NPD May 2008

[RancidLunchmeat]

The question then becomes one of longevity. How much longer will there be demand for the 360 and the PS3 than for the Wii? And will whatever time period that is at the end of the generation compensate for the disparity in sales at the beginning?

It's certainly debatable. But as you mentioned, these consoles are a long way from $199-$149 price points. Two years away probably?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

And you can add to that when PS360 are mainstream prices, what will Nintendo have on the table? Do we really expect them to keep Wii to the end of this gen alongside PS360, or will they roll out something new and exciting before PS360 can reach their mainstream stride?

 

[Scott_Arm]

And you can add to that when PS360 are mainstream prices, what will Nintendo have on the table? Do we really expect them to keep Wii to the end of this gen alongside PS360, or will they roll out something new and exciting before PS360 can reach their mainstream stride?

Well, they should be able to aggressively price cut at some point. We may end up with the DS/GBA situation, where the next system overlaps for a considerable period of time.

 

[Tap In]

geez MS, drop the friggin price already... so i can get the 2nd system for the house

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

And you can add to that when PS360 are mainstream prices, what will Nintendo have on the table? Do we really expect them to keep Wii to the end of this gen alongside PS360, or will they roll out something new and exciting before PS360 can reach their mainstream stride?

I think we'd probably be expecting N to have something else on the table.

But accordingly, that new product wouldn't impact the Wii/360/PS3 sales comparisons.

 

[thatdude90210]

Top 20 software titles for the month. gamasutra

The Wii is doing to the HD consoles what the PS3 did to HDDVD... overwhelm them by simply having a faster growing install base. That's 8 Wii games to 4 total for the PS360 in the top 20.

1. Grand Theft Auto IV (Take 2, Xbox 360)
2. Mario Kart (Nintendo, Wii)
3. Wii Fit (Nintendo, Wii)
4. Grand Theft Auto IV (Take 2, PS3)
5. Wii Play (Nintendo, Wii)
6. Super Smash Bros. Brawl (Nintendo, Wii)
7. Iron Man (Sega, PS2)
8. Guitar Hero III (Activision, Wii)
9. Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Darkness (Nintendo, DS)
10. Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Time (Nintendo, DS)
11. Call of Duty 4 (Activision, 360)
12. Iron Man (Sega, PSP)
13. We Ski (Namco, Wii)
14. Mario Kart (Nintendo, DS)
15. New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo, DS)
16. God of War 2 (Sony, PS2)
17. Game Party (Midway, Wii)
18. Guitar Hero III (Activision, PS2)
19. Haze (Ubisoft, PS3)
20. Super Mario Galaxy (Nintendo, Wii)

Wii-8
DS- 3 (4 if you count Pokemon twice)
360-2
PS3-2
PS2-3
PSP-1

 

[Burgoo]

Top 20 software titles for the month.

19. Haze (Ubisoft, PS3)

So Haze managed to make the top 20 even though reviews were terrible for it. I wonder how many units it sold.

 

[patsu]

I know some retailers cut the price of Haze to $40-ish. That may have boosted sales.

 

[AlphaWolf]

10th place item moved 102k, so expect significantly less than that for Haze.

 

[Rangers]

What would you determine to be a nice bump? I am not so sure there are hundreds or tens of thousands of people with $500+ dollars tucked away, here in the US. I see all the great reviews, but I am not even sure MGS4 will reach hardware specific GTA4 numbers.

As for me, I will need to see if I can fit this game into my tiny gaming budget.

I think PS3 is going to win June NPD over 360 pretty easily. Software doesn't generally move a ton of hardware, but with MGS4 you've got bundles that have supposedly sold well that directly affect hardware, and also you have Wal Mart doing a $100 gift card with PS3 purchase promotion that should have an effect (though NPD doesn't cover Wal Mart directly).

I'd suspect a 60-70k bump for PS3.

 

[Rangers]

NPD doesn't track Walmart numbers. So what they have would be a guesstimate.

It would still be a guesstimate, but NPD has a panel of Wal Mart customers that they poll. So it's not based on nothing...

 

[Tap In]

11. Call of Duty 4 (Activision, 360)

wow and Halo 3 was supposed to be the ganme that everyone bought when they got a new 360... now it's coD4.

 

[patsu]

It would still be a guesstimate, but NPD has a panel of Wal Mart customers that they poll. So it's not based on nothing...

I wouldn't be surprise if the numbers are inaccurate because the sample size is small, and at no point in time did they compare with the real Walmart numbers to adjust their statistical model. Walmart never release their numbers to outsiders.

These numbers may be best to infer insights, rather than for accurate comparison.

This is why I usually avoid talking about hard numbers in sales thread.

 

[Tap In]

It would still be a guesstimate, but NPD has a panel of Wal Mart customers that they poll. So it's not based on nothing...

yea the NPD track wal-mart pretty danged accurately. these numbers are used to base all sorts of business decsisons on and they charge for their info. their methods are not like VGcratz

 

[patsu]

yea the NPD track wal-mart pretty danged accurately. these numbers are used to base all sorts of business decsisons on and they charge for their info. their methods are not like VGcratz

Depends on which market, how they do it and what you want to do with the numbers. They (NPD or VGCharts) may not be suitable. I dealt with these channel numbers for 2 years in a few markets.

