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Sorry mate, but I dont think you're getting the point. The single most popular 360 SKU is Pro. Not sure why you narrowed it down to the two most popular SKU's. That makes no sense. In any case, you have repeatedly stressed how good it is that MS has the price advantage over the PS3. I say good for them, but even though there are two 360 SKU's in the US that are cheaper than the PS3, the PS3 has still outsold the 360 in 2008, in all but one month, albeit by relatively small margins. In the UK, all three 360 SKU's are cheaper than the PS3, but Chart Track seem to suggest that the PS3 is still outselling the 360 in the UK and continental Europe also.
The fact that GTA 4 only sold 56% of its units on the 360 in its first week is telling. It would suggest that the installed base in the UK, of the 360 and the PS3 has narrowed. Either that or PS3 owners like GTA 4 way more than 360 owners.
As far as the US goes, IMO Sony has the stronger line-up IMO, because I would expect R2, SOCOM, LBP, Wipeout HD and Motorstorm to all do well there. KZ2 should also clean up in February, partly because of hype, and partly because it will pretty much have this period to itself.
In any case, it will be pretty vital that MS does well this winter, but they way its going, I think parity with the PS3 may be the best they can hope for. Time will tell.
But you neglect to mention that the xbox 360 is indeed more expensive . Also I never said how it important it is now for ms to have the price advantage because I feel that they don't have it currently , the 60 gig helps but it still too expensive. If the rumored price drops are correct then I believe ms will have the price advantage akin to last year with a $100 buffer between the pro and ps3 and the elite with its bigger hardrive will be at price parity.
Your comment about the exlusives are just your opinion . I can state the same thing but replace those with Gears 2 , Fable , Viva pinata , Banjoo kazooe , Left 4 dead , Tales of Vesperia , Infinite Undiscovery , and others .
Once again you saying its vital that ms does well this winter and I have to say its vital for sony to do well and here in the states at least to me have the weaker line up. The 360 has a little something for everyone . But its my opinion and you know what they say about opinions.
I think you've totally missed my point.
My point is that changing from 40 GB to 80 GB is probably not a "price cut" decision
but rather a "We want to scrap the 40 GB model production line and change it into a larger capacity model since it makes more sense.
While we are at it, since the 80GB one that we are going to still manufacture costs essentially the same, why don't you put the larger harddrive in it and everyone can be happy." decision made by the manufacturers.
Using the 80 GB harddrives makes so much much more sense than the 40 GB ones since 40 GB platters are most probably not used in any other model, but 80 GB platters are probably used in a variety of models.
And you miss mine , when a consumer can walk into a store and buy a system with an 80 gig hardrive for the same price as a 40 gig the week or month before that is a price cut. Its most likely exactly what you describe above for the company , however that doesn't matter to the consumer.
Its not telling. Its probably the result of how T2 distributed the software with 55 % being 360 skus and 45% being PS3 skus and basically the game selling out. Looking at the overall sales to date will give you a clearer picture.
Acording to vgchartz gta4 360 is at 5.82m and ps3 is at 4.3m. However gta4 has another chance at selling big again when the DLC hits the 360.
all likelihood Gears of War2 will probably outsell any one of those titles and Fable 2 (mostly due to the userbase advantage and the fact it was a marque xbox title) will probably do better than most . Over the holidays its the third party multiplat titles like Star Wars Force Unleashed, Lego Batman, COD5 and Fallout 3 that are probably going to kill in overall sales.
Gears 1 is at 5.21m and is still not a greatest hits title , it just droped to $40 last month.
Yup I have no doubts that GOW2 will sell well, and never said otherwise. The important fact you ignored is what impact this has on hardware. Still, we cant discuss this here without upsetting certain people .
Its a november title so its hard to see exactly what effect it has on consumers. However it has a large mind share and is ap roven title. It will bring in more gamers and casuals.
I find it insane that people think gears wont bring in gamers , but what about most of the ps3 titles released this holdiay. Everyone who wants to play Resistance 2 already has a ps3 because of resistance 2..... isn't that the saying used for halo 3 and other ms titles?
Vic you can't post about the situation as you see it wrt 360 vs PS3 this holiday season, based on a number of software titles you listed, and then when someone lists 360 software titles decide that we don't have insights into what the effects will be on hardware and that we shouldn't be talking about this anyway. It's something of a double-standard.
Your exactly right. The fact is both have strong line ups but it seems to me that the 360 is actually more diverse . For instance where are the JRPGs this holdiay season on the ps3 ? MS has a bunch of party games aside from the big exclusives i keep listing and they also have Viva pinata 2 and Banjo priced at $40 which will drive a few people to buy a xbox 360
Do you have a source for the 5 million seller? What I found has GoW as 2 million by middle of december, 3 million by middle of January 2007. No doubt it continued to sell, but for 2006 it was 3 million. I don't think it'll do that much better than that, not in 2 months. Considering the increased PS3 and Wii marketshare, I even have my doubts whether any exclusive not on the Wii will show up in the top 10 this year. GeoW2 is the one exception (barring a total LBP shock) and even then I don't think they'll place too well.
Oh it wil do that much faster. I wouldn't be surprised if first month sales are 3m. The xbox 360 install based has most likely double in the states since holdiay 2006.
As for marketing dollars... well, we'll see. Excluding multiplatform games, because I have no idea how heavily Activision will push Guitar Hero, I'm seeing LBP being pushed more than GeoW2. But that stands to reason: most people who want GeoW2 know about it already, so they don't have to fight as hard for awareness. LBP, meanwhile, has to find its audience.
Oh I expect a halo 3 level marketing campain for Gears 2. This will be their big title of the year and they will use it to hype the 360 and to push the system into its own section in peoples mind. Then I expect them to do some pushing with viva and banjo .
On a side note what I'd really like to see from ms is them add 2 games to their sytstem skus . They should really just bundle kameo and Pdz into each system sold. These titles are most likely done selling but it would be a smart thing to do right after these holidays. The titles are done making money for ms but they are good titles and a value add to the system.
