NPD April 2008 (Post #16)

[Scott_Arm]

The business model of heavy hardware subsidization through software profits only works when you become market leader. It should noted that the longest player in this game Nintendo avoids this strategy and only Sony has only employed this strategy with any great success.

Only Nintendo is making money hands over fist while Sony and MS quarterly profits pale in comparsion to quarterly losses generated since release. What you have is two manufacturer destined for competing over a small highend hardcore segment of the market. Its makes no sense that the highest volume manufacturer with the most market penetration has the largest profit margin per console, while being the cheapest.

It also makes no sense that a market that generates 15-20 billion in revenue annually can only support one hardware manufacturer. Both MS and Sony have been subidizing their gaming division with profits generating from non gaming divisions. If Sony, MS and Nintendo had been gaming only companies both MS and Sony would be on the verge of collaspe. However, if Sony and MS were game only companies they would have been more careful with how they enter and sustain themselves in the market.

Your posts regarding the business models are fantastic.

 

[acaeus]

The business model of heavy hardware subsidization through software profits only works when you become market leader. It should noted that the longest player in this game Nintendo avoids this strategy and only Sony has only employed this strategy with any great success.

Only Nintendo is making money hands over fist while Sony and MS quarterly profits pale in comparsion to quarterly losses generated since release. What you have is two manufacturer destined for competing over a small highend hardcore segment of the market. Its makes no sense that the highest volume manufacturer with the most market penetration has the largest profit margin per console, while being the cheapest.

It also makes no sense that a market that generates 15-20 billion in revenue annually can only support one hardware manufacturer. Both MS and Sony have been subidizing their gaming division with profits generating from non gaming divisions. If Sony, MS and Nintendo had been gaming only companies both MS and Sony would be on the verge of collaspe. However, if Sony and MS were game only companies they would have been more careful with how they enter and sustain themselves in the market.

Good points, but how to factor in (if at all possible this early in the game) the Blu-ray format, and what it will mean down the road?

IMO, MS is once again the biggest loser in the gaming industry. Just because, even though Sony also lost (bad) to Nintendo, they've won the HDM market with the PS3. It's like, out of the two losers, one has an excuse. :smile:

 

[iceberg187]

Good points, but how to factor in (if at all possible this early in the game) the Blu-ray format, and what it will mean down the road?

IMO, MS is once again the biggest loser in the gaming industry. Just because, even though Sony also lost (bad) to Nintendo, they've won the HDM market with the PS3. It's like, out of the two losers, one has an excuse. :smile:

Err..., Sony bet the house on the PS3. Being the defacto HD movie format and being the defacto movie format are two different things. Perhaps you should read some of the latest news clippings on Blu-Ray and how it has been slowing since the HD 'win'

Overall, Microsoft and Sony overshot this generation and what they thought people wanted. The cost investment is too high, akin to having to upgrade a PC. HDTV adoption goes up at a glacial pace, they both messed up. The cost advantage of DVD is much greater than what Blu-Ray represents.

 

[-tkf-]

Seriously?
Of the three new systems,it has the most diverse lineup of software,and allows people to interact with that software in the most ways and all for sale at the most affordable price of the three. Seems fairly straight forward.

Yes seriously, i had a gamecube where most of the games were already present. I did not fall for the love stick and chuckíe, not yet at least. In some games i felt it was more "forced" than an actual part of the game (maybe because it was).

When it´s priced more reasonable i will add one for my Console collection and play platform games, but as i said, i dont understand it.

 

[Rangers]

Yes seriously, i had a gamecube where most of the games were already present. I did not fall for the love stick and chuckíe, not yet at least. In some games i felt it was more "forced" than an actual part of the game (maybe because it was).

When it´s priced more reasonable i will add one for my Console collection and play platform games, but as i said, i dont understand it.

We all dont understand it because we're hardcore gamers, and we're not the type that plays Wii.

Typical Wii player is more likely to be a girl, who doesn't care that much about games, and is going to pick up the system and two or three bright casual games that aren't very deep with Nintendo characters in them, and not play or care about the system all that much, except every six months when a "big" new franchise comes out (like Wii fit). Then they're going to be like "oh my gosh I have to haaave it!". It's basically like a cool cellphone or an ipod to them.

 

[PARANOiA]

Great post, dobwal.

