Microsoft announces external HD-DVD drive for Xbox 360
- Thread starter BlueTsunami
- Start date
scooby_dooby
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Titanio said:
according to the MS team, PS2 had about 10million installed base when the xbox launched, that was 18months after the PS2 launch. Where are you getting your numbers?
scooby_dooby said:
This is working on the assumption that the lower cost stays that way, though.
How do we know that HD-DVDs aren't being sold for "dirt cheap" now out of desperation? Instead of doing the normal gouge, Toshiba and pals are cutting into their profits a bit to try to desperately get some marketshare. Meanwhile BR is sitting comfortably and planning do the typical gouge and then scale down over time. Who's to say HD-DVD drives are actually cheaper to make? considering the drives both have the same basic parts (I'd say they are almost indentical in manufacturing costs -- 405nm lasers, and some logic which should be very much similar between the two), and considering that I don't see how you assume BR can't compete on pricing on the players (and they'll likely keep the higher price until they feel threatened by the contender). HD-DVD has a very much uphill battle, and the initial pricing looks more a move out of desperation rather than their ability to actually produce drives cheaper than BR manufacturers (which wouldn't even make sense, considering how similar the actual drives would be).
Just a thought.
scooby_dooby said:
That's pure speculation at this point. Why would you think the stand alone blu-ray players wouldn't match the HD-DVD counterparts.
Further more, Blu-Ray still has the content. With FOX, Sony, Disney and Warner supplying the content for Blu-ray, what reason is there to get an HD-DVD player? And if I'm not mistaken the first 3 are exclusive to Blu-Ray. Imagine Finding Nemo in High def.
edit: beat me to it bobbler.
scooby_dooby
Legend
First of all, we've already seen proof of lower prices on HD-DVD drives, Toshiba's drive is $500 versus what $1000 and $1800 for BR? And from what I understand, the BOM for BR drives is something like 4x to 5x more expensive than HD-DVD(anyone have hard #'s?).
Second of all, none of those studios are exclusive, and things can easily change. Studios will go to which ever platform starts selling media the fastest.
HD-DVD wil have 50 titles out by May, 200 by the end of 2006.( It will have $500 players out by May. In addition the base model HD-DVD players are compatible with existing DVD collections (base BR players are not) and will upscale DVD's to HD resolutions.
http://news.com.com/HD+DVD+backers+promise+200+movies/2100-1026_3-6019023.html?tag=nefd.top
Some of the notable HD-DVD titles:
"40 year old vergin", "Million Dollar Baby," "Harry Potter 4: The Goblet of Fire,"Jarhead", "Superman Returns", "Batman Begins"
Second of all, none of those studios are exclusive, and things can easily change. Studios will go to which ever platform starts selling media the fastest.
HD-DVD wil have 50 titles out by May, 200 by the end of 2006.( It will have $500 players out by May. In addition the base model HD-DVD players are compatible with existing DVD collections (base BR players are not) and will upscale DVD's to HD resolutions.
http://news.com.com/HD+DVD+backers+promise+200+movies/2100-1026_3-6019023.html?tag=nefd.top
Some of the notable HD-DVD titles:
"40 year old vergin", "Million Dollar Baby," "Harry Potter 4: The Goblet of Fire,"Jarhead", "Superman Returns", "Batman Begins"
scooby_dooby
Legend
Bobbler said:
Which is a valid assumption. What's not valid is to assume this will change for some reason. If HD-DVD is currently "dirt-cheap" because of pressure, it will continue to be until such a time when that pressure is relieved.
You're also assuming that the difference is not simply due to cheaper manufacturing costs for HD-DVD, sometime the simplest explanation is the correct one. Do you have reason to believe otherwise?
btw, I was reading some posts on avsforums, liked to from here (in the "warner support BR" thread) and they were saying the BOM for HD-DVD is like $50, wheras blu-ray is $200 or $300. Anyone confirm or deny???
scooby_dooby said:
Well I can assure you that no one here nknows in certain terms, or we all would have commented on this by now.
