NPD August 2007

[Vic]

KZ2 is expected in q1??? I thought that was a q4 title ...


Price drop for MS will be reactionary from this point forth IMO. IF sony drops, MS will follow. I expect Sony will hit $300 and MS will respond.

March 2008.

As regards price, 360 will be cheaper for the foreseeable future, but it wont matter itoo much f Sony's software is compelling, and Blu-ray takes off. Also. you only have to look at the prices for the wi-fi dongle and larger HDD's to see the potential value of PS3 over the Premuim 360. However, some people wont care about that, but I'm guessing some will.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Their PS2 predecessors went platinum, so I think thats make the claim justifiable.

As regards Lair and HS, neither have been released, so to write off their impact is premature.

Going platinum on base of 50+ million is different than going platinum on a base of 5 or 6 million which is what it seems these 'heavy hitters' are going to be asked to do.

Lair is out. It sold less than 50k in the NPD(albeit in limited days).

 

[Vic]

To the point that you are responding, that list seems to change as each subsequent release that I am told to wait for by forum-goers comes and goes and does not move hardware.
I can personally give those titles a a break as new IP (I consider Warhawk new IP or brand redesign AND all types of fun!).

To answer a question I was asked earlier, I would expect MP3 to match a new IP such as Bioshock and you can't use reviews as a scapegoat because critically acclaimed in no way equals $$$, and looking at metacritic we are talking 90+ for both titles.

But what titles are you talking about?

Resistance sold 2m, Motorstorm has gone Platinum. I'd like to know what flops we are talking about...

 

[Zaphod]

As regards Lair and HS, neither have been released, so to write off their impact is premature.

Eh? August 30 and September 12, respectively (in NA which is the only relevant territory an a NPD thread).

Lair is officially approaching flop territory, while Heavenly Sword hasn't had enough time to make an impact on this month's list. Reviews and initial impressions doesn't look smash-hit favorable, though.

 

[TheChefO]

March 2008.

As regards price, 360 will be cheaper for the foreseeable future, but it wont matter itoo much f Sony's software is compelling, and Blu-ray takes off. Also. you only have to look at the prices for the wi-fi dongle and larger HDD's to see the potential value of PS3 over the Premuim 360. However, some people wont care about that, but I'm guessing some will.

I'll be shocked if they release kz2 in March. I'd rather they polish and polish some more and drop it q3 for the holiday rush to coincide with their newly announced $300 pricedrop.

/crystal ball

Indeed you have a point on compelling software and with the right mix, they will move systems. I just think their competition is too strong to overcome at this point. If they would have had a kz2 or mgs4 this year for xmas sales and a $400 pricedrop, they could have been in the race. the same scenario with a $300 pricepoint? Now we're talkin. Same scenario with $300 and GT and GTA4??? Now they're winning!

Problem is, none of those things are happening.

They will make a good showing in 2008 though.

 

[liolio]

And how is that? You could argue that PS3's limited waggle options are going to hurt PS3 more and more. You could argue that no DVD playback in Wii is going to hurt it more and more. You could argue that the fact that you succesfully connect with a server in Warhawk 1 time every 10 times you try to is going to hurt PS3 more and more. And so on and so on. Why do you artificially create issues with 360?


Or a console can do very badly initially, like selling under 100k on the biggest market 3 months in a row and then stop selling? You are out your mind if you really believe that people at Nintendo and Microsoft would let their momentum disappear just like that - the momentum they have been working really hard to gain.


You can't even watch a divx video on your PS3 (not to mention HDDVD). Stop making up PS3 advantages.

The Wii has a lot of things going for it, not in the least compatibility with Gamecube, Wii Channel, Browser, not crippled Motion Control, Rumble, flesh memory by default,Virtual Console which has incredible amount of classic games, and some awesome games coming up spanning a vast range of different genres and many with very established names, including the biggest franchises on the planet such as Pokemon, Super Mario, Smash Bros.

The 360 has a lot of things going for it, not in the least compatibility with Xbox, DVD, wmv and h264 support, Rumble, Video Marketplace, Live Arcade with a new release every week, and some awesome games coming up spanning a vast range of different genres and many with very established names and IPTV coming soon.


Price will definitely be revelant then, even moreso then ever. Microsoft had to immediately counteract every PS2 pricedrop at the time and they were both way beneath $300 pricepoint. $199->$169 price cut immensely helped PSP sales, $149->$129 caused massive spike in NintendoDS and PS2 sales.

Really good post.

Ms and BigN have the most important thing on their side to keep their momemtum, price.
Where Sony will fare well (and save its head) with really good AAA title in 2008. But no matter how good this games are price will hurt, I'm not sure Sony will do well this christmass, and it's tough to sell lot of systems during other part of the year, Hope Sony won't to pull to many bullets at non critical time of the year.

I don't bite that much in the 339/499 ps3 anyway I can't see the ps3 cheaper than 399$ for most part of 2008.

