On top of that, even with a PS3 price drop, I expect 360's momentum to grow faster than PS3's.
Games, games, games...
NPD August 2007
- Thread starter RobertR1
- Start date
On top of that, even with a PS3 price drop, I expect 360's momentum to grow faster than PS3's.
Games, games, games...
Arwin what are your guesstimations for fall 2007 In US.
My bet is starting at wii 4 millions unit / 360 6.3 millions unit / ps3 1.7 (last NPD numbers to make sure everybody speak about the same thing
)
Wii will end up @+7 millions (depends a lot on how much units nintendo can produce)
360 will end up around the 9 millions mark (~400.000 average during september and october, and will be between 800.000/1.000.000 during november december).
PS3 wil end around the 3.5 millions (200/300 average during september/october, 500.000 average for november and december / tough to guess because we still don't know if the price cut will really happens and when/ i've take in account a price cut during september).
My bet is starting at wii 4 millions unit / 360 6.3 millions unit / ps3 1.7 (last NPD numbers to make sure everybody speak about the same thing
)Wii will end up @+7 millions (depends a lot on how much units nintendo can produce)
360 will end up around the 9 millions mark (~400.000 average during september and october, and will be between 800.000/1.000.000 during november december).
PS3 wil end around the 3.5 millions (200/300 average during september/october, 500.000 average for november and december / tough to guess because we still don't know if the price cut will really happens and when/ i've take in account a price cut during september).
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Regarding Lair sales, it's a pointless argument - with a budget of about 24 million, it'd need to move at least 7-800K units just to break even, but probably closer to 1 million. What does it matter if it sells 200 or 250K?...
As for Wii catching up to X360 quickly, first it's still behind the Xbox in the US by 2.2 million units, so it may not actually catch up to it this year; and second, it's been selling ~200K more per month since its release.
As for Wii catching up to X360 quickly, first it's still behind the Xbox in the US by 2.2 million units, so it may not actually catch up to it this year; and second, it's been selling ~200K more per month since its release.
While theoritacally sky is a limit for Wii sales this Holiday season, I think 360 will sell better than Wii in the next 4 months combined. Nintendo will have huge supply issues and consumers who will not be able to find a Wii might find 360 Core* or Premium an interesting alternative, on top of people who will want to buy Xbox 360 for its games.
*I assume Core will be sold with a memory card and 5 Live Arcade games for $279 or $249.
I agree Nintendo sell so well in all of the three big territories that It would not be a surprise.
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Pretty much all games are niche games! I've said it before and no doubt I'll say it again. Only the top few titles sell to lots of millions. In the list of PS2's best selling titles (NOTE : This website appears to be virusified. Make sure your antivirus is running!), if your game is out of the top ten you're selling less then 5 million. Out of 190 listed games, some 170 are selling under 3 million. You can't rely on one game to sell you tens of millions of consoles! You need a mix of pullers. You need one game to attract 3 million buyers, and a different game to attract a different 3 million, and another franchise to get you 2 million, and altogether they add up
If all PS2 had was Madden, GTA and GT, they'd have software to appeal to...what? 30 million gamers? Assuming those 30 million are willing to buy a console for one or two games only. Sony wouldn't have sold any consoles on the weight of Guitar Hero (2 million), EyeToy Play (3.9 million), God of War (3 million) etc. (though of course, these games in themselves aren't enough to sell an entire console. Each 'must have' title that sells n million copies only attracts a smaller percentage of new console buyers on average. A game that sells 6 million doesn't get you 6 million new console owners!)
I think people who hang around gaming forums get so much coverage of the hyped titles that they forget the market's far bigger than that, and the impact of titles are often far smaller than they expect.
It's the same idea, but I question their execution. As the report mentioned, they try to weight in emotional impact. Thus a "OMGWTFBBQ this is the bestest console EVAR!!1!1!!1oneone" post scores a platform more points than a "I'm very impressed with this console. It does everything I want and represents excellent value for money" post, as I understand it. Posting habits are likely to change with demographic. A young teenager is more likely to post overexcited enthusiasm than a thirty-something professional, which would net the teenager's platform more points than the older poster, yet the brand value may be on a par. I'd like to see BrandIntel's research before accepting their final metrics.
