Microsoft announces external HD-DVD drive for Xbox 360

[Phil]

Read my post again.

They don't mean "launch at," they mean "get to."

I was aware of that, yet it seemed quite obvious to me, that Sis and others in this thread have been bringing up the $150 as a counter-argument against the better support on Blu-Ray while cost is obviously the biggest advantage the HD-DVD camp has over BR.

My post was there to bring things back to earth, that even with the initial cost advantage HD-DVD has going for it, you won't see stand-alone players hitting that $150 price point soon, unless they are really desperate and decide to take big hits. Already it seems obvious that the $500 players are probably priced below their timeline to help HD-DVD gain a better position - something I think the Blu-Ray camp hasn't followed yet given their much higher prices and the fact that they are still in the advantage.

For prices to fall to that point, production, demand and sales are obviously an important factor - and those are directly related to content and support the medium has going for it. If HD-DVD fails to get enough exclusive content for it that will spark demand, sales will be low and that will make reaching that price point even more difficult. blu-Ray on the other hand seems to have the leverage at the moment and it would make sense that the companies involved there are betting on its success - a potentially large userbase that PS3 will bring and open up is of course a factor as well.

 

[NavNucST3]

hmm so what if HDDVD loses the format war to BR. that addon will become like the Sega CD and 32x. LOL and will anything that MS does matter? I doubt releasing this addon will do much to help the HDDVD format.

I don't understand this argument. If indeed it takes 2-3 years for either of the formats to become mainstream, that would leave probably another 2-3 years before one of the products was no longer produced which would take us into the next generation of consoles.
I mean it took years for DVHS to actually die and it NEVER took off, they continued until I, Robot (the final release). I think the final release count was around 200+ movies/shows.

I don't see how this is a loss for either MSFT or the consumer.

 

[Tap In]

Prediction

HDDVD drive for $149.99


Bam! .... I'm buying one

 

[expletive]

Prediction

HDDVD drive for $149.99


Bam! .... I'm buying one

Only possible if they can ouput HDMi out of the original 360. If they need to essentially build a 'stand alone' player' for it i dont see how on earth it can reach this price.

 

[mckmas8808]

Only possible if they can ouput HDMi out of the original 360. If they need to essentially build a 'stand alone' player' for it i dont see how on earth it can reach this price.

I know. I will say $199.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Already it seems obvious that the $500 players are probably priced below their timeline to help HD-DVD gain a better position

why does it seems obvious? cause you just assume it's so? any evidence or shal l we all just go on your hunch?

You have no clue the true BOM of BR or HD-DVD and it's nothing but assuption and conjecture on your part.

 

[RobertR1]

A player that can play both formats would be ideal.

While 1080p is great for the future, the immediate future is with 1080i. Just recently have 1080p TV's started hitting the market and the millions of HD sets that have been sold are only 720p/1080i. The average consumer isn't going to upgrade their TV every couple of years for the best format available.

If the HDDVD players are cheaper and do 720p/1080i, they'll sell a lot more than expensive 1080p that have a very small market niche. Sure, in a few years time, 1080p will start to get more popular but by then there will be players that support both formats. I think the Blu Ray DVD players, esp. if they are really much more expensive than HD DVD players, will not appeal to majority of the public. Only enthusiasts and videophiles will be able to justify the 1080p players. Out of the 40+ people that I know have HDTV's not one has a 1080P set. All you have to do is look around in real life and not enthsiast message boards to get a real idea how the consumer market is.

 

[scooby_dooby]

So, in other words, you are retracting your claim that this hd-dvd add-on will "allow them to get their core console to $150"?



So you doubt the consumer will notice that if he wants a hd-dvd, he'll be looking at the core-unit + memorycard / harddrive extension + hd-dvd-add-on for a total price of $$$?
.

I'm not retracting anything, what I'm saying is extremely simply and this is te last time I'm spelling it out for you.

If they had've gone with a bundled HD-DVD drive they would not have been able to reach $150 as quickly as they can now. By going with the external drive they gain all marketing advantages of having HD-DVD, while avoiding an expensive core unit.

Could this be any simpler to understand?

You keep asking why is it an advantage? Well then take the time to read my ansrwe and for gods sake understand it: When a potential buyer is in store, getting the old talk from the salesman, PS3 now has one less feature over the 360, the 360 consumer can also rest assuered what they are purchasing is upgradeable. X360 sales will increase because of this.

p.s. as to your little # adding experiment, it's pointless. MS will be releasing a 3rd SKU. A HD-DVD sku, it wil probably include component/hdmi cables, the external HD drive and one controller in the $400 range next x-mas, or x-mas of 2007, this gives you everything that you would get in a PS3. Meanwhile they'll have the $150 or $200 core unit.

