Well that puts things in perspective.
NPD August 2007
- Thread starter RobertR1
- Start date
Well that puts things in perspective.
tongue_of_colicab
Veteran
Sony want the ps3 to last a decade so they'll still be market leader for 5 years vs x360 hehe.
Strange. Because I'm seeing something different.
I also see stacks of 499€ PS3's at my MM for weeks now. And lots of Wii's for that matter.
A little over 4 years actually.
And I generated the 100K number this way: Assuming a new PS4 in late 2011 (i.e. by then market share will be settled and irrelevant for the most part), that leaves leaves at most 50 months (slightly over 4 years) of PS3 sales to overcome Xbox 360 sales.
In NA the numbers are roughly 7.03M 360s, 2.01 PS3s; so that is essentially a 5M disparity. Divide the 5M by our months, an tadah, 100K sales per month are required (as of now) for Sony to break even in NA with MS.
5M units is a big difference. And two factors compound this issue.
#1. Sony doesn't need to merely make up a 100K/mo difference over the next 4 years. Based on 2007 NPD monthly averages* MS is outselling Sony by an average of 80K units per month thus far in CY2007. Sony needs to have a momentum shift in NA of not 100K units/mo, but 180K/mo to catch MS in 4 years. But that is misleading because...
#2. The deficit is growing. The August NPD (with an assist from Madden, Bioshock, and a meager price drop) saw the Xbox 360 increase its monthly lead over PS3 sales which had a slight drop after their July sales bump (from the price "drop"/SKU adjustment). The difference between PS3 and Xbox 360 sales will be greater than 80K units for the remainder of the year.
2007 is pretty much in the books and is just playing out (outside some price drops from Sony and potentially MS). MS and Sony have put their major software cards on the table. Madden, Warhawk, Lair, Blue Dragon, and Bioshock are behind us. For notable exclusives we have Heavenly Sword, Uncharted, Ratchet & Clank, UT3, Haze, Halo 3, PGR4, and Mass Effect are ahead of us. And then there is the hoard of 3rd party cross platform titles like Rock Band, CoD4, Assassin's Creed, Half-Life Orange Box, and so forth.
It wouldn't be surprising that in NA MS, at the end of CY2007, held a 6M unit lead over Sony (compared with the current 5M one). And I think that is being slightly conservative.
Accounting for a 6M unit disparity in NA, and an average difference of 80k/mo, in 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 Sony will most likely need to close a 200K unit/mo gap.
However you want to close that gap -- increased PS3 sales, decreased Xbox 360 sales, a combination -- 200k units is a lot. And they are looking at, realistically, after 2007 needing to outsell MS by an average of 125K units/mo after the impact of this holiday period plays out.
One can argue the PS3 will sell better once (a) they drop in price and (b) they get their big guns out. But MS is doing both a & b as well. Sony isn't competing against a flat footed competitor (100K units/mo), but against a moving competitor. Based on that competitor's movement and how I see CY2007 playing out Sony is looking at closing a 200K unit/mo gap (i.e. their current sales hole + monthly sales disparity).
And that is just to break even in 2011 with MS in NA.
With all due respect to people who invested $600 in the PS3 based on potential, this is not going to happen.
And no one has offered a reasonable reason to expect this to happen. Sentiments about brand fidelity, potential, and favorite titles, where in the numbers do we find any evidence that Sony can catch, and then pass, MS by such substantial numbers in the next 6 months?
Looking at Sony's price drops, media events with big announcements regarding new games, and the release of their long promoted titles and their impact on the sales data I see absolutely no reason to believe that future moves against a moving competitor will generate a 200K swing.
I don't see it in the numbers.
* MS has outsold Sony by a total of 644K units in CY 2007 according to NPD data (1,694K versus 1,050K). This averages to 80K a month. Monthly totals: January: x 294, 243; February: x 228, 127; March: x 199, 82; April: x 174, 130; May: x 155, 81; June: x 198, 98; July: x 170, 159; August: x 276, 130.
