All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+

[goonergaz]

I would argue that price has been a factor. Keep in mind that the XBOne was $100 more expensive initially. And I would further argue that brand loyalty has kept the margin from being even more lopsided. Also, we only have to look to the last generation to see Sony making some of the same mistakes with the PS3 that MS made with the XBOne. So similar results should have been expected (and I did expect them).

Could be a factor, but launches aligned - altho PS3 sold a bit slower than X360 it sold at a much higher price and alongside the fastest selling console ever.

The only surprise for me has been how well the PS4 has been selling. It looks like there was a lot of pent-up demand for a next-gen console due to last-gen's extended length

The X360 had been out for longer than PS3.

 

[goonergaz]

I don't fully understand why selling more with competition is better than selling less with none. And I also think it's possible to sell significantly less than your competition and still be successful, as long as you sell *enough*. We have to be careful here to not treat these sales numbers like a scoreboard.

I don't understand why you don't understand!? If there is no competition there are no other options for the consumer, if oranges were the only fruit... (etc)

 

[Rangers]

Perhaps comparing the sales to the 360 is using a low bar? Don't the sales figures generally show PS3 outselling 360 when you adjust for them launching a year plus apart? I think the 360 felt like a run away success because it launched so early with no competition. Early PS3 sales were generally considered dreadful but they're supposedly better than 360? I can't rationalize those two perceptions.

Overall PS3 sort of tied 360 worldwide despite launching a year later, so it sold slightly better worldwide per year. However this is over 7 years, so the difference per year is small.

360 did not sell that well it's first year, PS2 would have been dominant, so I'm not sure how it was a run away success it's first year. Maybe it felt that way in mindshare? Which will be the case with any lone next gen console on the market.

 

[Phil]

One view point is that a sale is a sale, irregardless in what condition it is sold. I guess my point was that the X360 sold very well. It did so, because it enjoyed a very healthy headstart and the PS3, once it launched, was filled with problems, pushing back its date and resulting in a very high price. That reinforced X360 sales, at least in the price sensitive NA market.

The other view point is that the XB1 is selling well too, if we compare it directly with the X360. That is undisputed. But the fact that it has a direct competitor right next to it, selling a lot better, makes the outlook more bleak, because they are competing for the same market. You see, when the X360 was selling well at the same point within its early cycle, people bought into it because they were confident it would continue to sell well. In the XB1's case, it might be selling well, but people hearing that PS4 is pulling away in sales in every market is reinforcing the PS4 as the "main platform" to be on. Especially with social integration and online multiplayer, you want to have the console that links your social groups. The more PS4 sells and pulls ahead, the more it will be seen as the console to get. This won't matter to brand loyalists (the folks who already bought their console early) but it will matter more and more as we deep further into the casual market - the people that buy consoles for their kids, or play on a less regular basis. Success leads to success. Bad publicity and perception to even more.

At the end of the day, I firmly believe the XB1 will be successfull enough in its own right. Perhaps the Xbox brand has been viewed too optimistic - the X360 only as successfull as it was due to mistakes Sony got themselves into with the PS3 (late launch, expensive hardware resulting in high price, Bluray integration). Head-to-head at similar price points and equal launch dates and the PS perhaps was always going to pull away. I also don't see the market expanding with the exception of new regions (China?) - so the console getting closer to market saturation quicker is the one that is going to gain the most sales and marketshare. I expect the XB1 to trail off eventually, dropping further behind. NA is their most important market, so I expect Microsoft to remain aggressive to eek out what they can. The market share difference is still small, so it could go either way. The X360 has a huge following in NA, so there are still lots of potential XB1 sales on the table. Much will depend on how sales will continue and how much the overal headline "PS4 outselling Xb1" will influence those X360 to upgrade to a XB1 or a PS4.