Well there we go! BrandIntel says your playground is wrong. Is it really that trustworthy
. There's lots of regions and cliques and factors to consider. Suffice to say I don't see any brand is in a bad way at the moment. All three consoles are viable options, stigma-free and credible with the owner's peers, I think.Nope, I'm saying a couple of very good games have already been released, but the real system sellers will be out next year.
But will we see Madden or FIFA going exclusive? No chance.
Erm...I was talking about people who already have PS3's. It has nothing to do with sentiment, just a realisation that a console shouldnt written off 10-months into its lifespan. Furthermore, while MS is ahead, the high-adoption rate of next-gen consoles still hasnt got going. Software more than price will be the key factor in this battle, and I expect this period to be 2009-2010, so Sony still has time on its hands as far as NA. Plus it can rely more heavily on the Japanese and European markets more than MS can.
I still think software, and not price or current hardware sales figures will be the determining factor. As Arwin mentions, the Wii shows the market can change very quickly. I'm just interested to see what happens when the established system-sellers are released in 2008.
The main reason I've talked about this is that Wii catching up quickly to the 360 has been used as an example for the PS3. Well it hasn't done so in the US yet, despite selling a LOT of units - so things do look grim for Sony.
Nintendo has just announced that they're preparing for the holiday season with huge supplies...
The PS3 isn't the Wii. The PS3 isn't the PS2.
And 5M is a large number. 4 years at an additional 100K units above 360 NA sales just to match in North America (NA) at the end of 2011.
How big is 100K units to Sony? Nearly double their average monthly sales in NA over the last 8 months. Can they double their monthly sales? Yes.
Can they pass MS, in NA, by 100K a month starting September and keep that up for 4 years? I see no objective evidence why it should.
Help me Arwin. Give me 5 reasons Sony, in NA, will sell 100K more units than MS, per month, over the next 4 years.
When does this titanic market shift in NA begin? How is it sustained?
You can dish out the criticism. So lets see the meat of your position: How and When do these things change.
I never said it was purely a price difference. Quite the contrary. The fact the PS3 will always be at a price disadvange, though, is a significant demerit.
Don't twist my posts. I find this sort of exchange disingenuous. My thought process has been substantially deeper than "first to market + price advantage". Go back and reread my posts, and then quote, my posts before you start fighting such strawmen.
Typically the best years of any full generation console are in years 3 & 4. This point applies to the competition as well.
North America (NA) Arwin. NA! And...
Again, the PS3 isn't the PS2.
• The PS2 was priced right compared to the market; The PS3 price structure is inferior to the competition and will be so the entire generation.
• The PS2 led the market by a significant margin in software selection (diversity and depth); The PS3 isn't leading the market in software selection.
• The PS2 had many exclusives and some of the most notable exclusives/killer apps; The PS3 lost substantial ground in exclusives and has yet to deliver a killer app.
• The PS2 arrived to the market early, established an early market lead, built a strong back library of budget software, had the first killer apps to market, and thus won significant development resources as the defacto market leader; The PS3 arrived to the market late, has failed to neutralize the market lead the competitor(s) established, fails to keep sales pace (in NA) in monthly sales, has a relatively thin library of software, had yet to produce a killer and has had a number of strategic titles under deliver, and most importantly has seen developer resources shift both strongly toward multiplatform development and even away from the PS3.
• The PS2 faced weak competition in the GCN and Xbox; The PS3 faces much stronger and diversified competition in the Wii and Xbox 360.
The major things the PS2 did right, the PS3 has done wrong in regards to capturing market share. And yet you expect the PS3 to approach PS2 sales. AND you are ignoring all the sales data that contradicts the PS2/PS3 correlation. I think it is quite unreasonable (I won't stoop to such language as insults like immature... how crude people, not even worth my time sheeesh) to expect the PS3 to sell 100M+ consoles based on any of the facts presently available. Breaking 100M units isn't easy, and it is important to recognize all the factors that led to the PS2 accomplishing this task.
A lot of market forces converged for the PS2 (and PS1), and likewise Nintendo before it. If it was that simple, the PS3 would have rip roaring sales.
Most of us expected that. I thought they would sell out their first 6M at $600 easily. I was wrong. Most of us were wrong. So now I am focusing more on the numbers we do have.
