NPD May 2008

Not to brag or anything, but I have actually been saying this for years.

I remember back in the Gamecube days, so many message board fanboys kept predicting GC to take off as soon as next big game X (Mario Sunshine, Smash Bros, Starfox, Zelda, Mario Kart, etc) came out. Then when that game came out and little changed, it was always "well, just wait for next big game x!" Never happened, and eventually the GC faded away. That is when I learned..big games dont effect hardware sales.

Of course they do, without those "big games" the Gamecube would have been hurting even more. Every big game helps, every big game that people wants to play that is.
 
It's not a true/false situation, but depends on various factors. Look how PSP has suddenly jumped to premiere position in Japan thanks to a few major titles! I've repeatedly said single games don't sell consoles on their own, but as -tkf- points out, they're part of the whole package. A console without big titles will sell zip, unless it's managing on gimmick alone. eg. If Wii only sold on the strength of WiiSports, no other games would be being sold and eventually the platform would die. That's not what's happeneing. WiiSports was the hook, but the platform is kept alive by fresh, attractive content. Same for the other machines. If there wasn't a constant flow of quality software, the hardware will fizzle out. And when a bug title does manifest itself, sometimes it has a huge impact (Halo, anyone? Where would XB be without that one title?) and sometimes it doesn't.
 
I think the hook for PS3 was and still is BluRay. Resistance, ratcht and clank, Lair, Heavenly Sword, MotorStorm, and Uncharted were all "big" titles that both Sony and and platform supporters said would a) show the superiority of the platform and thus b) blow PS3 sales past X360... Of course there was also the 3 year wait for games like MGS, and GT5 that also played a part for some people ...
 
MGS4 has managed to blow PS3 past XB360 sales, for one week at least ;) Again though, people can't predict big games. You never know what's gonna be the next Big Thing. All these titles are just possibilities, and as long as there are more options coming out, one of them may be a big motivator. But of course only a plus point in the general consideration. There's always the price-point and rest of library etc. to consider.
 
It is definitely a situational thing. A couple of things I've seen in the news recently about Japan sales say that MGS is indeed moving consoles there. I think it went from around 10k to 77k PS3s sold the first week it was out. Just that week alone counted for almost 2 "summer" months worth of normal sales without MGS. If it maintains that for only 2-3 weeks, then it added nearly 18 "summer" months worth of console sales. That is impressive. If it held for an entire month it would take the Japanese market from ~40k sold in a month to ~300k sold in a month. So only holding for 1 month that increase in sales would result in over 200k units. That is moving systems any way you look at it.

On the software side of things, I believe MGS was ~460k in Japan this last week. For reference, Wii Fit and Mario Kart Wii together managed about 80k. Those are really huge numbers - even if the trend only lasts 1 week.

If you had 2-3 of these games a year, it would definitely count as a good portion of your overall console sales for a generation. It is of course not the only factor in consoles selling, but it definitely does play a part.
 
On the software side of things, I believe MGS was ~460k in Japan this last week. For reference, Wii Fit and Mario Kart Wii together managed about 80k. Those are really huge numbers - even if the trend only lasts 1 week.

You must not follow sales much. Weekly game sales typically look like an exponential decay. Mariokart Wii has been out for a while, so comparing its week 10 sales to MGS4's week 1 sales is silly. MKW sold 580K its first week in Japan.
 
You must not follow sales much. Weekly game sales typically look like an exponential decay. Mariokart Wii has been out for a while, so comparing its week 10 sales to MGS4's week 1 sales is silly. MKW sold 580K its first week in Japan.

So MKW with a 3x greater Wii install base sold 580k to MGS's 460k, I'd say MGS did quite well in comparison then.
 
You must not follow sales much. Weekly game sales typically look like an exponential decay. Mariokart Wii has been out for a while, so comparing its week 10 sales to MGS4's week 1 sales is silly. MKW sold 580K its first week in Japan.

I am sorry, I think you misunderstood the reason for the inclusion of Mario Kart and Wii fit's sales. Let me explain.

To get to my point, answer a couple of questions:

1) Do you think an increase of 7 times the number of systems in one week was a fluke caused by some random sale or can we attribute it to MGS4?

2) If we can attribute it to MGS4, is it safe to say that MGS4 is selling consoles?