 

[Rangers]

From EA:

With regards to the market, we expect the console transition to continue at a rapid pace, and
another 22 million units to be sold this calendar year, adding to the 27 million units in place at
the end of calendar 2014. This is much faster growth than in previous generations. Illustrating
how far the transition has already come, approximately four out of every five copies of Battlefield
Hardline sold for consoles were for XBox One or PS4.

Full game downloads on current-generation consoles are now over 20% for a
newly-launched game, and we’re seeing higher percentages for our catalog titles.
As a reminder, we count bundled games as physical sales, regardless of whether
it’s a disk or a download code in the box with the console. We’ve seen a
dramatic increase in PC downloads since 2010 and we believe the same forces
that drove this on the PC are at play on the latest generation of consoles.
.

http://investor.ea.com/results.cfm

 

[MrFox]

Full game downloads on current-generation consoles are now over 20% for a
newly-launched game, and we’re seeing higher percentages for our catalog titles.
As a reminder, we count bundled games as physical sales, regardless of whether
it’s a disk or a download code in the box with the console. We’ve seen a
dramatic increase in PC downloads since 2010 and we believe the same forces
that drove this on the PC are at play on the latest generation of consoles.

Uh. The same forces which are: shitty online DRM for single player games, activation code, and anti-used games DRM, that makes the disc version completely pointless on PC?

Can't blame them for trying, but I'm not seeing this on consoles. Yet.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

PS3 were getting trounced in the NPDs and, since those were the most reliably available numbers, that largely drove the narrative.

I think NPD were the only regular (monthly) figures back then but NPD represented a single market and subsequently more direct data for worldwide sales has become available which has allowed charts like the following (posted earlier by DrJay24, crediting ZhugeEX on GAF) to show relative performance of consoles for the first 50 months (four years) of their lives.

This shows the PS3 first 14 months selling about as much as 360 did in it's first 14 months. Of course the 360 had no [then] next gen competition when it launched and was a very slick package. When the PS3 launched not only was it monstrously expensive, the firmware and OS were in a very poor state and it had entrenched competition in the 360 which was both cheaper and had a lot more quality software.

The only console to have had worse sales than the 360 was the Wii U. This is what I mean when I say comparing Xbox One sales to 360 sales is a low bar.

Comparing XBOne to 360 seems valid as the 360's sales are pretty much what you could expect a ceiling for the XBOne to be.

I guess that depends on what Microsoft's expectations were/are. If they were only aiming to beat 360 sales then they should be very happy right now Have a prize, Microsoft, you're whipping the sales of the second worst selling consoles of the last three generations - that console was also yours

I don't buy it - that is this was their expectation. I very much doubt Sony went into each generation not expecting to sell many more than the last generation. I doubt Microsoft did/do either.

 

[mrcorbo]

Could be a factor, but launches aligned - altho PS3 sold a bit slower than X360 it sold at a much higher price and alongside the fastest selling console ever.

I don't know how valid it is to see the Wii as direct competion to the PS3 or 360. I'm not sure how many of the people who bought the Wii would have, without that option, bought a PS3 or 360 instead. And among that group, I suspect there were many that actually ended up being Wii-S3 or Wii-60 owners. Do you disagree?

The X360 had been out for longer than PS3.

Yes. And? What does the fact that the 360 was out a year longer have to do with the exceptionally high sales of the PS4 being due to pent-up demand for a new console?

I don't understand why you don't understand!? If there is no competition there are no other options for the consumer, if oranges were the only fruit... (etc)

I don't think you understand what it is I don't understand. If there is no other competition, than would that not be an *advantage* to the console selling under that condition? Therefore wouldn't another console selling more with (strong) competition be a better performance?

 

[mrcorbo]

You see, when the X360 was selling well at the same point within its early cycle, people bought into it because they were confident it would continue to sell well. In the XB1's case, it might be selling well, but people hearing that PS4 is pulling away in sales in every market is reinforcing the PS4 as the "main platform" to be on. Especially with social integration and online multiplayer, you want to have the console that links your social groups. The more PS4 sells and pulls ahead, the more it will be seen as the console to get. This won't matter to brand loyalists (the folks who already bought their console early) but it will matter more and more as we deep further into the casual market - the people that buy consoles for their kids, or play on a less regular basis. Success leads to success. Bad publicity and perception to even more.

