my prediction to 800,000 now.

What about you Almasy? Are you sticking with your 600,000 prediction? That's a serious question and not a wind up BTW

Mmmm...lifetime or to the end of the year?? If it´s to the end of 2005, I´m sticking to 600k.

Lifetime? Yeah, it´s got a chance to get to 800k, after it´s been included in some bundles and has been included in the PC line.

Oh, and wasn´t this Xbox´s best february to date? Based on that, I don´t think there´s much of a shortage going on, at least not as massive as PS2´s during the holiday season.

 

[jvd]

No way. Recalled units are very old ones... or are they still in stock? Razz

It depends . Places like gamestop have warehouses and the warehouses get shipments nad then ship them out . Depending on how well the warehouse is managed you can have units that are over a year old .

Gamestop found about 1000 lime green n64s last year in the warehouse

But yea there are old and new units floating around , same with ps2

 

[Teasy]

I'm talking just about this year alone. Its sold 423,000 in two months so far and should be either at or very close to 500,000 by the end of March. Then there will still be another 9 months till the end of the year.

Eventually, after a price drop, I think it will pass 1 million in the U.S.

 

[Lazy8s]

The nation's largest video game retailer, Wal-Mart, has carried signs at many of their stores the past several months indicating no stock of Xbox systems at all, citing manufacturer supply issues.

 

[Almasy]

I'm talking just about this year alone. Its sold 423,000 in two months so far and should be either at or very close to 500,000 by the end of March. Then there will still be another 9 months till the end of the year.

Eventually, after a price drop, I think it will pass 1 million in the U.S.

I´m sticking to my prediction, I think the drop will be even more pronounced in March (if it reaches 50k, it´ll surprise me), non-Nintendo GCN titles just don´t have legs.

So...yeah, I´m sticking to 600k.

 

[Almasy]

The nation's largest video game retailer, Wal-Mart, has carried signs at many of their stores the past several months indicating no stock of Xbox systems at all, citing manufacturer supply issues.

I see...then we´ll have to wait until the shortage is over to see how serious it really is. Just look at PS2´s numbers.

 

[Teasy]

Ok but I'm very confident it will pass 600,000 quite easily this year. Looking at sales trends of past RE games on GC RE4 should comfortably reach my estimate by the end of the year. Time will tell though.

 

[Ty]

Have their ever been official bundles with non-first party titles? If not, then I don't forsee RE4 breaking that trend (it's from Capcom, not Nintendo, right? - just making 100% sure). Therefore any bundling that occurs will be at the retail level and will not have any where near the impact that an official bundle would.

 

[Teasy]

There's an official Platinum RE4 bundle being released in Europe on the 18th:

http://cube.ign.com/articles/584/584777p1.html

 

[Lazy8s]

Ty:

Have their ever been official bundles with non-first party titles?

Nintendo may have done it with a SEGA GameCube game in some territory before, and Microsoft definitely did it when they packed the Xbox in with Jet Set Radio Future and SEGA GT 2002. Microsoft has also bundled their system with other third-party titles from time to time.

 

[jvd]

any word on the ds numbers ?

 

[hovz]

edited by moderator:

No more trolling for tonight. It's time for you to go.

 

[Ty]

Teasy,

Interesting. Here in the states I couldn't think of an official bundle at least in recent times. Maybe the flexibility that NOE is showing will move over to NOA as well.

Lazy,

That's true re: Xbox. I was focused on Nintendo though (MS didn't/doesn't really have the 1st party presence of Nintendo - i.e. they had to go some where else) so I wasn't considering other companies. Has Nintendo ever done this in America? I can't recall but I didn't buy many of the older Nintendo consoles.

 

[AzBat]

Crazy Idea #1:

Lack of Xbox in channel could be deliberate to get ready for Xbox2 and/or a new Xbox1 design.

