Microsoft announces external HD-DVD drive for Xbox 360

[expletive]

My guesses :
40 to 50 million. PS2 managed that I think.
25+% by the third year. Chances are most HDTV owners will be more likely to want PS3 because of it's HD abilities, and more willing ot pay the premium intial price. Alongside hardcore gamers, who normally are tech enthusiasts and I'd expect in the bracket of HDTV owners.
All of them if it's the only HD player they've got.
All of them when buying new material. If you own an HDTV and a PS3 that plays HD movies, and a new film you want is available on DVD and BRD, why not buy the format that looks a lot better?

If my random figures are anywhere near accurate, 10+ million BRD customers is quite a possibility. And 10 million UMD customers is enough to sell that format.

Just a couple of additional points to add to the equation here. You need to account for the fact that only a percentage of the 40-50 million care to watch HD movies (or movies at all) on their console(that menas the number of people that are BR people and not HD-DVD, DVD, VHS, cable because i already paid for it, On-demand, or Digtial downloaded users). So youre taking 25% of THAT number, not the whole 40-50 million.

Also, theres still no proof that the UMD format will expand well beyond what it is now, which is what it would need to do for its statistics to be relevant in this space. Yes the format can be 'carried' and is viable, but we're talking about replacement of the ubiquitous home move format outside of OTA or cable TV.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

And why would a PS3 owner that has a HDTV not buy a HD movie?

Because it's a lot more expensive than a DVD. Because he might already have paid a considerable amount of money to own a lot of movies on DVD. Because he might have bought the HDTV primarily to play games on it. Or just because it's really hard to get a new TV in the US that doesn't support HD so he kinda had no other choice (we have plenty of <720p plasmas here in Europe though).

The only DVD player there was to show how bad it looked compared to Blu-ray.
That means something.

Yes - it means that movie studios are desperate to find new ways to get our money. Ever seen the reports on Hollywood deep in trouble with ticket sales dropping through this year? They need everything and more to convince us to spend money on their movies, again and again. Just wait until Lucas releases Star Wars again...

 

[ERP]

I'm honestly asking here, for you personally what you do think pretty damn low is? Price wise for a HD player and HD movies?

For me the cost is basically irrelavent. I really am the prototypical early adopter, I bought my first DVD player when there were 9 titles, I'll get bored one month and buy (once I'm certain which format will win).

But I'm not exactly the average guy in the street, my GF is much closer to Joe Public and my guess is she'd jump when she was buying a new DVD player if it happened to also play HDDVD or BluRay and NetFlix rents them.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

All of them when buying new material. If you own an HDTV and a PS3 that plays HD movies, and a new film you want is available on DVD and BRD, why not buy the format that looks a lot better?

Price? I can buy new DVDs here for as little as $20 at times (Batman Begins was a recent example), whereas how much are BRD movies expected to cost, $60? No way is HD worth that much for an average customer...

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Price? I can buy new DVDs here for as little as $20 at times (Batman Begins was a recent example), whereas how much are BRD movies expected to cost, $60? No way is HD worth that much for an average customer...

I hacen't seen any figures for HD movies. If more than $5/£5 more than it'll flop, but I'd guess they wouldn't be that much more expensive. That's suicide (though I wouldn't put it past the studios to greed themselves to death!)

 

[mckmas8808]

Price? I can buy new DVDs here for as little as $20 at times (Batman Begins was a recent example), whereas how much are BRD movies expected to cost, $60? No way is HD worth that much for an average customer...

$60!?! I never seen those reports. I would say $40 at the most. I see why you don't want to buy HD movies. Gosh!

 

[Hardknock]

I hacen't seen any figures for HD movies. If more than $5/£5 more than it'll flop, but I'd guess they wouldn't be that much more expensive. That's suicide (though I wouldn't put it past the studios to greed themselves to death!)

DVDs were $30+ when they first came out. And likewise the players were ridiculously expensive.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

I really am not sure in that price, I recall reading something like that somewhere... anyone knows any facts?

 

[expletive]

I really am not sure in that price, I recall reading something like that somewhere... anyone knows any facts?

Someone high up from Sony made the statement "I think the customers will be pleased" when asked about pricing. That could mean any number of things though including that NO price has or will be announced soon. Sorry, i know this didnt add much...