 

[Rangers]

The business model of heavy hardware subsidization through software profits only works when you become market leader. It should noted that the longest player in this game Nintendo avoids this strategy and only Sony has only employed this strategy with any great success.

Only Nintendo is making money hands over fist while Sony and MS quarterly profits pale in comparsion to quarterly losses generated since release. What you have is two manufacturer destined for competing over a small highend hardcore segment of the market. Its makes no sense that the highest volume manufacturer with the most market penetration has the largest profit margin per console, while being the cheapest.

It also makes no sense that a market that generates 15-20 billion in revenue annually can only support one hardware manufacturer. Both MS and Sony have been subidizing their gaming division with profits generating from non gaming divisions. If Sony, MS and Nintendo had been gaming only companies both MS and Sony would be on the verge of collaspe. However, if Sony and MS were game only companies they would have been more careful with how they enter and sustain themselves in the market.

I'm not sure, but it seems like 360 could have a good chance of being profitable for it's life, if not for the 1B RROD charge. So if you had a hypothetical situation where the system didn't blow up, which isn't that hard to imagine. I know they've profited about 600 million the last three quarters. I'm not sure what their 360 non RROD write off losses prior to that have been.

Another thing is, if Sony or MS was to drop out, the other would be selling 400-500k systems per month, and outselling the Wii most months (which was the case for comined PS3+360 sales most months before the last two). And probably wouldn't need much in the way of pricedrops without competition.

I disagree the hadcore market is small. It was the Ps2 market which has shipped 130 million consoles and became bigger than box office grosses before we'd ever heard of Wii. And games like GTA and Halo make money just as real as any Nintendo does.

 

[Zassk]

It seems to me that multiplayer games have simply been neglected for too long in the console market. The market wanted multiplayer. MS and Sony have made baby steps toward making multiplayer a common/standard feature, but it was always a tertiary focus in the HD era. With the Wii, on the other hand, Nintendo went directly for the party-game multiplayer crowd, the crowd for whom gaming is a social activity, and it's paid off big time.

I still think there is room for both types of products on the market - an HD console with big-budget games and value-added features, and a cheap console with simplified controls and Flash-equivalent games. Both of them could have thrived if they had targeted social gaming. With proper execution, I think the HD consoles would probably have performed closer to on-par with the Wii. Both MS and Sony have made mistakes, and it may have cost them 50% of their potential sales for this generation.

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

We all dont understand it because we're hardcore gamers, and we're not the type that plays Wii.

Typical Wii player is more likely to be a girl, who doesn't care that much about games, and is going to pick up the system and two or three bright casual games that aren't very deep with Nintendo characters in them, and not play or care about the system all that much, except every six months when a "big" new franchise comes out (like Wii fit). Then they're going to be like "oh my gosh I have to haaave it!". It's basically like a cool cellphone or an ipod to them.

I'm sorry, but you dare to call yoursell a hardcore gamer and then say the wii is for girls? You mean your a gfx whore just like many so called hardcore gamers. Any real gamer (if something like that actually exists) will look at the total game, not just if it has flashy hd gfx or not...

 

[Rangers]

I'm sorry, but you dare to call yoursell a hardcore gamer and then say the wii is for girls? You mean your a gfx whore just like many so called hardcore gamers. Any real gamer (if something like that actually exists) will look at the total game, not just if it has flashy hd gfx or not...

Disagree. I generally care about good graphics more than gameplay. I dont aplogize for that. I think any hardcore does.

Of course we dont like to play good looking pieces of crap, but there will always be good looking games that play well.

I remember when I was about 14 watching some guys play Ultima 6 on PC. I told them I wanted to get a NES. I remember them sneering.."ewww..that has terrible graphics" or something of the sort. Later, after I got a Genesis, I imagined showing them "Ha! Look at the graphics on this sucker!" which were as good or better than Ultima 6. Of course this was 20 years ago. It's an innate reaction.

 

[Silenti]

Here I thought I would be tarred and feathered on here for what I said. For those who sent private messages and posted back a positive, my thanks. I was quite surprised. I half expected to see a ban on me when I logged back in!

Well Wii managed to poach Monster Hunter 3 from PS3. Who knows maybe Resident Evil 6 will return to Wii. Looking at Japan I'm waiting for Square Enix to anounce the switch of FF13 from PS3 to Wii, much like FF7 from N64 to PSX. Over there PS3 is tracking worst than Gamecube at this stage with no console mover in sight.

