All purpose Sales and Sales Rumours and Anecdotes [2019 Edition]

[Deleted member 11852]

What about those not even starting games? For me, BC gives me the opportunity to work on my backlog. Its easier for me to Start (and maybe even Finish) all those games I already have purchased.

Same. This study found 37% of Steam games were never played. Would you be more inclined to play previous generation game than current generation game? If so, why? If no, it's moot. Assuming yes, and as I've been conjecturing for years, what is this doing to the economics of videogames? Buying new low margin hardware, not buying as many games. Subscription models like GamePass mean what you we're spending is now turning into nickel and dimes for actual devs/publishers. How is any this sustainable longterm?

Are we all willing participants in culling large swathes of the videogame industry?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I wouldn't expect them too. But if a open-source project is getting something like 40% without knowing all the particulars of PS3, then a bunch of well-qualified engineers from Sony should be able to produce better results knowing their hardware.

Yes, but the same problems emulating PS3 will still exist, and the results, if not incredibly solid, won't find their way into a console, at least not for 'disc in' BC. Is Sony can only get some titles working well enough, BC would be restricted similar to XB1's, or, at it's worst, selling PS3 BC games (again).

 

[Deleted member 11852]

Yes, but the same problems emulating PS3 will still exist, and the results, if not incredibly solid, won't find their way into a console, at least not for 'disc in' BC. Is Sony can only get some titles working well enough, BC would be restricted similar to XB1's, or, at it's worst, selling PS3 BC games (again).

Many of the issues emulating Cell are the fundamental differences in architecture, which can be bridged with some custom logic. Do I think Sony will do this? Doubtful, but if they have some spare die space you never know.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

They could also stick a tiny Cell processor in there as a 3D audio engine...

 

[milk]

They could also stick a tiny Cell processor in there as a 3D audio engine...

Isn't it already doing ray tracing?

 

[Deleted member 11852]

They could also stick a tiny Cell processor in there as a 3D audio engine...

Nobody is that dumb. Noting some of Sony's recent patents in this area take a look at how the SPEs operate compared to modern GCN Compute Units. SPEs are in-order processors lacking branch prediction with 256 local KiB SRAM connected by EIB ringbus. Now figure four specialised GCN Compute Units and what hardware are youy lacking to emulate the SPEs? Cell's SPEs was Compute before everybody realised it made sense to have that driving the GPU.

 

[Shortbread]

per ResetEra: Nintendo FY3/2019 Q4 Earnings Release, Switch HW 16.95M, FY3/2020 forecast Switch HW 18M

Nintendo: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/index.html

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|                 |  This Quarter | FY Cumulative          |FY3/19 Forecast|FY3/20 Forecast|
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Net Sales       |   ¥203,265M   | ¥1,200,560M   (~$10.7B)| ¥1,200,000M   | ¥1,250,000M   |
| Operating Income|    ¥29,672M   |  ¥249,701M    (~$2.23B)|   ¥225,000M   |   ¥260,000M   |
| Net Profit      |    ¥25,224M   |  ¥194,009M    (~$1.73B)|   ¥165,000M   |   ¥180,000M   |
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|      Switch     |  This Quarter | FY Cumulative |      LTD      |FY3/19 Forecast|FY3/20 Forecast|
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Hardware (units)|      2.46M    |     16.95M    |     34.74M    |      17.0M    |      18.0M    |
| Software (units)|     23.91M    |    118.55M    |    187.52M    |     110.0M    |     125.0M    |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

 

[Xbat]

Stole this from Resetera posted by ArmGunar.

"- Total PS4 profits ($3.84B) [without FY2018] exceed total PS1 profits ($3.03B), the entire PS2 profits ($2.22B) or offset the total PS3 loss ($-3.54B) !

- The PS4 profits of FY2018 alone ($2.81B) exceed the entire PS2 profits during its 6 years ($2.22B)"

Insane results and for me that just solidifies my opinion that a loss leader strategy is more applicable for next gen than ever before.

 

[Shortbread]

Stole this from Resetera posted by ArmGunar.

"- Total PS4 profits ($3.84B) [without FY2018] exceed total PS1 profits ($3.03B), the entire PS2 profits ($2.22B) or offset the total PS3 loss ($-3.54B) !

- The PS4 profits of FY2018 alone ($2.81B) exceed the entire PS2 profits during its 6 years ($2.22B)"

Insane results and for me that just solidifies my opinion that a loss leader strategy is more applicable for next gen than ever before.

Thread link: https://www.resetera.com/threads/so...8m-gaming-profits-75-yoy-best-fy-ever.113695/
Sony #1: https://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/er/pdf/18q4_sonypre.pdf
Sony #2: https://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/er/pdf/18q4_supplement.pdf

https://twitter.com/x/status/1121660938522746880

https://twitter.com/x/status/1121670219800276995

 

[milk]

Insane results and for me that just solidifies my opinion that a loss leader strategy is more applicable for next gen than ever before.

Why is that your conclusion? Their machine that was the least money losing of them all was also the most profitable one, which is what ultimately sony wants, therefore they will try to lose money on the next one?

