Delay in Blu-Ray effect PS3?

[Bobbler]

I've used this story before: my dad bought a HD tv. When I came to visit, he made a point of putting on a football game to show off the high def capability of his set. He was incredibly proud of it.

The problem was the football game was analog SD, stretched to fit the screen. If he thinks that SD looks great, how on earth do you convince him that the DVD which looks much, much better (it isn't even stretched!) isn't really good enough?

Well, if he's convinced himself that SD on an HDTV looks fantastic then I can't imagine it'd be very hard to convince him of whatever marketing wants to about HD-DVD/BR. I'd say he's about as good a customer as these companies can hope for -- it sounds like marketing convinced him HDTVs were great without him really knowing or seeing it firsthand. He's already rationalized the purchase by blindly accepting anything he thinks is HD presented on the HDTV being great looking -- DVDs are old and I'm sure he must have some clue about that, so I can only assume he'd do the same type of thing if he saw something that was said to be HD.

I'm not sure your story means what you think it means.

 

[Powderkeg]

Well, if he's convinced himself that SD on an HDTV looks fantastic then I can't imagine it'd be very hard to convince him of whatever marketing wants to about HD-DVD/BR. I'd say he's about as good a customer as these companies can hope for -- it sounds like marketing convinced him HDTVs were great without him really knowing or seeing it firsthand. He's already rationalized the purchase by blindly accepting anything he thinks is HD presented on the HDTV being great looking -- DVDs are old and I'm sure he must have some clue about that, so I can only assume he'd do the same type of thing if he saw something that was said to be HD.

I'm not sure your story means what you think it means.

I'm not positive I know what his story meant, but I suspect it's something along these lines....

The analysis identified misperceptions of HDTV owners that could help explain why demand levels for HD services have remained significantly lower than HD television adoption rates. Results show that nearly half (49%) of HDTV owners surveyed are not taking full advantage of their HD televisions, as defined by receiving HD channels and having special equipment to watch HD programming (including an HD set-top box, a CableCARD, and/or an antenna).

* Close to one in four (28%) of HDTV owners reported that they did not get any special equipment from their service provider to watch HDTV channels because the picture quality was already improved with the purchase of an HDTV.

* 23% of HDTV owners did not invest in special equipment to watch HDTV channels because a message at the beginning of the programs they watch tells them that those programs are being broadcast in HD.

* Nearly one in five (18%) reported that they believed the HD television would give them high-definition channels without additional equipment.

In a separate survey that polled over 2,000 of Scientific-Atlanta’s (Explorer) eClub members with HD capable set-tops, more than 35 percent of HDTV owners learned that they need to get an HD content/service package to view HDTV programming from their cable operator.

http://webwire.com/ViewPressRel.asp?SESSIONID=&aId=6521


This is what is known as the placebo effect. You tell them it's better, you charge them a ton of money, and they fool themselves into believing that they are seeing some huge improvement when they aren't.

 

[Sis]

Well, if he's convinced himself that SD on an HDTV looks fantastic then I can't imagine it'd be very hard to convince him of whatever marketing wants to about HD-DVD/BR. I'd say he's about as good a customer as these companies can hope for -- it sounds like marketing convinced him HDTVs were great without him really knowing or seeing it firsthand. He's already rationalized the purchase by blindly accepting anything he thinks is HD presented on the HDTV being great looking -- DVDs are old and I'm sure he must have some clue about that, so I can only assume he'd do the same type of thing if he saw something that was said to be HD.

I'm not sure your story means what you think it means.

HDTV is a very simple sell: it's wider. This is obvious to every consumer. Picture quality is not so much.

Once you no longer have an obvious comparison, a consumer will just assume he's being ripped off.

 

[Bobbler]

I'm not positive I know what his story meant, but I suspect it's something along these lines....
http://webwire.com/ViewPressRel.asp?SESSIONID=&aId=6521
This is what is known as the placebo effect. You tell them it's better, you charge them a ton of money, and they fool themselves into believing that they are seeing some huge improvement when they aren't.

