All purpose Sales and Sales Rumours and Anecdotes [2019 Edition]

Thanks for this, that’s a great chart

The big question will be how much PS4 price can drop...it’s all very easy to say selling quicker doesn’t mean much, but it sold quicker at a much higher price against much stiffer competition.

 

This is not like you.
Your own data shows that the number of consoles sold increased until smartphones got wide spread. Then it started sinking. We don't have to argue this, it has already happened, and hasn't stopped.
Smartphones killed MP3-players, caused a massive contraction of digital camera sales, and reduced sales of dedicated games devices. There is no ambiguity in the data. It's notable that the camera market has tried to respond by essentially giving up on compact cameras, and trying to move the interchangeable lens customers upmarket to increase revenue. Similarly the games industry has seen an almost total loss of portable device sales and a reduction of stationary ones, but has more successfully pushed various monetisation schemes and still see stable total revenues in consoles, basically also pushing fewer people to pay more. We'll find out how sustainable that is over time. Meanwhile Mobile game revenue keeps climbing.

Shifting away from the sales data? I guess most households have digital cameras lying around as well.

Microsoft looked at sales data for the previous generations of stationary consoles and famously predicted that the sales of stationary consoles would grow from 300 million to 400 million this generation but hoped for a massive expansion (a billion!) due to their TV play. Looking at data from a bygone era is useless for predicting the future when the landscape has changed.

 

Huh? Which generation shows a shrinking of home console sales?

80 > 95 > 145 > 210 > 270 > (200+)

 

Well I think it's about that funky maths of yours: 270 > (200+)

 

Feels like smart-phones are taking over everything not only gaming. Other then that the gaming market is growing, but don't know if stationary console gaming is shrinking, will have to see if that 270m will be passed then. The Switch is abit in between in that regard as it is both.

 

But I thought I just explained to you that PS4 didn't sell quicker?

 

Do you think this gen will end up less than 270m -even if you just count the switches used as home consoles!?

Sorry, got caught up in shifty saying quicker, his quote of mine didn’t say quicker just selling so well.

 

Huh? The last entry is the current gen which isn't finished yet, hence in parentheses.

 

And there's always the PS4 Pro Pro that HBRU has been going on about...

 

October 30, 2019

https://www.theverge.com/2019/10/30/20939639/ps4-lifetime-sales-vs-ps1-wii-sony

 

It's highly likely, IMO, that PS4 will have a similar decline as PS3 once PS5 launches.

PS1 and PS2 managed to have long tails because they were easy to cost reduce and continue selling as very low prices. PS3 was never able to achieve this as manufacturing of consoles (semiconductor, materials, labor, etc. costs) don't allow reaching the levels that would convince as many people to buy a PS3 over a PS4 as say a PS1 over a PS2 or a PS2 over a PS3.

PS2 sales in addition were helped by a rather lackluster launch of the PS3. The same mistakes that allowed Microsoft to basically catch up to Sony also allowed the PS2 to do extremely well after the PS3 launch.

IMO, when looking at past data and correlating to current day (mostly in terms of cost reduction), there is very little evidence that PS3 will have a similar long lasting late gen life as PS2.

However, there is one scenario that would allow PS4 to have a similarly long life as PS2 or even PS1. That is if Sony again has a disastrous launch like they did with the PS3, basically having such a bad launch that for the first year or so, most people won't be tempted to buy a PS5.

Regards,
SB

 

Don't think that will ever happen again, 499 or higher.

 

There’s loads of variable to consider IMHO, I’d like to have a go at adding a lot more detail into that graph - to me there’s clear reasons PS1 sales fell quickly, and that’s because PS2 was cheap and played DVDs...PS5 won’t have either of those advantages as UHD is not as popular as DVD was and it won’t be cheap! And PS1 sold ~30m more units from this point in its life if I’m reading that graph right. So that would take PS4 to ~140 if it crashed like PS1 right?

 

That's what people are trying to tell you, the PS2 had a much higher chance to selling 155+ million units, and that in a smaller gaming market back then. Not sure if it played any role, PS2 also had many more (timed) exclusives, GTA3, VC and SA all had half a year to a year timed exclusive deals with Sony/PS2, GTA games where and are the most popular titles. PS2 also saw more iterations of games, GoW 1 and God of war 2, GT3 and later GT4, two metal gear solid iterations, the Ratchet & Clank games, SotC, okami, ico, just the top of my head. The amount of exclusives was much bigger back for the PS2 then the PS4, where the list of big exclusives is rather small, about 10. Also a much wider variety of games. The reason to get a PS2 was quite large. DVD at a cheap price and BC with PSX sure played a role in it's early years too. The jump from 5th to 6th gen was big in graphics, sound, physics etc.
With in mind the gaming market arguably was (much) smaller then, it's quite a feat to surpass the PS2 under the same variables i think. Hence the general conception is that the PS4 won't be selling north of 155m+ units.

 

The PS2 benefitted from some things late gen that PS4 likely won't.

