Microsoft announces external HD-DVD drive for Xbox 360

[Sis]

In many ways, I think the PS3 will have more to do with lowering BR player prices than HD-DVD competition. Just when will it launch, for how much, and what kind of volumes will it kick out? Competitors can bounce their individual advantages off each other to prove who can sustain certain price points and why, but just how does the same player compete against another of the SAME PLAYER, which also has a kickass game machine underneath it?

I think when the PS3 starts rolling out, we'll likely see straight-up standalone players sink to around its' price, and the emphasis for more expensive players be on recording. (Which will start with this tech much earlier than it did with DVD.)

Unless there's going to be some huge difference between BR in the PS3 and other capable BR drives for movie playing, but... I can't see how it would for first-generation releases. (Nor in what fashion the differences will take, as they're not as apparent as with DVD in the PS2.)

I said in an earlier post that I believe the prices all around are more likely based on market conditions than BOM. I think the Blu-ray manufacturers are making a ton of profit and the HD-DVD manufacturers are making less of a ton of profit.

So I agree; once the PS3 releases, market pressure should drive the standalone players' prices downward. If there is any real debate here, in my mind it amounts to: what happens during the time before the PS3 launches everywhere, and in large enough quantity that someone who wants a hi-def movie player can actually buy one off the shelf?

.Sis

 

[BTOA]

The real question is, how much will this puppy be without all the added R&D cost by itself?

$5-50?

 

[cthellis42]

It depends how quickly HD-DVD drops, by the time PS3 hits US HD-DVD will be already be in the market for probably 6-8months (march - oct/nov), and there should be cheaper chinese models going for sale, if HD-DVD can get down to $300 or so it will already have established a strong foothold. If BR comes trickling down 12 months later, it will be too late.

HD-DVD and BR will both exist on the market for about that long, but I don't see any notable price drops coming from HD-DVD unless the BR players that exist alongside them drop notably in preparation. They won't want to lose THAT much early-adopter profit, and there is a limit to how much inroad they can possibly make in that time. The HDTV market is small and still accelerating, and the movies themselves will be on a slow buildup during that time as well.

And even if they drop $100-200, BR players could drop to scale and still be quite expensive, so unless the PS3 is launching at some idiotic level... I'd still expect its' emergence (with time-delay for it to gain prominence as well) to have the more notable impact on the plane jane set-top BR players around it.

 

[cthellis42]

I said in an earlier post that I believe the prices all around are more likely based on market conditions than BOM. I think the Blu-ray manufacturers are making a ton of profit and the HD-DVD manufacturers are making less of a ton of profit.

You'll get no arguement from me there. I just question such claims in general. A $350 minimum price difference...?!! I ain't bettin' no bippies. Hehe...

So I agree; once the PS3 releases, market pressure should drive the standalone players' prices downward. If there is any real debate here, in my mind it amounts to: what happens during the time before the PS3 launches everywhere, and in large enough quantity that someone who wants a hi-def movie player can actually buy one off the shelf?

Well, chances are most people who want a HD movie player during that time could easily afford one, as they've probably spent $1000 as a bare minimum to buy the HDTV with enough quality to play it on.

We unwashed masses will be waiting for a few years regardless to let things shake out, which gives some advantage to "no risk" (or at least "negligible risk") items like the PS3 (since you're buying it for the game machine, and movies are an extra perk) or PC drives (since you're likely buying it for recording capabilities, not movie playing).

 

[Bigus Dickus]

But now Xbox360 has no HD-DVD inside, only DVD, and HD-DVD is "after market" component so maybe some Xbox360 buyers will buy this "accessory" but many may not buy this. And stand-alone player has no large demand because better quality Blu-ray unit is in PS3 at same or less price.

Could you please explain the bolded statement? Are you talking about a stand alone HD-DVD player, or BRD player? On what basis are you making quality comparisons when neither the 360 HD-DVD, PS3, or stand alone players aren't yet available?