That's exactly what I'm talking about -- it appears all marketing would need to do is tell them that HD-DVD/BR are substantially better than what they've seen before and they'll happily plunk down cash and rationalize it regardless of if it's better or not. I'd say the lack of people actually using their HDTVs to the fullest has a lot to do with the fact that the information given to the customers sort of consisted solely of "HDTVs are good" and included little about the fact that you need an HD Tuner / cable/satellite to really appreciate it. Nothing in that precludes the ability of these companies to tell the consumers that HD movies are good and worth buying -- infact, that seems to be all those companies did to get to them to buy HDTVs in the first place. (Sis was trying to imply that they'd have a hard time with it... I'm saying I think they'll have an easy time if I was to go by that data and story -- of course it won't be quite that simple, but that information only points to that it is quite possible to get people to buy stuff even if they don't know anything about it).

It's a matter of marketing properly with those types of consumers. Sony has said they'll be spending a rather substantial amount on marketing this year, and I imagine a lot of other companies will too. This is the year of HD in the world of the TV oriented entertainment -- all aspects can be viewed in HD now, which wasn't really available prior to this year (gaming, movies, broadcast).

 

[eDoshin]

It doesn't matter the quality difference between BR/HD-DVD and upscaled DVD. The fact of the matter is, the manufacturers and retailers have placed their future in HD televisions, and max retail floor is dedicated to showcasing HD televisions. It would not make an iota of sense for a consumer who has plunked down a big chunk of money on an HD tv to stay with DVD when the HD version is available, even if the quality is only "marginally" better, and esp if they own a PS3. Given the steady adoption of HD televisions, the explosive introduction of BR via PS3, its not too difficult to imagine that HD content can grow exponentially within a fairly short period. I really cannot fathom any scenario where growth can stagnate except for maybe consumers totally rejecting the PS3 pricepoint.

 

[Powderkeg]

It would not make an iota of sense for a consumer who has plunked down a big chunk of money on an HD tv to stay with DVD when the HD version is available, even if the quality is only "marginally" better, and esp if they own a PS3.

One could also make the arguement that it does not make an iota of sense for a consumer to plunk down a big chunk of money on an HDTV when no HD movies are available and you can count the number of stations that broadcast in HD format on one hand.

But I bet you have an HDTV anyways, don't you?

 

[mckmas8808]

One could also make the arguement that it does not make an iota of sense for a consumer to plunk down a big chunk of money on an HDTV when no HD movies are available and you can count the number of stations that broadcast in HD format on one hand.

But I bet you have an HDTV anyways, don't you?

Ummm... that's what the PS3, Xbox 360, Bluray, and HD-DVD is for. Some of those are here and some are coming this year. What's the problem?

 

[eDoshin]

One could also make the arguement that it does not make an iota of sense for a consumer to plunk down a big chunk of money on an HDTV when no HD movies are available and you can count the number of stations that broadcast in HD format on one hand.

But I bet you have an HDTV anyways, don't you?

Yep .. and I've been watching PBS in HD

I'm just basing my prediction on the fact that when I walk into Best Buy, or even Costco, its all about the huge flatscreens. Are all of these HD .. tell u the truth, I don't even know .. I've only just assumed. But its all you really see people walk out the store with (obviously overgeneralizing).

BTW .. my last television was a 27" CRT It was free cuz of points I accumulated on my Sony creditcard (kinda scary actually).

 

[-tkf-]

Regarding the ongoing battle between the defenders of the DVD "is enough" and the "Blu-Ray is required for next gen" i wondered about one thing. Is DVD really that usefull when games have to use dual layer / DVD9?

I know several titles (can only think of one really) was shipped on DL, but some of them had issues because of the inherent delay when swithcing layers. In a game that just loads the next level it shouldn´t matter, but any game that streams, placing content on the two layers would have to be carefully planned.