 

[Xbat]

Why is that your conclusion? Their machine that was the least money losing of them all was also the most profitable one, which is what ultimately sony wants, therefore they will try to lose money on the next one?

It's not the cost of the hardware(Sony's cost not the retail price) that's making it the most profitable it's PSN and the content delivered there and that's just going to be more so going forward.

It's the momentum they got with Xbox one being $100 more and being the weaker machine. That's not going to happen again.

How can you not see that the Network is the endgame and if you have to take a (hypothetical) 1 billion dollar loss over the first couple of years but guarantee your network is going to make much more over the lifespan of the console it's a no brainier.

Extreme example that.

I don't expect them to make that loss because I believe you can only do so much before diminishing returns becomes a problem. I believe a $200 loss for the first six months is probably the upper limit.

 

[goonergaz]

Thread link: https://www.resetera.com/threads/so...8m-gaming-profits-75-yoy-best-fy-ever.113695/
Sony #1: https://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/er/pdf/18q4_sonypre.pdf
Sony #2: https://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/er/pdf/18q4_supplement.pdf

https://twitter.com/x/status/1121660938522746880

https://twitter.com/x/status/1121670219800276995

Shows the PS4 is legit an awesome console and still selling well at a relatively high price (compared to others at same stage of life).

 

[DieH@rd]

PS4 is a beast™. They actually broke the record for most software sales in a year, PS2 finally got dethroned.

16M forecast for FY19, the same as they originally thought PS4 will achieve in FY18 [which they raised to 17M and then actually over achieved with the help of GoW and Spidey].

I think this year we will finally get a pricedrop [and 7nm APUs]. They already announced in their financial report that they aim to reduce production cost of PS4. Software-wize, TLOU2 in sept-oct and Death Stranding in early 2020 should push sales.

 

[mrcorbo]

It's not the cost of the hardware(Sony's cost not the retail price) that's making it the most profitable it's PSN and the content delivered there and that's just going to be more so going forward.

It's the momentum they got with Xbox one being $100 more and being the weaker machine. That's not going to happen again.

How can you not see that the Network is the endgame and if you have to take a (hypothetical) 1 billion dollar loss over the first couple of years but guarantee your network is going to make much more over the lifespan of the console it's a no brainier.

Extreme example that.

I don't expect them to make that loss because I believe you can only do so much before diminishing returns becomes a problem. I believe a $200 loss for the first six months is probably the upper limit.

Just cause a company can choose to sacrifice profit doesn't mean that they will. They don't have to do this to have a successful console, IMO, so they won't. In fact, a PlayStation console is going to be a success by default unless Sony seriously overplays their hand.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

The question is whether it's better value to sacrifice hardware profitability to gain more market share or not. If you can afford to make a super-compelling box through hardware subsidies and gain 20% more units over the life of your platform, that seems the smart move. It's only if being more lossy on the hardware doesn't improve sales does it not make sense. I think the software sales on PS4 show Sony would have been better off in the long run if it had been significantly cheaper at launch and sold a lot more units.

 

[Xbat]

Just cause a company can choose to sacrifice profit doesn't mean that they will. They don't have to do this to have a successful console, IMO, so they won't. In fact, a PlayStation console is going to be a success by default unless Sony seriously overplays their hand.

They used to do it just because of the licensing fees they got for games sold on there platform, it's now that times ten. Also what you suggesting is the competition is just going to stand still? The way I see it you have to do everything you can to grow your eco system(your brand)

In my opinion the whole reason PS4 is the market leader right now by the massive margin they are is because Microsoft kind of had there PS3 moment with the Xbox one and that's unlikely to happen again.

The profit they make because of every PS4 is more minuscule compared to plus and software.

 

[AlNom]

I think the software sales on PS4 show Sony would have been better off in the long run if it had been significantly cheaper at launch and sold a lot more units.

Indeed, although I wonder if they should avoid getting caught right between the two pricepoints of the competitor and simply go for broke* at the higher end.

i.e. would $399 still be a sweetspot if the competitor is offering a next-gen fidelity @ a more common TV res marketed towards the usually more price-sensitive late adopters so they can Stumble In sooner while there is also a high end SKU for the elite early adopters?

We can discuss 2020 software line-up as well, although certainly MS has a poor track record over their entire history relatively speaking, so this could be a moot hypothetical and nothing to worry about. :V

*inflation aside. *cough*

 

[Shortbread]

Oldies but goldies...
Internal Numbers Updated: https://www.sie.com/en/corporate/data.html

 

[DieH@rd]

Shame they are not providing sales updates for each of their 1st party titles.

 

[mrcorbo]

The question is whether it's better value to sacrifice hardware profitability to gain more market share or not. If you can afford to make a super-compelling box through hardware subsidies and gain 20% more units over the life of your platform, that seems the smart move. It's only if being more lossy on the hardware doesn't improve sales does it not make sense. I think the software sales on PS4 show Sony would have been better off in the long run if it had been significantly cheaper at launch and sold a lot more units.

They can only manufacture so many for launch and over the following months. When you're going to be supply limited anyway, why not get as much money as you can for each one of those units? And you can't then immediately drop (at least not MSRP) once the supply catches up as you will piss off the early adopters.