 

[swanlee]

The PS3 could do well but Blu-Ray still flop, not everyone that uses the PS3 will choose to replace their DVD's with Blu-Ray discs. In the end blu-Ray could end up as a proprietary format for the PS3 like cartridges were for the N64. It could also end up similar to the PSP movie format.

In the end sony is still taking some big risks blu-ray could flop and near the middle of the PS3 cycle the only thing using blu-ray will be the PS3, Dev may opt to ignore blu-ray and just make all the games on DVD because of cost issues. Also the PS3 may have a lot of technical issues being that this is the first major product to employ blu-ray.

 

[cthellis42]

Could you please explain the bolded statement? Are you talking about a stand alone HD-DVD player, or BRD player? On what basis are you making quality comparisons when neither the 360 HD-DVD, PS3, or stand alone players aren't yet available?

I assume ihamoitc is operating under the assumption that the PS3 will launch at $500 or less, which is likely the lowest price an HD-DVD player will be starting at. I would also assuming what's being talked about is ANY stand-alone option.

It does make OTHER assumptions regarding the quality and movie playing capabilities of the units (which are still unknown), but it's hard to argue against the automatic inclusion in the PS3 not having a large impact and making up a lot of folks' minds provided there are no substantially large price differences to factor in, or immediately obvious technical shortcomings.

I don't think, however, that ihamoitc was meaning to say that the PS3's BR player would be "higher quality" specifically, but more than a "more desirable" unit in the form of the PS3 overall would be available, and have a hard-to-overcome presence.

 

[ihamoitc2005]

Both

Could you please explain the bolded statement? Are you talking about a stand alone HD-DVD player, or BRD player? On what basis are you making quality comparisons when neither the 360 HD-DVD, PS3, or stand alone players aren't yet available?

Both. Demand for PS3 is like demand for Xbox360 because this is normal consumer product and many have desire to buy it but Blu-ray and HD-DVD standalone player is high priced hifi type product so demand is not so high and normal consumer does not know it. Normal consumer knows PS3 but does not know Blu-ray or HD-DVD.

For quality it is because Blu-ray is superior format with almost 2x capacity.

 

[Bigus Dickus]

So you were talking about HD-DVD "quality" vs. BRD "quality" then, not about any specific console or player vs. others? Sounds like you were really talking about quantity, not quality.

 

[cthellis42]

The PS3 could do well but Blu-Ray still flop, not everyone that uses the PS3 will choose to replace their DVD's with Blu-Ray discs. In the end blu-Ray could end up as a proprietary format for the PS3 like cartridges were for the N64. It could also end up similar to the PSP movie format.

In the end sony is still taking some big risks blu-ray could flop and near the middle of the PS3 cycle the only thing using blu-ray will be the PS3, Dev may opt to ignore blu-ray and just make all the games on DVD because of cost issues. Also the PS3 may have a lot of technical issues being that this is the first major product to employ blu-ray.

I can't see that mainly for merit of the support and momentum they already have--which is substantial--to which the PS3's own momentum will only enhance. The biggest hinderances I can see are on their end by A) pushing things and incurring technical screw-ups or shortcomings, or B) overestimating the prices they could command. (And while B can be mitigated by lowering prices, they will still affect the market's perception of their format and/or the PS3 if they screw it up too much.)

It would take some MASSIVE--and ultimate--backpedalling from manufacturers/publishers to change that, which I also can't see outside of technical mishandling or large overestimating of their mass-production timelines and costs. (Which I can't see also because large media companies should have been intricately involved in estimating this long before SHOWING such levels of support.)

Provided HD-DVD's support remains strong as well, what I mainly see is an ultimate decision to unify the formats a few years in (or at least assist each other in easing dual-development), brought about either because neither sees the ability to "destroy" the other any more, or clever manufacturers have figured out how to support both easily enough that it's seen they'll be "unified" cheaply whether they like it or not.

 

[ihamoitc2005]

Maybe

So you were talking about HD-DVD "quality" vs. BRD "quality" then, not about any specific console or player vs. others? Sounds like you were really talking about quantity, not quality.

Sometimes my words are not precise I am sorry for this. I was talking of quality for video which is from quantity of disc space for storage of video.