 

[mckmas8808]

Someone high up from Sony made the statement "I think the customers will be pleased" when asked about pricing. That could mean any number of things though including that NO price has or will be announced soon. Sorry, i know this didnt add much...

To me pleased means less than $30-$35 personnally.

 

[Bobbler]

Price? I can buy new DVDs here for as little as $20 at times (Batman Begins was a recent example), whereas how much are BRD movies expected to cost, $60? No way is HD worth that much for an average customer...

Just curious, but why would you assume $60? That's kind of an absurd guess to make a point. It's hard to take someone's point seriously when there is a glaring fault like that, regardless of if I understand the point you're trying to make (and agree with it). Surely you don't believe BR/HD-DVD movies will be selling for anywhere near $60?

Another thing of note (in general): why does everyone think that people need to replace their entire back catalog of movies? It isn't as if every single BR/HD-DVD player won't support DVD as well. I think for it to succeed they need to worry more about making people switch over to the format and start buying on the new format and slowly replace later. It would be absurd to expect someone to go out and replace their dozens of DVDs because something new and shiny came out -- it seems to me that neither side expects such a thing (at least not for a long time), so why does it constantly come up in arguements?

 

[Bobbler]

I really am not sure in that price, I recall reading something like that somewhere... anyone knows any facts?

The only hint at movie prices was from some BR guy and it went something like "we are offering premium content, so there will be a premium on the price, but consumers should be pleasantly surprised" (something like that).

 

[V3]

Because he might already have paid a considerable amount of money to own a lot of movies on DVD.

I keep reading this argument over and over again. Are people really expecting because someone owns alot of titles in older format, they aren't going to get some new titles (titles they don't have) on a better format sometime in the future ? Or even re buy some of their favourite titles in newer format ?

 

[mckmas8808]

Another thing of note (in general): why does everyone think that people need to replace their entire back catalog of movies? It isn't as if every single BR/HD-DVD player won't support DVD as well. I think for it to succeed they need to worry more about making people switch over to the format and start buying on the new format and slowly replace later. It would be absurd to expect someone to go out and replace their dozens of DVDs because something new and shiny came out -- it seems to me that neither side expects such a thing (at least not for a long time), so why does it constantly come up in arguements?

This is something that I've never ever figured out. And nobody that says that ever has an answer for me or another person like yourself asking.

 

[expletive]

Just curious, but why would you assume $60? That's kind of an absurd guess to make a point. It's hard to take someone's point seriously when there is a glaring fault like that, regardless of if I understand the point you're trying to make (and agree with it). Surely you don't believe BR/HD-DVD movies will be selling for anywhere near $60?

Another thing of note (in general): why does everyone think that people need to replace their entire back catalog of movies? It isn't as if every single BR/HD-DVD player won't support DVD as well. I think for it to succeed they need to worry more about making people switch over to the format and start buying on the new format and slowly replace later. It would be absurd to expect someone to go out and replace their dozens of DVDs because something new and shiny came out -- it seems to me that neither side expects such a thing (at least not for a long time), so why does it constantly come up in arguements?

Well becuase if youre not talking about replacing old DVDs, then what exactly is the announced launch lineup of BR and HD-DVD offering? Of those 200 movies or so, i think 10-20 of them would be considered 'launched along side DVD version'? So now youre launching a new HD movie format with what, 20 titles, with 2 formats, over the next 8 months (from hardware launch)? ( a lot of these numbers are based on vague recollections of numbers but hopefully the point still is valid)

 

[Bobbler]

Well becuase if youre not talking about replacing old DVDs, then what exactly is the announced launch lineup of BR and HD-DVD offering? Of those 200 movies or so, i think 10-20 of them would be considered 'launched along side DVD version'? So now youre launching a new HD movie format with what, 20 titles, with 2 formats, over the next 8 months (from hardware launch)? ( a lot of these numbers are based on vague recollections of numbers but hopefully the point still is valid)

I believe DVD launch was the same way. Lots of old titles and some new ones. But I don't think the DVD forum expected people to all of a sudden get off their ass and replace all their movies -- that takes time, and forum users trying to make points shouldn't use it as some example of why it will fail, because I can tell you now that the BR/HD-DVD consortiums don't expect people to replace their entire collection for a long time to come (if at all), it's new releases that are where most of the money is going to come from and as people trust the format more they'll start to replace their old movies (when new versions come out with special crap or they get cheap or for whatever reason). Some of the arguments used makes it seem like they think people should be replacing their entire collection in the first year, which is absurd. A disc format is going to be around until we have TVs that are higher than 1080p (and even a few years after that), so BR/HD-DVD (whoever is still around by then), they have a lot of time to convince people that they need to replace their old stuff while they get new movies on the new format.

