NPD August 2007

[Rangers]

Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but it seems to me like 360 could push 450-500k in 5 week September between canada/usa. At any rate, even if it has a conservative month, 360's September USA NPD is going to obliterate all kinds of Xbox (1 or 360) records. It's going to be the best selling non-holiday month for a microsoft console, ever. I looked it up, (Xbox 1's best non-holiday month was 297k) And also the first one over 300k. Doing all this at an average price point (when you combine Elite and Premium sku's, core sales are almost non-existent) probably at $375 or higher. Pretty amazing. 360 is showing some real signs of breaking out. Especially if that rumored second price cut of the year materialises.

I've been stating all along that I dont really expect much bump from Halo 3 in 360 hardware, because historically individual games haven't really directly driven hardware sales. However I'm beginning to change my stance a bit, I noticed Halo 2 drove sales of Xbox hardware to 700,000+ that November, a significant bump over a "normal" November. ALso, I think Halo 3 hardware sku may be driving some hardware sales. In the end, a 400-500k USA NPD could be in the offing.

Combine with international sales, and ramping for the holidays, and MS could be shipping a real shitton of 360's these days. The last two Q's of course MS low ship numbers were often qouted as a source of concern. Well, they're probably about to ship I dunno, 6 million over a couple Q's here.

I'm starting to see the September launch of Halo 3 as a real positive move. They may get a "double bump" on hardware as well. And allowing 3 to launch by it's lonesome has really allowed them to build some hype. Halo is going to be huge either way, but launching in a thickly contested November may have been a lesser strategy.

 

[Arwin]

I'm starting to see the September launch of Halo 3 as a real positive move. They may get a "double bump" on hardware as well. And allowing 3 to launch by it's lonesome has really allowed them to build some hype. Halo is going to be huge either way, but launching in a thickly contested November may have been a lesser strategy.

I think it's impeccable timing. If you think Halo 3 is going to create a positive buzz, then releasing it in september should have the positive buzz culminate around the time people do their Christmas shopping.

 

[Rangers]

I think it's impeccable timing. If you think Halo 3 is going to create a positive buzz, then releasing it in september should have the positive buzz culminate around the time people do their Christmas shopping.

Yes if the game is good.

I think Gears of War had that effect. I'm certain Gears has sold more 360's than any other game right throughout August. It's such a great game, particularly the multi-player experience, that I'm sure many have seen it, and decided they need to pick up a 360.

People did the usual forgetting about a game after Gears released, but I'm sure it's been a system seller for months now. It doesn't hurt that for a very long time it easily had the best graphics in a released game. Perhaps Motortorm could compete but in a different genre, and recently Heavenly Sword, that's about it.

Gears legitimized to the masses 360's power. In fact, I would imagine that it convinced many casuals that 360 was actually more powerful, like Xbox before it. People who dont think about games too much, but are still gamers, probably looked at Gears next to Resistance, and figured 360 was the better system graphically, even though that's not necessarily true.

 

[aselto]

While you could say that Gears of War was a system seller (and it probably was, looking at attach rate at the time), last year's 360 Holiday season sales spike wasn't unusual - the sales in December were ~5 times of September sales, which is a norm for consoles in general.

What Halo 3 can do for Xbox 360 is that it can build momentum before Holiday season and maintain it during that period - assuming the game has great reviews and good word of mouth. The problem might be that its main stregth are online and community features not graphics, and it can be weakness, especially if you take into account that Xbox Live is a paid service.
Though if, thanks to Halo 3, Xbox 360 manages to sell 400k units in September, I think cards will be pretty much set for this Holiday season - it will really give the platform the momentum it needed especially with another huge title - Mass Effect - in late November.

The question to people living in NA - are Xbox 360s flying off shelves now, a week before Halo 3 release?

 

[TheChefO]

The question to people living in NA - are Xbox 360s flying off shelves now, a week before Halo 3 release?

Talking to local sales clerks in my area, no.

