NPD April 2007

[22psi]

Interesting chart, taken from GAF:

 

[thatdude90210]

Those lines, one is almost flat... I'm just saying.

Yesterday's quarterly results showed that Sony can't afford a price cut on the PS3. Yet at the same time, they can't afford not to.

As for the 360, I think $299 for the premium plus Halo 3 would be a good leadoff for the holidays. MS will probably just ride out the sub 200k to 200k months until then.

 

[RobertR1]

oh noes!!! even Sony's PR machine ran out of bullshit for once

http://blog.wired.com/games/2007/05/sonys_response_.html

"According to the latest NPD data, SCEA generated total sales of $271 million in the month of April, buoyed in part by the addition of the PS3 platform, which sold a total of 82K units for the month, as well as the strong performance of the PSP at retail, which saw a 13% year-on-year increase for the month of April, selling 183K units. The price of the PSP Core system was dropped from $199 to $169 in early April, which has received very positive retailer and consumer response. PS2 also continued to be a strong performer during the month with unit sales of 194K."

 

[Tap In]

I predicted 8-10 million WW at the $499- $599 price point for PS3 prior to launch.

that's not gonna happen.

Ms will probably ride Halo at $399 until about November 15th and then DROP for the holiday rush.

 

[Rangers]

They're already down 20% for the last 2 months in a row. MS has consistently sold 50k/week in nearly every month since launch (and holidays of course). The pool is clearly drying up.

Of course, they can both go into a stalemate and watch eachothers sales dwindle, and watch Wii dance off into the sunset, which might just happen.

MS does have a fairly good 'supposed' summer lineup to maybe pull it through, but virtually nothing is confirmed other than BD and Bioshock. PS3 has lair and that's about all, so it's summer #'s are gonna be pretty horrendous without a pricedrop as the pool of $600 console owners dries up even more.

Scooby, one thing is that March was a 5 week NPD. April 4. So in weekly sales, 360 saw a small increase from ~40k (~200k/5) in march to ~44k in April (177k/4).

However, that's still not very impressive because I think the Elite spurred sales considerably for the week it was out. It'll be interesting once the Elite normalizes, which we probably wont really see until June.

I've been of the opinion that Wii does/will NOT cannibalize 360 sales. I still think that. However, the strength of Wii is becoming enough to make me begin to ponder the possibility.

On some forums, they are decrying the death of 360/PS3 and declaring victory for Wii.

BTW, I hate to pile on the PS3 but now when combine Japan and the USA weekly sales, 360 is now winning commandingly. For example this past month, PS3=40k Japan+80k=120, 360=~190k between the two territories. Of course, the Wii is at ~650+k.

BTW, weekly hardware numbers from vgchartz for week ending the 13th, which if you look here are said to be becoming increasingly accurate, it looks like 360 could have a decent month of May ahead. He's also got the DS tracking to nearly 700k this month! Granted it would be more like 600 in NPD since he includes Canada.

 

[Pozer]

What I find interesting is how well the 360 multiplatform titles continually outsell or match the other skus even with a 10x install base. Who is buying all these ps2's and what are they playing on them? Almost guarantees the 360 will be the lead development platform this gen. Which will hurt the ps3 even more in the long run.

I think MS would do well to drop the 360 $100 in August whether 65nm is ready or not.

 

[Carl B]

Natoma sorry, but the animated GIFs had to go. You found 'em on GAF, leave 'em on GAF. I think that should be a general rule about everything honestly...

Anyway some of the opinions going down here make me wonder where everyone's been - like Pozer, 360 is already the lead platform for multiconsole development, and Jacob - devs out and out stop supporting the system? Uh... yeah, it's not that much trouble to port these games.

As for this price drop talk - MS has no need of them until after the whole Halo 3 thing has already blown over. Or do we think they'll have trouble selling consoles during that launch at the 'high' price of $399 (or whatever we're saying these days)? No they won't, they'll do just fine. After that they can drop it down to boost sales later or whatever, but the games alone will drive sales in the nearterm.

 

[Rangers]

Natoma sorry, but the animated GIFs had to go. You found 'em on GAF, leave 'em on GAF. I think that should be a general rule about everything honestly...