Can those AVS people deny or confirm? I mean they're the ones talking about it!
But even a $200-300 BOM would give more wiggle room than what we're seeing here with $1000-1800 players, so I'll just shrug my shoulders. I don't see *why* there would be such a discrepency though.
mckmas8808
Legend
scooby_dooby said:
Blu-ray players will play DVDs.
scooby_dooby said:
So... you're making that up? Really, how do you know that other than a forum discussion?
scooby_dooby said:
From this article you're sorely mistaken.
I wouldn't be surprised if Fox flexed their muscle and offered Star Wars (all six of them) and the new X-men 3 movie on Blu-ray in the near future.
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HD-DVD pricing is a sure sign of it's failure. Having to compete by making very little profit in the early stages is an of desperation on Toshiba's/NECs' part.
The Blu-ray companies feel no need to give away their products and are going to charge a premium for early adopters. They know they are operating from a position of strength. The initial buyers of these Blu-ray players are the same people who don't mind spending thousands of dollars on a 1080p TV set, so $1800 is not expensive at all to these people.
The Blu-ray companies feel no need to give away their products and are going to charge a premium for early adopters. They know they are operating from a position of strength. The initial buyers of these Blu-ray players are the same people who don't mind spending thousands of dollars on a 1080p TV set, so $1800 is not expensive at all to these people.
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scooby_dooby said:
Where are you getting those figures? 4x-5x the BOM cost? I'd love to find where that little tidbit of information came from (I'd be interested to know any costs at all, just out of curiosity) -- everything I've seen says they should be almost the same.
(That news.com article is rather funny -- I love the part where they mention that "One of the chief advantages of the format, as compared with the Blu-ray format supported by Sony and others, is that it is compatible with existing DVDs, executives said.", as if BR players won't all play DVDs too. Hilarity)
Also, I believe you'll find that those notable HD-DVD titles will find their way to BR... just like the BR backers aren't "exclusive", as you say, the HD-DVD ones aren't either (probably less so, at this point).
scooby_dooby
Legend
As far as I understand it, HD-DVD was built to be BC with DVD's, while BR was not. BR requires an additional 2nd laser, so it will contribute that much more to a higher BOM.
scooby_dooby said:
Except it still has to make a profit, and assuming the BOM costs of both BR and HD-DVD players are similar (which is a more valid assumption than there being a large difference -- HD-DVD forum would have touted that initially instead of just disc price differences...), there is a common bottom limit they will both hit -- thus, we can't assume that the HD-DVD players will continue to be lower priced. I'm far more likely to believe that HD-DVD and BR players have a similar BOM (based on their specs and the common use of most of the components) than I am that one has a significant difference.
scooby_dooby said:
No, the PS2 had about a 20 million installed base when xbox launched. PS2 had sold about 10 million 12 months after release in Japan.
http://www.scei.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdataps2_e.html
Edge said:
Software sales is whats important. The reason why these devices cost so much early on is becuase theres no economies of scale, not becuase they want to make lots of money on players that a very small percentage of the market can afford. $1800 is a lot for anyone at any time. People who own 1080p televisions are not just going to plop down $1800 for aplyer just because. They have jsut as much a chance of seeing HD-DVD as the more attractive option due to price as anyone. Why do you think BR keeps talking about the PS3? Becuase they feel installed abse is whats neeed to drive the format.
scooby_dooby said:
HD-DVD will need a second laser if it wants to read the red laser pits too. 405nm blue/violet laser isn't going to do much good on a DVD. The disc architecture is similar, this is true -- HD-DVD is essentially just DVD with smaller pits (blue/violet laser instead of the red laser). It's marketing PR spin.
And a laser used for reading DVDs is going to be dirt cheap at this point, we're talking 2-3 dollars (probably much less).
scooby_dooby
Legend
MasaC said:
shipped, not sold.
