Microsoft announces external HD-DVD drive for Xbox 360

[Ty]

I would suggest that the HDTV market is not unproven but an HD disc format is.

.Sis

By that logic, color TV was unproven. What would make it proven? If it were already selling as well as DVDs?

Note that this is NOT to argue that an HD disc format will reign supreme now mind you. I really don't know if any HD disc format will take over in this current time period.

 

[mckmas8808]

No, I do see this side (and in fact, if you remember my earlier discussions, I really believed both formats would be complete flops for lack of consumer interest). I've come around to seeing that there may be potential for this market. But I'm still not sure how you convince someone that 1080p HD content is vastly superior to 480p widescreen without showing them side by side--and maybe that is "how". And if you get it free in the PS3 then I'm sure that'll allow people to sample it...

But I stand by the point, and regardless of that I would add that since both formats are not yet released, it is the definition of an unproven market.

.Sis

I respect that post of yours, but everytime someone comes to my house and sees a Sunday Night Football game on ESPN in HD they are blown away. I've never had a person at my house watch the Discovery Channel in HD and not be very very impressed.

I remember a rep (I think it was a Sony rep) that said something like, "people have never been so excited to watch grass grow until they watch Discovery Channel in HD". Seriously I've watched the insects and animals in the D.C. channel only because it's so beautiful.

So after seeing people's responses to my HDTV I just can't see other people with HDTV's passing up buying HD movies just because.

 

[Titanio]

HDTVs aren't a "small" market in the U.S. anymore. It's quite large actually. But when I say "market" I am refering to:

1. How many PS3 owners will own an HDTV?
2. How many of those owners will have HDMI?
3. How many are dissatisfied with the quality of DVDs on their HDTVs?
4. And of those that meet the first 3 qualifications, how many want to invest in a format that has no guarantee of being the victor in the format war?


When it all comes down to it, there's no way of foreseeing what percentage of PS3 buyers are going to want (or even have the capabilities) to play Blu-Ray movies.

..in HD. I think that'll be a significant proportion, though. I thought I read previously that most X360 buyers had HDTVs, and I think the same will be true of PS3 buyers, initially at least.

I think most who see Blu-ray on their HDTVs will become dissatisfied with the quality of their DVDs if they're not already I'm definitely in the latter camp, though, for most DVDs. Some transfers are exceptional, and they hold up well, but they're few and far between (and even they look much better with simple upconversion, which would be a foretaste of native HD quality). HDTVs more often than not highlight the deficiencies of any SD material, not just DVD, and it's a common complaint amongst HDTV adopters when they first see that for themselves. i.e. they want HD content. Perhaps this is a good argument for Sony bundling a sampler disc or even a full Blu-ray movie with PS3, to make that argument.

 

[seismologist]

When it all comes down to it, there's no way of foreseeing what percentage of PS3 buyers are going to want (or even have the capabilities) to play Blu-Ray movies. Thus unproven. I strongly doubt retailers are going to allocate large amounts of shelf space for an "unproven" disc format on an unproven market (we all know the PS3 is the trojan horse). They'll test the waters first....

it's not going to matter what people want. Pretty soon buying a DVD player that can only display 480P will no longer be acceptable.
I dont think I saw a single DVD-only player on display at CES.

 

[mckmas8808]

it's not going to matter what people want. Pretty soon buying a DVD player that can only display 480P will no longer be acceptable.
I dont think I saw a single DVD-only player on display at CES.

And remember this guy was actually at the show. Sooner or later these companies are going to slow down the number of DVD titles that come out and they are going to up the number of HD movies titles that come out.

There's a demand for HD movies, just like there's a demand for HD content from ABC, FOX, and ESPN. Again nobody in there right mind will pay $2,000 for a nice HDTV, pay say $10 extra for HD for their satellite every month, and then turn around and not buy HD movies. It just doesn't make comment sense for millions of humans to do.

 

[seismologist]

And remember this guy was actually at the show. Sooner or later these companies are going to slow down the number of DVD titles that come out and they are going to up the number of HD movies titles that come out.

yeah I dont want to pretend to be the authority on this but that's the general impression CES left on me. HDTV = HD movies.

The only DVD player I saw there was the one being used to show how badly it looks compared to Blu Ray.

 

[Pugger]

I agree with London Boy in that the problem for Blu-Ray and HD DVD are not each other but DVD market as is. DVD players are ten a penny and the films can be had for under a tenner. The DVD market took ages to take off you the UK, probably 3-4 years before sales were similar to that of Video. The thing is the Jump in quality from Video to DVD was visble to everyone and it still took ages for DVD to take off. HD for me is different, the jump in quality for me is nowhere near big as Video to DVD and even if want to make the jump it requires a massive outlay in hardware, IE HD TV. HD will take off but I reckon its going to take longer than it did for DVD.