But most likely Wii won't poach the hardcore titles, what it will do is reduced the number of hardcore titles from HD systems as 3rd parties shift resources from HD systems to Wii.

I know nothing of Monster Hunter, other than it is a big title in Japan. The name leads me to believe it would suit the Wii, but again, I know nothing of the title. The FF series however. With the screens that have been shown off and the general demands of the game... I just don't see the Wii as a viable platform. (Note: I am not a FF player, I simply know a coule of people who are. I get the idea they woud be incredibly disappointed with a switch and all that entails.

During the N64/PSone era, games like Super Mario 64, Zelda: OOT and Goldeneye sold mountains of copies, but the N64 was still irrelevant. It was all about the PSone because it had the most sales. Unfortunately, the Xbox 360 and the PS3 are simply seen by the mainstream as the console that nerds, virgins, perverts (Soul Calibur 4 is apparently trying to appeal to this crowd ) and losers buy. Microsoft and Sony need to change this "perception" before the next generation begins. If they dont, they will fall into the abyss of irrelevance again.

I cannot see that happening. MS will put out its own motion controller soon (based on rumors.) As I stated above, I think the onus will be on the Wii to remain relevant. The inclusion of a good motion controller next gen or part way through this gen, packaged with a game that uses it and working with various arcade titles, etc, could be enough. Not to stem the tide. But certainly to be setup for the next generation. What will Nintendo do next? They were approaching irrelvancy before the DS and Wii took off. What's their next trick. 3-D seems a ways off. Their games do not need HD, at least not the ones I have seen. MS and Sony seem further along on the motion capture/voice communications route. Really, Nintendo better come up with a dang good trick again or they are going to get hit. Least that is how I read it. The Wii is a social fad. I don't mean fad in a necessarily bad manner, but a fad none the less. So what is Nintendo's next move?

Actually, I think the answers to all your questions above may be "Yes", but not in the ways people think, and certainly not abruptly. There is a lot of growth in that area. People are still trying to learn about the newcomers. The forward looking execs are probably already thinking about (or working on) them. Imagine if there is a 3rd party system seller for the Wii market, I don't think it would be smaller than GTA4 or Halo3. In any case, I believe it's a positive event for the industry. I also believe that companies can learn a thing or two from a Wii game as PS3/360 userbase extends.

Although many hardcore games may stay the same, _where game making is concerned_ (not talking about marketing), I am not fully convinced yet about the clean separation (Is Donkey Kong or Pong a hardcore game or casual game during its time ? What is the equivalent of these game today ?). Can hardcore games get the Disney treatment ? I don't know. Someone may be able to do it for some games, especially when even hardcore gamers get sick of them.

These sales threads would be more interesting if people are calm about it. I am not sure where all the negativity comes from. Racing for unit number is one thing, but as people pointed out... making money is also important.

There is a lot of growth and Nintendo has nabbed it with both hands on the console side. Good for business. Congrats. I do believe there is a pretty hard separation between the types of gamers. Appealing to both would be great. Nintendo found a way to get their traditional crowd that always buys their systems for the franchise exclusives. What they have seemed to fail at, and it looks they are continuing to fail at, is appealing to an audience more discerning and/or more demanding. The Nintendo fans grew up, and Nintendo did not grow up with them while keeping their older franchises running for the younger crowd in previous generations. Nintendo won't have the exclusive on motion control next gen. (I'm not counting MS's rumored "Newton" or the somewhat wonky implementation in the PS3 controller. So what's their gimick next time? We all have a pretty good idea of the possibilities. Voice commands (rudimentary this time around), 3-D - probably not going to be ready for prime time for a bit, online play and communication and downloaded content. Where does Nintendo have left to go?

My only personal upset has more to do with a few mistakes, bad ones and well know at this point (RROD, high initial prices, etc.) and most certainly, the lack of great story lines that you see in books and movies. Thousands of years of storytelling and retelling, and what we receive is rarely up to snuff. The Wii is going to bring us the equivalent of the movie "Cars." A story line hijacked, off the top of my head, from Doc Hollywood, Steve McQueen, Days of Thunder and Stroker Ace then Disneyfied. Those weren't exactly top notch movies to begin with. This is what somewhat upsets me. HALO dug around in the Bible and use pop culture references for entertainment. Quite a difference in material elements. I just want the game I want, with a controller that offers precision, fits in my hands and offers a high level of complexity. The Wii and Nintendo are not going to offer that. If the 3rd parties start throwing some development the Wii's direction, just what kind of game is that going to be?

