Microsoft announces external HD-DVD drive for Xbox 360

[AlphaWolf]

DVD prices here already range from $5 to $50. And you can get good movies for a low price, too; for example I've got Amelie and City of Lost Children recently at a petrol station and at a supermarket. I also wouldn't have considered to buy them at $50, and I wouldn't need to have them in HD, ever. I dunno about the US, but I expect most of the DVD sales to be driven by such purchases...

Speaking for myself I would say 80% of my collection (hundreds of movies) is bargain purchases. The other 20% are either AAA titles or gifts.

As for prices I don't see anything quite that high in price unless you count TV seasons. Special Edition Collectors sets are usually in the $30-35 cdn price range.

 

[ihamoitc2005]

next-gen

I agree with the first part partially; but this is only true for PS3. X360 owners won't get a HD-drive automatically, so there it'll be the other way around - only those who want HD movies are going buy the drive the first place. But the price difference is, AFAIK, still unknown; and we're back to the original argument now, how many people are going to buy and how many movies, and why...

I wasnt really talking of PS3 or Xbox360, but any next-gen format player owned by public. Who will buy is probably any PS3 buyer who also buys movies (some will never buy movies, only games), nearly everyone who paid for next-gen format player (stand-alone or accessory) and thousands of video rental companies. PS3 will have high sales rate so next gen format player will also have high sales rate (included in PS3) but also after PS3 is sold standalone next gen format player consumer price will reduce and it will be sold in Best Buy, Walmart and other normal consumer stores so then next-gen format player sales will be even higher. But standalone player will not have super high sales until 2007/2008 when everyone can afford HDTV.

 

[Sis]

Another reason (outside of the consume realm) for a new format is shuffling around who gets the royalties, and to spur sales increases because of the "new shiny stuff" excitement, as well as pushing HDTV sales (which, no surprise, the main backers of these new formats are sellers of HDTVs as well).

I digress...

Actually, the bolded part I believe is the primary motivator for movie studios and CE manufacturers. The problem with DVD is multifacted: a) market saturation b) minimal profit on players c) TV Shows on DVD--the latest cash cow to be milked dry--is about out of compelling programs.

Given this, the studios and CE manufacturers desperately need this transition, which is why CES was obviously all a'buzz with the new tech. This does not mean that consumers desperately need this.

ERP's story is very similar to one I had that I related here before. My father has a hi-def set and was watching football from a standard def feed, stretched, and he turned to me and said, "Isn't that picture great! That's hi-def!" (or something to that effect).

Stores will be forced to have side by side displays just to convince people that the DVDs they play at home on their HD sets don't look as great as the consumer actually thinks it does.

.Sis

 

[Nicked]

Yes i agree here but then i'm not sure where discussing the same point. The main idea is that for people with large DVD collections, this launch is much less compelling becuase we/they may feel they already ahve those movies on a ;comparable' format. People didnt feel that way with DVD, it was clearly superior.

Oh come on. "Comparable" to a blind person maybe. You have a HDTV I assume, ERP has a HDTV. So you guys should know the disparity in quality. You may be happy with the quality of DVDs, but the jump is enormous to 1080i/p. And I think the majority of people, once they've experienced that jump, won't be wanting to go back to 480p. Especially if its just +-$10 more for a high-def movie than current.

People won't necessarily upgrade their old movies, except the classics of course, but I think you will be surprised at the uptake of these formats.
Especially Blu-ray since the PS3 factor is big regardless of whether you would agree or not. A playerbase of 15M in 3 years in the US...if 25% have a HDTV, assuming most want high-def content and some others will buy content for a future upgrade (and they can play it at 480p on their TV anyway), that market penetration is ENORMOUS compared to DVDs in a similar period.

