Tesla is very obviously aiming directly at the price ceiling for the federal tax rebate on EVs rather than smooth ramping thing. Employing a strategy of two (or more) smaller cuts over the course of a year wouldn't drive the purchasing volume they now enjoy, as it wouldn't have been big enough fast enough to get so many of their most popular models under the IRS price threshold before the March 31st deadline.
And bluntly, Tesla might be the only EV producer in the US domestic market to have sufficient scale and vertical integration to build this many cars at this pricepoint while still sustaining good (enough) margins. They have been scaling their production capacity for a decade and I'll wager a fifty spot there's literally nobody else in the US EV market who can right now in Q1 of 2023 touch Tesla's sheer production capacity within a single order of mangitude.
In Q3 of 2022:
- The well reviewed Kia EV6 sold 4,996 units
- The comfortable and accessible VW ID.4 sold 6,657 units.
- What might be the strongest Model Y competitor, the Ford Mach E sold 10,414 units.
- The venerable Chevy Bolt, a super popular and quite inexpensive EV for everyone, sold 14,709 units.
- The Tesla Model 3 moved a whopping 55,030 units.
- And despite costing more than the M3 for what might be considered the same essential platform, the Model Y moved an even crazier 60,271 units.
I only listed what I felt were the most obvious contenders. The Bolt is the closest to Tesla in terms of absolute sales numbers, and it's still a landslide in Tesla's favor. This all in spite of how much more expensive even the cheapest Model 3 is compared ot the Bolt. Now imagine a world today where the Model 3 price is within spitting distance of the Bolt (after IRS rebate), then imagine a customer thinking about how to make that decision when all the Bolts are pretty much spoken for and the Model 3 is faster, longer range, more energy efficient, has a better charging network and may arguably have better creature comforts.
Yeah, I'm sure Tesla would rather the fatter margins, however someone with a complicated math degree from an Ivy league college surely napkin math'd it out to determine slightly lower margins (for a while) are more than made up when you pound out a quarter million sales in a single quarter. At the historical rate Tesla has been increasing production capacity for both the Y and 3, I wager they can probably produce that number too.
In short: there are bags of cash, then there are fat stacks of cash, then there is the mountain of mob cash Joker lit on fire in the 2nd Nolan Batman movie, and then somewhere beyond that poit is the sheer stupid amount of money Tesla is going to shovel into their fat maw after completely blowing out everyone else in this space during the IRS tax credit firesale.
Honestly, the very worst part of this is that asshole Musk getting rich from it. Ugh. Still, even to this day and this very moment, fuck that guy with all the sincerity in my heart.