But for forum discussions, I supposed it's ok. Just don't use them to hit the vendors (MS or Sony).

 

[patsu]

You mean others (I am more interested in what product the vendors will roll out). People use it to compare market share (because the same bad/good rules apply to all vendors), describe general trends, and gather insights. But in general, we don't use the absolute numbers. They are used as supporting evidence instead of definitive or authoritative sources (if you believe the numbers). The vendors have their own internal numbers for reference too.

For specific production, finance and marketing purposes, they may have their own VooDoo. In some mature markets (e.g., fast moving consumer goods), because of the sheer data volume and more stable consumption rate, they may be easier to estimate and forecast demand. For hi-tech/innovative products where demand may swing based on discrete events (e.g., whether X is a hit title), it is very difficult to do so. Note that even between individual stores, cities and states, there can be consumption variation.

 

[Cheezdoodles]

The real question is... what game will be the one to actually move systems in crazy numbers then? MGS4, Gears 2, FFXIII?

Gran Turismo 5.

Atleast in europe.

 

[Cheezdoodles]

NPD doesn't track Walmart numbers. So what they have would be a guesstimate.

What they do with walmart is use the average numbers for similar type stores, im sure the numbers are accurate enough for any forum discussion.

 

[Cryect]

Captain Smoker over at NeoGaf posted a nice compilation of all known numbers for (and ranges if exacts aren't known).

Multi Top20:
1. Grand Theft Auto IV* (Xbox 360) 871.300
2. Mario Kart (Wii) 787.400
3. Wii Fit (wii) 687.700
4. Grand Theft Auto IV* (PS3) 442.900
5. Wii Play w/ Remote (Wii) 294.600
6. Super Smash Bros. Brawl (Wii) 171.100
7. Iron Man (PS2) 130.600
8. Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (Wii) 116.800
9. Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Explorers of Darkness (NDS) 107.000
10. Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Explorers of Time (NDS) 102.000
11. Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare* (Xbox 360) 60.000 - 102.000
12. Iron Man (PSP) 60.000 - 102.000
13. We Ski (Wii) 60.000 - 102.000
14. Mario Kart (NDS) 60.000 - 102.000
15. New Super Mario Bros. (NDS) 60.000 - 102.000
16. God of War II (PS2) 60.000 - 102.000
17. Game Party (Wii) 60.000 - 102.000
18. Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock* (PS2) 60.000 - 102.000
19. Haze (PS3) 60.000 - 102.000
20. Super Mario Galaxy (Wii) 60.000 - 102.000
21.
22.
23.
24.
25. Boom Blox (Wii) 60.000

PS2:
1. Iron Man 130.600
2. God of War II 60.000 - 102.000
3. Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock* 60.000 - 102.000
4. Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas
5. Rock Band*
6. MLB '08: The Show
7. Naruto: Ultimate Ninja 3
8. Metal Gear Solid: Essential Collection
9. Grand Theft Auto: The Trilogy
10. Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 3

360:
1. Grand Theft Auto IV 871.300
2. Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare 60.000 - 102.000
3. Iron Man
4. Rock Band
5. Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock
6. Halo 3
7. Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Vegas 2
8. Major League Baseball 2K8
9. Army of Two
10. Saints Row

PS3:
1. Grand Theft Auto IV* 442.900
2. Haze 60.000 - 102.000
3. Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare*
4. Gran Turismo 5: Prologue
5. Iron Man
6. MLB '08: The Show
7. Rock Band*
8. Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock
9. Sonic the Hedgehog
10. Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Vegas 2*

Wii:
1. Mario Kart 787.400
2. Wii Fit 687.700
3. Wii Play w/ Remote 294.600
4. Super Smash Bros. Brawl 171.100
5. Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock 116.800
6. We Ski 60.000 - 102.000
7. Game Party 60.000 - 102.000
8. Super Mario Galaxy 60.000 - 102.000
9. Boom Blox 60.000
10. Carnival Games

GBA:
1. Pokemon Emerald
2. Action/Adventure Bundle
3. Candyland/Chutes/Memory
4. Pokemon Fire Red w/ Adaptor
5. Pokemon Leaf Green w/ Adaptor
6. Sonic the Hedgehog
7. Yahtzee/Payday/Game of Life
8. Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Red Rescue Team
9. Puppy Luv: Spa & Resort
10. Madagascar

NDS:
1. Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Explorers of Darkness 107.000
2. Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Explorers of Time 102.000
3. Mario Kart 60.000 - 102.000
4. New Super Mario Bros. 60.000 - 102.000
5. Crossword DS
6. Mario Party
7. Imagine: Babyz
8. Mario and Sonic: Olympic Games
9. Speed Racer
10. Brain Age 2: More Training in Minutes a Day

PSP:
1. Iron Man 60.000 - 102.000
2. Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII
3. God of War: Chains of Olympus
4. Grand Theft Auto: Vice City Stories
5. Grand Theft Auto: Liberty City Stories
6. MLB '08: The Show
7. Ratchet & Clank: Size Matters
8. Midnight Club 3: DUB Edition
9. Madden NFL 08
10. Tom CLancy's Rainbow Six: Vegas

 

[assen]

Wow, Haze at 60-102K. A lot of exclusive-loving fanboys out there.