NPD December 2007

[Laa-Yosh]

You mean "taking away market from the PS2"? Judging from the current sales, PS2's life expectancy is well beyond 2009.

No... Again, what I mean is casual gamers who bought a PS2 after its price dropped to $200, which was about 5 years ago. These are the people who haven't bought GTA, MGS, FF, DMC or similar hardcore games, and they're probably a quite large percentage of the ~110 million users out there.

They are probably looking forward to upgrade to a new console within a few years. Probably get a PS3 once it's cheap enough... but suddenly they notice the Wii in shops, with a radically new and totally fun controller, and new kinds of games as well as some of those that they've played on the PS2. And it's cheap enough as well at $250, and they've had the PS2 for long enough to get bored with it anyway.

So what I mean is that the Wii is taking away the future market of the PS3 today.

 

[scooby_dooby]

No... Again, what I mean is casual gamers who bought a PS2 after its price dropped to $200, which was about 5 years ago. These are the people who haven't bought GTA, MGS, FF, DMC or similar hardcore games, and they're probably a quite large percentage of the ~110 million users out there.

They are probably looking forward to upgrade to a new console within a few years. Probably get a PS3 once it's cheap enough... but suddenly they notice the Wii in shops, with a radically new and totally fun controller, and new kinds of games as well as some of those that they've played on the PS2. And it's cheap enough as well at $250, and they've had the PS2 for long enough to get bored with it anyway.

So what I mean is that the Wii is taking away the future market of the PS3 today.

There's no doubt about this. Only 20% of the PS2's userbase bought the GTA's, FF's etc. The rest are casual gamers.

Why in the world would the casual gamer be drawn to the PS3 as they were with the PS2?

I haven't heard a single rationale argument why this would be the case. Clearly, the Wii is the console of choice for these types of gamers this generation, it's easy to use, it's cheap and it's cool. That's the perfect combination for success in the casual userspace.

The PS2 attracted those users out of necessity. The gamecube/xbox offered no advantages to these users, and had a much smaller library of titles. The Wii, is a completely different story, and is built exactly to meet the needs of that casual user.

 

[Teasy]

You'd be right about your hair-splitting, except the 360 is selling much more 3rd party software than the other 2 combined.

The difference between extreme and slight isn't hair splitting really but whatever... Also I was only replying to your own statement that 360 had sold as many third party games as PS3 and Wii conbined (I've got no idea personally how many third party games each console is selling).

Out of interest have I missed some in depth third party sales comparisons here between the three consoles?

 

[one]

Why in the world would the casual gamer be drawn to the PS3 as they were with the PS2?

I haven't heard a single rationale argument why this would be the case. Clearly, the Wii is the console of choice for these types of gamers this generation, it's easy to use, it's cheap and it's cool. That's the perfect combination for success in the casual userspace.

Blu-ray. Isn't it simple?

 

[scooby_dooby]

The difference between extreme and slight isn't hair splitting mate... Also you were the one who said 360 was selling as well as PS3 and Wii combined in the first place

Out of interest have I missed some third party sales comparisons here? Or are you just basing this on the NPD top 10?

For example, EA's breakdown by platform, July - Sep:

Xbox 360 - $218 million
Nintendo Wii - $59 million
PlayStation 3 - $17 million
http://kotaku.com/gaming/electronic-arts/ea-sales-broken-down-by-platform-retailer-320179.php

That's not extremely lopsided??

Ubisoft has done a little better on Wii, with a couple strong titles, but it's still not comparing to huge successes on the 360.

Edit - And if you want to get picky, my original statement, about being extremely lopsided, was in reference to the Wii and 360 only.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Blu-ray. Isn't it simple?

Lol. Are you serious?

The people we're talking about, won't even be thinking about HD movies until players are sitting on shelves at $50 each. These aren't people who really care about visual fidelity.

 

[Arwin]

Blu-ray. Isn't it simple?

Or media features in general, of course. The PS3 infection in my office:

4 owners who previously owned no console
3 owners who previously owned a console

Pretty surprising, but then again in an IT company, anything goes of course.

 

[one]

Lol. Are you serious?