I don't think PS3 or Xbox360 is seen by the mainstream in this fashion at all. I haven't talked to anyone who has such an opinion.

The thing that really bugs me about the Wii is that it seems that by and large the people that buy them do not truly enjoy the games they're playing. There's clearly exceptions, a few of my friends absolutely love super smash brothers for example, but it seems like most Wii owners couldn't give a dam about gaming in the same way as I do. There's just no emotional connection to the games, they are pure and simple time killers with very little depth and complexity.

But what circles do we run in? Not just gamers, but the people you associate with overall? Those I know play "hardcore" games, or don't play games and don't get them.

I cut the wiimote like controler as there is already a thread about it, and my opinion is clearly wiimote / nunchuck (even if improvement are needed) have have been clearly acclaimed by costumer as a new standard IMHO.

No one can afford to pass on a standard for to long, IMHO.

I'm almost sure that msg 4 won't move many units, expecially due the timing release.

For GeoW II, (and other titles for MS this fall) it's more discussable, especially as MS is likely to face this fall with a very interesting price, after this summer I feel that MS will at last have done the job with all reliability problem they encounter and they will have cheaper system to manufacture.
Thus they will be in situation to make estimation about how much the whole RroD costed (or still will but I guess they already have precise estimations) them, how much they earn through systems & sales vs cut profits to expand market share.

They seems in a better situation than Sony in this regard (who seems under pressure the pressure of auctions owners and accordingly to change in the executives), they can afford a last hit to win some more market share.

But clearly the price is a huge issue, there are a lot of gamers even casual who like the kind of games you find on the 360/ps3 who still wait for lower price.

And I feel like we should not compare the price of the WIi vs say arcade SKU (pro is more relevant but I choose this one because the price are close), people that buy the Wii may have pay more than what Nintendo ask.
BAsicely it sells almost like a "board game" for party playing with friends girlfriends child etc., but an expensive one, thus people who buy have money.

Not all hardcore are blessed with huge budget (or HD tv).
What I mean is the public that buy the ps3/360 might be more price conscious than the one who buy the Wii as no more less than expansive party game used from time to time.

A new standard? Maybe like rumble, only more intrusive. Certainly in need in a great deal more precision. How many are the hardcore who will not give up that precision or their preferred style of gameplay and storyline for what Nintendo offers? How large is that group? I'd agree with you that entry price, if you do not have a good tv set/ HD set is a large barrier. The prices are not coming down fast enough and peoples entertainment budgets are getting eaten up by commodity prices. No question. The Wii as a party option in lieu of a pack of cards is the point I was sort of making. Cards, boardgames, etc. This is not going to help games mature. More people gaming, good. Unless it is just a short term FAD that last 5 years or so and then everyone goes back to the latest interactive DVD game. Hard to say.

You forgot anti-social murdering psychopaths, but otherwise, you nailed it. Gaming's been seen as this evil spawn of satan by the general public and gamers are like social outcasts. Unless they broaden the appeal, we'll always remain that way. Many of today's so called "hardcore" gamers are a joke. They can barely play anything outside of one or two genres, and can't handle anything remotely challenging. This also causes the market to lose quite a bit of creativity. People want to just play the same genre they're good at and can't do anything else beyond that. I mean, I really can't think of anything recently on either 360 or PS3 that doesn't look like it's "been there done that."

When people can create, or have drastic effects on the storyline, as they play, against AI, others or both, then we can see it. Do you see the Wii having that effect? Maybe I qualify for your classification. FPS, racers - preferably with heavy sim elements, GTAIV, RTS, Strategy hybrid. I have a few outside those genres, but you will not find something like CakeMaker (or whatever that Flash game is called resident on my computer.) Repeatable, stable control environment is a good thing. It means you don't have to relearn all those muscle memories. Or the adjustments are more minor. As for creativity. Tons out there we, the hardcore, are waiting for. Hate having to jump to get off the street onto a curb. That has been fixed in many recent games. Gameplay mechanics has a long way to go. Same with visuals, AI, interactivity, conventions - like boxes and doors you cannot get through even if you drive a car into that flimsy wooden piece of junk. We are awaiting the Shakespeare, the Ridley Scott, Neil Gaiman. We just don't see the Wii giving us that. At least I don't, not now or in the future. Nintendo used a motion control. That was the extent of their creativity. As I understand it, the Sword did not mime your motions, the tennis racket moved, but you did not move your player, the bow opened - but the power bore not relation to how far apart you drew the controllers, etc. It's a rudimentary implementation that is replacing board games at family gatherings. Just what the game industry needs to be taken seriously.

