Microsoft announces external HD-DVD drive for Xbox 360

[expletive]

You act like these "early adopters" have bought the last hdtv they ever intend to buy. The very nature of them being early adopters suggests they are willing to (and have the expendable cash to) buy whatever is up and coming. Most certainly they will be in the market for a newer generation hdtv. Quite likely, they will have an eye on one of those 1080p hdtv's for their next tv purchase, just to have the best thing that can be bought. So the irony is that this looks pretty good for the coming hd disc formats- the early adopters will be leading the charge! Hmmm, maybe they should be named more accordingly...oh wait, they are already called early adopters.

...and maybe this is news to you, but early adopters always get burned in some way or another, as technology advances. That's inherent to the early adopter lifestyle. The upside is they are always playing with the latest gadgets before everyone else. Being a real "early adopter" essentially means you feel the risks are worth indulging in the latest stuff- hence, the resultant buying habits.

I dont think so, early adopters dont necesserily have to be early adopters for everything. For instance people that were early adopters for laserdiscs werent ALL early adopters for DVD and subsequently for these HD optical formats. Theres not a fixed number of early adopters for every new bit of CE released that are guarenteed buyers. (e.g. the 'early adopter' pool.) People still need to have a reason to BE early adopters, even if they have the propensity to be one for a particular product. Early adopters know theyre going to get burned with price, features, etc, even more cause for them to require a good reason for jumping in early.

In the end this is just another problem huge for HD optical disc adoption, another strike against both formats for mainstream adoption anytime soon. The estimates of 2 years before people even really start coming in off the sidelines are looking generous at this point.

 

[randycat99]

I dont think so, early adopters dont necesserily have to be early adopters for everything.

Nonsense- this is simply another variation of the "counter starts at zero for every new generation" argument. If they aren't buying the latest in CE-ware routinely, then they aren't real "early adopters". This is not to say there won't be a few that hold-out every now and then, but they are necessarily the exception, not the rule. The early adopter videophile is continuously trying out new stuff as they come out, because that is their nature. They want to play with the stuff first. They will be the first to jump into 1080p hdtv's, and they will subsequently be the first to buy into hd disc formats to feed those 1080p hdtv's. There is no argument on this. It just is.

They will also be the first to trumpet to the masses that we won't believe what this new equipment is capable of, and that we have not seen "real" hdtv, yet, until we've seen a 1080p movie disc played on a 1080p hdtv. It will be the new gold standard in video.

 

[expletive]

Nonsense- this is simply another variation of the "counter starts at zero for every new generation" argument. If they aren't buying the latest in CE-ware routinely, then they aren't real "early adopters". This is not to say there won't be a few that hold-out every now and then, but they are necessarily the exception, not the rule. The early adopter videophile is continuously trying out new stuff as they come out, because that is their nature. They want to play with the stuff first. They will be the first to jump into 1080p hdtv's, and they will subsequently be the first to buy into hd disc formats to feed those 1080p hdtv's. There is no argument on this. It just is.

You can convince youreself that theres X number of units sold built into this market already but clearly not every launch of these types of products does equally well in the early going. If it your suppostiion was true, we'd see equal amounts of these types of units (new, cutting edge, premium-priced CE items) being sold in the same early timeframe. That does not happen. Laserdisc, DVD, beta, vhs, et. al., they all sold differently early on for different reasons.

They will also be the first to trumpet to the masses that we won't believe what this new equipment is capable of, and that we have not seen "real" hdtv, yet, until we've seen a 1080p movie disc played on a 1080p hdtv. It will be the new gold standard in video.

I dont see what a handful of videohiles claiming anything is a 'gold standard' has to do with it. We've seen superior video formats die regardless of their faithful's trumpeting before. Youve got major companies spending loads of cash trumpeting their products as the next gold "something", yet not all of them survive.

 

[randycat99]

You can convince youreself that theres X number of units sold built into this market already but clearly not every launch of these types of products does equally well in the early going.

That outcome will be borne out of what the mass market does, not the early adopter. Nonetheless, that "early adopter" was most definitely in the check-out line with every one of those products you mention.

I dont see what a handful of videohiles claiming anything is a 'gold standard' has to do with it.

This was just fyi, as a measure of how this forthcoming format will be received- just like LD was at one time, and once again when progressive DVD players came out.

We've seen superior video formats die regardless of their faithful's trumpeting before. Youve got major companies spending loads of cash trumpeting their products as the next gold "something", yet not all of them survive.

You'd be crazy to believe that videophiles are not eager with enthusiasm for the arrival of a 1080p format. This isn't just the effect of artificial hype from the marketing of "major companies". 1080p is essentially the end of the road for what hdtv was planned to offer. People most certainly are eagerly awaiting to see how the ultimate of ultimate hdtv's will turn out. This is hardly about what console brand is backing which disc format.

...but all of this is just back-story. The point of this exchange was simply to address what's on the mind of the "early adopter", after you brought up the subject of what the early adopter will or will not do. I believe your initial comment is mistaken. So I chimed in.