I agree with most of this, save the bolded part. I don't think the mass market are very aware of the sales. I think for the most part you're looking at price, content and "what console do my friends/family have" as the primary drivers of console sales. That last one is important and can have the effect of people buying the console that the most people have already bought. I still think that if a platform holder can be strong on the first two, though, they can overcome this to a degree.

At the end of the day, I firmly believe the XB1 will be successfull enough in its own right. Perhaps the Xbox brand has been viewed too optimistic - the X360 only as successfull as it was due to mistakes Sony got themselves into with the PS3 (late launch, expensive hardware resulting in high price, Bluray integration).

The 360 wasn't perfectly executed either. Manufacturing difficulties and holding to a high price point weren't exactly helpful to its sales.

Head-to-head at similar price points and equal launch dates and the PS perhaps was always going to pull away.

Yep.

I also don't see the market expanding with the exception of new regions (China?) - so the console getting closer to market saturation quicker is the one that is going to gain the most sales and marketshare. I expect the XB1 to trail off eventually, dropping further behind. NA is their most important market, so I expect Microsoft to remain aggressive to eek out what they can. The market share difference is still small, so it could go either way. The X360 has a huge following in NA, so there are still lots of potential XB1 sales on the table. Much will depend on how sales will continue and how much the overal headline "PS4 outselling Xb1" will influence those X360 to upgrade to a XB1 or a PS4.

I think my main issue from the beginning has been that, based on what we know right now, there's not enough information to predict which way the XBOne's sales will go from here. No more than we would have been able to predict the PS3's eventual sales based on it's sales performance at this point in it's sales history.

 

[mrcorbo]

I guess that depends on what Microsoft's expectations were/are. If they were only aiming to beat 360 sales then they should be very happy right now Have a prize, Microsoft, you're whipping the sales of the second worst selling consoles of the last three generations - that console was also yours

I don't buy it - that is this was their expectation. I very much doubt Sony went into each generation not expecting to sell many more than the last generation. I doubt Microsoft did/do either.

See above.

 

[Phil]

I agree with most of this, save the bolded part. I don't think the mass market are very aware of the sales. I think for the most part your looking at price, content and "what console do my friends/family have" as the primary drivers of console sales. That last one is important and can have the effect of people buying the console that the most people have already bought. I still think that if a platform holder can be strong on the first two, though, they can overcome this to a degree.

I agree that the mass market probably isn't aware of it on a concious level. They are influenced though - by 1.) the more popular / stronger selling console reaching more people - so statistically, you are likely to know (or heard of) more people getting that stronger selling console and 2.) stores recommending the stronger selling console by default and the logic "if it is selling well, more people are likely to be happy with it if all else is equal".

Competent sales-people are wishful thinking. Unless you are in a dedicated gaming store, the most average consumer electronics store will simply go with "popularity" and not risk getting into discussions/arguments when recommending the weaker or less popular console because it may attract a more niche market. In the case of XB1 and PS4 - they are so similar; sames games, similar exclusives, but better hardware on the PS4 (on paper) and better sales. It's a win/win - a no-brainer to recommend it. I'm willing to bet the majority of stores will go with that as well, no matter if we like it or not, if it's true or not. Good sales is a very powerful argument.

 

[Rikimaru]

In the case of XB1 and PS4 - they are so similar; sames games, similar exclusives, but better hardware on the PS4 (on paper) and better sales.

PS4 being more powerful proved by pretty much every game.

I do not think there is a single reason to buy Xbox One outside NA (well aside exclusives). Halo brand is not as popular in Eu as in NA, and PS4 getting every niche japanese game + own exclusives.

The only reason 360 was popular around the world is piracy.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

Halo brand is not as popular in Eu as in NA, and PS4 getting every niche japanese game + own exclusives.