Wii's success shouldn't be a surprise by now.

I still think that Nintendo had a better analysis of the previous generation, and realized that the greater part of the PS2 userbase wasn't into the hardcore segment of its game library. For every person who bought GTA, there were another 4 who didn't, and that was the most successful core game on the platform, and also the coolest. Games like MGS, FF, God of War, Ratchet and the like sold to what, 3-8% of the user base at most? If we'd add up sales for all these big games, how much would it cover from the ~1 billion units of software sold for the PS2? I wouldn't be surprised if it would be less then half, you need to have 500 million sellers or 250 double million sellers for that. It'd be interesting to analyze software charts a bit...

So the PS2 userbase was a lot more varied than what we've used to believe. Since it became the lead platform early on, all kinds of developers flocked to it, not just the big name hardcore studios like Square or Konami or Naughty Dog. Fishing and hunting games, kids' movie adaptations, party games and everything else were all released on the PS2 mainly, so casual gamers haven't really had a choice. And of course this only strengthened the PS2's position and led even more developers to the platform.

The games library for the console has thousands of titles, most of which we've never even heard about, because they've never really made it to the TOP 10 or million seller lists. But all these small titles added up in the end and contributed a lot to Sony's profits as well.

But this time its different, it seems most of the PS2 user base choose the Wii for their next console, and both the games and the price have played a big role in this, and of course the controller as well. It's actually rather fortunate this way as we'll get a much clearer picture of the structure of the market, as hardcore gamers will obviously still buy PS3s and Xboxes mostly.
I wouldn't be surprised to see similar sales as last gen for the hardcore franchises, while the Wii will eventually get the huge library of low budget casual games that we've simply overlooked on the PS2.

As for the current lack of sales, GTA will have an effect, just give it some time. GTA3 has continued to move hardware for almost a year, and now everyone's disappointed that 5 days in the slowest month have not produced something similar to that...

These smaller titles. Would they not now be covered by Live/PSN? I am personally unaware of any PS2 owner jumping to the Wii. Not statistically relevant of course, but all those little games and the people who bought them are catered to on the other systems. Just not in a traditional fashion. It would be very interesting to see how many Wii owners are new/intermittent console owners and how many were people who bought a PS2. I'd place a bet on a significant percentage waiting for the price to drop given that the PS2 is still selling software and systems. Not to mention, how many moved to handhelds in lieu of a tv system.

for the xbox360 this is the first month theyve sold less than 200k, since they dropped the price last year
April07 174000
may07155000
june07 198440
jult07 170000
aug07 276700 // pricecut

though looking at the modest jump, even a pricecut is not gonna help against the wii machine

i dont know why (dont wanna face the truth,which is reasonable i suppose) ppl say the wii aint competeing against the ps360, of course it is for the dollars, a consumer has a fixed X number of dollars a week to spend on 'luxury' items, if they're spending them on wiifit they prolly wont pick up mgs4.

i dont think mgs4 is gonna do that well, (it might have good legs though, if its a quality title)

In the broadest sense you are correct. However, how many of us have an entertainment budget as opposed to threshold prices v. desires instead of an overall budget? I don't budget for movies, because I see so few that are worth going to the theatre for. I don't budget for books, I buy the authors and sometimes raid the bargain bin. For games? Same as books. Truly I think the "entertainent" budget idea is far too broad. For many, the Wii purchase may not even be considered in the "gaming" budget given its attractions/detractions. It may fall into the same category as kids toys, impulse/boredom, beer/food for the family get together. It may fall outside the gaming category entirely when related to budgets.

Seriously?
Of the three new systems,it has the most diverse lineup of software,and allows people to interact with that software in the most ways and all for sale at the most affordable price of the three. Seems fairly straight forward.