Chatting with my cousin over the weekend about Xbox2, we got into a discussion about what will happen with the Xbox1. Hasn't it been at $150 for almost a 1.5 years? Will Microsoft announce price drops to $125 or $100? Is it possible they found a way to reduce the size of the Xbox to allow the new lower price? Is the mini-Xbox rumor true? WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN TO XBOX1 AT E3?

Crazy Idea #2:

Quit manufacturing Xbox1 with Intel and NVIDIA parts. Start using IBM and ATI parts instead.

If Xbox2 is backward compatible, could Microsoft take low performing Xbox2 CPU and GPU parts(less cores and ALUs) and use them in a low-cost Xbox1? Make power supply external. Use a top-loading DVD drive. What about hard drive? Could include just 2.25GB flash drive instead and move all gamesaves to memory cards. Bad thing, no music support and 2.25GB is still expensive. Maybe they provide support for external iPod like device?

I'm just kinda thinking out loud here. I don't really think Microsoft would do this, but you never know.

Anyway, in my mind I'm still wondering what Microsoft's Xbox1 exit strategy. Could be as interesting as Xbox2.

Tommy McClain

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Crazy Idea #1:

Lack of Xbox in channel could be deliberate to get ready for Xbox2 and/or a new Xbox1 design.

No. There's been plenty of discussion here before about why an XBox shrink isn't possible. I wouldn't be surprised if they don't drop XB's price. MS want to maximise XB2's take up and want to cut their losses with XB1. Dropping it's price might take a little attention from XB2. Or they might, and increase the XB1 base ready for later upgrades. But I wouldn't be surprised if they drop support for XB1 like a hot potato as soon as they get chance.

Crazy Idea #2:

Quit manufacturing Xbox1 with Intel and NVIDIA parts. Start using IBM and ATI parts instead.

No. Games written to a closed hardare (not PC) make use of the particular implementations of the hardware. If it were possible to swap Intel and nVidia parts with IBM and ATi, there wouldn't be all this problem getting backwards compatibilty that we hear of.

I think MS will cut all 1st party support for XB and go whole hog trying to push XB2 as hard as possible before the competition arrives. Why waste money writing Fable2 for XB when it'll be a lot better on XB2 and give more incentive for early adoption? Dunno how long XB1 will last after that. PS1 has managed to keep going but it's had no competition - the Saturn and N64 are long gone. XB1 will still be losing money, losing out to PS2. What's the point in keeping it going and sucking down those lovely XB2 profits?

 

[AzBat]

Crazy Idea #1:

Lack of Xbox in channel could be deliberate to get ready for Xbox2 and/or a new Xbox1 design.

No. There's been plenty of discussion here before about why an XBox shrink isn't possible.

Agreed, but that doesn't pertain to CI#1 does it? You say below that MS will drop Xbox1 "like a hot potato". Doesn't that mean you agree MS has deliberately decreased manufacturing of the Xbox1 to make way for Xbox2?

I wouldn't be surprised if they don't drop XB's price. MS want to maximise XB2's take up and want to cut their losses with XB1. Dropping it's price might take a little attention from XB2. Or they might, and increase the XB1 base ready for later upgrades. But I wouldn't be surprised if they drop support for XB1 like a hot potato as soon as they get chance.

I don't see how Microsoft can get away with NOT dropping the price. The slim-styled PS2 and the upcoming launch of Xbox2 dictates it. Whether they drop the price $25 or $50 is the question.

Crazy Idea #2:

Quit manufacturing Xbox1 with Intel and NVIDIA parts. Start using IBM and ATI parts instead.

No. Games written to a closed hardare (not PC) make use of the particular implementations of the hardware. If it were possible to swap Intel and nVidia parts with IBM and ATi, there wouldn't be all this problem getting backwards compatibilty that we hear of.