Anyway some of the opinions going down here make me wonder where everyone's been - like Pozer, 360 is already the lead platform for multiconsole development, and Jacob - devs out and out stop supporting the system? Uh... yeah, it's not that much trouble to port these games.

As for this price drop talk - MS has no need of them until after the whole Halo 3 thing has already blown over. Or do we think they'll have trouble selling consoles during that launch at the 'high' price of $399 (or whatever we're saying these days)? No they won't, they'll do just fine. After that they can drop it down to boost sales later or whatever, but the games alone will drive sales in the nearterm.

I disagree. Not much has proven to shift tons of 360 consoles, Lots of "big" games have released on the system and sold well as a matter of course but the hardware meanders along.

If you're saying, price drop in Nov, that may be debatable..but if you're meaning "Halo 3 blows over" as spring 08..I cant go for that logic.

I'm really sure it will be fall/winter, some point in there. MS has basically said they'll respond to competitor price drops, and PS3 will drop in fall/winter. Also, I know according to articles at least one of the 360 chips (if not both, I dont know) will be going 65nm right at that time, it works out perfectly. It's rather amazing how long ms has held off a drop already.

 

[PatrickL]

There is little reason to buy a 360 before the price drop along a version 2 if more reliable. If you are not an Halo fan of course

 

[Nesh]

oh noes!!! even Sony's PR machine ran out of bullshit for once

http://blog.wired.com/games/2007/05/sonys_response_.html

"According to the latest NPD data, SCEA generated total sales of $271 million in the month of April, buoyed in part by the addition of the PS3 platform, which sold a total of 82K units for the month, as well as the strong performance of the PSP at retail, which saw a 13% year-on-year increase for the month of April, selling 183K units. The price of the PSP Core system was dropped from $199 to $169 in early April, which has received very positive retailer and consumer response. PS2 also continued to be a strong performer during the month with unit sales of 194K."

BS PR is the least thing you d want to do when you want to offer information of your company's performance to stockholders. Transparency is a given.

 

[patsu]

They have gone quite far to maintain the current price level. My guess is Sony will wait for more PS3 games (and any other media functions) to be released to observe the sales trend for a few more months.

 

[infinity4]

Nintendo had brand power last generation? Last I heard N64 was out sold by Playstation and the cartridges did more than enough to hurt that image. Going into last generation Sony was far and away the brand power leader. Heading into this generation Sony was still number one, but a little game called Halo put a small trinket in the back of everyones mind... and none of that matters!

Seriously, if anything this early new generation is teaching us that product image is far more important than brand power. Just because you have a Playstation does not mean its going to be a success. Just because you released something called a Gamecube does not mean you're next product is going to fail also. Well, there is an exception, because your name is Microsoft you're always given a different outlook.

I seriously doubt for the future of the PS3. It started off far to expensive with no buy me titles. It lost a number of its big third party exclusives, etc. Its really hard to sell something when its expensive and there is no draw. Hell, the Xbox 360 is showing its hard to sell something when its not the most expensive and has better draw. But when you're cheap, new, and not like everyone else you're rewarded.

Oh how I'd love to sit in on the meetings for the next Xbox and Playstation.

i was saying all the way from 4th generation

 

[pipo]

Ms will probably ride Halo at $399 until about November 15th and then DROP for the holiday rush.

Agreed. But I wouldn't be surprised if Sony would drop sooner and forces MS to respond.

Not sure what happens with the PS3 @ 499 by the way. I have a feeling it would be launch all over again. A spike followed by, err, not a lot...

They need a 449 price point at the very least I'm afraid.

 

[Rolf N]

It's kinda neat how Sony schedules big PR events to coincide with NPD releases, ain't it?
We had the Home and Little Big Planet announcements within days of the March NPD release. This month we have a freakin' lot of good stuff one day before an NPD release. I really don't think this is all coincidence.

Bad Sony. Get cracking and finish those games up for release. Teasing is good for a while, but it's becoming transparent. The "supply constrained" sound-bite last month was such a farce, I'm glad the PR response has been dialed back to mere selective information.

