NPD May 2005

[sonycowboy]

3) The PS2 is still $149, when it had already been $99 for almost a year at this point in the life cycle. The PS2 has sold more units at comparable llfecycles by such an incredible margin, it's eye-popping. Look at this graphic for reference (and it's only gotten better w/ the $149 price point)

Yup its 149$ but that doesn't mean it will sell more at 100$ . It all depends on when the price drops . If it drops for this holiday then it will sell alot this holiday but expect a large drop off next holiday and the holiday after that sales will be non existant just like the psone .

claiming another 25-30 million units shipped is not an easy claim . That is a heck of a lot of units for a 5 year old console . Esp for one that can look very very ugly in a few months

Do you know how ugly the PSOne was compared to the dreamcast. We'll likely NEVER see that jump again

25-30M more units is a lock, IMO. It would require a market collapse and a complete loss of the $99 and $79 price points like has never been seen.

Keep in mind that both Europe and Japan's current PS2 price points are ABOVE $149. So, they've likely got three bounces to go based on price points. The US might have two or three ($129, $99, $79) based on if Sony goes straight to a $99 price point later this year.

 

[jvd]

Do you know how ugly the PSOne was compared to the dreamcast. We'll likely NEVER see that jump again

yup and a ton of people bought the dreamcast over the psone. That isn't a good example for you to bring up . The dc only had a 100$ price diffrence. The main problem in our store was at first we didn't hae enough dreamcasts and then sony's ps2 hype killed it .

25-30M more units is a lock, IMO. It would require a market collapse and a complete loss of the $99 and $79 price points like has never been seen.

Market collapse ? No , simply an exodus of users going to next gen . 100$ and 79$ are nice prices but just like the psone with the new consoles out the sales will beging to drop off to nothing .

Keep in mind that both Europe and Japan's current PS2 price points are ABOVE $149. So, they've likely got three bounces to go based on price points. The US might have two or three ($129, $99, $79) based on if Sony goes straight to a $99 price point later this year.

The price means nothing if its not droped at the right time . If sony drops the ps2 to 130$ this holiday then its not going to hit another 25-30 million units . Next year against the ps3 , ns5 and x360 the 100$ price point will barely help it sell and by 2007 the next gen systems will be dropining in price and the one advantage the pstwo really has will be shrinking and thats its game library

 

[Fafalada]

100$ and 79$ are nice prices but just like the psone with the new consoles out the sales will beging to drop off to nothing

I don't know if I'd call that a dropoff to nothing - PSOne sold an additional 30Milion over last 5 years - and it did so with minimal software support.
PS2 will by all accounts continue with much stronger support, which should keep it alive much easier.

 

[scooby_dooby]

I think of sony drops the PS2 to $129 or $99 they will definately sell alot of them, there's no doubt about it. Bargain gamers will view that as a great deal, which it would be, and it would keep selling.

I think there are a couple of differences between this and PS1 though:

- PS1 had many more games than the PS2 does (PS2 ~ 2000, PS1 ~10,000 - correct me if those are wrong #'s)

- edit duh brain fart

Despite those issues though, I don't see how PS2 will not continue selling, ALOT expecialy with a $99 price point. However, alot really depends on how quickly the X360 drops in price. Once it gets down to $150 or so, the PS2 will not look so attractive at $99 or even $79.

I believe it's one of MS's strategies is to put the pressure on Sony price-wise, they know they have a cheaper system and will use that advantage to try and take market share.

 

[Tap In]

at $99, PS2's would move by the boatload all through next year IMO.

 

[SanGreal]

Notes: Sony's FY ends in March, so FY04 ending in March '05, FY05 ends in March '06, etc.

I think the graph helps illustrate that the PS1 was at the height of its popularity when the PS2 shipped, compared to the PS2's popularity currently declining.

