Microsoft announces external HD-DVD drive for Xbox 360

[swanlee]

As much as I want an HD disc format this war is going to end up like SACD vs DVD-A.
There is not enough difference especially useability wise for average joe to justify a new player and replacing DVD they may already have. both formats may be DOA

 

[ihamoitc2005]

Price

My irony sense is tingling. Please present some evidence to suggest the Blu-Ray OPU is significantly more expensive than HD-DVD. I've noticed you've mentioned this a couple of times now over the past few days, even at one point suggesting an entirely unsubstantiated $400 vs. $100 scenario.

I do not know why but many think price of Blu-ray and HD-DVD price is high because of production cost. Production cost is small "fraction" of price. Real cost is development cost and advertising like prescription drugs. If Sony wants to sell $100 Blu-ray player they can and if Toshiba wants to sell $100 HD-DVD player they can but then this is waste for opportunity to make large profits from "early adopter" sales. Even today some pay >$10,000 for DVD player when Walmart has $30 DVD player! I am surprised by low price of all next-gen drives at CES. True hifi type buyer will pay much more no problem.

Also, Blu-ray and HD-DVD drives have not so different technology. What is different is disc because Blu-ray has better protection layer for disc surface for more accurate read/write purpose.

 

[scooby_dooby]

It's not. But it's similarly not ok to ask for "hard numbers" from one person while laying your own assumptions out without them in the same breath.

it's fine to ask for hard numbers, because I'm simply assuming what I'm seeing with my two eyes. HD-DVD drives has a cost advantage over BR.

If Bobbler wants to waltz along and say, no they are essentially equal, well that flies in teh face of what we're seeing in the makretplace, so if you're going to make a claim ,like that back it up with some #'s.

It's far to easy to just say they're both disc technologies, using blu lasers, so the prices must be similar. That's BS. We're seeing a huge gap in pricing, telling me the OPU costs are NOT similar, anyone who wants to claim otherwise should be able to give some hard #'s to back up their claims.

 

[cthellis42]

What's wrong with what Phil said is he tosses any chance that HD-DVD is actually cheaper out the window, flat out disregards this possibility.

He said no such thing. He said it seemed pretty obvious that, by targetting a much lower price point, some in the HD-DVD are willing to sacrifice their early-adopter premiums and gain headway and that--by extension--those in the BR camp who do not follow are feeling comfortable in the advantages (even if they are only publicly-perceived advantages) of Blu-Ray for now.

...and unless you are suggesting that there is a $500 differential in materials cost, that would indeed appear to be the case. There could still be substantial cost differences, but even a $200 difference (which I think most would consider highly suspect) does out change that observation--it just mitigates the extent.

I find it kinda ass backwards. Normally if one player was price at 1/2 - 1/3 the price of the competition, we would assume that player is signifigantly cheaper to produce. Unless we had some evidence to the contrary. We have no evidence to the contrary, yet somehow it's ok to just go ahead and assume that they have equal costs, and that the price drop is due to deperation? Why is that ok?

Normally we would assume that if they were the same players aimed at the same market and said market is established. For INITIAL WAVE technologies, we're looking at many other factors.

What evidence that you so emphatically ask for is there that Blu-Ray players cost hideously more than HD-DVD players?

 

[cthellis42]

it's fine to ask for hard numbers, because I'm simply assuming what I'm seeing with my two eyes. HD-DVD drives has a cost advantage over BR.

They probably do.

Is that cost advantage $500? And if not, how much do you think it will be? ...and to what do you account the REST of the price difference if not exactly what Phil was saying?

 

[scooby_dooby]

whatever, his post basically said "the initial price may be lower but that won't last, and hd-dvd are already priced below'e their timeline out of desperation"

so in other words hd-dvd does not have a single true advantage of bluray.

FUD.

Anyways, I'm doine arguing about plastic discs. You guys can just keep creating your own facts without having any real ones...

to answer your final question - I expect the price advantage MAY last long enough to allow hd-dvd to be the first below the $200 mark which could give them some traction.

phils assumption was that there was no true cost advanatage, and that assumption is what I took issue with. it's an uneducated, uninformed assumption, based on nothing but his gut feeling, and ignoring the currently announced prices.