I have squarely been talking NA. So don't change twist my words AND change the topic.
And as pointed out your numbers are irrelevant because the PS3 isn't the PS2 and most consoles that have full lifecycles follow similar relative trends. So your numbers are totally irrelevant. Your specific example doesn't apply at all to my discussion of NA numbers and the *difficulty* in a 100K+ average unit swing.
So what is your analysis?
Ignore all the numbers seems to be your arguement. Correct me if I am wrong. And tell me (just list them in bullet point order) why all the current sales data is irrelevant and how Sony, in NA, is going to make up those 5M units. How MS is going to fade and PS3 sales are going to increase month-after-month instead of the general decline they have seen in NA.
I am all ears Arwin.
Until then I will stick by my use of numbers because your criticisms, to this point, have been to attack the validity of objective points in favor of your own subjective opinion.
Why don't you fully quote me Arwin? You totally took me out of context
Joshua said:
I never said Madden was an exclusive--I said it was a major software card (the latter titles mentioned I used the term exclusives in addition to the "major software card" heading). It is called nuance. Instead of understanding what I am saying it is easier just to say I am making a mess of everything to dismiss what I say. Sheeesh.
And yes, Madden was a major software title, just like GTA is. If GTA IV had a major feature that benefits PS3 gameplay and Sony got to exclusively market GTA IV (even without an exclusive release date) it would be a big deal. Major software card. Few games, even fewer multiplatform, qualify for such. But it happens. And the 60fps marketing has been a major annoucement for on of the TOP 3 titles in NA. Who cares if Ace Combat 6 is exclusive -- when your potentially #1 selling game in NA has a big advantage on one console, that is important to note.
Madden 360 sales topped PS2 Madden sales -- a first. 360 Madden will be one of the top 3 selling titles on the platform and may be the best selling title in 2007.
I spell this all out because many Europeans don't understand the implications of Madden in the US. Madden is in many ways our Japanese Final Fantasy or Europes GT. Football is the most popular sport in NA. Madden the biggest football gaming brand and exclusive NFL partner. Big stuff there.
Major software card. 360 August 2007 sales were 90% of August 2006 Madden sales (897K to 1M) and the 360 version is nearing 1.3M units already.
Where Madden goes, so goes general sporting title support in NA. And where the sports titles go, sports gamers go.
The titles are all set. MGS4 or FF aren't magically hopping onto the 2007 release schedule. We have seen the impact of "big releases" on sales. We have seen the impact of "price drops" from both Sony and MS on sales. The table is set. 8 months of the year is completed with a consistant trend and we have seen how these variables impact sales trends.
Tell me 3 reasons why the trend from the last 8 months is going to be broken this holiday.
Just 3 reasons.
3 reasons why all the numbers are invalid for fall 2007.
As Laa-Yosh has shown in some very detailed past posts there there is a typical holiday trend, where sales tend double in November and double again in December compared to their respective baseline from previous months. This held true of MS in 2006.
August ~205K
September 259K
October 220K
-------------------- (about 2x)
November 511K
-------------------- (about 2x)
December 1,100K
The PS3 did draw within 11K in NA in July after their price cut and E3 announcements, and then MS cut their price and posted 130K+ difference in August. On the year it has been fairly consistant month-to-month with an average of about 80K unit difference. Every bit of evidence indicates Halo 3 is going to have a significant impact on 360 adoption. But ignoring the impact of the 360 price drop as well as the Halo effect it is reasonable to take the average mean from the year and look at the expected disparity growth as we should expect the PS3 and 360 sales to double in November and double again in December:
September 80k
October 80k
November 160k
December 320k
(640K units)
When you consider the impact from the 360 price drop, the Halo 3 release, and the continued strong sales for Madden (already another 300K units sold in September on the 360) I think 640K is extremely conservative for install base disparity growth in NA over the next 4 months. That is what I would call the absolute minimum.
The reason I said I wouldn't "be shocked" if MS had a 6M total install base lead in NA (instead of 5M), and that I thought I was being "slightly" conservative is because I do think that Halo 3 is by far the biggest exclusive killer app released this generation between the two consoles.
Would you disagree?