 

[Titanio]

The PQ difference between a decent upscaling or progressive DVD player isn't nearly as dramatic as the difference between VHS > DVD or SD broadcasts > HD Broadcasts. You have to look for the difference

Are you comparing HD-DVD to DVD? Could we get screenshots of your side-by-side comparison? Because this doesn't really coincide with most of what I've read from others (and no, not just those who've invested in the systems, but journos at presentations etc.). I don't know about relative comparisons with VHS->DVD, I was really more addressing the "You have to look for the difference bit", but still it doesn't make sense that there could not be as dramatic a difference as between SD and HD Broadcasts, since Blu-ray/HD-DVD offer better quality still than HD broadcasts.

As for people who are over-the-moon about their stretched SD signals on their HDTV, point it out, show them a real HD signal, and see if they wish to go back. Not that TV HD signals bear an equivalence to HD-DVD or Blu-ray movies - their quality surpasses what you'll see in a TV signal.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Personal anecdote - in Harrods AV department there were lots of TVs of all prices on display, all looking rubbish. The only one that stood out was a pair of LG 40+" sets that looked fantastic. And that's because unlike all the other sets which were showing DVDs, these two were showing HD media streamed from an HDD. The difference was night and day. Once you can show side-by-side the difference between DVD and HD discs in store on an HD set, I expect it to be clear. I mean, you have people raving about HD TV broadcasts like Discovery HD. HD discs may not provide the same level of improvement over DVD and DVD offered over VHS, but they are going to provide the same different between HD broadcasts and SD broadcasts, better even as they can use higher bitrates. It like next-gen graphics aren't offering the same level of improvement over last gen as last gen offered over the gen before. Does that mean we don't need to upgrade our graphics next-gen...?

 

[Sis]

Personal anecdote - in Harrods AV department there were lots of TVs of all prices on display, all looking rubbish. The only one that stood out was a pair of LG 40+" sets that looked fantastic. And that's because unlike all the other sets which were showing DVDs, these two were showing HD media streamed from an HDD. The difference was night and day. Once you can show side-by-side the difference between DVD and HD discs in store on an HD set, I expect it to be clear. I mean, you have people raving about HD TV broadcasts like Discovery HD. HD discs may not provide the same level of improvement over DVD and DVD offered over VHS, but they are going to provide the same different between HD broadcasts and SD broadcasts, better even as they can use higher bitrates. It like next-gen graphics aren't offering the same level of improvement over last gen as last gen offered over the gen before. Does that mean we don't need to upgrade our graphics next-gen...?

All I know is that DVDs on my HD screen look incredible; I don't think I have the same discerning eye as say, london-boy or kyleb. But I also don't think I'm that far removed from an average consumer.

That said, I will be moving to HD to get rid of noticable compression artifacts; but even when I move to HD, do I replace my 300+ dvd library? Hell no. And yet I did replace my VHS library with DVD. And studios would naturally expect or hope to sell a lot of replacement copies...

I think the argument that the PS3 in combination with low Blu-ray prices gives consumers a cheap way (maybe even 'free') to move to Blu-ray has some merit; but this is still not the definition of success. Blu-ray and HD DVD have to sell to the broad mainstream; I suppose we can assume that those who buy the PS3 will demo movies to their friends and all the rest will see in-store comparisons, and so everyone will soon be jumping on to the HD disc format.

More likely, though, when people buy a new TV (which people just 'do' every so many years) they opt for the high def version, either "just because" or they hate the black bars on the top and bottom of their movies. I believe it is a mistake to draw parallels between HDTV adoption rate and HD disc format adoption.

 

[-tkf-]

I believe it is a mistake to draw parallels between HDTV adoption rate and HD disc format adoption.