Facts:

 It took 4 years for DVD to launch in all major countries.
   *  1997
          o 349,000 DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (About 200,000 sold into homes.)
          o 900 DVD-Video titles available in the U.S. Over 5 million copies shipped; about 2 million sold.
          o Over 500,000 DVD-Video players shipped worldwide.
          o Around 330,000 DVD-ROM drives shipped worldwide with about 1 million bundled DVD-ROM titles.
          o 60 DVD-ROM titles (mostly bundled).
    * 1998
          o 1,089,000 DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (Installed base of 1,438,000.)
          o 400 DVD-Video titles in Europe (135 movie and music titles).
          o 3,000 DVD-Video titles in the U.S. (2000 movie and music titles).
          o 7.2 million DVD-Video discs purchased.
    * 1999
          o 4,019,000 DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (Installed base of 5,457,000.)
          o Over 6,300 DVD-Video titles in the U.S.
          o About 26 million DVD-ROM drives worldwide.
          o About 75 DVD-ROM titles available in the U.S.
    * 2000
          o 8.5 million DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (Installed base of 13,922,000.)
          o About 46 million DVD-ROM drives worldwide.
          o Over 10,000 DVD-Video titles available in the U.S.
          o Belgium: 100 thousand installed base
          o France: 1.2 million installed base
          o Germany: 1.2 million installed base
          o Italy: 360 thousand installed base
          o Netherlands: 200 thousand installed base
          o Spain: 300 thousand installed base
          o Sweden: 120 thousand installed base
          o Switzerland: 250 thousand installed base
          o UK: 1 million installed base
    * 2001
          o 12.7 million DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (Installed base of 26,629,000.)
          o Over 45 million DVD-ROM drives in the U.S.
          o Over 90 million DVD-ROM drives worldwide.
          o UK: 3 million installed base
    * 2002
          o 17 million DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (Installed base of 43,718,000.)
          o Over 75 million DVD-ROM drives in the U.S.
          o Over 140 million DVD-ROM drives worldwide.
    * 2003 (fall)
          o 16 million DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (Installed base of 73,300,000.)
          o Over 27,000 DVD-Video titles available in the U.S.

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/officialfaq.html

As you can see, the PS3 is going to decimate the relative DVD install base. Will people actually buy BRDs? Who knows, but the hardware is going to be out there at an unprecedented level, without even including BR players.

 

[AlphaWolf]

heh the sales numbers there don't jive with the installed base.

 

[Sis]

You are right on the mark, Bobbler!

Unfortunately, I anticipate the opposition here will simply go on with their debunked arguments as if you had never even said it. It doesn't matter how many times their arguments are debunked (because this topic is surely not the first time they have played these arguments), they bring them up anew in every new discussion.

What arguments have been debunked? We're talking opinions of market conditions and market acceptance criteria of a new product.

I was an early adopter of DVD (forced into it after my beloved Silence of the lambs on VHS stopped playing properly...actually, ironically in the 8 or 9 years since I bought a DVD player because of that I've yet to actually replace it -- maybe I'll get it on Blu-ray! )

Seriously, I used to think the HD disc format would be a failure as an unwanted consumer product but mckmas and others have me somewhat convinced that the PS3 has a nice "try before you buy" mechanism that will let millions of people sample it effectively for free. If the movies themselves are priced roughly inline with DVDs (and UMD prices lead me to think not) then it could be a bigger success than I had earlier anticipated.

.Sis

 

[Nicked]

heh the sales numbers there don't jive with the installed base.

?What do you mean?

In later years PS3 won't match the DVD player sales but for the first years it will blaze ahead.

If the movies themselves are priced roughly inline with DVDs (and UMD prices lead me to think not) then it could be a bigger success than I had earlier anticipated.

One of the biggest reasons for the switch to next-gen media is that margins on DVDs are too low. They dropped price too much, too soon.

 

[Sis]

Oh come on. "Comparable" to a blind person maybe. You have a HDTV I assume, ERP has a HDTV.

"Comparable" within a person's visual memory--which is why a side by side comparison is necessary (and why I've argued a similar view about the Xbox 360's graphics being a significant jump yet many would argue that many games on it are not).