The people we're talking about, won't even be thinking about HD movies until players are sitting on shelves at $50 each. These aren't people who really care about visual fidelity.

I don't know how a rational argument it is, but people such as Disney executives seem to have the same opinion as me.

 

[Zassk]

Blu-ray. Isn't it simple?

Blu-ray is not a draw for anyone who qualifies as "casual" (gamer/nongamer).

 

[PARANOiA]

Why in the world would the casual gamer be drawn to the PS3 as they were with the PS2?

I haven't heard a single rationale argument why this would be the case.

Brand loyalty is a big factor for many people. I don't really know why, but I've heard a number of people saying things along the lines of "ooh, you have Skate? I'd love to play that but the PS3 is so expensive." When pointing out they can have a 360 + Skate + two free pack-ins for less than the cost of a PS3 without the cables they'd need, they just give me a blank look like I'm from another planet.

Branding is hugely important to the non-hardcore market, and it's something I don't doubt Sony will be able to bank on over the next few years barring any major mess-ups on their end. MS on the other hand is the poster-child for the "most hated company in the universe", so there you go.

Wii on the other hand is generally associated with "toy-gaming", a la the board game analogies I've heard in this thread, which is great for them. I'm sure this opens a far broader market than "niche" features like Gamertags or Bluray offer. And yes, BR (and HD media in general) is in my opinion very niche, given they're a very long way from eating into DVD sales in any significant form.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Out of interest have I missed some in depth third party sales comparisons here between the three consoles?

Microsoft made note of 3rd party sales in their end of year PR statement.

To date, 33 third party games on Xbox 360 hit the top 10 list across all consoles compared to five third party games on PS3, and four on Wii. These results confirm that third party partners create better games and reap more sales on Xbox 360 than any other platform.

But I've seen no discussion about it really aside from this thread.

 

[Crossbar]

But I've seen no discussion about it really aside from this thread.

Perhaps the time on the market could have something to do with those numbers.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Brand loyalty is a big factor for many people. I don't really know why, but I've heard a number of people saying things along the lines of "ooh, you have Skate? I'd love to play that but the PS3 is so expensive." When pointing out they can have a 360 + Skate + two free pack-ins for less than the cost of a PS3 without the cables they'd need, they just give me a blank look like I'm from another planet.

Branding is hugely important to the non-hardcore market, and it's something I don't doubt Sony will be able to bank on over the next few years barring any major mess-ups on their end. MS on the other hand is the poster-child for the "most hated company in the universe", so there you go.

Wii on the other hand is generally associated with "toy-gaming", a la the board game analogies I've heard in this thread, which is great for them. I'm sure this opens a far broader market than "niche" features like Gamertags or Bluray offer. And yes, BR (and HD media in general) is in my opinion very niche, given they're a very long way from eating into DVD sales in any significant form.

It's true, and MS can't compete with Sony there, but Nintendo can. I don't think it's brand loyalty as much as brand perception, among casuals anyways. And Nintendo has excellent brand perception, everyone likes Nintendo!

 

[patsu]

Lol. Are you serious?

The people we're talking about, won't even be thinking about HD movies until players are sitting on shelves at $50 each. These aren't people who really care about visual fidelity.

Blu-ray is not a draw for anyone who qualifies as "casual" (gamer/nongamer).

It looks like Blu-ray is indeed one of their key strategies. As HD TV adoption accelerates and Blu-ray momentum gathers, more people may jump on board.

e.g., According to http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=878 , sales of standalone Blu-ray players (with recording functions) in Japan increased to about 19+% (marketshare). Note that this number does not include PS3.

As for focus on High-Def, the BDA is likely to broaden Blu-ray appeal to interactivity and other features (Nothing in the Blu-ray name implies HD). In BDA CES press conference...

5:13pm - David Bishop from Sony pictures takes the podium and points out that the PS3 will continue to use bundled titles to help tell everyone that the PS3 is a Blu-ray player. Up until now the focus as been on early adopters, but now they are moving on to everyone, and that is what interactive features are all about.