(I know the data was posted earlier, I just find the graph helpful)[/img]

 

[mckmas8808]

Great find SanGreal but you have to remember that the PSone was priced at $99 when it sold that 18 million units in 1999. The PS2 is still $149. Once the price hits $99 more people will buy it. A console at $99 with FF XII and plenty of new games being supported in 2006 is powerful.

PS1 doubled as a DVD player which used to be very desirable. Now $40 DVD players are not uncommon, so there's almost no incentive to buy a PS2 as a DVD player.

Oh and Scooby the PS1 couldn't play DVDs, so that point can't be correct.

 

[sonycowboy]

yup and a ton of people bought the dreamcast over the psone. That isn't a good example for you to bring up . The dc only had a 100$ price diffrence. The main problem in our store was at first we didn't hae enough dreamcasts and then sony's ps2 hype killed it .

The PSOne KILLED the dreamcast in head to head sales, in every region, by a LARGE margin. Sure, there were individuals that chose the DC vs the PSOne, but the market by-and-large bought the PSOne. In fact, up until early 2003, the PSOne outsold both the Xbox and the Gamecube.

Market collapse ? No , simply an exodus of users going to next gen . 100$ and 79$ are nice prices but just like the psone with the new consoles out the sales will beging to drop off to nothing .[/quote]

Again, I think you're thinking too much about what board members would do. The market that exists for $129 & $99 consoles WILL NOT all of a sudden buy $300 consoles. It just won't happen. You could argue that the buyers from last generation that bought systems at $99 are now "real gamers" and are now ready to buy the next generation consoles at launch, but there's absolutely no reason to believe that this will be true. The market still has not reached the whole world so, you'd be assuming that there are less consumers to reach with the PS2 than with the PSOne.

The price means nothing if its not droped at the right time . If sony drops the ps2 to 130$ this holiday then its not going to hit another 25-30 million units . Next year against the ps3 , ns5 and x360 the 100$ price point will barely help it sell and by 2007 the next gen systems will be dropining in price and the one advantage the pstwo really has will be shrinking and thats its game library

Again, this is just not correct. The next-generation systems DO NOT kill the current generation systems in year one. It just doesn't happen. And it's even less likely to happen this next generation than in the past as the PS2 will enjoy more front line titles than any system in history once the next generation starts and most likely has the smallest technical jump in history as well.

There's simply too much history to discard to come to the conclusion that the PS2 platform will drop off of the face of the market in 2006 & 2007.

 

[mckmas8808]

And it's even less likely to happen this next generation than in the past as the PS2 will enjoy more front line titles than any system in history once the next generation starts and most likely has the smallest technical jump in history as well.

I agree with everything that you have said in this thread except the smallest technical jump in history part. Most people in videogame blog world are just underestimating what next-gen system will be able to do.

Once next-gen shows its face this thought will never be brought up again. It will be at least on par with what the PSone to PS2 gave us.`

 

[sonycowboy]

Notes: Sony's FY ends in March, so FY04 ending in March '05, FY05 ends in March '06, etc.

I think the graph helps illustrate that the PS1 was at the height of its popularity when the PS2 shipped, compared to the PS2's popularity currently declining.

(I know the data was posted earlier, I just find the graph helpful)[/img]

The point to remember is that Sony has artificially extended this generation with regards to price points. There was never a $179 price point and that price point essentially stalled hardware sales for a full year as opposed to the accelleration that we've normally seen. In addition, Sony mangled the PS2 -> PSTwo transition by bleeding the market and having production problems such that they experienced a 6-7 month shortage thus again stalling the impact of the $149 price point.

I think that the extraordinary PS2 sales in both Europe and NA in 2005, show that there was significant pent up demand for the PS2 and that the $149 price point still has some months to go before exhausting that tier of consumers.

Then we get to go onto the $129 and/or $99 price point, which is historically the single largest price point adoption spot.

Of course, we're not going to decide anything here, and we'll likely be forced to deal with the "why the hell is the PS2 still selling so much" comment for years to come. However, IMO, you are significantly underselling the significance of the $129/$99/$79 price points for console sales.