And I think the majority of people, once they've experienced that jump, won't be wanting to go back to 480p. Especially if its just +-$10 more for a high-def movie than current.

Actually, this is the view I'm slowly coming around to, though I disagree with your price disparity. It needs to be within 10% of DVD prices, anything more feels like too high a cost. But the PS3 has the ability to show people what HD offers, effectively for free, and may be the "ace in the hole", so to speak, for a hi-def disc format.

.Sis

 

[AlphaWolf]

?What do you mean?

in 2003 16m players shipped, but the installed base increased by 30 million.

 

[Sis]

One of the biggest reasons for the switch to next-gen media is that margins on DVDs are too low. They dropped price too much, too soon.

Actually, that was my exact point to Bobbler's post And add in the lack of new "old" content to release on DVD and the studios quickly realize that the only way to keep the sales growth is to get people to re-purchase content they already own and the CE manufacturers are only more than willing to help.

.Sis

 

[AlphaWolf]

One of the biggest reasons for the switch to next-gen media is that margins on DVDs are too low. They dropped price too much, too soon.

What do you think is the manufacturing cost of a DVD? I'd guess the margins are huge myself.

The reason they want a new format is that sales are no longer increasing, not because DVD sales aren't profitable.

 

[ihamoitc2005]

Margins

?
One of the biggest reasons for the switch to next-gen media is that margins on DVDs are too low. They dropped price too much, too soon.

I do not think margins are too low my friend. I think movie studios have profits from DVDs. This is why some movies are "made for DVD".

 

[expletive]

Oh come on. "Comparable" to a blind person maybe. You have a HDTV I assume, ERP has a HDTV. So you guys should know the disparity in quality. You may be happy with the quality of DVDs, but the jump is enormous to 1080i/p. And I think the majority of people, once they've experienced that jump, won't be wanting to go back to 480p. Especially if its just +-$10 more for a high-def movie than current.

As you can see, the PS3 is going to decimate the relative DVD install base. Will people actually buy BRDs? Who knows, but the hardware is going to be out there at an unprecedented level, without even including BR players.

Yes i have an HDTV and 110" HD projection setup but to be honest the difference between DVDs and HD of film material is not as stark as it is with HD sporting events or the video-based material like PIxar, etc.

Film material has that inherent "soft and grainy" look which doesnt lend itself as well to HD.

I think the 'multifunction' installed base for BR on the PS3 will have to decimate DVD for success becuase i dont think every installed PS3 = to an installed DVD player like you show here. Not sure what the 'equivalent' # its somewhere equal to or less than 3:1.

One more thing to realize is that as DVD installed base grew it had no competition whatsoever, which wont be the base for BR until HD-DVD is officially prnounced dead. Who knows how long that will be but you can be sure MS will keep that format on life support for as long as possible.

 

[randycat99]

When the players reach $150 or less then we can have that discussion. Until then it will be an uphill battle for these formats based on everything ive said(and others).

Well, if you prescribe to Scooby's theory, that time should be in less than about 12 mos from now.

As for the PS3, well thats the other half of the discussion (actually the real discussion) as to whether or not ican drive this format and how many "PS3 users" it takes to = 1 "stand alone player user" in terms of BR movie sales. My guess is at LEAST 3 ps3 users to equal 1 stand alone user in terms of movie sales.

It will be 1:1 (and 100x greater in units sold than standalone sales, as well). They have the PS3. It will play a BR, regardless of what TV it is hooked up to (albeit, at lesser resolution if it isn't via hdmi). Nonetheless, they have a player to play it. Marketing alone will ensure that the perceived image quality is "better" than mere DVD. If they truly are a "video collector", they certainly aren't going to waste their time buying new movies in a technically inferior format (DVD). That is the inherent nature of the "collector". They want the best specimen available of the desired prize.

 

[expletive]

Well, if you prescribe to Scooby's theory, that time should be in less than about 12 mos from now.