 

[cthellis42]

why does it seems obvious? cause you just assume it's so? any evidence or shal l we all just go on your hunch?

You have no clue the true BOM of BR or HD-DVD and it's nothing but assuption and conjecture on your part.

...because $1000 DVD players had anything much to do with their bill of materials?

 

[scooby_dooby]

Because DVD was an adaption to existing hardware based on 10-year old technology?

 

[Bobbler]

Because DVD was an adaption to existing hardware based on 10-year old technology?

What do you think HD-DVD and BR are? DVD is as close to CD as BR is to DVD. They all spin the same discs, but the lasers and logic are different.

 

[cthellis42]

I'm just saying initial releases have little to do with bill of materials. They're leaned on to take advantage of early adopters (people who are ALREADY spending thousands for the HDTV's to begin with), recoup R&D investment, and make their presence and more importantly their "status" and importance known, since mass-market acceptance is always years away.

We KNOW that for items like this--for the market that they're aiming at--they could certainly afford to release much higher than $500. The market would certainly bear it. And ultimately no one cares about what it costs THEM to make a machine--just what people are willing to pay for.

...so what actually seems wrong about what Phil said?

 

[scooby_dooby]

What do you think HD-DVD and BR are? DVD is as close to CD as BR is to DVD. They all spin the same discs, but the lasers and logic are different.

Provide hard #'s please.

Assumptions will not do. BR requires a much more expensive optical unit as far as I can tell.

What's wrong with what Phil said is he tosses any chance that HD-DVD is actually cheaper out the window, flat out disregards this possibility. And just decides to ASSume that there is no true cost advanatage to HD-DVD, and that it's all based on desperation. He has no clue to the true BOM and is just stating his opinion as if it's some sort of accepted fact.

 

[cthellis42]

This actually confused me a bit, though, Phil:

You didn't see the PlayStation, Dreamcast, GameCube, Xbox, Xbox360 launching at the magic price point of $199 either do you?

...cuz, well, the Dreamcast and GameCube DID both launch at $199!

Am I reading it wrong, or are you just being thrown off by your Euro-filter? Hehe...

 

[Mmmkay]

Assumptions will not do. BR requires a much more expensive optical unit.

My irony sense is tingling. Please present some evidence to suggest the Blu-Ray OPU is significantly more expensive than HD-DVD. I've noticed you've mentioned this a couple of times now over the past few days, even at one point suggesting an entirely unsubstantiated $400 vs. $100 scenario.

 

[cthellis42]

Provide hard #'s please.

Assumptions will not do. BR requires a much more expensive optical unit.

So he needs to back up his statement, while you don't? His claim seems similarly valid, since DVD was ALSO based on old tech. One would just have to argue "how much" and "how long" if you want to compare the generations, but still... You can't blithely toss off a simple comment regarding this generation of disk tech while ignoring the last.

...not that it has much to do with the starting player price regardless.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Based on a post by AmirM at avsforums, head of windows media group or something liek that, he confirmed that if looking for a quote on the OPU's you get #'s like that. He's a active part of the forum, and has alot of credibility as a good honest guy. No reason to believe he's lying.

It makes sense that HD-DVD is cheaper, since it's more basic technology. So, if you guys want to claim the costs are essentially equal the show us the proof! Why is it ok to just assume they are near-equal?

I find it kinda ass backwards. Normally if one player was price at 1/2 - 1/3 the price of the competition, we would assume that player is signifigantly cheaper to produce. Unless we had some evidence to the contrary. We have no evidence to the contrary, yet somehow it's ok to just go ahead and assume that they have equal costs, and that the price drop is due to deperation? Why is that ok?

 

[Mmmkay]

Based on a post by AmirM at avsforums, head of windows media group or something liek that, he confirmed that if looking for a quote on the OPU's you get #'s like that. He's a active part of the forum, and has alot of credibility as a good honest guy. No reason to believe he's lying.

Actually Amir's bias has been called out numerous times on the information he provides. You still need to give me a quote though.

 

[BTOA]

It makes sense that HD-DVD is cheaper, since it's more basic technology. So, if you guys want to claim the costs are essentially equal the show us the proof! Why is it ok to just assume they are near-equal?

Maybe because their both Blue Laser lens.

 

[cthellis42]

Why is it ok to just assume they are near-equal?

It's not. But it's similarly not ok to ask for "hard numbers" from one person while laying your own assumptions out without them in the same breath.

I don't think anyone here is arguing that BR components aren't more expensive, but they ARE questioning your assumptions as to the extent.

...and how it has anything to do with the ultimate starting player price, nor the reply you made to Phil.

Or are you seriously saying there could be a $500 difference between the materials cost of these players?