 

[ihamoitc2005]

Doa

As much as I want an HD disc format this war is going to end up like SACD vs DVD-A.
There is not enough difference especially useability wise for average joe to justify a new player and replacing DVD they may already have. both formats may be DOA

Only way for Blu-Ray is DOA is if PS3 is sales failure no? This is probably not so likely so maybe Blu-ray has no problem for large sales. Question is does HD-DVD have any chance for large sales. If HD-DVD is built-in for Xbox360 then I would say no problem for HD-DVD. Then world is only divided in two and both have much support. But now Xbox360 has no HD-DVD inside, only DVD, and HD-DVD is "after market" component so maybe some Xbox360 buyers will buy this "accessory" but many may not buy this. And stand-alone player has no large demand because better quality Blu-ray unit is in PS3 at same or less price. Maybe if Toshiba SED is only HD-DVD compatible and cannot have Blu-ray then maybe hi-fi type buyer will buy some HD-DVD player.

 

[Java_man]

It seems more and more obvious that the Xbox 360 is a rushed product.
Microsoft should have waited to release the Xbox 360 with a HD-DVD drive instead of coming with this add-on affair.
Not that i really care about HD movies in a close future,and even for this i prefer a stand alone
player,but i think that HD DVD would have been an excellent HD games medium especially for Japanese developpers.
If Microsoft wasn't so scared by sony and so greedy, they would have waited until at least November 2006,thus 5 years after the release of the first XBox and they would have certainly avoided several big errors(heat problems,less than stellar launch games,not enough launch products,too small L2 cache memory,only 10 MB edram,etc...).
The Xbox 360 could have been a much better product.
Anyway i am sure that this add-on is just a temporary solution and that soon or late Microsoft will release Xbox 360 with built-in HD DVD drive.

 

[drpepper]

What evidence that you so emphatically ask for is there that Blu-Ray players cost hideously more than HD-DVD players?

There is no real evidence. Just hearsay.

 

[Sis]

I was aware of that, yet it seemed quite obvious to me, that Sis and others in this thread have been bringing up the $150 as a counter-argument against the better support on Blu-Ray while cost is obviously the biggest advantage the HD-DVD camp has over BR.

My post was there to bring things back to earth, that even with the initial cost advantage HD-DVD has going for it, you won't see stand-alone players hitting that $150 price point soon, unless they are really desperate and decide to take big hits. Already it seems obvious that the $500 players are probably priced below their timeline to help HD-DVD gain a better position - something I think the Blu-Ray camp hasn't followed yet given their much higher prices and the fact that they are still in the advantage.

For prices to fall to that point, production, demand and sales are obviously an important factor - and those are directly related to content and support the medium has going for it. If HD-DVD fails to get enough exclusive content for it that will spark demand, sales will be low and that will make reaching that price point even more difficult. blu-Ray on the other hand seems to have the leverage at the moment and it would make sense that the companies involved there are betting on its success - a potentially large userbase that PS3 will bring and open up is of course a factor as well.

Content goes with the mainstream...in order for a device to get mainstream to get the content it is suggested that it must get below $150...therefore the first device to get below 150 "has a better chance at going mainstream."

You seem to be arguing that whichever goes mainstream first will get below $150. Or that content will be there well ahead of it going mainstream. Neither of these seem correct.

.Sis

Note: Substitute "magical price point" for 150 above. It is not a literal dollar amount.

 

[ihamoitc2005]

Volume

They probably do.

Is that cost advantage $500? And if not, how much do you think it will be? ...and to what do you account the REST of the price difference if not exactly what Phil was saying?

Actually because of large volume for PS3, Blu-ray player is probably cheaper for manufacturer. But really both are cheap for manufacturer. High price is for different reason.

 

[AlphaWolf]

It seems more and more obvious that the Xbox 360 is a rushed product.
Microsoft should have waited to release the Xbox 360 with a HD-DVD drive instead of coming this add-on affair.
Not that i really care about HD movies in a close future,and even for this i prefer a stand alone
player,but i think that HD DVD would have be an excellent medium especially for Japanese developpers.
If Microsoft wasn't so scared by sony and so greedy, they would have waited until at least November 2006,thus 5 years after the release of the first XBox and they would have certainly avoided several big errors(heat problems,less than stellar launch games,not enough launch products,too small L2 cache memory,etc...).
The Xbox 360 could have been a much better product.
Anyway i am sure that this add-on is just a temporary solution and that soon or late Microsoft will release Xbox 360 with built-in HD DVD drive.