I also think NA consumers are price conscious, especially in the holiday period. I think project Panda from MS will find some consumers and will conceptually give the 360 a lower price tag. I think the impact from already released titles will continue to echo as well, notably Madden and Bioshock.
And you don't give any concrete feedback or reasons other being a fan expecting 100M world wide LTD for the PS3.
I am looking at the numbers we have because they are an objective way to look at the market. They are not perfect, and they don't tell the complete story. I totally agree we need to weigh shifts in the market, up coming software, and how trends are moving. I am not a psychic.
But the criticisms are full of opinion and platform advocacy with little rooting outside of, "My favorite AAA games are more important than everyone elses". A perfect example of this is there are posters who think UT3 will outsell Madden and Halo 3 in CY2007. Or that Uncharted is going to outsell Halo 3 and Madden.
Or fans who expect the PS3 to match the amazing PS2 sales, yet the environment isn't nearly as friendly nor the fact PS3 sales are staggeringly behind PS2 sales trends.
So we both have opinions. Mine are based on looking at the numbers as a gague of where we are and how new market forces may impact it. Your opinion is to criticize my use of the data and provide no firm thought process based on objective elements (sales data, pre-orders, past sale trends and current sales disparities, etc).
It is your opinion. Which you are allowed to have. But it seems to me your counterpoints are complaints about my use of data--yet you offer no compelling data or method to arrive at your own position.
Project Panda. Redesigned core with a memory card with arcade games on it. Confirmed
But consumers want system sellers now.
But it is on the Wii platform.
To get to 2009/2010 you need to get through 2007/2008. The Xbox had quite a few critically acclaimed games that sold amazingly well, notably in the 2004 period. Too little, too late.
At some point a console in NA will hit a "critical mass". My guess for NA title it will be the platform where the software sells best in NA. Publishers support platforms that sell their games. A truism of sorts.
Software selection (variety, quality, and depth) will be a major factor, for sure. Accessibility to such software is a valid dynamic. Past sales trends and how going below $200 indicate price is a factor for adoption to many consumers. The failure of consoles like the 3DO due to a high price indicates that price is a factor (even if some games are a lot better).
I don't believe in a single determining factor. There are many components.
Titles that generate early adopter motivation, the "IT" title to compell the mainstream, library selection and exclusives, platform cost & accessibility, hardware availability, services, marketing, consumer loyalty, and so forth.
Long term software will drive a platform. But those other dynamic impact where the software goes, too.
The Wii never "sucked at selling" and then "sold very well". The Wii has been a success since day 1 in all markets. The only arguement you can derive from the Wii is that when generations change the fortunes of a company and brand can as well.
And that is exactly my point.
And NA is Nintendo's best selling territory.
VGAChartzwehateyou said:
Wii is doing amazing, and yet MS still clings to a NA lead. MS is extremely strong in NA. Publishers see the strong NA install base and the strong NA sales. If I was a publisher publishing a title that appealed to NA I have to have compelling reasons not to put it on the 360.
There went my end of 2007 prediction
And I think you underestimate the importance of the first years of a console's life. You really don't see how the initial performance of the PS2 and all the things Sony did right from even before the launch created the environment that allowed them to have that breakthrough year?
I think we have all have a tendency to oversimplify things because the reality is too complex to fully grasp. One can look at this month's 360 sales and see a cause-and-effect of price drop, Madden, and BioShock and state that the sales increase was totally caused by those events. This ignores the other factors (however minor) that were already causing people to consider buying the system. I expect very few of those people went from no interest in a 360 to dropping at least $410 (includes a game) and committing to the system for this gen based on just those events. These were people that were already at a tipping point and these events were what pushed them into action.
That's what's really been the problem with the PS3 thus far. People are looking towards specific events as when you will see PS3 sales really start to take off. Then people have been blaming the event itself for not having that impact. The real problem, though, seems to be that not enough people are at a tipping point where these events can cause that result. When you consider its entire body of work since launch it hasn't moved enough people towards the point where they are just waiting for the right excuse to get a PS3.
Without doing extensive market research it's impossible to know the effect that these individual events (whether a price drop, a AAA title release. a new service or new function, etc.) have had beyond their effect on sales at the time they happen. Yet they all have the potential to, even if they don't produce sales at the time, move people so that the next event is what closes the deal.