But people will buy HiDef as their next TV, and right now many look to exchange their big bulky CRT with a nice and cheap Flatpanel TV (wife factor +++). If there is a HiDef TV in the home it´s only a matter of time before the need for HiDef material comes.

 

[Powderkeg]

Ummm... that's what the PS3, Xbox 360, Bluray, and HD-DVD is for. Some of those are here and some are coming this year. What's the problem?

Who said I had a problem?

 

[TheChefO]

All I know is that DVDs on my HD screen look incredible; I don't think I have the same discerning eye as say, london-boy or kyleb. But I also don't think I'm that far removed from an average consumer.

That said, I will be moving to HD to get rid of noticable compression artifacts; but even when I move to HD, do I replace my 300+ dvd library? Hell no. And yet I did replace my VHS library with DVD. And studios would naturally expect or hope to sell a lot of replacement copies...

I think the argument that the PS3 in combination with low Blu-ray prices gives consumers a cheap way (maybe even 'free') to move to Blu-ray has some merit; but this is still not the definition of success. Blu-ray and HD DVD have to sell to the broad mainstream; I suppose we can assume that those who buy the PS3 will demo movies to their friends and all the rest will see in-store comparisons, and so everyone will soon be jumping on to the HD disc format.

More likely, though, when people buy a new TV (which people just 'do' every so many years) they opt for the high def version, either "just because" or they hate the black bars on the top and bottom of their movies. I believe it is a mistake to draw parallels between HDTV adoption rate and HD disc format adoption.

Agreed the uptake will be much slower than dvd due to the current situation of hdtv adoption, high initial costs of hd movie format players, and general satisfaction with dvd quality even on most big screen hdtv's.

 

[Sis]

But people will buy HiDef as their next TV, and right now many look to exchange their big bulky CRT with a nice and cheap Flatpanel TV (wife factor +++). If there is a HiDef TV in the home it´s only a matter of time before the need for HiDef material comes.

And back to my original point: this "need" is mostly marketing driven. If consumers go out and replace their old TV with a new HDTV and then love what they see, marketing is in the position to convince them that what they see is not good enough. This is a much tougher sell than "I see you're buying a new TV, why not go with this awesome widescreen television. For the size, the price is the same, and you won't get those stupid black bars on movies--it'll be like sitting in a theater!"

It doesn't help when normal DVDs actually look pretty damn good on them.

 

[eDoshin]

It a definite given that my new movie purchases (at least the ones I really care about) will be in BR format. There's no point in getting DVD anymore, even tho PS3 will not be available for another half a year~. It'll be interesting to see a side by side comparison of the same movie .. although I guess I would have to switch back and forth. There was a display at best buy where they had the same scenes running side by side and the difference is startling.

 

[scooby_dooby]

There's no point in getting DVD anymore, even tho PS3 will not be available for another half a year.

Sure there is, hesitency to invest in a format that might fail for one thing. Secondly, affordable sub $200 BR players are still probably at least 2 years off, that's a long time.

I don't see the mass embrace that you see, though I do think they will sell every unit they can make initially due to the hardcore AV crowd, the same ones snapping up HD-DVD.

 

[kyleb]

It a definite given that my new movie purchases (at least the ones I really care about) will be in BR format. There's no point in getting DVD anymore, even tho PS3 will not be available for another half a year~. It'll be interesting to see a side by side comparison of the same movie .. although I guess I would have to switch back and forth. There was a display at best buy where they had the same scenes running side by side and the difference is startling.

Just brodcast HD smokes a DVD of the same movie, even on decent EDTV let alone a quality HDTV. At this point I simply won't buy DVDs anymore unless it is something that I'm at least fairly certian won't be avalable in HD down the line.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Just brodcast HD smokes a DVD of the same movie, even on decent ED display let alone a quality HDTV. At this point I simply won't buy DVDs anymore unless it is something that I'm at least fairly certian won't be avalable in HD down the line.

So you're not going to buy anything at all? Or will you just gamble on BR winning the format war?