Microsoft announces external HD-DVD drive for Xbox 360

[Laa-Yosh]

I think the original argument was that PS3 owners who have HDTVs will automatically buy a lot of BDR movies, hence giving it the upper hand in the HD format 'war'. What we're reasoning here is that this is not going to be an important factor.

 

[expletive]

No one demands that you do so (those discs will still be playable in HD players, so the move is no big deal). I doubt you accumulated your DVD collection in one fell swoop, either. You accumulated a little here, a little there, and over time it became a big collection. The same would be for an HD disc format.

Yes i agree here but then i'm not sure where discussing the same point. The main idea is that for people with large DVD collections, this launch is much less compelling becuase we/they may feel they already ahve those movies on a ;comparable' format. People didnt feel that way with DVD, it was clearly superior.

So this format(s) has an ADDITIONAL obstacle to hurdle in that the back catalog titles released (which would usually be a selling point) are not appealing to the usual suspects, i.e. early adopters, movie 'collectors'.

So if you dont have that kickstart with early adopters, collectors, or DVD buyers buying hardware and software its definitely an obstacle. Not insurmountable but a very real one.

 

[randycat99]

They will certainly then have the impetus to collect as they go, and that is exactly how DVD came into mass market.

 

[expletive]

If Blu-ray and HD-DVD maker wants buyers to replace old catalog of DVD disc they will not allow DVD read capability for Blu-ray and HD-DVD players. I feel it is clear they expect most sales for movies not already owned in DVD format by buyers but for people who do not have large DVD catalog (most people) they will also release already made movies in Blu-ray and HD-DVD. I also feel many new movies will be made in next-gen format and also in DVD disc because of extremely large DVD disc "base".

Then what makes them think that people who didnt buy these movies on DVD will now buy them on HD/BR? Why would they bother releasing the old movies to begin with if they didnt expect them to sell or at least drive sales of the players.

Buy laa-yosh's point is well taken, i think we're going a little off topic. We're diverting from the PS3 argument and onto the overall success of HDDVD or BR.

 

[ihamoitc2005]

Bd

I think the original argument was that PS3 owners who have HDTVs will automatically buy a lot of BDR movies, hence giving it the upper hand in the HD format 'war'. What we're reasoning here is that this is not going to be an important factor.

If any movie is available in next-gen format and DVD, people who own next-gen format player will buy in new format, not DVD, because different in price is probably $2-3.

 

[ihamoitc2005]

Then what makes them think that people who didnt buy these movies on DVD will now buy them on HD/BR? Why would they bother releasing the old movies to begin with if they didnt expect them to sell or at least drive sales of the players.

Because only some people have old movies in DVD and other people who have DVD version might like new version with High Definition digital master. Remember most old films made with tape, not digital camera, so High Definition digital master made from original tape will be much better than upscale of 480P DVD.

 

[Sis]

Please don't use the weak sales of SACD and DVD-A to show some correlation to what BD or HD-DVD could do. Everyone knows now that SACD and DVD-A was never proven to be in demand. How many people purchased radios with SACD or DVD-A players? How much space did SACD's or DVD-A audio disc have in stores like BestBuy and Curcuit City or better yet Wal-Mart?

SACD and DVD-A having absolutely nothing to do with how BD or HD-DVD will play out. Again the PS3 will play a huge factor in HD movie sales (something neither SACD or DVD-A had).

No, my point was that just because something is based on a proven market does not mean the new thing is a defacto proven market. It has nothing to do with hi-def audio being equatable to hi-def video, for I agree that there's a gulf of difference there, with hi-def video surely being of much greater value to a much larger audience.

.Sis

 

[randycat99]

Yes i agree here but then i'm not sure where discussing the same point. The main idea is that for people with large DVD collections, this launch is much less compelling becuase we/they may feel they already ahve those movies on a ;comparable' format. People didnt feel that way with DVD, it was clearly superior.

I somehow doubt that you are qualified to speak on behalf of all people with large DVD collections. Just as there are examples such as you (who are not interested in transcending from their existing DVD collection), there are persons (also with large existing library of DVD) who are chomping at the bit for next gen video format, and are deadset in believing the new format is clearly superior. People don't collect DVD's just because they are DVD's. They collect them because they are the best format (for the time) of a movie they really like- they are collecting movies, not DVD discs. When the movies they want come out on a newer, better format, that's what they will be wanting.

 

[AlphaWolf]

If any movie is available in next-gen format and DVD, people who own next-gen format player will buy in new format, not DVD, because different in price is probably $2-3.