 

[Hardknock]

And remember this guy was actually at the show. Sooner or later these companies are going to slow down the number of DVD titles that come out and they are going to up the number of HD movies titles that come out.

There's a demand for HD movies, just like there's a demand for HD content from ABC, FOX, and ESPN. Again nobody in there right mind will pay $2,000 for a nice HDTV, pay say $10 extra for HD for their satellite every month, and then turn around and not buy HD movies. It just doesn't make comment sense for millions of humans to do.

Umm, again it seems your knowledge on this subject is very limited. And a lot of your statements are downright falsehoods. The vast majority of HDTV owners do not pay for or own any "HD" content. The reason why you don't see more channels in HD is simply because there aren't enough people paying for it yet for them to make money. Maybe Blu-Ray or HD-DVD can change this? Who knows? But until it does, it's still an unproven market.


Also to back up Sis. Here's a little known fact. I used to work at Bestbuy and did you know that all the video reels that you see on those HDTVs at these electronic stores are not coming from an HD source?? That is simply a DVD that is being played back on all those TVs, and the majority of consumers are still impressed Just goes to show, unless someone can really present the benefit of Blu-Ray or HD-DVD, the average consumer may feel they don't need these new "HD" discs.

 

[Sis]

By that logic, color TV was unproven. What would make it proven? If it were already selling as well as DVDs?

Ok, so the TV market was "proven" and adding color to it is analagous to the DVD market being proven and adding a high def format. Is that correct? In which case, I offer once again exhibit A, the DVD audio formats: surely a proven market (twice over, in fact: 1. music on discs and 2. DVDs) as you describe above.

The point again is regardless of what the movie studios want and what the CE manufacturers want, the consumers will decide.

.Sis

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Sis is just too right IMHO... If I could go and have my DVDs swapped into HD versions (hey, I've played for the right to watch the movie, not for owning it, correct? so why should I pay again? then I wouldn't think about buying a HD player. But as I'll have to buy every movie, and most likely at a higher price than its DVD version, I'll certainly think twice about it. The difference in image quality might not be important enough to try to sell a large DVD collection and pay a lot of extra money to buy them back again.
Actually, even with new releases, one would have to consider which version to choose if the HD version would cost 2 times as much... Recent DVDs look pretty cool on my HDTV already (okay, it's 'just' a 32 inch LCD and not some 50 inch plasma).

 

[AlphaWolf]

Sis is just too right IMHO... If I could go and have my DVDs swapped into HD versions (hey, I've played for the right to watch the movie, not for owning it, correct? so why should I pay again? then I wouldn't think about buying a HD player. But as I'll have to buy every movie, and most likely at a higher price than its DVD version, I'll certainly think twice about it. The difference in image quality might not be important enough to try to sell a large DVD collection and pay a lot of extra money to buy them back again.
Actually, even with new releases, one would have to consider which version to choose if the HD version would cost 2 times as much... Recent DVDs look pretty cool on my HDTV already (okay, it's 'just' a 32 inch LCD and not some 50 inch plasma).

Ya there's really only a few movies in my collection which I would consider replacing with a high definition version and even that would have a price limit. ie I would consider buying HD LOTR trilogy, but would I pay more than $100 for it? Not likely.

 

[mckmas8808]

Ok, so the TV market was "proven" and adding color to it is analagous to the DVD market being proven and adding a high def format. Is that correct? In which case, I offer once again exhibit A, the DVD audio formats: surely a proven market (twice over, in fact: 1. music on discs and 2. DVDs) as you describe above.

The point again is regardless of what the movie studios want and what the CE manufacturers want, the consumers will decide.

.Sis

Please don't use the weak sales of SACD and DVD-A to show some correlation to what BD or HD-DVD could do. Everyone knows now that SACD and DVD-A was never proven to be in demand. How many people purchased radios with SACD or DVD-A players? How much space did SACD's or DVD-A audio disc have in stores like BestBuy and Curcuit City or better yet Wal-Mart?

SACD and DVD-A having absolutely nothing to do with how BD or HD-DVD will play out. Again the PS3 will play a huge factor in HD movie sales (something neither SACD or DVD-A had).

 

[seismologist]

I'm betting that pretty soon DVD players are going to start looking like EDTV. It's close but still not fully HD (which is good enough for some people). I dont know about you guys but I would never buy an EDTV

and mckmas is right. For most of us the next HDTV we buy is going to be a flat panel 1080p set. Possibly an SED? Most likely you're not going to want to limit yourself to watching 480p DVDs on it.