EDIT: Also, IMO, Sony has SEVERELY underestimated FY 2006 shipments at 12M units. IMO, a) they will easily pass 12M, to probably 14-16M units and b) that may signal that the $99 price point WILL NOT happen this year. Because, there's absolutely no way in the world, they'll only ship 12M with a full holiday season @ $99 in multiple regions. Just not possible. Either they're boing coy with the numbers or that drop ain't happening.

 

[jvd]

The PSOne KILLED the dreamcast in head to head sales, in every region, by a LARGE margin. Sure, there were individuals that chose the DC vs the PSOne, but the market by-and-large bought the PSOne. In fact, up until early 2003, the PSOne outsold both the Xbox and the Gamecube.

Great , thats nice. Read my post . I said the problem was that at first we didn't have enough dreamcasts . Reading helps when having discusions

Again, I think you're thinking too much about what board members would do. The market that exists for $129 & $99 consoles WILL NOT all of a sudden buy $300 consoles.

The market that would wiat to buy a 130$ device over a 150$ device is very very small . The diffrence between the 150$ adn 100 is bigger . At each stage you get stragglers that will go either way . The middle of the road prices don't help . Many that want to buy in between 100-150$ will if close enough buy at 150$ or wait till 100$ a 20$ price diffrence isn't giong to sell as many units as you want

Again, this is just not correct. The next-generation systems DO NOT kill the current generation systems in year one. It just doesn't happen

Again read my posts . I said in 2007 they would be killed with 2006 the systems starting to eat into its sales . In 2007 the x360 will be in its second full year , the ps3 and ns5 will be entering their first full year .

There's simply too much history to discard to come to the conclusion that the PS2 platform will drop off of the face of the market in 2006 & 2007.

Look at the chart .

ps2 launches in 99 and the psone ships 18 + million units in 2000 they ship 9 million ... hmm 50% decline

If we follow history in 2006 the ps2 will only ship 6 million units . Then in 2007 we'd be at 4ish million , 2008 3.5 million units and 2009 1.5 million

15 million ish systems in the next 4 years .


This time you factor in that the x360 will be a stronger in the market than the dc was and you'd have two good selling next gen systems instead of the dying dc and ps2 and the decline of the ps2 may be quicker than the psone .

 

[mckmas8808]

In 2007 the x360 will be in its second full year , the ps3 and ns5 will be entering their first full year .

MS has really tricked your mind jvd. Hey can you say the x360 will be in its 2nd full year and the PS3 will be in its 1st full year. The PS3 is coming out 4 to 6 months after the x360, so what's up with the full year difference?

 

[Tap In]

....
Once next-gen shows its face this thought will never be brought up again. It will be at least on par with what the PSone to PS2 gave us.`

I'm a "believer" like you on this one.


I think it is natural to be a little cynical with all of promises, but I can't see how these systems can't/won't deliver some mind blowing visuals.

Of course I haven't been a PC gamer since VooDoo2 so I have not really seen what's going on there lately.

 

[jvd]

In 2007 the x360 will be in its second full year , the ps3 and ns5 will be entering their first full year .

MS has really tricked your mind jvd. Hey can you say the x360 will be in its 2nd full year and the PS3 will be in its 1st full year. The PS3 is coming out 4 to 6 months after the x360, so what's up with the full year difference?

Can you show me where sony put out the press releases that in the 3 major markets it will be launched 4 months after the xbox 360 ?

The xbox 360 is a world wide launch within weeks of each other . So by sayign 2007 is its second full year i'm correct. If ps3 launches in only one market 5 months later how would it also be on its second full year in 2007 ?

 

[Tap In]

In 2007 the x360 will be in its second full year , the ps3 and ns5 will be entering their first full year .