• It was easy to cost reduce down to impulse buy territory for many people.
• Development costs for PS2 era games in general were far lower than PS3 era games, even ignoring the hoops you had to go through to get decent performance out of the PS3.
• PS2 had an extremely large library of 2nd party exclusives.
  • This is unlikely to ever be repeated ever again. While PS4 has some 2nd party exclusives they are just a tiny fraction of how many PS2 had.
• Development of titles on PS2 was a lot cheaper than for PS3, especially at the start of the generation.
  • This was one of the major reasons that many developers continued to release games on PS2 while not releasing games on PS3.
• Sony really screwed up the launch of the PS3 giving many people absolutely no reasons to buy a PS3 over a PS2.
  • I really don't see Sony screwing up that badly for PS4.

Now look at some similarities that PS4 has to PS3 when compared to the PS4 and likely PS5.

• Development costs will rise, but it's more of a gradual increase than the cliff that faced many developers on the PS2 (many of whom never transitioned into the generations after PS2 due to the costs).
  • The practical fallout from this is that most developers immediately moved development to PS4 mostly abandoning the PS3. I don't see things being any different for the PS4 to PS5 transition.
• Cost to manufacture isn't going down as rapidly as it did during the PS2 generation which was already slower than the PS1 generation.
  • Add to that the cost to manufacture floor is significantly higher than it was for the PS2 generation.
  • PS4 will suffer from this just like the PS3.
• There was a lot of effort put in to remaster some of the more popular titles from the PS3 generation for the PS4 generation.
  • Again, negating some of the reasons to get a PS3 after PS4 came out. And we'll likely see something similar when PS5 comes out depending on...
• How will Sony approach BC on PS5?
  • If they do like MS and enhance BC titles then there may not be a need to remaster many games.
  • While PS3 had BC at launch, the cost of the console was so prohibitive combined with a lackluster launch that it was basically irrelevant.
    • So BC on PS3 had no impact on PS2 sales.
  • But the time PS3 was attractive enough that people started wanting to buy it, BC was removed.
    • So again, BC had no potential to impact PS2 sales.
  • So if BC on PS5 is good and potentially even enhances titles ala Xbox, there's even less reason to buy a PS4 over a PS5.
• Sony spent a lot of money to advertise the PS2 as being a machine for the whole family. Something Sony decided not to do with both the PS3 and PS4.
  • This is relevant as you go lower in price you get into family buying territory.
  • And this generation, Nintendo has done a far better job at advertising the Switch as a kid friendly console.
    • Basically once the PS5 comes out people looking for a 200-250 USD range console are going to predominantly be families.
    • That means those dollars are more likely to go to a console that is still heavily advertised and still heavily supported.
    • We can already see that effect with NSW sales rising while PS4 sales continue to decline.
    • Basically once PS5 comes out are people that want a CHEAP console going to prefer
      • A console that is still being heavily promoted (NSW) with many titles in active development coming to it.
      • A console that has a replacement on the market (PS4) that will see a tiny fraction of new games (if any) released for it.

Anything is possible. And while it is possible that PS4 may eventually outsell the PS2, I just don't see any evidence that would point to that being something that is likely to happen.

Regards,
SB

 

Can't imagine people who wanted a console hasn't got one yet this generation.

I don't think they're expanding the market either.

Do the software sales volumes paint a similar story?

 

There are still millions that will sell. However, I think the price is what makes the real difference. When a console gets as cheap as PS2 did, you almost end up getting one anyway. I think anyone buying a PS4 is looking for an investment of some sort, so multiple games, whereas some people would have bought a PS2 for one or two titles. Even just SingStar and the 400 variations of it. I can easily a see a good 20 million casual purchases making the difference. I mean, casual players were ~100 million strong when it came to Wii. I don't think PS4 is reaching these people (neither is NSW at the moment because of price, but if it ever becomes really cheap, which a TV-only box could, it's gimmickry may pick up those casuals instead of PS4).

 

Don't forget, the big one:

• Almost 20 years of economic inflation.

It's running 40-48% since PS2's launch, depending on your location, and nextgen is still a year away. Anybody expecting PS4 to ever be as cheap as PS2 is nuts.

 

Developers will have around double the reason to keep developing for PS4 (ie PS4 figures around double that of PS3)

Whilst this is true, I believe there's still some reduction available for PS4 and therefore potential

I'm not sure people buy a console because it's BC, ie it won't stop people buying the cheaper PS4 over PS5 - rather it helps the sale of PS5 to those already owning PS4...therefore it's not directly impacting PS4 sales if PS5 has BC IMHO.

Or it could just be that (looking at the graph) both consoles are following normal trajectories!?

No, but then people have more money anyway so the next drop might be a sweet spot for some who have been holding off. But it's interesting you mention price, because PS4 (as I said before) it's sold really well considering how much more it was compared to PS2.

Also I'd ask what big hitters PS2 had once PS3 came out? Did it have a 'The Last of Us 2?

 

I'll also add this chart into the mix;



This seems to show that despite PS2 having a partial launch year disadvantage the gap from that initial first year is about what it is today (if not bigger), so surely it has sold quicker after all? There's certainly very little in it, and worth adding PS4 was supply constrained at the start whereas PS2 (having a staggered launch) probably did not suffer as badly?

It does also show that PS2 was a beast...I still expect to see over 135m for PS4.