All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+

[goonergaz]

I don't know how valid it is to see the Wii as direct competion to the PS3 or 360. I'm not sure how many of the people who bought the Wii would have, without that option, bought a PS3 or 360 instead. And among that group, I suspect there were many that actually ended up being Wii-S3 or Wii-60 owners. Do you disagree?

Regardless the PS3 still launched alongside the established and much cheaper X360. People may also have been waiting for the PS3 but decided to go Wii60.

Yes. And? What does the fact that the 360 was out a year longer have to do with the exceptionally high sales of the PS4 being due to pent-up demand for a new console?

You said "The only surprise for me has been how well the PS4 has been selling. It looks like there was a lot of pent-up demand for a next-gen console due to last-gen's extended length".
Which seems odd to me, you are suggesting the PS4 demand is so high because of 'pent-up demand' - but the X360 had been out longer and had better support for the last couple years (software wise) so in theory I would have said any 'pent-up demand' would be for the next Xbox.

I don't think you understand what it is I don't understand. If there is no other competition, than would that not be an *advantage* to the console selling under that condition? Therefore wouldn't another console selling more with (strong) competition be a better performance?

This seems to me the opposite of what you originally said which was; "I don't fully understand why selling more with competition is better than selling less with none."

 

[Deleted member 11852]

It's hard to say what the actual figures are, but considering how long ago the consoles launched, consoles breaking, people owning multiple consoles or abandoning them altogether etc., I wouldn't be surprised if the active user base at the launch of GTA 5 for both of these consoles were not much higher than 50%.

You think only around 35m (sorry can't dig up the approximate or actual worldwide figures for 2013) 360 and PS3 consoles were actively used when GTA V launched? Why do you think this? I don't have evidence to contradict and it would explain a lot. An interesting metric, which I doubt we'll ever get, would be the number of active consoles being used. We've seen both Apple and Google report similar for their mobile OS ecosystems.

E3 2016? If they don't surprise with a new handheld this year, I think they will have really blown it.

They've just launched the New 3DS and I for one would be astonished if we get new Nintendo handheld hardware this year.

 

[Goodtwin]

I don't really see the number of X1's sold being the problem for the Xbox brand, its the fact that Microsoft cant seem to make the division profitable even when they have great market share. Its the reason why we here rumblings of Microsoft potentially selling off the division.

As for Wii U's sales target for the upcoming fiscal year, I think it makes sense. Their big titles like Smash Bros and Mario Kart are maintaining a year over year monthly sales increases, and the Christmas holiday will always result in a good couple months of sales. Lets face it, Mario Kart 8 and Smash Bros are still going to move units come November and December, especially if the price is reduced. I think Wii U needs to be at $199.00 to sell. There is still a market out there that will buy a Wii U when the cost of entry gets low enough, and I think $199 is that threshold. Not that its ever going toe to toe with the PS4, but could still manage Gamecube like success if they get the price down. This year does have some titles, we will see how Splatoon does, and then there is Xenoblade X, Star Fox, Yoshi, Mario Maker, Devils Third, and some unannounced titles that will release this year. So combined with the existing lineup, there is plenty to enjoy on Wii U, but the cost of entry is obviously still to high for the majority of the consumer base.

 

[mrcorbo]

Regardless the PS3 still launched alongside the established and much cheaper X360.

And launching at a higher price vs. stronger competition clearly hurt its early sales as compared to the PS2's. I'm not really clear what it is you are arguing.

• People are "concerned" about the XBOne's sales.
• XBOne is selling better than 360 launch-aligned.
• I say XBOne's sales aren't *that* bad. Not good. Not even OK. Just not a complete disaster.

That's the argument. That's the context you seem to be missing.

You said "The only surprise for me has been how well the PS4 has been selling. It looks like there was a lot of pent-up demand for a next-gen console due to last-gen's extended length".
Which seems odd to me, you are suggesting the PS4 demand is so high because of 'pent-up demand' - but the X360 had been out longer and had better support for the last couple years (software wise) so in theory I would have said any 'pent-up demand' would be for the next Xbox.

It would be for both. Most rational people don't restrict their choice of console to the manufacturer they owned prior (minus BC capability) and I don't think the PS3 being a year younger caused it to be any less stale as a platform towards the end of the generation. I believe that the pent-up demand is stimulating the sales of both, but the PS4 has been the better option of the two so people have bought more of them than they have bought XBOnes.

This seems to me the opposite of what you originally said which was; "I don't fully understand why selling more with competition is better than selling less with none."