Innovative? Perhaps new to the mass consumer. I'll grant that much. Inexpensive? Yes, and it shows in spades. Most diverse? What diversity? Perhaps I need to become more familiar with what is available, but all I hear about is cartoon sports, cartoon racing and Fit, outside of the traditional Nintendo franchises. When I say cartoon, I don't just mean graphically, but in play style. The PS360 is paintball with enough pressure to bruise and the Wii is nerf football. They both have their places. I just hope the world isn't nerfed.

This is very sad, at least in my view of the way the gaming industry should be heading. I would love to see games with 500 million + budgets in the next few years that could actually compete and overtake CGI films with art/development/acting/etc etc resources. I work with Film and TV projects on a daily basis, and I really believe that we could be within a generation or two of gaming releases taking over the status of what blockbuster films used to mean.

GTA IV is close to this today, but technically, it is very sad. Horrible variable frame rate, very akward driving camera. Games these days need the help of actual cinematographers. Someone to calculate camera movement limits with blur associated to frame rate, to divide scenes and make sure the camera doesnt cross the 180 degree line to keep the player from being confused by the space.

There are litteraly hundreds of things that games need to take from the almost 100+ years of filmmaking development. What does this have to do with the Wii? The Wii is not pushing development in the way I'd like to see the industry grow. It is selling fun/awful looking games in a time where we should be selling fun epic masterpieces like Heavenly Sword.

For me, Metal Gear Solid on the PSX was the "Birth of a Nation" (which is a truly awful racist movie) for the gaming world. For me, the Wii is like the equivalent of going back to the "Great Train Robbery" and presenting it in 3D. The gimick of the Wiimote is holding back the potential development of future blockbusters.

Couldn't agree more. Only the actors for the Great Train Robbery would be people like Hannah Montana.

Good points, but how to factor in (if at all possible this early in the game) the Blu-ray format, and what it will mean down the road?

IMO, MS is once again the biggest loser in the gaming industry. Just because, even though Sony also lost (bad) to Nintendo, they've won the HDM market with the PS3. It's like, out of the two losers, one has an excuse. :smile:

BR isn't doing so hot. Time and price may change that, sure. When? The real question being, will it be soon enough to matter. Sony bragged about using an new storage on each system. What are they going to do next time in 4 years? The market is in flux with all the technology shifting. Maybe most hold off till they can afford to replace that old big screen with an HD plasma of the same size and by then........

We all dont understand it because we're hardcore gamers, and we're not the type that plays Wii.

Typical Wii player is more likely to be a girl, who doesn't care that much about games, and is going to pick up the system and two or three bright casual games that aren't very deep with Nintendo characters in them, and not play or care about the system all that much, except every six months when a "big" new franchise comes out (like Wii fit). Then they're going to be like "oh my gosh I have to haaave it!". It's basically like a cool cellphone or an ipod to them.

Better analogy than I used. Just wanted to acknowledge it. The damned thing can be an accessory for some people.

It seems to me that multiplayer games have simply been neglected for too long in the console market. The market wanted multiplayer. MS and Sony have made baby steps toward making multiplayer a common/standard feature, but it was always a tertiary focus in the HD era. With the Wii, on the other hand, Nintendo went directly for the party-game multiplayer crowd, the crowd for whom gaming is a social activity, and it's paid off big time.

I still think there is room for both types of products on the market - an HD console with big-budget games and value-added features, and a cheap console with simplified controls and Flash-equivalent games. Both of them could have thrived if they had targeted social gaming. With proper execution, I think the HD consoles would probably have performed closer to on-par with the Wii. Both MS and Sony have made mistakes, and it may have cost them 50% of their potential sales for this generation.

But it is much easier, technically speaking, for MS and Sony to offer a step down with some games and the controller than it is for Nintendo to step up their offerings. Speaking of both the midterm and long term future.

I'm sorry, but you dare to call yoursell a hardcore gamer and then say the wii is for girls? You mean your a gfx whore just like many so called hardcore gamers. Any real gamer (if something like that actually exists) will look at the total game, not just if it has flashy hd gfx or not...

