Acert93 said:Platform Revenue Units
:shakes head:
While I am not too happy with the fact Nintendo's home console platform is not going the direction to provide me (specifically me) the games I want, they obviously are doing a LOT right.
Or their relying too much on in house development and not third party support
NPD May 2005
- Thread starter mckmas8808
- Start date
I would love to see the hard data that supports this, tho, but my memory is the same as yours. If so, the two data curves (for PS1 and PS2) would look almost identical, both in terms of real numbers and in terms of time elapsed. In which case, MS had no effect on their release date for PS3.jvd said:
Anyone know of a good source for game sales data?
.Sis
Please , If you had a console that was still selling strongly after 5 years would u be rushing to replace it ? Not at all. Sony has no choice. Becuase even though the ps2 will have the most software sold till most likely 2007. If ms gets a large enough lead this gen the ps3 will be dead in the water
But that flies in the face the PS2 entry, right? Your quote here:jvd said:
indicates that they replaced the PS1 with the PS2 in roughly the same circumstances. Unless you're suggesting that the Dreamcast forced Sony's hand in the last generation?
My take on the situation--my opinion--is that MS is sticking it to Sony by manuvering the Xbox 360 launch forcing Sony to be much more aggressive about their release, prematurely ending the most profitable period of a conoles lifetime. And Sony can do nothing but go along with it. I'm just looking for some data to back this up.
.Sis
the ps1 and ps2 are in very diffrent places. The psone started loosing steam much sooner than the ps2. The psone at the same point in time was 100$ . The ps2 should have been 100$ for the 2004 x mass season. Actually this season the ps2 going by the psone life would be 100$ with a 4 inch monitor . As that is how much my little sisters psone for her car cost the x mass before the ps2 launch .
Your going to see a major squeezing of the ps2 once the x360 launches
last generation was a bit diffrent . Sony had the dc up front but then got hit with the xbox and gc. I think if they had wiated another year it would have hurt the ps2 alot
This gen is the same. I'm sure they wanted to keep going with the ps2 . They make money off each sold and could prob sell another 50 million units if there was no x360 and ps3 . However if sony wants to be in this position in 5 years they can't let the x360 stay on the market it self for to long
mckmas8808
Legend
That'll never happen. The name PLAYSTATION is too strong. Dead in the water never. Maybe not as good as the PS2 but not dead in the water. MS isn't that ready. The 70 million user advantage is too large for dead in the water.
sonycowboy
Newcomer
jvd said:
I don't see why this should be the case. The buyers ARE NOT the same. The people who are buying the PS2 @ $149, $129, & $99 are VALUE conscious buyers. They aren't the ones dying to get a game system or they would have gotten one sometime in the past 5 years.
This group of consumers buy the systems when it reaches their "sweet" spot in terms of retail price.
As you've already said, the Playstation is WAYY ahead of the PSOne at similar points in their lifecycle. Sony sold over 50% of their PSOne's after they lowered the price to $129.
I don't see any reason at all why the PS2 won't enjoy similar success at the $129 and/or $99 price point. They've got tens of millions of systems left to sell. They also have a much, much stronger pipeline of games over the next 12 months than the PSOne had in 1999/2000. By far.[/b]
mckmas8808
Legend
Hence why I think that Sony can sell 150 million PS2s in its lifecycle. Can you imagne the smile on those guys faces. And with the PLAYSTATION brand that deep into people's lives, the PS3 should be more than ok next-gen.
sonycowboy
Newcomer
Sis said:
1) The PS3 doesn't come out till next year. Expect 15-20M more units shipped with holiday sales in 3 regions at either a $129 or $99 price point.
2) No. The PSOne only shipped 35% of thier LTD total today after the PS2 launched = 35M Units 8) (That would mean that Sony would end up over 230M if the same were true today. Obviously, this won't be the case, as this generation was much more frontloaded as the PSOne took some time to take hold).
sonycowboy
Newcomer
Sis said:
I'm comparing shipment data as opposed to sales data. We've got good US & Japan sales numbers for both systems, but overall North America, rest of Asia, and Europe are very hard to come by. So, the only complete numbers are the shipment numbers by Sony. They update thier shipment numbers every quarter.