It was being argued that the XBOne's higher sales against direct competition aren't as good as 360's lower sales without direct competition which I didn't understand, so I said so. I quoted the post I was responding to, so this should have been pretty clear even if you weren't following the whole thread.

Are you just so geared up for console warrior BS that you see it even when it isn't there?

 

[mrcorbo]

I don't really see the number of X1's sold being the problem for the Xbox brand, its the fact that Microsoft cant seem to make the division profitable even when they have great market share. Its the reason why we here rumblings of Microsoft potentially selling off the division

E&D division is more than XBox. Hard to say what the XBox business is doing in isolation if MS don't specifically report it.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Once their sales numbers consistently come in lower than the X360's then you might actually have a leg to stand on with regards to that. Until, then, as I've said it's entirely too premature to call it anything remotely resembling a failure.

My point basically is that those 7-9 year old figures are almost useless as a yard stick. You don't compare iPhone 6 sales to iPhone 1 sales. And yes I know 360 is the direct predecessor to the One, but you can't just ignore the time factor altogether. I do understand that at some point it has to fall under the 360 cumulative figures for my view to be reality, but we'll have to wait a bit for that. Good launch numbers for the One + weak start for the 360 makes it so. I'm just not convinced that the One has a great boost in store for the later years, but of course this is just speculation.

You think only around 35m (sorry can't dig up the approximate or actual worldwide figures for 2013) 360 and PS3 consoles were actively used when GTA V launched? Why do you think this? I don't have evidence to contradict and it would explain a lot. An interesting metric, which I doubt we'll ever get, would be the number of active consoles being used. We've seen both Apple and Google report similar for their mobile OS ecosystems.

I think the consoles were around at 80M by then, so I basically said I believe it to be not much more than 40M, who knows maybe it could be 50M. I've mentioned some of the reasons already. Time in general causes many things. Consoles break, gets abandoned. One owner having multiple consoles etc. Of course what constitutes as active console is quite hard to quantify too. Does it matter how much or what kind of use the machine is getting?

Other reasons for the attach rates to be lower than some might expect are for example used games market, borrowing copies with friends and in general the user base just being varied. I'm sure not everyone likes games such as GTA.

 

[Goodtwin]

E&D division is more than XBox. Hard to say what the XBox business is doing in isolation if MS don't specifically report it.

http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/...at-microsoft-could-sell-off-its-xbox-division


Its safe to assume its not a money maker or Bill Gates wouldn't support selling it off.

 

[mrcorbo]

http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/...at-microsoft-could-sell-off-its-xbox-division


Its safe to assume its not a money maker or Bill Gates wouldn't support selling it off.

No. It really isn't. MS could want to sell a profitable XBox business if they think the money they are spending to create those profits could be spent instead on another business which would make them even more profits.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

Its safe to assume its not a money maker or Bill Gates wouldn't support selling it off.

The Xbox business could be making a lot of money (unlikely or Microsoft would be reporting this) but if executives believe the time and resource occupied could be more profitable if applied elsewhere then that's reason enough to sell/close a division.

E.g. if you have 500 people running a business unit making $100m a year but you work out by deploying them on something else they could make $250m a year, then you have to consider getting out of your current business. Obviously it's never this straight black and white, some businesses are part of larger strategic operations and their departure may undermine longer term strategies but yes, companies drop profitable ventures all the time. Profit is relative.

edit: beaten by mrcorbo

 

[MrFox]

No. It really isn't. MS could want to sell a profitable XBox business if they think the money they are spending to create those profits could be spent instead on another business which would make them even more profits.

Very true. Also vice-versa, even if it were losing money, it could still be important to maintain the xbox division to prevent competitors from using their dominance of the living room, which could be in the way of other parts of MS business. (is it?)

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/...at-microsoft-could-sell-off-its-xbox-division

Its safe to assume its not a money maker or Bill Gates wouldn't support selling it off.

You realize you're being ridiculous, right? Bill Gates gave unwavering support to his CEO, which is exactly what he should do. The question could have been if Bill Gates would support Nadella putting resources into building at time machine and Bill's answer would have been the same. He also then went on to state that they're bringing PC, Windows and Xbox gaming closer together. Which could be an indication that MS is very open to selling off whatever remains of the division that is responsible for the hardware behind the Xbox and has nothing at all to do with the Xbox as a platform, app, service, etc.

So there's two takeaways. One, it could be a completely innocuous comment giving full support to his CEO to do whatever he wants, or Two, it could actually be an Xbox specific comment that has nothing to do with MS leaving the "console" business, but rather further revealing their vision for transforming it.

 

[McHuj]

They've just launched the New 3DS and I for one would be astonished if we get new Nintendo handheld hardware this year.