 

[Powderkeg]

I

If you had a movie studio and you understood that both Blu-ray and HD-DVD had support for vc-1 and mpeg2, and you had 3 hour film with extra content which format and codec will you choose? One that can have a codec at high bit-rate or one that can only have same codec at low-bit rate? Every studio has this choice.

I choose the low bit rate and use it for both formats to save a ton of money and time.

I think you'll find movie studios that are concerned about their bottom line profits will care more about saving time and money than they will the bitrate of the disk. In case you haven't noticed, Hollywood isn't exactly concerned with having the absolute best quality products, and are far more interested in providing 'just good enough' work to get the job done.

 

[mckmas8808]

Actually, even with new releases, one would have to consider which version to choose if the HD version would cost 2 times as much... Recent DVDs look pretty cool on my HDTV already (okay, it's 'just' a 32 inch LCD and not some 50 inch plasma).

Well too bad. I guess your nice HDTV won't be used 100% then.

 

[expletive]

Ok, so the TV market was "proven" and adding color to it is analagous to the DVD market being proven and adding a high def format. Is that correct? In which case, I offer once again exhibit A, the DVD audio formats: surely a proven market (twice over, in fact: 1. music on discs and 2. DVDs) as you describe above.

The point again is regardless of what the movie studios want and what the CE manufacturers want, the consumers will decide.

.Sis

And to add on here, High res music was able to come up with universal players rather quickly (albeit at a higher price). Customers who wanted the tech didnt even have to put a stake in the ground on a format and STILL didnt buy the damned things. ATM there are no universal HD movie players on the horizon. On the death of hi-res audio, my guess is becuase people just dont sit around and listen to music anymore (like i do), and didnt have the equipment to do the new formats any justice. Take want you want and apply it but the lack of a universal player figures in somewhere to the compounded issues HD movies will face, similarly (or in this case, worse off) than hires audio.

 

[mckmas8808]

And to add on here, High res music was able to come up with universal players rather quickly (albeit at a higher price). Customers who wanted the tech didnt even have to put a stake in the ground on a format and STILL didnt buy the damned things. ATM there are no universal HD movie players on the horizon. On the death of hi-res audio, my guess is becuase people just dont sit around and listen to music anymore (like i do), and didnt have the equipment to do the new formats any justice. Take want you want and apply it but the lack of a universal player figures in somewhere to the compounded issues HD movies will face, similarly (or in this case, worse off) than hires audio.

Again people never showed a true demand for super audio disc to hear music from Britney Spears, Linkin Park, to Jay-Z. The opposite it true about HD video. We have MS and Sony shouting at the top of their lungs about, "this is the HD generation" when it comes to games.

And like Shifty (I think it was him) said some survey showed that most Xbox 360 owners had or planned on buying a HDTV. That's what I call demand for HD video.

 

[Powderkeg]

Again the PS3 will play a huge factor in HD movie sales (something neither SACD or DVD-A had).

I'm really interested as to how much validity you actually think there is in that claim.

How many people do you think will buy the PS3 in the first 3 years?

What percentage of those do you think own HDTVs?

What percentage of those would use a gaming console as their primary movie player?

What percentage of those would convert from DVD to Bluray format immediately?




I would be really surprised if realistic numbers for all of the above came up to over a million or so PS3 owners who will adopt Bluray over standard DVD in the first 3 years. In an industry with over a billion customers worldwide, a million PS3 owners is just one drop in the bucket.

 

[expletive]

Sis is just too right IMHO... If I could go and have my DVDs swapped into HD versions (hey, I've played for the right to watch the movie, not for owning it, correct? so why should I pay again? then I wouldn't think about buying a HD player. But as I'll have to buy every movie, and most likely at a higher price than its DVD version, I'll certainly think twice about it. The difference in image quality might not be important enough to try to sell a large DVD collection and pay a lot of extra money to buy them back again.

Its almost as if the 'priced to own' DVD market will now reverse and work against hollywood since people have built up these alrge movie collections. MY guess is a lot of people feel like you do and arent about to go restocking their entire collection for a movie with a better picture that theyll only watch (MAYBE) a couple of times a year. I'm sure not chomping at the bit to do it...

(I've got almost twice as many now...)

 

[mckmas8808]

Powderkeg its's called a sample. Again the Xbox 360 survey showed that most X360 owners either have a HDTV or plan to get one. Explain to me why this shouldn't be the case for PS3 owners.

And why would a PS3 owner that has a HDTV not buy a HD movie? And stop making it sound like BD and HD-DVD only applies to the PS3 market. Other companies are making players too. Listen to seismologist the man was at CES. NO DVD PLAYERS! The only DVD player there was to show how bad it looked compared to Blu-ray.

That means something.