Microsoft announces external HD-DVD drive for Xbox 360

[Ty]

Ok, so the TV market was "proven" and adding color to it is analagous to the DVD market being proven and adding a high def format. Is that correct? In which case, I offer once again exhibit A, the DVD audio formats: surely a proven market (twice over, in fact: 1. music on discs and 2. DVDs) as you describe above.

Yes, that is the analogy I'm making. I think your analogy is further than mine simply because the noticeable difference between in SD-Audio vs. HD-Audio and SD-Video vs. HD-Video is far less with the former. People can't walk into a show room, listen to HD-Audio, and then get convinced they need to upgrade their system.

However people can walk into BestBuy, Circuit City, etc. and CLEARLY witness the HD difference.

Secondly I was also asking what is a proven market to you? One that is already successful? If so, then really, there's no way to argue with your definition because you simply require it to exist before you will accept it as a "proven" market - and really, that's completely your perogative.

The point again is regardless of what the movie studios want and what the CE manufacturers want, the consumers will decide.

I absolutely agree and would never argue otherwise. But as I said before, good marketing will get people to buy what they want, great marketing will get people to buy what they didn't want.


Lastly (and this is not directed at you Sis) - why are people hung up on replacing their entire DVD collection when faced with the possible adoption of an HD-disc player? Logic does NOT dictate that one would have to replace your collection whatsoever. You simply buy the HD-disc version from now on. Your current DVDs WILL play absolutely FINE on the next generation of disc players (unlike your VHS collection).

 

[AlphaWolf]

Lastly (and this is not directed at you Sis) - why are people hung up on replacing their entire DVD collection when faced with the possible adoption of an HD-disc player? Logic does NOT dictate that one would have to replace your collection whatsoever. You simply buy the HD-disc version from now on. Your current DVDs WILL play absolutely FINE on the next generation of disc players (unlike your VHS collection).

Ask the movie studios this question. They seem to expect that people will want to upgrade their collection. They've complained that DVD sales aren't increasing, mostly the reason for this is that their back catalogue has been exhausted. The only way they are going to get sales on the upswing is to either release more movies or convince people to rebuy movies on a new format.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Once people get home and discover that their DVD collection looks like crap upscaled to 1080p they will be forced to upgrade to an HD movie player.

That is a single opinion only. I think most DVDs look quite good, especially the recent ones. I've seen Sith on a 60-inch Samsung plasma and it was quite OK...

 

[ihamoitc2005]

Collectors edition

Nothing in there to make most people pay a premium for a movie. You can already see this with DVDs and the collectors editions. There are some people that want that extra content, but I suspect that most people just want the movie judging from the number of collectors editions vs standard editions that they sell in the stores.

Higher price and large selection of "special" edition and "collectors" edition for many movies is good indicator and is good sign that many DVD buyers will pay extra for more content even without extra image quality. "Low end" market who buys cheap standard edition is always very large but when HD is standard only small group of low-end market will want low image quality DVD and this is same as only small group still likes to buy VHS player. When next-gen format becomes standard format, then it will have same price as what is now DVD price.

 

[expletive]

Lastly (and this is not directed at you Sis) - why are people hung up on replacing their entire DVD collection when faced with the possible adoption of an HD-disc player? Logic does NOT dictate that one would have to replace your collection whatsoever. You simply buy the HD-disc version from now on. Your current DVDs WILL play absolutely FINE on the next generation of disc players (unlike your VHS collection).

See my response to bobbler earlier on this. If people arent buying old movies, then theyre only buying new movies, if theyre only buying new movies, then the 200 list of annoucned titles quickly becomes 10 or 20. Are people going to buy a new player for 10 titles each on 2 different formats this year?

With VHS it was a bit different (see bigus' dad) because every titles that came out was an upgrade to what you had, owned or not, on any TV in the house. It more or less impacts the available software for each format and makes the decision to buy a player less compelling. IT wont STOP adoption of an HD standard but it wil slow down its mainstream acceptance because the # of titles to reach 'critical mass' will take longer.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Higher price and large selection of "special" edition and "collectors" edition for many movies is good indicator and is good sign that many DVD buyers will pay extra for more content even without extra image quality. "Low end" market who buys cheap standard edition is always very large but when HD is standard only small group of low-end market will want low image quality DVD and this is same as only small group still likes to buy VHS player. When next-gen format becomes standard format, then it will have same price as what is now DVD price.

When HD is the standard? Getting way ahead of yourself aren't you?

Restate this point in 2012 and we'll talk.

 

[ihamoitc2005]

Future

When HD is the standard? Getting way ahead of yourself aren't you?

Restate this point in 2012 and we'll talk.

Always we must look forward my friend because that is where the future is.

 

[expletive]

My friend I agree that there will be some PS3 owners who do not buy or rent movies but I think you will agree that any PS3 owner who buys or rents movie disc will choose BD version over DVD version if it is available at vendor.

I feel biggest question is distribution and good example is Blockbuster who may not carry BD or HD-DVD movie disc items until many players are sold (unless early deal with studios is made). BD has good chance for early Blockbuster support because of large PS3 sales but HD-DVD group must work very hard for this. Key for HD-DVD is to have player at low price available at Best Buy, Walmart and similar "normal consumer" type vendors.

Will it be at the vendor, will it cost the same (or close to it)? Those are important questions that havent yet been answered. BUt even if they are the same, the fact that remains that, imo, you cant count a PS3 the same as a stand alone player for software sales.

The kid who buys a $400 ps3 is just not going to buy the same amount of movies as the guy who bought the $1k stand alone palyer.

What it amounts to for me is that if the PS3 sells 3 million units, the software consumption for those ps3s will be about the same as if 1 million stand alone units were sold. OBviously im jsut estimating numbers here but thats the jist of my point.