It's certainly a leading number but statisically, it allows for valid comparison between the PSOne and PS2.
http://www.scei.co.jp/corporate/data/index_e.html
First, the link is much appreciated--it's been really annoying not being able to find some type of real data.sonycowboy said:
If you look at the data, you get year end shipments like this:
Code:
Year PS1 PS2
1994 1
1995 2.4
1996 6.6
1997 18.2 0
1998 22.5 0
1999 21.12 0
2000 9.57 6.4
2001 9.68 18.59
2002 5.93 24.6These numbers definitely prove out that releasing the PS2 had a severe impact on PS1 sales.
What's still at question is whether Sony does this as part of the product's natural life cycle-- in which case I would expect them to wait a little longer --or if they do it in the face of competitive threat, in which case who was the competitor?
One other big factor would be platform game unit sales, since this is where the profit is. Perhaps there is some sales trend there that would shed further light on this.
Either way, you have to respect their seemingly great insight into how to ship a next generation of a console and in fact, they seem to be marching to the exact same drum this generation.
.Sis
mckmas8808
Legend
Sis said:
You are know enlighten my friend. 8) To be honest I don't think MS is forcing Sony's hand that much. Without MS I think Sony would have came out with the PS3 this fall for sure in the U.S. and Europe. But because of MS they may come out this Spring.
I disagree. Sony went on record saying MS were pushing too early, and I'm sure if XB360 weren't coming Sony would wait until they had 65 nm for Cell.
mckmas8808
Legend
How long do you think that would take?
They were hoping for it but KK said they'd have to give it a miss for Spring '06 (or whenever PS3 launches). I'd place PS3 into early '07, or December '06, as ideal for Sony, with an extra 8 months development and 65 nm from the off with 1:8 Cell at maybe 4 GHz, depending on how good 65nm really is.
sonycowboy
Newcomer
Shifty Geezer said:
I'd agree that the PS3 is launching earlier than Sony might have hoped given their current status w/ the Cell and their GPU. But I think there had always been thought that they might launch in mid-2006, with 2007 only getting press because of how the CELL has progressed (or not) over the years.
In either case, I'd say that the PS2 will certainly be impacted by next generation, but it's clearly bettering the trail of the PSOne by a very, very healthy margin and is on track to a truly spectacular number.
1) It will pass PSOne shipments by calendar end 2005, first quarter 2006 at the latest.
2) Developers have been EXTREMELY vocal regarding continued development support well through 2008 as they left WAAYYY too much money on the table last generation by jumping too heavily into next generation development. Their were an additional 35M+ PSOne units that sold with ANY new frontline software. Publishers could have feasted on those new buyers.
3) The PS2 is still $149, when it had already been $99 for almost a year at this point in the life cycle. The PS2 has sold more units at comparable llfecycles by such an incredible margin, it's eye-popping. Look at this graphic for reference (and it's only gotten better w/ the $149 price point)
IMO, I'm 50/50 on whether or not Sony will drop the price to $99 late this year or just go with $129. Neither price drop will affect the 360 launch in the slightest as the hardcore WILL be buying as many as they make and Microsoft will be lucky to have anywhere near enough supply to meet demand.[/img]
All things considered, I'd imagine they'd want a little more breathing room, just because, but historically they seem to be on the same trajectory--if not price wise, at least in terms of console units sold.sonycowboy said:
So while conjecture tells us they are shipping earlier than they'd like, I don't see any hard facts to prove this.
Note that this is the exact opposite as I earlier stated, where I thought MS made a great play in forcing Sony's hand. But as much as I like that theory, I haven't been able to back it up with real numbers or a smoking gun.
I still think it's crazy on Sony's part, but then again, when's the last time I've successfully launched back-to-back console generations?
.Sis
Yup its 149$ but that doesn't mean it will sell more at 100$ . It all depends on when the price drops . If it drops for this holiday then it will sell alot this holiday but expect a large drop off next holiday and the holiday after that sales will be non existant just like the psone .
claiming another 25-30 million units shipped is not an easy claim . That is a heck of a lot of units for a 5 year old console . Esp for one that can look very very ugly in a few months