It'd be nice if that were true. Unfortunately I think you are horribly wrong.

 

[expletive]

They will certainly then have the impetus to collect as they go, and that is exactly how DVD came into mass market.

Not if they dont have a player they wont collect as they go.

DVD came into mass market becuase it was a clearly superior format for everyone with a TV, and the discs were priced to own instead of priced to rent (like a majority of VHS titles).

 

[ihamoitc2005]

Fingers crossed

It'd be nice if that were true. Unfortunately I think you are horribly wrong.

Then we must keep our "fingers crossed" no?

 

[expletive]

I somehow doubt that you are qualified to speak on behalf of all people with large DVD collections. Just as there are examples such as you (who are not interested in transcending from their existing DVD collection), there are persons (also with large existing library of DVD) who are chomping at the bit for next gen video format, and are deadset in believing the new format is clearly superior. People don't collect DVD's just because they are DVD's. They collect them because they are the best format (for the time) of a movie they really like- they are collection movies, DVD's. When the movies they want come out on a newer, better format, that's what they will be wanting.

You should read my post again:

Yes i agree here but then i'm not sure where discussing the same point. The main idea is that for people with large DVD collections, this launch is much less compelling becuase we/they may feel they already ahve those movies on a ;comparable' format. People didnt feel that way with DVD, it was clearly superior.

I'm not speaking on behalf of everyone with a large DVD collection. Just a scenario that will probably be the case for a significant number of them. Not necessarily all, not necessarily a majority, but enough for it to be relevant.

 

[AlphaWolf]

People don't collect DVD's just because they are DVD's. They collect them because they are the best format (for the time) of a movie they really like- they are collection movies, DVD's. When the movies they want come out on a newer, better format, that's what they will be wanting.

heh no. People collect DVDs for the content. If they find the quality is adequate they probably won't upgrade.

 

[randycat99]

Not if they dont have a player they wont collect as they go.

DVD came into mass market becuase it was a clearly superior format for everyone with a TV, and the discs were priced to own instead of priced to rent (like a majority of VHS titles).

They will have the player. That is already presumed, unless you are expecting CE to stop dead in its tracks (at the feet of $50 DVD players) and no PS3's are sold. Are you actually still holding on to this scenario???

 

[AlphaWolf]

Then we must keep our "fingers crossed" no?

Well you can keep your fingers crossed, but history shows us that the media companies will charge a heavy premium for them for at least a while.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

If any movie is available in next-gen format and DVD, people who own next-gen format player will buy in new format, not DVD, because different in price is probably $2-3.

I agree with the first part partially; but this is only true for PS3. X360 owners won't get a HD-drive automatically, so there it'll be the other way around - only those who want HD movies are going buy the drive the first place. But the price difference is, AFAIK, still unknown; and we're back to the original argument now, how many people are going to buy and how many movies, and why...

 

[ihamoitc2005]

New

Well you can keep your fingers crossed, but history shows us that the media companies will charge a heavy premium for them for at least a while.

New technology always expensive no? This is normal. But if price is always much higher that is surprising. I expect Blu-ray & HD-DVD will one-day be price of current DVD and DVD will be little bit cheaper for "low-end" market.

 

[randycat99]

heh no. People collect DVDs for the content. If they find the quality is adequate they probably won't upgrade.

They are collecting the best example of the content, not because it has the special aura of being a "DVD". Otherwise, with your argument, VHS (maybe even LD) would still be the dominant format, because most people thought they were "adequate" then, as well.

 

[expletive]

They will have the player. That is already presumed, unless you are expecting CE to stop dead in its tracks (at the feet of $50 DVD players) and no PS3's are sold. Are you actually still holding on to this scenario???

When the players reach $150 or less then we can have that discussion. Until then it will be an uphill battle for these formats based on everything ive said(and others).

As for the PS3, well thats the other half of the discussion (actually the real discussion) as to whether or not ican drive this format and how many "PS3 users" it takes to = 1 "stand alone player user" in terms of BR movie sales. My guess is at LEAST 3 ps3 users to equal 1 stand alone user in terms of movie sales.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

DVD prices here already range from $5 to $50. And you can get good movies for a low price, too; for example I've got Amelie and City of Lost Children recently at a petrol station and at a supermarket. I also wouldn't have considered to buy them at $50, and I wouldn't need to have them in HD, ever. I dunno about the US, but I expect most of the DVD sales to be driven by such purchases...