There will be no SKU with an internal HD DVD drive. MS has made this clear.

 

[scooby_dooby]

There is no real evidence. Just hearsay.

There is evidence. The HD-DVD players are 1/2 the price of the BR players. That's actually something real we can base opinions on.

 

[Tap In]

It seems more and more obvious that the Xbox 360 is a rushed product.

First to market... sometimes sacrifices need to be made.

I see it less as rushed and more as designed to be flexible & scalable.

It's seems foreign to us as it's not the way it's usually done in this industry but it is an interesting approach.

Just because something has never been done before does not mean it won't work. :smile:

 

[cthellis42]

whatever, his post basically said "the initial price may be lower but that won't last, and hd-dvd are already priced below'e their timeline out of desperation"

so in other words hd-dvd does not have a single true advantage of bluray.

You're reading too much into his comments.

Would they be maintaining a $500 advantage when they start to hit $150 price points? Of course not. Would they maintain SOME price advantage...? Quite possibly. But just how much, and would it make a real difference at that point? Personally, I don't imagine that that point (years away with plenty of tech-advancement and cost-saving measures in front of them for both camps) BR would be much more than $250 on the average, and people even NOW buy Joe Average DVD players anywhere between $50 and $200. (Feature and brand depending.) They pay even more for recorders. They pay even MORE when they're bundled with other devices.

I do believe what he's saying is that there will be no discernable price difference that is so obvious to the consumer (as $500 vs $1000 is now) by that time that that alone would continue to overcome any other factors (as $500 vs $1000 is much more likely to right now).

 

[Mmmkay]

guys can just keep creating your own facts without having any real ones...

Is it wrong that people follow by your example?

Players are generally targeted at specific segments of the market. The feature set of those $1800 players significantly outweigh that of the cheaper ones. The $1800 Pioneer model is part of their 'Elite' range for example. That's not even getting into the discussion of loss-leading vs. early adopter CE price gouging.

Analysts have speculated, after Toshiba's $500 announcement, that they could possibly be loss leading or at least aggressively pricing their hardware as a last resort.
Reuters reporting on CES:

Ted Schadler, an analyst with Forrester Research, said HD DVD’s aggressive pricing may help its hand.

“HD DVD is clearly treating this is a loss leader. For Toshiba, it’s less risky to lose money on the players than it is to lose the war altogether. It’s now a game of chicken to see who can drop the price the fastest in order to drive adoption faster,” he said.

The Register reporting on Samsung's newly announced player obtained a quote from a senior official:

The BD-P1000 is scheduled to ship to the US for around $1000 - twice the price of Toshiba's entry-level HD DVD player. Senior Samsung staff claimed that's the result of last-minute price discounting to help make HD DVD appear more attractive to consumers. Whatever the reason, it's going to set a precedent that BD player makers are going to have to follow.

For now, though, Samsung officials said BD would succeed in the market by offering consumers the "best features" and the "best HD performance". They also believe BD will win through thanks to its superior support from Hollywood studios and other content providers.

The Inquirer (yeah I know!) corroborated this story, quoting Peter Weedfald (Senior VP of Strategic Marketing) as the senior official in question.

No lower level consumer BD-ROM players have been announced that much is true [although not all CE manufacturers have announced their players yet], although I hear that the PS3 is being announced soon. Since people keep trying to figure out how Sony can provide a BD-ROM player so [in theory ] cheaply, perhaps that is the reason there have been no low end announcements so far. It could be possible that in the short term, the PS3 will commmand the low cost end until the BoM and royalty prices drop enough to affordably market cost+ BD-ROM players below $500. Vertical integration, economies of scale, and second/third order revenue streams for the PS3 help to keep their prices low.

[edtied for additional supportive evidence]

 

[scooby_dooby]

"I do believe what he's saying is that there will be no discernable price difference that is so obvious to the consumer (as $500 vs $1000 is now) by that time that that alone would continue to overcome any other factors (as $500 vs $1000 is much more likely to right now)."

Sure and that's a rather rosy scenario for Blu-Ray isn't it?

It could just as easily be a major price advantage, that extends well throughout next year. Maybe they don't overcome it so quickly?