The bottomline is that you are nutz if you actually believe the "early adopter" is hanging onto the first 720p hdtv they bought that only came with component inputs. The fact is, they have it on eBay already and are keeping a keen eye for what their next hdtv will be that will support 1080p from end-to-end. They are intending to be ready to rock by time hd disc players hit the market. What they bought 2 years ago is the farthest thing from their mind.

 

[AlphaWolf]

That outcome will be borne out of what the mass market does, not the early adopter. Nonetheless, that "early adopter" was most definitely in the check-out line with every one of those products you mention.

Well in order to be an early adopter of 1080p I'd guess they'd have to, but people that bought $5000+ HDTV's that are still working perfectly a few years ago, probably aren't going to be first in line to spend another $5000. There will be some people who have more money than sense, but you are really eliminating a lot of people

You'd be crazy to believe that videophiles are not eager with enthusiasm for the arrival of a 1080p format. This isn't just the effect of artificial hype from the marketing of "major companies". 1080p is essentially the end of the road for what hdtv was planned to offer. People most certainly are eagerly awaiting to see how the ultimate of ultimate hdtv's will turn out. This is hardly about what console brand is backing which disc format.

You'd be crazy to believe that everyone that spent 10k+ on a HDTV in the last 5 years is eager to do so again just because the new ones will have higher resolution.

...but all of this is just back-story. The point of this exchange was simply to address what's on the mind of the "early adopter", after you brought up the subject of what the early adopter will or will not do. I believe your initial comment is mistaken. So I chimed in.

Just because you were an early adopter of HDTV doesn't mean you will be an early adopter of blu-ray or hd-dvd or 1080p or SED tv. The list of people who can afford to early adopt on all of these things is very short.

The bottomline is that you are nutz if you actually believe the "early adopter" is hanging onto the first 720p hdtv they bought that only came with component inputs. The fact is, they have it on eBay already and are keeping a keen eye for what their next hdtv will be that will support 1080p from end-to-end. They are intending to be ready to rock by time hd disc players hit the market. What they bought 2 years ago is the farthest thing from their mind.

I think you're wrong. With the kind of money people spend on these things they don't just trade it up like a video card. There may be the odd case looking to do this, but I seriously doubt that will be the norm.

I think that when people buy CE they are looking at a 5year+ investment and when they feel they need to upgrade they will look at the high end again, but they aren't looking to replace products that are still under warranty just because something new came out. While they might like to do so it just doesn't make sense financially.

 

[randycat99]

Not everybody buys 5 and 10k hdtv's- so that's an even smaller group than the early adopter. Not even early adopters empty the bank like that. Early adopters buy stuff across the range. It's just got to be new, exciting, and trendy (and within their means, obviously).

We can spend all day and numerous pages of thinking of specific cases that don't fit the profile. That won't invalidate the profile. The profile stands on its own. Whether you choose to acknowledge it or not is another story.

The bottomline remains, that early adopters are typically the first to adopt things. [gasp] I know this is a hard concept to grasp, but c'mon!

 

[AlphaWolf]

Not everybody buys 5 and 10k hdtv's- so that's an even smaller group than the early adopter. Not even early adopters empty the bank like that. Early adopters buy stuff across the range. It's just got to be new, exciting, and trendy (and within their means, obviously).

The people that are going to buy 1080p sets in the next year, are going to have to spend that kind of money, unless the price on them starts falling much more dramatically.

The bottomline remains, that early adopters are typically the first to adopt things. [gasp] I know this is a hard concept to grasp, but c'mon!

You think that up all by yourself?

The whole point here is that there is a line that most technophiles won't cross. They might prioritize differently than many people but that doesn't give them endless resources. If they bought a high quality TV in the last few years, they probably aren't going to be in a rush to buy a new one.

 

[expletive]

I think in a lot of respects we're saying similar things but i think the point i'm trying to get across is that there is an order of magnitude difference between me and the guy with a constant height 2.35:1 projection setup in his basement.

While someone like myself was an early DVD adopter and have a projector setup, there are those who put my level of enthusiasm to shame when it comes to this stuff. The equipment i own now would put me in the category of 'videophile' for a lot of people but i know enough to realize there's a whole other 'level' to go to in this regard. So i think theres a lot of people like me who arent going rushing to drop $500 or $1000 on a player but who are 'transient' early adaopters. If youre only referring to the guy who upgrades his projection setup a couple of times per year to keep up, then yeah hes going to get a player. However, the number of people in that group is so small its not really relevant for any sort of adoption rate discussion imo.

 

[randycat99]

The people that are going to buy 1080p sets in the next year, are going to have to spend that kind of money, unless the price on them starts falling much more dramatically.

...and they'll be happy to do so to achieve the ultimate in hdtv.

The whole point here is that there is a line that most technophiles won't cross. They might prioritize differently than many people but that doesn't give them endless resources. If they bought a high quality TV in the last few years, they probably aren't going to be in a rush to buy a new one.

Don't be so sure. If they have their eye on the mark, they will think of a way to make it happen. What they own now is hardly an obstacle. If they see the opportunity, they'll unload it on eBay and then use the proceeds to augment their 1080p purchase. Keeping stuff until they break simply is not in their vocabulary. They are more likely rotating stuff on a regular basis.