 

[cthellis42]

For quality it is because Blu-ray is superior format with almost 2x capacity.

Capacity isn't the name of the game except for recording purposes and potentially gaming.

Hollywood isn't going to suddenly want to give out more content for cheaper just because a disk can handle it. The question is "how many hours CAN HD-DVD hold compared to BR" after all is said and done, and if its' capacity is already over "what is necessary," then storage impact will be lessened.

Movie-wise, I can't see it. What MAY make the difference, however, is when all TV shows are commonly on HDTV resolutions, as they're sold not in set blocks of time (about 3 hours max for movies and some room for extras, which can usually sacrifice quality if need be) but instead in HUGE blocks of time and across multiple disks. The sell whole seasons at once. If one format can get on three disks what it takes another to do in five, then... that's certainly incentive!

Of course that is itself going to filter in very slowly, and by the time it's of major importance we will likely be having to compare the costs of dual/triple/quad layering and other factors in as well, which we cannot see now.

 

[patsu]

Assuming I understood BR capability...

What about the interactive layer ? The downloadable content that a BR player retrieves and flashes out (e.g., latest advertisement and other goodies) in a "Spiderman 3" blueray package. If it's a full-featured BluRay player, the additional capacity on the media should allow for more/larger incremental content ?

 

[Carl B]

Assuming I understood BR capability...

What about the interactive layer ? The downloadable content that a BR player retrieves and flashes out (e.g., latest advertisement and other goodies) in a "Spiderman 3" blueray package. If it's a full-featured BluRay player, the additional capacity on the media should allow for more/larger incremental content ?

It's not a physical layer of storage, it's a software layer implemented through Java.

 

[Hardknock]

Excellent analysis cthellis.

 

[patsu]

It's not a physical layer of storage, it's a software layer implemented through Java.

Right, but the larger capacity would allow for more and larger incremental content even though the stock release may be "the usuals" due to time constraints ?

 

[Carl B]

Right, but the larger capacity would allow for more and larger incremental content even though the stock release may be "the usuals" due to time constraints ?

Oh ok I see what you're saying. Yeah, well supposedly 'add-on' content after the sale of the movie is part of the plan, so I guess it might full-well be something we see.

 

[Bigus Dickus]

I was talking of quality for video which is from quantity of disc space for storage of video.

Why would quantity of storage space affect quality if they both can hold a complete movie at the same resolution? IMO, quality is much more determined by codecs, as is the case for Dolby Digital vs. DTS. Your argument is like saying that an .mp3 stored on a DVD sounds better than an .mp3 stored on a CD. Space available matters little... you should investigate how the two were encoded and compressed.

 

[cthellis42]

Right, but the larger capacity would allow for more and larger incremental content even though the stock release may be "the usuals" due to time constraints ?

Technically, yes, but that again is another "would it need so much that it would matter?" question, which I don't think we can answer off the cuff.

 

[ihamoitc2005]

Competition

Capacity isn't the name of the game except for recording purposes and potentially gaming.

Hollywood isn't going to suddenly want to give out more content for cheaper just because a disk can handle it. The question is "how many hours CAN HD-DVD hold compared to BR" after all is said and done, and if its' capacity is already over "what is necessary," then storage impact will be lessened.

Movie-wise, I can't see it. What MAY make the difference, however, is when all TV shows are commonly on HDTV resolutions, as they're sold not in set blocks of time (about 3 hours max for movies and some room for extras, which can usually sacrifice quality if need be) but instead in HUGE blocks of time and across multiple disks. Whole seasons. If one format can get on three disks what it takes another to do in five, then... that's certainly incentive!

Of course that is itself going to filter in very slowly, and by the time it's of major importance we will likely be having to compare the costs of dual/triple/quad layering and other factors in as well, which we cannot see now.

Competition means more features for discs will be added and new movies with better resolution and frame-rate will be made. For TV-shows, yes I feel you are correct mabe whole season on 1 disc can be made. But like games for blu-ray, all this will not be instant change. Always change is slow but some of this can be had soon when Blu-ray movies and TV shows are sold.