I agree with yout post.
But I don't understand why PS3 should be scared (or almost agressive...).For me Sony is likely to be third In US, but it have quiet a lot of room to grow in Japan, and so far it's tigh in Europe, but I guess sony will come on top of MS(not by that much but anyway).
Even if ps3 ends third world wide, the user baser will be wide enough to keep easily the ps3 afloat (as people tend to think I or some others expect the ps3 to die...).
The ps3 won't lose editors support, and the main strengh of Sony, (ie owning the most talented studios) will remains untouched no matter what Sony market share is.
PS3 fans in the same time tend to think quiet a strange thing ie :
Even if the ps3 is in the third place it will be a very satisfying platform (witch is true) AND if the ps3 offers a really satisfying it can't be third (/second) (witch is just weird logic).
Last edited by a moderator:
Price drop next week?
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=28671
399€ would be a huge drop, but MS has a good deal too with X360 Premium Halo 3 bundles at 379€.
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=28671
399€ would be a huge drop, but MS has a good deal too with X360 Premium Halo 3 bundles at 379€.
I still don't bite in that price cut, (and patcher is less reliable than some senoir members here lol), but MS can't let this happen price advantage is their main strengh.
MS can live during september/october @379$ due to Halo-III launch, but this is not true for november and december.
Ms will have to cut 50$ more
Simple. Dont wait then. I think the point that I and other have made is that many will wait. As far as them being Xbox-type genres, I would suggest the likes of LBP, Singstar and Eye of Judgement will plug the creative gap.
I'm not so sure. They have a great line-up and bundles will be enough IMHO.
That would be ballsy. A price cut versus Halo 3? $400 is still a lot, and a large cap from $249 (Wii) and $279 (Core). I agree, liolio, that MS would need to price cut fairly quickly (as rumored).
I am not too sure I would want to price cut and a) still be more expensive and b) be up against Halo 3. For the holiday it is a great move for Sony, but one that should have been done a long time ago (I still think $349 is a more appropriate PS3 price). After their last price "cut" I am not confident that such a move will be strong enough in the face of a strong software product.
It will at least make things interesting. If it happens, my guess is the PS3 will still be outsold in NA in September due to the Halo effect. But I could be wrong. My wallet cheers either way because it will cause both to cut prices
I am not too sure I would want to price cut and a) still be more expensive and b) be up against Halo 3. For the holiday it is a great move for Sony, but one that should have been done a long time ago (I still think $349 is a more appropriate PS3 price). After their last price "cut" I am not confident that such a move will be strong enough in the face of a strong software product.
It will at least make things interesting. If it happens, my guess is the PS3 will still be outsold in NA in September due to the Halo effect. But I could be wrong. My wallet cheers either way because it will cause both to cut prices
Most of the early adopters are waiting for AAA games that will not appear for other platforms, not worrying about Sony's hardware numbers. As stated elsewhere, 3rd-party developers are not going to suddenly drop PS3 (thats sensationalism, and perhaps what some hope will happen. As far as I can tell, those AAA titles are still on schedule, and from what I've seen, first-party PS3 games built from the ground (Motorstorm and Heavenly Sword) up look are arguably better in terms of physics and graphics. So the machine is gradually realising its potential.
LBP and Eye of Judgement seem like niche games to me. I think LBP looks fantastic, but I can't see it being a game that everyone wants to play. Eye of Judgement on the other hand, is some kind of card game for Eyetoy, and that's the very definition of niche.
Singstar has a far wider appeal than those other two.
If it is realizing its potential it hasn't materialized in sales.
Further, you sound very contradictory. You state the system is realizing its potential, yet say gamers are waiting for AAA titles.
And yes, publisher resources are shifting. Did you miss the EA CEO rant about them betting on the wrong horse (PS3) and how they are taking Wii more seriously? Just look at the NA numbers. MS has a 5M unit lead and is outselling Sony monthly.