 

[Vic]

Going platinum on base of 50+ million is different than going platinum on a base of 5 or 6 million which is what it seems these 'heavy hitters' are going to be asked to do.

Lair is out. It sold less than 50k in the NPD(albeit in limited days).

Of course, but the PS2 had far more AAA titles than GC and Xbox1, therefore these games had more competition...we can play this game all day...(how much "competition" did Gears' have on release afterall?).

Th NPD make up around 60% of retail outlets. And of course its not even out in Europe...

 

[Vic]

I'll be shocked if they release kz2 in March. I'd rather they polish and polish some more and drop it q3 for the holiday rush to coincide with their newly announced $300 pricedrop.

/crystal ball

Indeed you have a point on compelling software and with the right mix, they will move systems. I just think their competition is too strong to overcome at this point. If they would have had a kz2 or mgs4 this year for xmas sales and a $400 pricedrop, they could have been in the race. the same scenario with a $300 pricepoint? Now we're talkin. Same scenario with $300 and GT and GTA4??? Now they're winning!

Problem is, none of those things are happening.

They will make a good showing in 2008 though.

Well its been in development for 2-and-a-half years, so I'm not going to try to double-guess GG.

 

[dobwal]

By far the majority of the PS2 userbase are casual gamers. While the PS3 would be the first console considered for purchased, I doubt a large percentage of this segment are entrenched as hardcore "Playstation" supporters.

The natural notion is to go "the PS2 is the best so the PS3 will be the best". However the current climate is erroding that outlook and as time passes more and more will move to the Wii and 360 until Sony is able to provide the PS3 at a more reasonable price.

 

[Cheezdoodles]

These consoles are on different timelines. And I'll be so bold as to say that the closer the consoles get to each other in price, the better things will look for the PS3. Under the current circumstances, time is on the PS3's side. The 360 needs to distance itself a lot further from the PS3 right now, because once both consoles get under 299, price will no longer be relevant among them.

I think your overlooking a couple very important factors here.

Yes, PS brand is strong etc etc, but your statement all depends on when these consoles start getting similiar prices.

Lets say, that in by the end of 2008 the PS3 will be $399 and the X360 will be $299. Or a hundred less for each. Whatever. Point is, that if the X360 starts picking up pace, and lets say it sells 15million next year, or 10. Doesn't really matter, if it starts selling enough to be the "new" household name, that PS brand is not going to count for all that much.

 

[liolio]

I think your overlooking a couple very important factors here.

Yes, PS brand is strong etc etc, but your statement all depends on when these consoles start getting similiar prices.

Lets say, that in by the end of 2008 the PS3 will be $399 and the X360 will be $299. Or a hundred less for each. Whatever. Point is, that if the X360 starts picking up pace, and lets say it sells 15million next year, or 10. Doesn't really matter, if it starts selling enough to be the "new" household name, that PS brand is not going to count for all that much.

There is an other part in that equation for casual market,
the new arcade SKU.
We still have no references for this sku, but if it find its public it can be interesting.
For childs young teenager 229$ is not out of reach with help parents gan parents etc.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Th NPD make up around 60% of retail outlets. And of course its not even out in Europe...

huh? Are you trying to tell me that Lair sold 200k copies in the outlets that are only extrapolated and thus the NPD numbers are wrong?

Lair was panned by the critics and didn't seem to move much in opening days, to expect that its going to be a big system mover at this point would be extremely optimistic to put it kindly.

 

[Cheezdoodles]

...(how much "competition" did Gears' have on release afterall?).

Um... CoD3 and R6:V?

Th NPD make up around 60% of retail outlets.

So what?

 

[TrungGap]

You mentioned games that has a very xbox feel to it, and that's why in a 2 year period xbox360 only gotten as far as 8 mil. It's like a cliche, xbox fans will stick with xbox and ps to ps, and that's a lot of people. It's not hope or faith, it's the way it is.

How do you explain about the Wii? I think it pretty clear, cheap console is the only way to win.

Regardless, both the 360 and PS3 need a price adjustment (and soon). MS is pushing as hard as it could on hardcore gamers to buy games...this is why we're seeing an amazing attach rate on the 360. However, without casual gamers they will lose out to Nintendo. Once N reached critical mass, it doesn't matte what you price your device the pure huge software library will steamroll over everyone. This is what I think we're seeing with the DS...it doesn't matter how much better the PSP is. It doesn't matter that PSP is only a few buck more.

PS3 failed to to capture hardcore gamers like MS did. The reason is not so much about price, but consistent message. PS3 is not viewed as a hardcore game console, because there isn't any really good games PS3 (I'm on the fence about HS...at first I was amazed with it, but I'm not so sure now; never like Liar...ops Lair).

Ms has been playing this entire gen safe.

They've analyzed the market and seen what works and what doesn't. They've seen where they need to grow and diversify and have attempted to do so.