MS has really tricked your mind jvd. Hey can you say the x360 will be in its 2nd full year and the PS3 will be in its 1st full year. The PS3 is coming out 4 to 6 months after the x360, so what's up with the full year difference?

I really think NA and EU will not launch until fall 2006. I think the early launch talk is a red hering by sony to hold people off from buying x360.

I know that's exactly what I would do if I were sony.

If sooner, I'll believe it when i see it.

 

[scooby_dooby]

All Sony has officially said is they will launch in Japan in spring 2006, and that they still "hope" to launch in the other regions around the same time.

IMO, if PS3 has a sub-par line-up of launch games in spring, they will wait until Dec for the North American launch.

 

[sonycowboy]

The PSOne KILLED the dreamcast in head to head sales, in every region, by a LARGE margin. Sure, there were individuals that chose the DC vs the PSOne, but the market by-and-large bought the PSOne. In fact, up until early 2003, the PSOne outsold both the Xbox and the Gamecube.

Great , thats nice. Read my post . I said the problem was that at first we didn't have enough dreamcasts . Reading helps when having discusions

I've ABSOLUTELY NEVER seen the shortage excuse used for the Dreamcast in my life.

The market that would wiat to buy a 130$ device over a 150$ device is very very small . The diffrence between the 150$ adn 100 is bigger . At each stage you get stragglers that will go either way . The middle of the road prices don't help . Many that want to buy in between 100-150$ will if close enough buy at 150$ or wait till 100$ a 20$ price diffrence isn't giong to sell as many units as you want

It is amazing, then, how the PSOne sold just as many units at @ $129 as bought the system @ $149 last generation. When you get down the these price points, $20 makes a big, big difference. And so far this generation,we've only had the equivalent of $149 price point in one out of the three regions. And that region had shortages for 7 months (so did Europe actually).

Look at the chart .

ps2 launches in 99 and the psone ships 18 + million units in 2000 they ship 9 million ... hmm 50% decline

If we follow history in 2006 the ps2 will only ship 6 million units . Then in 2007 we'd be at 4ish million , 2008 3.5 million units and 2009 1.5 million

15 million ish systems in the next 4 years .


This time you factor in that the x360 will be a stronger in the market than the dc was and you'd have two good selling next gen systems instead of the dying dc and ps2 and the decline of the ps2 may be quicker than the psone .

I hope you don't honestly believe that the PS2 will only ship 6M units in 2006. Or 4M in 2007.

You do recognize you're looking at the wrong comparable time frames don't you? The PS2 has not yet reached lower than $149 in ANY region. And this is over 5 years since it launched. The PS2 reached the $129 price point Sept 1998, so as you so gently put it, "look at the chart".

1998 was the PSOne's peak year and I think we'll see the PS2 approach it's peak year this year by selling over 18M units.

Sony has extended this generation, so it only stands to reason, that the life cycles curve will extend as well.

 

[jvd]

I've ABSOLUTELY NEVER seen the shortage excuse used for the Dreamcast in my life.

to bad , if you lived it , you would have known . The first few months of launch we barely had enough units and by the time we started getting enough sony started its campain to kill the system with the ps2

It is amazing, then, how the PSOne sold just as many units at @ $129 as bought the system @ $149 last generation.

back it up with a link to this info

I hope you don't honestly believe that the PS2 will only ship 6M units in 2006. Or 4M in 2007.

Hey your the one telling me to look at past history and what the psone did . Now you don't want me to look at the psone and what it did ? You can't pick and choose buddy

You do recognize you're looking at the wrong comparable time frames don't you? The PS2 has not yet reached lower than $149 in ANY region. And this is over 5 years since it launched. The PS2 reached the $129 price point Sept 1998, so as you so gently put it, "look at the chart".

and ? the ps2 has already dropped off greatly in its shipped units . We can't speculate what a price drop will do . But the question is when will it come ? Sony is predicting 12 millin units this year down by over 4 million units from last year. next year it will only sink more. There is no magic that they can work to increase sales . The ps2 has most likely already hit saturation point and now its slowing down in sales . All in all it will have grown the market. It just wouldn't have done it by some rediculus number