They said the system saw a nice spike when the pricedrop came, and leveled off to about twice what it was regularly moving (give or take). Recently though, they said it is slowing down a bit. Not to pre pricedrop levels, but not double either.

I'm going to predict xb360 unit sales at 260-300k* for sept.

Oct could push it back up a bit givin post launch halo3 buzz with 4 player coop getting owners other friends to "jump-in" seeing as though 3 others can join in the fun.

260-280k Oct
400-500k Nov
900-1200 Dec

Big variable could be Halo3's age rating. Anyone know how it will be rated? M etc

*adjusted

 

[Rangers]

Talking to local sales clerks in my area, no.

They said the system saw a nice spike when the pricedrop came, and leveled off to about twice what it was regularly moving (give or take). Recently though, they said it is slowing down a bit. Not to pre pricedrop levels, but not double either.

I'm going to predict xb360 unit sales at 220-240k for sept.

Oct could push it back up a bit givin post launch halo3 buzz with 4 player coop getting owners other friends to "jump-in" seeing as though 3 others can join in the fun.

260-280k Oct
400-500k Nov
900-1200 Dec

Big variable could be Halo3's age rating. Anyone know how it will be rated? M etc

Halo games are always M. Highlights the ratings flaws if you ask me, as it's a very mild game, except that you shoot..enemies (do you even shoot people?). For this to be rated the same as the Silent Hill's and Manhunt's of the world points out the ratings system flaws.

I was thinking about this the other day, it's almost like games need the movie equivalent of a PG-13. Something saltier than a PG, but still "mainstream".

However, retail doesn't seem to treat the game like a M, as it's highly touted, with mountain dew tie-ins at major grocery stores and all that, so I guess common sense does win over the "M" rating, as Halo gets treated like the mainstream property it is despite the "M" rating.

On to sales..September is a 5 week NPD..if you take the 360 sales rate in August, it is about 70k per week.

Simply assume that rate continues, and over 5 weeks, you get 350k.

But, wouldn't one assume 360 sales will actually increase over August rates, due to Halo 3 on Sep 25? Say it increases frrom 70k to 80k a week, seems plausible enough, that =400k.

I suppose, one could assume the rate will experience a tailing off from price drop effect wearing off that will counteract the effect from Hal0 3. I'm not expecting this, though.

I haven't "talked to any retailers" but the 360 hardware and software activity on amazon charts has been extremely strong the last couple weeks.

260-280k Oct
400-500k Nov
900-1200 Dec

Your Oct guess is solid. Maybe just a tad low, but not really. How you figure 360 will sell better in Oct than Sep is beyond me though, even though I'm pretty sure you're forgetting the extra week, it still doesn't make sense.

Nov: Also a tad low, last Nov=511k. This year it has both a lower price and H3.
Dec: Again a tad low. 1.1m last Dec, towards the high end of your range already, with same caveats as above.

But the one major question mark towards 360 sales is, the increased competition from Wii and PS3. Both have better games this year than last, and also will be more freely available.

PS3 sales in Nov and Dec will be terribly interesting..it has the potential to look really bad, if it's low sales continue. It's mid year monthly rates of ~80k, might lead one to believe it might do 250k Nov and 600k Dec or something..which would be embarrassing.

 

[TheChefO]

Good point on the 5 week period.

On the lower sales:

This year is a bit different than last year.

Competition will be on the shelf unlike last year and Wii has a LOT of momentum to take casuals and kids off the list. Once they are unavailable though, I expect xb360 core to cleanup the leftovers.

Counter to this point is a much stronger library and lower price like you said.

Also another unknown is if MS will drop the price again.

I figure they likely will (perhaps a mail-in rebate for money or free game etc) if Sony drops first.

If MS drops again, obviously that could be huge as they are still above mainstream pricing IMO.

edit- I'm late - you caught my points

but - I missed one of yours:

I figure Sept could be lower than Oct based on momentum from Halo3.

I think at first it won't move hw by itself. I think most that want h3 already have a box. The ones which would be picking up a new one would be those influenced to join their friends in 4 player coop.