It's all speculation, that's why I took issue with his statements. It's fine to speculate, just don't try and post your own theories as if they are fact.

 

[Bobbler]

Based on a post by AmirM at avsforums, head of windows media group or something liek that, he confirmed that if looking for a quote on the OPU's you get #'s like that. He's a active part of the forum, and has alot of credibility as a good honest guy. No reason to believe he's lying.

It makes sense that HD-DVD is cheaper, since it's more basic technology. So, if you guys want to claim the costs are essentially equal the show us the proof! Why is it ok to just assume they are near-equal?

I find it kinda ass backwards. Normally if one player was price at 1/2 - 1/3 the price of the competition, we would assume that player is signifigantly cheaper to produce. Unless we had some evidence to the contrary. We have no evidence to the contrary, yet somehow it's ok to just go ahead and assume that they have equal costs, and that the price drop is due to deperation? Why is that ok?

As has been previously stated, Amirm has shown his bias many times (often downplaying BR things and touting HD-DVD features). So I wouldn't go to him for the most accurate numbers -- I don't think hes lying so much as hes not presenting the entire truth. He's in a position that he has good information but his bias often twists it making him a very dangerous source (as he could easily sound like a very good source, seeing as he probably knows quite a bit). I wouldn't trust him on making comparisons, but for information on HD-DVD he'd probably be quite good. Look at the answers to the questions that were posted in that mpeg2 vs h.264/vc-1 thread -- almost every answer he somehow touted hd-dvd (which was actually rather humorous) even though they were about BR and Mpeg2.

People assume they are near equal because there are actually not many differences between the formats -- disc structure is most of the differences (how close the data is to the surface, etc). That's where the touted advantage HD-DVD has is (disc media cost) -- I've never heard them mention that players would be cheaper... Wouldn't you assume that they'd be shouting that all the time (seeing as it makes a bigger difference to the user base rather than a few cents on a disc)?

The assumption that it is a move out of desperation comes from the way this type of product is always initially released. Every new fangled technology starts out quite expensive and then slowly comes down (look at DVD players... they weren't 500 when they first came out). I think the typical assumption on a release is to be gouged, and if they aren't then it it's assumed something is wrong or the product isn't so new fangled (if people assumed they are going to get gouged then why would Toshiba not do it?) -- companies will price things at whatever they can get away with, and toshiba could have gotten away with charging $1k if they felt they were on solid ground. This part is really secondary to HD-DVD players and BR player's production costs -- even if HD-DVD players cost 100 to make, it doesn't make sense that Toshiba would cut its price that much unless it felt threatened (as HD-DVD and BR are supposed to be equivalent products, thus earning a similar price tag).

Additionally, I think I misunderstood your last comment that I responded to. I thought you were saying that DVD was based off CD, which it seems you weren't -- so ignore that comment.

 

[cthellis42]

Actually because of large volume for PS3, Blu-ray player is probably cheaper for manufacturer. But really both are cheap for manufacturer. High price is for different reason.

Other manufacturers won't have that volume advantage--yet--and Sony would certainly be willing to lose a forkload to get the PS3 out there and retain its' brand leadership. As we also don't know how much they're going to charge for the PS3, mass-production may not be enough to counteract other factors. Yet.

In general, it does show promise of doing so in the future, however.

There is evidence. The HD-DVD players are 1/2 the price of the BR players. That's actually something real we can base opinions on.

That has exactly as little evidence as you say Phil has regarding his response. (Which I still think you're being too literal in interpreting.) Emerging technologies tend to also have a tremendous mark-up that they CAN take advantage of, or COULD forego to trade profit margins for market exposure.

If you're demanding "hard numbers" and similar evidence from others' assumptions, shouldn't you be supplying the same for your own?

 

[drpepper]

There is evidence. The HD-DVD players are 1/2 the price of the BR players. That's actually something real we can base opinions on.

Can you provide a link, perhaps a press release/white papers?, that corroberates you claim of a price difference in components of $500 vs $100? And don't say, "some guy at this forum whom I trust..." I want the word straight from the horses mouth.

Doing a google search the only price advantage I see from HD-DVD are the manufacturing of discs. Even then most articles claim that price advantage will only last for so long. So down the line that price advantage will be null. Or nil for the objective-C folks.