Looking at the charts once they hit thier max shipment rate the rate only goes down ,it never lvls off or gets higher . Which means next year will be less than 12 million. Will it be 6 million ? I dunno , It could be , it could also be 10 million. I dunno. But the ps3 will be out and so will the x360 and that will affect sales of the systems . It wont affect them greatly . But it wont help the system sell more

 

[sonycowboy]

It is amazing, then, how the PSOne sold just as many units at @ $129 as bought the system @ $149 last generation.

back it up with a link to this info

See the image I posted the first time around. (It's from a Piper Jaffray analysts research report). Or look at the SCEI website that I linked too earlier to look at shipments and compare that to the price drop points.

I hope you don't honestly believe that the PS2 will only ship 6M units in 2006. Or 4M in 2007.

Hey your the one telling me to look at past history and what the psone did . Now you don't want me to look at the psone and what it did ? You can't pick and choose buddy

You do recognize you're looking at the wrong comparable time frames don't you? The PS2 has not yet reached lower than $149 in ANY region. And this is over 5 years since it launched. The PS2 reached the $129 price point Sept 1998, so as you so gently put it, "look at the chart".

and ? the ps2 has already dropped off greatly in its shipped units . We can't speculate what a price drop will do . But the question is when will it come ? Sony is predicting 12 millin units this year down by over 4 million units from last year. next year it will only sink more. There is no magic that they can work to increase sales . The ps2 has most likely already hit saturation point and now its slowing down in sales . All in all it will have grown the market. It just wouldn't have done it by some rediculus number

Looking at the charts once they hit thier max shipment rate the rate only goes down ,it never lvls off or gets higher . Which means next year will be less than 12 million. Will it be 6 million ? I dunno , It could be , it could also be 10 million. I dunno. But the ps3 will be out and so will the x360 and that will affect sales of the systems . It wont affect them greatly . But it wont help the system sell more

The PS2 has it's lowest shipment's because of a 7 month shortage. Do you think that might have had ~some affect?? You've worked retail, you should know this.

Also, the PS2 looks to NOT be competing against the Xbox next year if reports of that hardware not being available next year are true and the GC is looking extremely weak in ALL 3 regions, so it's main competition looks to be a much more expensive XBox 360, the PSP & the DS. Really not head-to-head competition, IMO.

~If, Sony only manages to ship 12M units this year, then I'll certainly revise my estimates down (assuming some price drop, even if it's only to $129). However, last year, they forecast 14M units and shipped 16M units even with a shortage. I feel comfortable that they'll EASILY pass 16M units again this year.

Finally, here's some comparisons for you:

Holiday 2005: $299 Xbox360 in limited quantites vs $129/$99 PS2
Holiday 2006: $299/$249 Xbox360 & $299 PS3 in limited quantities vs $99 PS2
Holiday 2007: $199 Xbox360/ PS3 vs $79 PS2
Holiday 2008: $179/$149 Xbox 360/PS3 vs $49/$59 PS2.

I'd say the PS2 with it's excellent pipeline of games for the next 12 months, + its libary, + it's continued support will enjoy some pretty good success.

As I said before, we won't decide how well the PS2 will actually sell in this thread. We'll have to see how it plays out with consumers. My interest in posting was just to show a particular reasoning that shows that the PS2's sales can be very healthy for some time to come. You disagree. That's cool. I get your argument.

 

[mckmas8808]

However, last year, they forecast 14M units and shipped 16M units even with a shortage.

Hey sonycowboy I think this is your best point right here. A prediction is just that, a prediction. I think Sony can sell more than 12 million units. If they don't it would be because they didn't lower the price of the PS2. With the Xbox being killed off Sony may not want to lower the price. They may see this as easy sells. :? Hope not.