Flashy graphics help with immersion/suspension of disbelief. It's why the original 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea looks funny now, but modern movies require loads of funding and talent to create something believable. The bar got raised each time out and you have to match it to realize that suspension of desbelief. See the debate about the "Navigator" set in the original Aliens film. A full expensive set for one shot. That one shot was part of that suspension and a key one, so it was worth it in Ridley Scott's view. Seems he was proved correct. The same with actually using Geiger's work for the Alien. Can you imagine that kind of game on the Wii? I look at the total game. The Wii doesn't measure up for me. Motion control or no motion control.

 

[mrcorbo]

@ Silenti - Wow that was a long one. Good points, though I have to admit I did skim over parts of it.

As a 360 owner, I am fairly content with where that console is in spite of the stagnant hardware sales and the overwhelming sales of the Wii. Great titles are lined up for the remainder of the year in a similar fashion to the way they were last year. It would be nice to own the dominant hardware platform for the increased software support that implies, but I had an XBOX last gen and don't regret that at all. There were some great gaming experiences I had on that system that I wouldn't trade for all the PS2's diversity. It helps that I will always have a competent gaming PC available to fill in the gaps in the release schedule, if necessary.

Seperate from this, MS have a good chance of convincing Wii developers to port their games to 360 if they can get their motion controller into enough hands. That'a a big if, though. They'd have to do a pack in with a game that is compelling to a large portion of the 360 user base and given the makeup of that user base I don't think a Wii Sports clone is going to do it. If successful, though, they'd at least be able to extract some benefit from the likely increased publisher support of the Wii. And being able to offer both the hardcore and casual experience in one box has got to be compelling to at least some segment of the gaming population.

Do I think any of this stops the Wii from continuing to dominate the hardware and eventually the software sales charts? Nope. Does that matter to me? Not yet.

 

[acaeus]

Err..., Sony bet the house on the PS3. Being the defacto HD movie format and being the defacto movie format are two different things. Perhaps you should read some of the latest news clippings on Blu-Ray and how it has been slowing since the HD 'win'

Overall, Microsoft and Sony overshot this generation and what they thought people wanted. The cost investment is too high, akin to having to upgrade a PC. HDTV adoption goes up at a glacial pace, they both messed up. The cost advantage of DVD is much greater than what Blu-Ray represents.

(And Silenti)
They bet the house and won. It's way too early to be judging how much income it will generate, but IMO it's going to be meaningful from the royalties alone.

People were expecting the shift from DVD to BR way too soon, partly because of the HDM format war and heavily subsidized prices (specially on the HD-DVD camp). There is no reason to hush this one, if they take their time everybody wins @ top prices and margins.

Considering adoption, I'm skeptical of how much we, the consumer, can really do. Adoption will happen when the few guys who own the movie industry decide it's time and start phasing out DVDs.

This whole thing is too ironic... When MS finally has a shot at winning (gaming), cause Sony bet the house on Blu-ray (and it did cost them), Nintendo hits a home run. :smile:

 

[thatdude90210]

Funny how so many at "Beyond 3D" can't see beyond 3D graphics. Did you guys see the opening hour stampede to the Nintendo booth to try the Wiimote at E3 06? Did you guys see the 4 hour waits just to try the Wiimote at the same event?

Clearly the masses are yearning for something new, and that something new isn't more shaders, more vertices, nor more pipelines. People want more interactive ways to play games, not the same old way, now with more shaders! and normal mapping!. The Wii gave people something new, and that's one reason it's winning.

Sony & MS should have started working on their version of the Wiimote when they saw what transpired at E3 06. And if they didn't, then they both deserved to lose.

 

[one]

What will Nintendo do next? They were approaching irrelvancy before the DS and Wii took off. What's their next trick.

They're not sitting still, Wii Fit is a new platform on its own while it's said "peripherals don't work" in the past.

These smaller titles. Would they not now be covered by Live/PSN? I am personally unaware of any PS2 owner jumping to the Wii. Not statistically relevant of course, but all those little games and the people who bought them are catered to on the other systems. Just not in a traditional fashion. It would be very interesting to see how many Wii owners are new/intermittent console owners and how many were people who bought a PS2. I'd place a bet on a significant percentage waiting for the price to drop given that the PS2 is still selling software and systems. Not to mention, how many moved to handhelds in lieu of a tv system.

I agree that most of Wii owners are new into videogames. They either actively hated videogames or ignored them. For those people, buying a game console such as PS2 was just an alien concept.