 

[randycat99]

The kid who buys a $400 ps3 is just not going to buy the same amount of movies as the guy who bought the $1k stand alone palyer.

Fortunately, the market for PS3 covers those kids, the 20 somethings, the 30+ established (the OG console gamers)- the whole range. The early adopter who buys a $1k standalone is but a drop in the bucket, by comparison. The entire range of PS3 consumers will have one reason or other to pick up a BR title at one time or another. If they like it, they'll buy more. Simple as that.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Always we must look forward my friend because that is where the future is.

Sure you can look forward, but most of the discussion has been about adoption rates, which means whats going to make a person buy an HD movie in the next few years. It's going to take people buying into the format to make HD the standard, you can't just assume this all happens.

I don't expect HD movies to outsell DVD for at least 5 years.

 

[ihamoitc2005]

Adult

The kid who buys a $400 ps3 is just not going to buy the same amount of movies as the guy who bought the $1k stand alone palyer.

I think you will find most PS3 buyers will be adults (over 18) and this market buys many movies and games. But they also buy adult movies. Do you not think it is only short time before 1080P adult film is made? How much is adult film DVD market? Now they will all want 1080P adult film. Why do you think Sony showed 1080P camera at CES? They know adult entertainment market is always on cutting edge of technology.

 

[expletive]

Fortunately, the market for PS3 covers those kids, the 20 somethings, the 30+ established (the OG console gamers)- the whole range. The early adopter who buys a $1k standalone is but a drop in the bucket, by comparison. The entire range of PS3 consumers will have one reason or other to pick up a BR title at one time or another. If they like it, they'll buy more. Simple as that.

Regardless, even the person who buys the $150 BR player down the road will buy more movies than the PS3 owner on average. Its not about whether or not every PS3 owner will ever buy a BR movie. You're either 'not getting it' or we just disagree which i though we established a few posts back so... lets you and i agree to disagree on it.

 

[expletive]

I think you will find most PS3 buyers will be adults (over 18) and this market buys many movies and games. But they also buy adult movies. Do you not think it is only short time before 1080P adult film is made? How much is adult film DVD market? Now they will all want 1080P adult film. Why do you think Sony showed 1080P camera at CES? They know adult entertainment market is always on cutting edge of technology.

SO youre saying that people who own PS3s will buy the same amount of movies as people who buy stand alone players? IS that the point youre making?

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Warren Spector once answered us in an interview that it really is a shame that the first meaning of 'adult entertainment' nowadays is porn... Just for an offtopic note as the discussion apparently reached a dead end

 

[ihamoitc2005]

Conservative

I don't expect HD movies to outsell DVD for at least 5 years.

That is very conservative estimate because in 5 years $75 next-gen format player should be available so everyone can buy one. Also 1080P TV should be available at normal price in 5 years so it is not easy to think why they will want to buy DVD player and not so great image quality DVD movies. But it is impossible to predict future so maybe you are correct. I am sure will find out in 5 years or less.

 

[ihamoitc2005]

Next gen

SO youre saying that people who own PS3s will buy the same amount of movies as people who buy stand alone players? IS that the point youre making?

There will always be some PS3 owners who never buy or rent movies but most will buy or rent movies and those who do will rent or buy next-gen format instead of DVD when choice is available.

 

[randycat99]

Regardless, even the person who buys the $150 BR player down the road will buy more movies than the PS3 owner on average.

By time they get to $150, the format will already have been decided. So its a moot point.

To suggest that somehow PS3 buyers can be any less of a rabid movie fan than this distinct "standalone buyer" profile you've contrived is quite ridiculous. There is no clear demarcation between these profiles. It's all overlap, movie sale behavior will likely be quite similar.

If you want to be contrived about this profiles, it would not be so difficult to argue that these "early standalone buyers" are the wealthy types you buy stuff on a whim one week and then lose interest in it altogether next week, when the next new thing captures their fancy. These early adopter types cannot be counted on in the slightest to affect a successful market adoption outside of a few weeks timespan of interest, let alone the sheer lack of numbers.

 

[AlphaWolf]

That is very conservative estimate because in 5 years $75 next-gen format player should be available so everyone can buy one. Also 1080P TV should be available at normal price in 5 years so it is not easy to think why they will want to buy DVD player and not so great image quality DVD movies. But it is impossible to predict future so maybe you are correct. I am sure will find out in 5 years or less.

Most people don't think DVD looks bad.

I really doubt you will see 1080p sets being competetively priced in 5 years. I certainly don't expect them to be going from 'so expensive most people wouldn't consider them' to 'the norm' in 5 years. Perhaps if they solve OLED issues, but thats another story.

HD players will have to reach the $50 price point before the HD media can even think about competing with DVD.

 

[seismologist]

That is a single opinion only. I think most DVDs look quite good, especially the recent ones. I've seen Sith on a 60-inch Samsung plasma and it was quite OK...

It's not even my opinion it's more like an assumption. I question what DVD's will look like blown up to 1080p. Was that Samsung plasma 1080p?

What I'm saying is that once TVs make the move to 1080p
we might end up in a situation like we're in now where your SD content actually looked better on your old TV and the only solution is to upgrade your source material to HD.

 

[AlphaWolf]

To suggest that somehow PS3 buyers can be any less of a rabid movie fan than this distinct "standalone buyer" profile you've contrived is quite ridiculous. There is no clear demarcation between these profiles. It's all overlap, movie sale behavior will likely be quite similar.

It's fairly well thought out line of reasoning if you ask me. The people who early adopt the standalones are going to be videophiles. I don't think could say (with a straight face anyway) thats true about all the people who will buy the PS3.