I agree that software emulation does have its drawbacks, but we're still not sure if it is software or hardware emulation. If and when they solve it, I could see MS using it as a way to drop Intel and NVIDIA. Provided it's a solution that supports almost all the current and future titles. Don't take this to mean I think it is any way comparable to a PC. I completely understand it's not. But you can't sit there and seriously tell me that if MS found a way to quit buying expensive Intel and NVIDIA components, they wouldn't take advantage of it? Come on.

I think MS will cut all 1st party support for XB and go whole hog trying to push XB2 as hard as possible before the competition arrives. Why waste money writing Fable2 for XB when it'll be a lot better on XB2 and give more incentive for early adoption? Dunno how long XB1 will last after that. PS1 has managed to keep going but it's had no competition - the Saturn and N64 are long gone. XB1 will still be losing money, losing out to PS2. What's the point in keeping it going and sucking down those lovely XB2 profits?

Well, I seriously doubt MS drops all first party support for the platform. Especially if backward compatibility is not provided. I do know EA and some other game developers were not too pleased about the PS1 to PS2 transition. They thought they still had potential sales and were not in much of a hurry to see the arrival of PS2. I'm not saying that we have the same issue here, but I could understand if a lot of developers who have just released games for the Xbox1 or will be in the coming months, may not be too happy to see them left stranded. That's why I see MS still supporting the platform, dropping the price and possibly releasing a smaller version. Isn't that the whole point of XNA? XNA is not just about PC and Xbox2. It's also about Xbox1.

Granted, I do believe Microsoft will decrease their first party support and concentrate on Xbox2. But I can't see them doing in such a way to piss of developers and consumers.

Tommy McClain

 

[Carl B]

I don't know AzBat, I'm kind of with ShiftyGeezer on this one.

XBox is such such a brutal money loser for Microsoft, a $50 price drop - all it really means is that they are losing an addtional $50 per console sold. And with strong Xbox1 titles that are pretty recent, I could imagine people buying an XBox in the near future would probably not participate in the Christmas Xbox 2 fun that Microsoft would much prefer.

I think that in general, XBox won't be selling too well this year, due both to pricing and channel availability, and the emphasis on XBox 2. I mean, I wouldn't even be surprised if GameCube took back it's number 2 spot in a pretty strong way this year with the Resident Evil 4 hype and other strong titles coming out (Zelda).

For Microsoft, I really feel all the emphasis is going to be XBox 2.

 

[AzBat]

I don't know AzBat, I'm kind of with ShiftyGeezer on this one.

XBox is such such a brutal money loser for Microsoft, a $50 price drop - all it really means is that they are losing an addtional $50 per console sold. And with strong Xbox1 titles that are pretty recent, I could imagine people buying an XBox in the near future would probably not participate in the Christmas Xbox 2 fun that Microsoft would much prefer.

I think that in general, XBox won't be selling too well this year, due both to pricing and channel availability, and the emphasis on XBox 2. I mean, I wouldn't even be surprised if GameCube took back it's number 2 spot in a pretty strong way this year with the Resident Evil 4 hype and other strong titles coming out (Zelda).

For Microsoft, I really feel all the emphasis is going to be XBox 2.

I totally agree, but you can't be suggesting that Microsoft is going to continue selling the Xbox1 in its current form at $150 till its death? Or are you suggesting that MS will stop selling Xbox1 altogether?

Microsoft understands that any customers that have bought Xbox1 consoles in the past 6 months or in the future are more than likely not going to be buying Xbox2 consoles this year. They're going to be buying Xbox1 games. Usually that means new games coming in the next year. Developers are not going to continue releasing new Xbox1 games if Microsoft doesn't do something about the Xbox1. I believe it's absolutely critical that Microsoft either drop the price or release a cheaper to produce version. You definitely know Sony is going to drop the price of the PS2. Low Xbox1 sales and the slow uptake to Xbox2 could possibly see PS2 and NGC sales possibly passing both Xbox consoles. Microsoft can't afford to loose face on the Xbox1 going into the release of the Xbox2.

Tommy McClain