Europe had space marines 500 years ago, it's so passé.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

The only reason 360 was popular around the world is piracy.

A pretty stupid and ignorant thing to say. Maybe it was heavily pirated around your neck of the woods, but on overall the software sales were very healthy.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

That graph is quite showing. XB1 is mostly parallel to XB360, just with a higher initial starting count. Hence XB1 has the same rate of growth so far as XB360, in line with PS3 also. Then you have the runaway platforms, first PS2 which has a significant ramping over time, and then Wii and PS4. Broadly speaking they can be grouped into unsuccessful (Wii U), successful (XB360, PS3, XB1), and runaway success (Wii, PS4), measuring success against the industry standards.

 

[Rikimaru]

A pretty stupid and ignorant thing to say. Maybe it was heavily pirated around your neck of the woods, but on overall the software sales were very healthy.

Do you have data by region?

 

[dobwal]

I guess that depends on what Microsoft's expectations were/are. If they were only aiming to beat 360 sales then they should be very happy right now Have a prize, Microsoft, you're whipping the sales of the second worst selling consoles of the last three generations - that console was also yours

I don't buy it - that is this was their expectation. I very much doubt Sony went into each generation not expecting to sell many more than the last generation. I doubt Microsoft did/do either.

Its like going to the Olympics for the 100m race. You've been the third fastest runner for the last 8 years. You hope for the gold this time but do you cry over or relish your silver medal with you running your best time ever?

Any of these manufactuers would love and hope to be market leader, but I doubt that any of them solely measure success based on being market leader or not. More likely success is based on dollars and cents. I imagine MS would be extremely happy if the Xbox One as a platform turns out to be handsomely profitable.

Ultimately, the producing and selling of a console platform is a business not a contest.

What platform as a business would you rather own? iOS or Android? The one that has 70-80% of the market share or the other that has 70-80% of the profits.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

Broadly speaking they can be grouped into unsuccessful (Wii U), successful (XB360, PS3, XB1), and runaway success (Wii, PS4), measuring success against the industry standards.

The PS2 actually looks as though it charted lower than Xbox One for about 11 months, then three months of being parallel then 14 months in and boom. This would coincide with Sony ramping production, PS2 launched in Japan in March, USA in October and Europe in November but unless you pre-ordered (or were lucky) they were hard to come by for about six months in Europe.

Of course they're thirteen years apart and nobody bought a One as a cheap DVD player. Probably.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

Ultimately, the producing and selling of a console platform is a business not a contest. What platform as a business would you rather own? iOS or Android? The one that has 70-80% of the market share or the other that has 70-80% of the profits.

I completely agree but the economics of profits of phones and tablets are a far cry from consoles. Apple make 30+% profit on each phone sold, then 30% of every penny the user spends through the app/book/music/video stores - or in-app subscriptions. Organised crime must be kicking themselves for not thinking of this racket first. And you don't need Apple hardware to buy music from iTunes because it's standard AAC. Why are some developers reporting making more money from the smaller iOS market than the larger Android market? When it comes to monetisation, it's not always about size it seems.

The console market is like a reverse captive audience, first you have to get people to buy the console (profit margin unknown) then you have to get them to buy stuff for it. So you need to sell a lot of consoles just to catch the few who spend regularly. It continues to surprise me that, at the last count (I saw) 360 and PS3 had worldwide sales of around 80m each and yet even a runaway game like GTA V sold a mere 15-16m on each platform - so about one in six owners bought it. The number of sales relative to the user base of the console market seems freakishly low given entertainment is something that people are usually willing to spend money on. If your user base is low, it's that more difficult to make decent profits over the long haul given you are still expected to invest in exclusives titles, develop your consoles capabilities and maintain the ecosystem (servers etc).

 

[MrFox]

Nice, the graph really shows that all three current gen had an amazing launch availability compared to previous gen.

That knee at 14 months is surprising... Both xboxes have that knee, and none of the japanese consoles have such a strong one, regardless of success or failure.