Shifty Geezer said:My guesses :
40 to 50 million. PS2 managed that I think.
25+% by the third year. Chances are most HDTV owners will be more likely to want PS3 because of it's HD abilities, and more willing ot pay the premium intial price. Alongside hardcore gamers, who normally are tech enthusiasts and I'd expect in the bracket of HDTV owners.
All of them if it's the only HD player they've got.
All of them when buying new material. If you own an HDTV and a PS3 that plays HD movies, and a new film you want is available on DVD and BRD, why not buy the format that looks a lot better?
If my random figures are anywhere near accurate, 10+ million BRD customers is quite a possibility. And 10 million UMD customers is enough to sell that format.
Just a couple of additional points to add to the equation here. You need to account for the fact that only a percentage of the 40-50 million care to watch HD movies (or movies at all) on their console(that menas the number of people that are BR people and not HD-DVD, DVD, VHS, cable because i already paid for it, On-demand, or Digtial downloaded users). So youre taking 25% of THAT number, not the whole 40-50 million.
Also, theres still no proof that the UMD format will expand well beyond what it is now, which is what it would need to do for its statistics to be relevant in this space. Yes the format can be 'carried' and is viable, but we're talking about replacement of the ubiquitous home move format outside of OTA or cable TV.