I dont.

It will be 1:1. They have the PS3. It will play a BR, regardless of what TV it is hooked up to (albeit, at lesser resolution if it isn't via hdmi). Nonetheless, they have a player to play it. Marketing alone will ensure that the perceived image quality is "better" than mere DVD.

It will be 1:1 installed but not 1:1 in terms of software sales. A person who buys a stand alone player, especially for a premium early on, is DEFINITELY going to be a consumer of movies. The kid who drops $400 on a PS3 in college or gets a PS3 in his bedroom or the TV in the rec room are probably NOT going to be consumers of BR movies. So in that case, which is what i meant, a PS3 owner is not a 1:1 installed user when youre talking abotu what matters, software sales.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

The reason they want a new format is that sales are no longer increasing, not because DVD sales aren't profitable.

Box office income is dropping heavily as well.
2003 had 21 movies with over 200 million worldwide, and 4 above 500 million.
2004 had 24 above 200 million and 7 above 500.
2005 had only 16 over 200 million and 4 above 500. It was worse than 2003, not just 2004.

Now I don't know about DVD sales for new movies, but there are two possibilities... People either decide to spend their money on the DVD, instead of going into the theatre multiple times; or they don't care as much about the new movies at all, because they're getting worse and worse...

 

[randycat99]

It will be 1:1 installed but not 1:1 in terms of software sales.

There's no reason it won't be, either. They got a player to play it. It's the next format to dominate, anyway. Might as well... You might be surprised to find that tech-addicted college kid just might have a little HDTV panel in their room, anyway (if not that, an LCD panel for their computer, at that). 1:1 means 1:1, hardware or software (and 100x greater in hardware units sold, altogether).

BR is a slamdunk. It's HD-DVD that really has to worry about being DOA. It's going to be going up against BR and DVD with only early adopter hardware support. That's just not looking good...

 

[Sis]

Box office income is dropping heavily as well.
2003 had 21 movies with over 200 million worldwide, and 4 above 500 million.
2004 had 24 above 200 million and 7 above 500.
2005 had only 16 over 200 million and 4 above 500. It was worse than 2003, not just 2004.

Now I don't know about DVD sales for new movies, but there are two possibilities... People either decide to spend their money on the DVD, instead of going into the theatre multiple times; or they don't care as much about the new movies at all, because they're getting worse and worse...

It's a bit telling that the DVDs I spend most my money on these days are TV series from HBO or the rare good ones on broadcast TV like Lost or Arrested Development.

I blame CG for Hollywood's downslide. There is just no magic in watching a movie where the action sequences have as much impact as an animated feature.

.Sis

 

[Sis]

BR is a slamdunk.

Did you mean, "of the two HD formats, BR should be a slamdunk? " Or, "because of the PS3, BR should be at least a moderate success?"

Because otherwise what you say amounts to this: "Have faith all ye non-believers! The Playstation 3 will save the insufferables! HD is upon us all and damned are those who have forsaken the HD disc format! Repent! Repent and also re-purchase! Re-purchase your entire DVD catalog!"

.Sis

PS Obviously a big

 

[expletive]

There's no reason it won't be, either. They got a player to play it. It's the next format to dominate, anyway. Might as well... You might be surprised to find that tech-addicted college kid just might have a little HDTV panel in their room, anyway (if not that, an LCD panel for their computer, at that). 1:1 means 1:1, hardware or software (and 100x greater in hardware units sold, altogether).

What youre saying is like saying the guy who buys a all-in-one printer, copier, scanner, fax, has jsut as much chance of faxing as the guy who buys a stand alone fax machine, or copying as the guy who buys a stand alone copier, its just not true. Theres a good chance the guy who buys the all-in-one never faxes with it or never copies with it.

Even if he does use it for everything, he also probably not using each function nearly as much as someone who bought the stand alone version of it.

We'll just have to agree to disagree here.