Additionally, not everyone has a copy of these old movies, so there will be new sales along with replacement sales. And some of those replacement sales will be just for the purpose of "I want to compare for myself" -- and in that situation I can bet most people will be satisfied (whether they can actually tell a difference or not, they will have convinced themselves that it was a good purchase because of the vested interest they have, seeing as they already spent a load getting to that point -- consumer rationalization is a powerful thing). People don't actually need to see a difference if marketing can tell them they do (which it will no doubt try, as it is really the only way to go about it).

Another reason (outside of the consume realm) for a new format is shuffling around who gets the royalties, and to spur sales increases because of the "new shiny stuff" excitement, as well as pushing HDTV sales (which, no surprise, the main backers of these new formats are sellers of HDTVs as well).

I digress...

 

[expletive]

I believe DVD launch was the same way. Lots of old titles and some new ones. But I don't think the DVD forum expected people to all of a sudden get off their ass and replace all their movies -- that takes time, and forum users trying to make points shouldn't use it as some example of why it will fail, because I can tell you now that the BR/HD-DVD consortiums don't expect people to replace their entire collection for a long time to come (if at all), it's new releases that are where most of the money is going to come from and as people trust the format more they'll start to replace their old movies (when new versions come out with special crap or they get cheap or for whatever reason)...

I think youre focusing on the wrong point. The idea is for people to buy players so that, yes, at some point they can sell lots of NEW titles. But no one is going to buy a player if all you did was promote that NEW stuff is coming out on the format because then youre left with a handful of titles by the end of 2006 (say 20), not a very compelling reason to buy a $500 or $1k player, even for the prototypical early adopters (especially for them who like software to show off and enjoy their new toys). Who is going to spend that kind of money on a playback device for 10 titles per format?

(We havent even mentioned the idea of the 'killer app' titles like LOTR, HP, Spiderman, and SW. Obviously these 'back titles' are critical. )

So now youre left with people like myself and ERP, with large back catalogs of DVD movies who arent compelled to replace those. For people like us, the launch of these formats amounts to the scenario above where there really IS only a few NEW titles launching through the end of the year, which is not compelling enough to pay a premium for a player.

 

[randycat99]

You are right on the mark, Bobbler!

Unfortunately, I anticipate the opposition here will simply go on with their debunked arguments as if you had never even said it. It doesn't matter how many times their arguments are debunked (because this topic is surely not the first time they have played these arguments), they bring them up anew in every new discussion.

 

[randycat99]

So now youre left with people like myself and ERP, with large back catalogs of DVD movies who arent compelled to replace those. For people like us, the launch of these formats amounts to the scenario above where there really IS only a few NEW titles launching through the end of the year, which is not compelling enough to pay a premium for a player.

No one demands that you do so (those discs will still be playable in HD players, so the move is no big deal). I doubt you accumulated your DVD collection in one fell swoop, either. You accumulated a little here, a little there, and over time it became a big collection. The same would be for an HD disc format.

This is like someone arguing that X360 will fail because they already have a sizable collection of XBox titles built up, do not wish buy any new titles, and there is only a trickle of titles available for X360 at this point in time.

 

[ihamoitc2005]

So now youre left with people like myself and ERP, with large back catalogs of DVD movies who arent compelled to replace those. For people like us, the launch of these formats amounts to the scenario above where there really IS only a few NEW titles launching through the end of the year, which is not compelling enough to pay a premium for a player.

If Blu-ray and HD-DVD maker wants buyers to replace old catalog of DVD disc they will not allow DVD read capability for Blu-ray and HD-DVD players. I feel it is clear they expect most sales for movies not already owned in DVD format by buyers but for people who do not have large DVD catalog (most people) they will also release already made movies in Blu-ray and HD-DVD. I also feel many new movies will be made in next-gen format and also in DVD disc because of extremely large DVD disc "base".