On the other hand, Wii has a non-intrusive form factor. Though I don't necessarily believe console form factor influences buyers much, at least it shows the designer's intent. In fact Iwata has been saying they wanted it not to be disliked by family members. I think it's not all excuses for GC1.5. Then, the Wii-mote is the best move, it utilizes preexisting familiarity with TV remote in people. This is not an idea that can be deduced from the progression of computer science or semiconductor engineering. Probably it's one of the occasions when Sony HQ executives regretted they couldn't conceive it as a TV manufacturer. PS2/3 has DVD/BD playback to make it a TV companion i.e. set-top box. Nintendo approached it from a different direction.

With a non-intrusive interface and hidden presence beside a TV, Wii is now an ideal home computer imagined by Bill Gates and others as the future even though the Wii hardware is not cutting-edge. It's cheap and affordable. Since most TV programs are crappy and simple already, casualness of casual games won't be a major problem. But new contents will also flock to Wii. In Japan, edutainment software which might be published on PC 10 years ago are released on NDS and selling nicely. Though Wii lacks a touch sensor or a keyboard, Nintendo will try to produce more non-game software on Wii. When Wii Fit and other software gain enough acclaim, Nintendo will shed off its traditional kiddy image and emerge as a new brand. Wii 2 will show it.

But of course I don't think other manufactures don't have a chance, the only hurdles are hardware cost reduction, launch timing of a countermeasure, and pinpoint marketing as good as Wii's.

 

[Zaphod]

They either actively hated videogames or ignored them. For those people, buying a game console such as PS2 was just an alien concept.

You know, I think you're right and I think you're wrong.

Loads of those people did buy a PS2, yet they didn't. They didn't buy a Playstation 2; the games console made by Sony; delivering such games as GTAIII, GT4, PES, GoW, and Whathaveyou. What they did buy was DDR, Singstar, Buzz... and that box you need to play Singstar... Those "gamers" might not fit the image of a PS2 *gamer* among forum dwellers, but I'm quite certain they add up to no small number.

 

[one]

You know, I think you're right and I think you're wrong.

Loads of those people did buy a PS2, yet they didn't. They didn't buy a Playstation 2; the games console made by Sony; delivering such games as GTAIII, GT4, PES, GoW, and Whathaveyou. What they did buy was DDR, Singstar, Buzz... and that box you need to play Singstar... Those "gamers" might not fit the image of a PS2 *gamer* among forum dwellers, but I'm quite certain they add up to no small number.

Of course I don't deny there are such people. However, wrt this thread, the main thing to discuss is why Nintendo could gain that much new audience in a month which was traditionally said to be relatively quiet. I think even if all PS2 users defected it couldn't show such a clear trend. Also, Singstar and Buzz are European franchises.

 

[Tap In]

as much as many "gamers" are buying Wii, I think we forget in our calculated projections here that PARENTS, who have no allegiance to a platform or name brand, are buying these systems.

they could not care less what was on a system last gen or what the name is. all they know is the kids (and other parents) are talking about NINTENDO Wii (a name recognizable from the parents' youth as a fun, kid friendly machine) which is once again cool, small and affordable fun for the family.

it's the same reason many of them bought PS2's.

this conception that millions of PS2 owners are biding their time for the switch to PS3 is overblown. MANY of those PS2 owners were parents who bought what their kids wanted when all the games were on PS2.

that's not true this gen.

 

[Zaphod]

I think even if all PS2 users defected it couldn't show such a clear trend. Also, Singstar and Buzz are European franchises.

I really don't think of it as "defecting" for these kinds of customers. While they might buy more titles for a system they own, it's not really a multipurpose games console but a machine bought for a particular purpose. "Having Singstar" doesn't preclude getting Wii Sports as much as having a PS2 precludes getting an Xbox. If anything, the fact that Sony (except for Guitar Hero) didn't cater much to the NA market with those kinds of games might just have made it easier for Nintendo to stand out to consumers with such purchasing sensitivities.

 

[assen]

Funny how so many at "Beyond 3D" can't see beyond 3D graphics. Did you guys see the opening hour stampede to the Nintendo booth to try the Wiimote at E3 06? Did you guys see the 4 hour waits just to try the Wiimote at the same event?

Don't make too much of it - a year or two before that there were huge queues at E3 for the id booth, where Doom 3 was demonstrated behind closed doors.