The Blu-ray strategy is a complex animal with glaring weaknesses and yet some early/limited success. It's one of those long term moves that may not see immediate benefits, but the market seems to be shaping up slowly.

Will have to wait out for 2-3 years to see the actual outcome (Price point + more well-developed games + Blu-ray movies + 1 or 2 "new" things Sony introduces this year). Along the way, we should be able to obtain better information.

 

[RobertR1]

Just for fun, MS financials will be out on Thursday so that should give us something new to argue about.
Sit tight if you're running low on material (seeing the BR talk, clearly is the case )

 

[PARANOiA]

e.g., According to http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=878 , sales of standalone Blu-ray players (with recording functions) in Japan increased to about 19+% (marketshare). Note that this number does not include PS3.

19% of what, though, HD player sales? So 1 in 5 HD players were recorders? I don't see how that ties to BR (or HD in general) as a market being attractive to consumers as a focus towards the PS3 at all. Please fill in the gaps.

HD media is extremely niche at the moment, which is concerning given the "hardcore" movie buyer is likely re-buying their DVD collections too, yet failing to penetrate the DVD market. I simply can't see BR being the big feature to turn PS2 owners (the original discussion) into PS3 owners.

 

[patsu]

19% of what, though, HD player sales? So 1 in 5 HD players were recorders? I don't see how that ties to BR (or HD in general) as a market being attractive to consumers as a focus towards the PS3 at all. Please fill in the gaps.

Blu-ray took 90% if we consider only next gen DVD recorder/player sale in Japan during the same period (was told Japanese favored recorder than pure player). The 19% should be in-propotion to HD DVD and regular DVD recorders, excluding PS3 and 360 add-ons.

HD media is extremely niche at the moment, which is concerning given the "hardcore" movie buyer is likely re-buying their DVD collections too, yet failing to penetrate the DVD market. I simply can't see BR being the big feature to turn PS2 owners (the original discussion) into PS3 owners.

Like I said, let's see. We know next gen player sales is on the up trend so far.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/2008011...ectricaldvd;_ylt=AqKlPh0zQe76iZVJxHqjCygjtBAF


EDIT: I don't want to turn this thread into a Blu-ray one. I'm tracking Blu-ray in this thread instead. Might be better to channel Blu-ray questions there.

 

[PARANOiA]

Blu-ray took 90% if we consider only next gen DVD recorder/player sale in Japan during the same period (was told Japanese favored recorder than pure player). The 19% should be in-propotion to HD DVD and regular DVD recorders, excluding PS3 and 360 add-ons.



Like I said, let's see. We know next gen player sales is on the up trend so far.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/2008011...ectricaldvd;_ylt=AqKlPh0zQe76iZVJxHqjCygjtBAF


EDIT: I don't want to turn this thread into a Blu-ray one. I'm tracking Blu-ray in this thread instead. Might be better to channel Blu-ray questions there.

I would just like to understand your point that BluRay will drive PS2 owners to the PS3 on the last page. You then quoted that 19+% of recorders sold recently were BR recorders. Is the inference that this 20% of recorders will drive PS2 owners to PS3? I can't follow the connection you're trying to make. Please, clarify it for me.

 

[patsu]

I would just like to understand your point that BluRay will drive PS2 owners to the PS3 on the last page. You then quoted that 19+% of recorders sold recently were BR recorders. Is the inference that this 20% of recorders will drive PS2 owners to PS3? I can't follow the connection you're trying to make. Please, clarify it for me.

The question was/is whether Blu-ray can help attract casuals/non-gamers to PS3, not only convert PS2 owners. Many Wii owners are first time gamers too.

As next gen players gain share (from 6.1% to over 19% during the past 3 months), it is conceivable that PS3 gains too (since it is one of the best players -- although lacking recording function). Sony is probably trying to re-play the PS2 as DVD player card (to increase mass market adoption in different regions). Over the next few months, we should be able to see additional values/services.

 

[betan]

The Wii is selling to many PS2 users as well, and in that way it is taking away market from the PS3.

Is there a reference to back this claim up (PS2 part)?

For all I know, wii casuals are moms and grandmas.
There is casual, and there is casual.