I don't think MS are playing it safe. They never expected N to steal the show. They had it all planned from the get go. There's only execution left. Remember that interview in which Moore said that they weren't going to change their game plan? Eh, yeah that US$1 billion RRoD problem threw a wrench in their plan, I'm sure...Anyway, my point MS never planned to wage a price war with Sony to do a mad rush to capture the market.

They were banking on providing an astounding infrastructure, feature set, and support to get developers; beating Sony on that level as oppose to price alone. This is why we see Lost Planet, Dead Rising, BioShock, etc doing so well. When developers are giving tools to focus on what's important (gameplay) as oppose trying to get the beast working, you're going to get a much more polished product at the end.

Eh, where am I going with all this? I have no idea...other than N, caught both MS and Sony off guard; and both need to fix it by lowering it price to compete for causal gamers.

 

[Vic]

huh? Are you trying to tell me that Lair sold 200k copies in the outlets that are only extrapolated and thus the NPD numbers are wrong?

Lair was panned by the critics and didn't seem to move much in opening days, to expect that its going to be a big system mover at this point would be extremely optimistic to put it kindly.

Uhh...I'm merely stating a fact. It'll sell more than whats quoted in the NPD numbers. Also, we're talking number here. FIFA games regularly sell well, despite crap reviews. In addition, did I not state that the real big-hitters had not been released? Hands up all those that thought Sony HQ expects Lair to sell as much as GT5, KZ2, FF XIII or MGS4.

 

[Vic]

Um... CoD3 and R6:V?



So what?

Oh come, those games are nearly the same every year. They had nothing like the hype that Gears did, plus Gears was an exclusive. Gears went on to w
sell very well, (4m+) but as I mentioned previously, Resistance has done 2m+. Both were packaged in bundles.

Err..well clearly, Lair has will sell more thats what was quoted earlier in the thread, based on the NPD numbers...

 

[TrungGap]

Hands up all those that thought Sony HQ expects Lair to sell as much as GT5, KZ2, FF XIII or MGS4.

It's not that people at Sony thought Lair or HS will beat MGS/GT/FF, it's that when you develop anything you do your best to make sure it's a system seller.

Who thought Lost Planet, Dead Rising, BioShock or Geometry War going to be such a big hit? No body, but it doesn't mean you don't try your best to make it (especially when you have nothing).

 

[Tap In]

.... It's like a cliche, xbox fans will stick with xbox and ps to ps, and that's a lot of people. It's not hope or faith, it's the way it is.....

maybe in fanboy-land but not in the real world of the 100+ million potential console owners this gen who will mostly buy on library and price, library and price.

Add to that a TON of sales from people seeing a stack of cheap, platinum hits (twenty or so million sellers) sitting on the shelves next to a $199 Xbox 360 in a year or so and things are not so cut and dried.

 

[TrungGap]

Oh come, those games are nearly the same every year. They had nothing like the hype that Gears did, plus Gears was an exclusive. Gears went on to w
sell very well, (4m+) but as I mentioned previously, Resistance has done 2m+. Both were packaged in bundles.

Err..well clearly, Lair has will sell more thats what was quoted earlier in the thread, based on the NPD numbers...

Lair is not exclusive? Liar was not hyped up? Com'on it was, but development started to show signs of trouble and soon the hype dissolved. If Gears' develop started to leaked ugly images or problem, don't you think Gears will tank also. Good thing that Gears turned out good, thus fueling the hype even more.

 

[Tap In]

How do you explain about the Wii? I think it pretty clear, cheap console is the only way to win.

Regardless, both the 360 and PS3 need a price adjustment (and soon). MS is pushing as hard as it could on hardcore gamers to buy games...this is why we're seeing an amazing attach rate on the 360. However, without casual gamers they will lose out to Nintendo. Once N reached critical mass, it doesn't matte what you price your device the pure huge software library will steamroll over everyone. This is what I think we're seeing with the DS...it doesn't matter how much better the PSP is. It doesn't matter that PSP is only a few buck more.

PS3 failed to to capture hardcore gamers like MS did. The reason is not so much about price, but consistent message. PS3 is not viewed as a hardcore game console, because there isn't any really good games PS3 (I'm on the fence about HS...at first I was amazed with it, but I'm not so sure now; never like Liar...ops Lair).



I don't think MS are playing it safe. They never expected N to steal the show. They had it all planned from the get go. There's only execution left. Remember that interview in which Moore said that they weren't going to change their game plan? Eh, yeah that US$1 billion RRoD problem threw a wrench in their plan, I'm sure...Anyway, my point MS never planned to wage a price war with Sony to do a mad rush to capture the market.

They were banking on providing an astounding infrastructure, feature set, and support to get developers; beating Sony on that level as oppose to price alone. This is why we see Lost Planet, Dead Rising, BioShock, etc doing so well. When developers are giving tools to focus on what's important (gameplay) as oppose trying to get the beast working, you're going to get a much more polished product at the end.

Eh, where am I going with all this? I have no idea...other than N, caught both MS and Sony off guard; and both need to fix it by lowering it price to compete for causal gamers.

great post