If you creating a multiplatform title and were selecting a lead platform for a NA title you would certainly, in most circumstances, select the 360 and not the PS3 as your lead platform. It isn't a matter of publishers dropping the PS3. It is an issue of multiplatform development being a necessity this gen due to fiscal issues, the migration of former exclusives to multiplatform status, and lead SKU. Sony isn't being dropped. But the market has shifted in a number of ways.
It isn't all or nothing as you position. And as liolio pointed out, the NA issues aren't quite as striking in Japan or Europe. I was strictly talking about NA. You don't address the numbers and talk more about sentiment and your feel for "early adopters" in 2008. BTW, I do find it extremely odd to call consumers in 2008 early adopters for a console released in 2006.
So, maybe you can answer my question from my post: With the sales deficit in view, how is Sony going to overcome the 5M unit disparity inNA in the next 4 years.
I don't care if consumers aren't paying attention to numbers. That is irrelevant. The question is how is Sony (not consumers or PS3 fans) going to address this issue. I say it isn't going to happen.
Why am I wrong?
But is it really? Even at this early stage, the Wii made up that much very quickly. And is that purely because of the price difference? And if price is everything, why is the Core not selling? I don't buy it. Everything in your calculations depends on a simple matter of price and being the first to a market. Isn't that a bit simplistic?
The best years for the Playstation series have been typically year three, in which about 20 million consoles were sold. That means to make up a 5 million difference, the PS3 needs to perform 33% better than a 360 doing 15 million in that same year. Of course, this is world-wide, but world-wide matters in this equation and it's just an example. Again, I think you're focussing too much on the limited data we have after less than 2 years of 360 and less than 1 year of PS3. In your analysis, you grossly overstate the importance of these first years.
You're making a mess of things now. Madden isn't even an exclusive.
Exactly. A lot of big stuff coming, and we don't know half the impact that will have. I can't believe you just said 2007 has pretty much played out.
Are you honestly suggesting that the 360 will sell 250.000 MORE than the PS3 over the next FOUR months, and that this is a CONSERVATIVE estimate???
And that's the source of the problem. You're looking at the numbers we have, but greatly overstate the significance of the raw numbers on current sales of the three platforms we have right now.
250\4=62.5k
Selling 250k more than the PS3 over a timeframe of 4 months is a very conservative estimate, its nothing the x360 hasn't been doing every month with the exception of july, for 1 year now.
No one is expecting PS3 to die. Actually, Japanese industry seems to bet on PS3 quite intensively (maybe they know something we don't
) - new Persona, Star Ocean 4, Yakuza 3 are recent announcements of high-profile games that are exclusive for PS3 - I think it's not reflecting current sales trends, so they are betting that trends will reverse (maybe HD gaming will be more common among Japanese and PS3 will take the crown? We'll see). It's worth noting though that Namco and Capcom have gone multiplatform route for HD consoles. Really? I would say that 3rd parties have the most talented studios and even then I think Microsoft's and Nintendo have at least as good developers as Sony.
That would certainly change the situation drastically. I wonder though if they lose money on $499 units whether they are determined enough bite the bullet and lose even more money. We'll see next week.
It's not that crazy as it may sound. Consoles usually sell in December 5-6 times more then they do in August, the gap in that last month alon can be quite big.
Last edited by a moderator:
In JApan the 360 is inexistant, no matter when quiet a lot people will be attracted to graphic power house that the ps3 isNo one is expecting PS3 to die. Actually, Japanese industry seems to bet on PS3 quite intensively (maybe they know something we don't
Especially has HD tv penetration grows and big titles are coming.
Sony will do well this fall in Japan, and I'm sure that 2008 will their year in Japan.
Not that I think that Wii interest will completely fade, but as time goes Sony will get closer and closer to its own standards in Japan, IMHO.
1 million/4 = 250k.
It's not that crazy as it may sound. Consoles usually sell in December 5-6 times more then they do in August, the gap in that last month alon can be quite big.
I wouldn't say it is impossible, but I wouldn't call it conservative either.