And as a result of this it is not really going to be possible to predict how much impact a big release like MGS4 or FFXII is going to have on hardware sales based on prior iterations because the effect they had didn't occur in a vacuum. It was partially a product of the environment that existed at the time of their release. If Sony hasn't done enough in the interim to create the proper environment for those titles to have a big impact on sales then they are not going to. No matter the quality of the titles themselves. They will undoubtedly have an impact, though, even if it doesn't translate into immediate sales.
The same goes for Halo 3. We won't really know how many hardware sales it will generate at its launch because we don't know how many people there are who not only don't already have a 360, but are at the point where it is going to sufficiently influence them to buy one. But its likely to influence buyers long past its launch month and affect holiday sales and beyond.
great post ... looking back at the past performance of a previous generation (one that included a huge shift from VHS to DVD) without factoring in the climate leading up to those numbers is preposterous.
As you noted, it's one thing to observe the climate (as you did above) it's another to replicate it. I think looking at that post, MS being first to market and establishing the software foothold as they have was trying their best to replicate that climate to the best of their ability.
It is hardly a science however.
scooby_dooby
Legend
If Sony doesn't drop to $399 in time for holidays, 360 will probably outsell them by 1million in one month (december).
Without the pricedrop, MS will probably add 1.5-2million lead over Oct-Nov.
That's why the pricedrop is integral. To answer Joshua's earlier question, "How does it gain them momentum over MS?", it doesn't. But it stops the bleeding. It stops MS from extending it's lead much further.
If they can keep the gap <6million, then they can certainly catch up in the next 4 years. Maybe not surpass MS, but close the gap to a few million units, and at the end of the day you'd be looking at two systems with 30mil/32mill install base, very very close.
You'd have to assume Sony would lead MS ww and in Japan, so in such a scenario they would be #2 after Nintendo, with MS coming up 3rd.
As for outselling 100k/month on average, it's misleading for sure, since we can actually say each year consosts of 16 months (Nov/Dec are equal to 6 months of regular sales)
So, if you have 4 years, the amount Sony needs to outsell MS by is more around 78k/month during the non-holiday months.
Even that does seem hard to imagine, but like I said, even if they can only manage an average of 35k/month, that would close the gap to 2.5million at the end of the day, and both companies would be neck and neck in terms of market share.
So, will sony ever lead MS in NA? Probably not. But they can definately stay close enough that they can maintain publisher support in the US, and their WW lead over MS.
Also, I have a hunch that once the PS3 reaches $299 the 360 will have lost the majority of it's price advantage. It seems $299 (or at least $250) is the new mainstream threshold, and below that point MS will not be able to rely *as much* on a lower price to drive sales over Sony.
Good overview Scoob. You framed what I was saying in a more digestable form. Thanks.
You are correct. I was careful not to argue how far Sony will remain behind (could be close, could be far) or the WW dynamic. MS absolutely sucks in Japan. Sony has the ability to completely wipe out, from a WW perspective, any NA gains MS may have by totally throttling MS in Japan. And there is a high degree of probability that will happen.
I find that more likely than MS overtaking Sony in Japan (740K unit difference, only 15K units a month!)
You are correct. I was careful not to argue how far Sony will remain behind (could be close, could be far) or the WW dynamic. MS absolutely sucks in Japan. Sony has the ability to completely wipe out, from a WW perspective, any NA gains MS may have by totally throttling MS in Japan. And there is a high degree of probability that will happen.
I find that more likely than MS overtaking Sony in Japan (740K unit difference, only 15K units a month!)
They would have to OUTSELL MS by 35k a month. Problem is, currently there is a deficit of 80k/month. They would have to bridge that gap first.
On the other hand, I do have to say Madden sold better on PS3 than I expected. Relative to installed base it sold more than the 360 (897k / 7M < 336k / 2M). So maybe Assassin's Creed will relatively sell more on PS3 as well.
Excellent points. I would also add the peer factor. With online play becoming more important, being in the same console family becomes more imperative to peer interaction. The early start and compelling lead puts increasing pressure on new entries to join the 'camp' that there friends also belong too.