I know it will drop off, and am not claiming it is the herald of a new era of supreme dominance for Sony or anything of the sort. I was indicating that MGS4 is selling systems. As a matter of fact, this one game pushed mid-June sales into the holiday sales range - even if for only a couple of weeks. It is a good example of a game that sells consoles.

Now, I included the number 2 and number 3 software titles so you could compare how MGS did against other titles selling in this week. As I am sure you know, there is a large seasonal dependence on software sales, so you cannot compare week to week. Because of that, I was trying to give context for an individual week's worth of sales. I assume most people here already know about the software drop off and would realize that I chose the number 2 and 3 software titles - NOT that I picked titles on the Wii to try and do some sort of cross console or cross weekly comparison. They were to give context to the overall size of the game market this week in Japan for this week.

If I had done the same thing during Mario Kart's release, I would have chosen Monster Hunter Freedom for the PSP and Mosou Orochi Maou Sairin for the PS2 as context numbers. At the time, I am fairly certain most people would recognize those games as being in their 3rd and 2nd week respectively. So it does indicate that Mario Kart Wii was selling very well, commanding an impressive chunk of weekly sales all to itself even with stiff competition. For this week, Mario Kart and Wii Fit have been out for a while, meaning that MGS4 did not face stiff competition from new releases (although there were a couple of new titles in the last several weeks). This indicates that MGS4 got a lion's share of software sales for the week. At the same time, weekly software sales around that time hovered between about 1.5 million and 2 million, where at this point in the year they hover around 800k to 1 million. As these numbers fluctuate wildly, showing what titles are 2 and 3 and how much they sold indicates more about the overall market that week. That is why they were included.

I wanted to keep my post brief so tried to provide only context numbers that those who followed sales could interpret themselves. It was not an attack on the two games I mentioned or onto the other systems. At question here is whether or not a game can sell systems - not which system is selling more.
 
Once Shifty brought up Japan I believe the entire conversation moved to talking about Media Create numbers not NPD which I think is what Johnny Awesome is referring to, Japan, and its traditional massive sales for a week and then a big drop the next week.

From reading some of the media create threads on gaf, the reason is that there is no market for game rental there. So people buy games, finish them, and sell them back to the retailers fast while they still can get decent amount back. That's kinda like their version of rental. So unless a game has a lot of replay value, the new copies will have to compete with a lot of used copies.

It happens with hardware too if the hardware doesn't get a steady stream of good games. Like in the case of the 360, people would buy a 360 to play Blue Dragon for example, finish the game and sell the game and the x360 back.
 
From reading some of the media create threads on gaf, the reason is that there is no market for game rental there. So people buy games, finish them, and sell them back to the retailers fast while they still can get decent amount back. That's kinda like their version of rental. So unless a game has a lot of replay value, the new copies will have to compete with a lot of used copies.

It happens with hardware too if the hardware doesn't get a steady stream of good games. Like in the case of the 360, people would buy a 360 to play Blue Dragon for example, finish the game and sell the game and the x360 back.

So then a game in Japan with legs is good indicator that it's good as people are keeping it instead of selling it back?
 
From reading some of the media create threads on gaf, the reason is that there is no market for game rental there. So people buy games, finish them, and sell them back to the retailers fast while they still can get decent amount back. That's kinda like their version of rental. So unless a game has a lot of replay value, the new copies will have to compete with a lot of used copies.

It happens with hardware too if the hardware doesn't get a steady stream of good games. Like in the case of the 360, people would buy a 360 to play Blue Dragon for example, finish the game and sell the game and the x360 back.

I dont think theory is enough to explain japanese shopping habbits. apsecially not considering that most european countries doesn't have gamerentals (or its in very insignificant numbers) and here sales are usually related to marketing and how good the game is. If a game is selling mostly because its markedet alot it tains to do well the first month, then drop. If the game is selling because its marketed alot AND word of mouth is spreading that its great (CoD4) the game continues to sell forever and ever.
 
Once Shifty brought up Japan I believe the entire conversation moved to talking about Media Create numbers not NPD which I think is what Johnny Awesome is referring to, Japan, and its traditional massive sales for a week and then a big drop the next week.

Except Monster Hunter pushed the PSP to the top for a long time.
 
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