I had expected a somewhat bigger bump due to the Xbox 360 Elite, pent up demand of fence-sitters and trade-ups, but it's pretty hard to read the trends in actual market size with these numbers, to come up with reasonable expectations. The supply constraints of the Nintendo systems versus the saturated PS2 market really mess that up. The only thing that is certain now is that the PS3 has underperformed, and the grins on the faces of certain Nintendo execs won't fit into your living room anymore.

 

[PatrickL]

Not sure they made the right decision. NPD numbers + MC numbers are destroying the positive they had with the gamer days.

 

[-tkf-]

$399 incomming, i guess they will have to do it before the slimmed down cheaper 65nm version is rdy to ship. But i don´t think they will do it before they have games out worth buying. Or it would just make them look bad.. worse

 

[Rolf N]

Li'l chart with the market trends since December.

 units (NPD)  Dec-2006  diff  Jan-2007   diff  Feb-2007   diff  Mar-2007   diff  Apr-2007
Nintendo DS  1,598,593  -85%   238,869  +103%   485,149  +4.7%   508,000  -7.2%   471,000
PS2          1,394,007  -79%   299,352  -1.5%   295,102  -5.1%   280,000   -31%   194,000
PS3            490,682  -50%   243,554   -48%   127,321  +2.1%   130,000   -37%    82,000
PSP            953,182  -78%   210,719   -17%   175,651  +2.5%   180,000  +1.7%   183,000
Wii            604,170  -28%   435,503   -23%   335,324   -23%   259,000   +39%   360,000
Xbox 360     1,131,886  -74%   293,774   -22%   228,225   -13%   199,000   -13%   174,000

total units  6,172,520  -72% 1,721,771  -4.4% 1,646,772  -5.5% 1,556,000  -5.9% 1,464,000

HW dollars*   Dec-2006  diff  Jan-2007   diff  Feb-2007   diff  Mar-2007   diff  Apr-2007
total         1437.2M   -67%    471.2M   -20%    379.2M    -7%    352.6M  -7.5%   326.3M

*consumer money spent, not cost, not revenue; console package only; assumes 130$ for DS, 130$ for PS2, 575$ avg. for PS3, 200$ for PSP, 250$ for Wii, 375$ avg for Xbox 360. From April: 170$ for PSP (pricedrop); 600$ for PS3 (EOA for 20GB SKU); 400$ avg for Xbox 360 (introduction of Elite SKU).

Again, I have the dollar values broken down by system if anyone is interested, but it usually doesn't go down well with the audience, so I'm not posting it for now. Dollar totals and unit totals are for evaluating seasonal market size fluctuations.

edit: the real wtf is not that the PS3 has dipped below 100k, but that it has dipped below half the XBox 360's sales. Games, Phil. Games. Now.

 

[22psi]

If MS keeps pricing the way it is until November, sales will get a nice bump from Halo 3/GTA/etc but not a huge jump. I think they will ride it out because their targets are set on Sony at this time. Sony is the bigger threat to them.

 

[Carl B]

Well, if you listen to the MS language lately... I think they're being pressured to consider the Wii and the overall market rather than just the PS3. I agree that the PS3 is a more natural foe, but recent comments out of Microsoft have turned into insulting the Wii where once they treated it like a benign symbiote.

I mean I think they're going to ride it out too, as they've got to reach their own profitability goals and Sony is seemingly adrift for now in "threat level." But it's interesting to see that MS has begun to posture themselves a little against the Wii recently... which I don't think is honestly a worthwhile effort.

 

[22psi]

Well, if you listen to the MS language lately... I think they're being pressured to consider the Wii and the overall market rather than just the PS3. I agree that the PS3 is a more natural foe, but recent comments out of Microsoft have turned into insulting the Wii where once they treated it like a benign symbiote.

I mean I think they're going to ride it out too, as they've got to reach their own profitability goals and Sony is seemingly adrift for now in "threat level." But it's interesting to see that MS has begun to posture themselves a little against the Wii recently... which I don't think is honestly a worthwhile effort.

I think they have to start planning ahead thus they are starting to expand their scope and if they can snab the PS3 then they'll have to go for the Wii. But that's still a ways off. They've done a good job so far as to grabbing once exclusive franchises, getting a few million units head start, positioning themselves very well for this fall.