The problem is that their own projections for 3DS is lower for the next year than previous year without the New 3DS. The New 3DS isn't going to do anything nor will it get any significant software support.This is DSi part 2.

 

[mrcorbo]

Very true. Also vice-versa, even if it were losing money, it could still be important to maintain the xbox division to prevent competitors from using their dominance of the living room, which could be in the way of other parts of MS business. (is it?)

True. I think Xbox Live Marketplace is a pretty big deal for them, though. It is what they want the Windows Store to be, but so far they have been completely unable to replicate XBLM's success with their PC or phone platform. I'm not sure how eager they would be to dump their only successful digital media sales platform.

 

[Goodtwin]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/adamhartung/2014/02/18/microsoft-should-give-xbox-one-to-nintendo/

The Xbox hasn't been a profitable business venture for Microsoft, I think its common knowledge at this point.

http://www.neowin.net/news/report-microsofts-xbox-division-has-lost-nearly-3-billion-in-10-years

 

[Deleted member 11852]

The problem is that their own projections for 3DS is lower for the next year than previous year without the New 3DS. The New 3DS isn't going to do anything nor will it get any significant software support.This is DSi part 2.

Well I don't have your crystal ball focussing on Nintendo's future but my reading of the hardware reviews was that the 3D is now viable for people who don't want hold their head within a 4 degree horizontal angle relative to the screen which is kind of what you have to do on the previous 3DS handhelds.

As for support, ins't it a bit too early to call that? I believe Xenoblade Chronicles and Monster Hunter 4 supports the new hardware and how many games will get support patched in? You'll know Nintendo will do everything they can to try and sell the hardware. Plus nascent support is offered by any titled that supported the Circle Pad Pro adaptor. If you 3DS breaks, picking up the new thing looks a better option than waiting for a handheld Nintendo haven't announced.

 

[goonergaz]

And launching at a higher price vs. stronger competition clearly hurt its early sales as compared to the PS2's. I'm not really clear what it is you are arguing.

• People are "concerned" about the XBOne's sales.
• XBOne is selling better than 360 launch-aligned.
• I say XBOne's sales aren't *that* bad. Not good. Not even OK. Just not a complete disaster.

That's the argument. That's the context you seem to be missing.



It would be for both. Most rational people don't restrict their choice of console to the manufacturer they owned prior (minus BC capability) and I don't think the PS3 being a year younger caused it to be any less stale as a platform towards the end of the generation. I believe that the pent-up demand is stimulating the sales of both, but the PS4 has been the better option of the two so people have bought more of them than they have bought XBOnes.



It was being argued that the XBOne's higher sales against direct competition aren't as good as 360's lower sales without direct competition which I didn't understand, so I said so. I quoted the post I was responding to, so this should have been pretty clear even if you weren't following the whole thread.

Are you just so geared up for console warrior BS that you see it even when it isn't there?

No need to get personal, it's not my fault you were not clear stating "The only surprise for me has been how well the PS4 has been selling. It looks like there was a lot of pent-up demand for a next-gen console due to last-gen's extended length" clearly implies you're talking about one console why not just say 'this gen' and make it clearer.

Anyway, I'm out - I'm not looking at console warrior BS but clearly there's several ways to interpret the XBO sales and when you look at what MS have had to do to try and stay in touch with the PS4 it's hard to conclude the XBO sales are a success. FTR I don't think they are a disaster either.

 

[mrcorbo]

No need to get personal, it's not my fault you were not clear stating "The only surprise for me has been how well the PS4 has been selling. It looks like there was a lot of pent-up demand for a next-gen console due to last-gen's extended length" clearly implies you're talking about one console why not just say 'this gen' and make it clearer.

Anyway, I'm out - I'm not looking at console warrior BS but clearly there's several ways to interpret the XBO sales and when you look at what MS have had to do to try and stay in touch with the PS4 it's hard to conclude the XBO sales are a success. FTR I don't think they are a disaster either.

I wasn't intending to "get personal". But I didn't think any of what I was saying was all that unclear. I *am* surprised by how well the PS4 has been selling. It is the outlier by historical precedent. The sales of everything else can be compared to another product with similar characteristics. IMO, the PS4 up to now has been selling much better than anything comparable because I don't consider the Wii comparable.

 

[Rangers]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/adamhartung/2014/02/18/microsoft-should-give-xbox-one-to-nintendo/

The Xbox hasn't been a profitable business venture for Microsoft, I think its common knowledge at this point.

http://www.neowin.net/news/report-microsofts-xbox-division-has-lost-nearly-3-billion-in-10-years

I've stopped even attempting to keep up, but from my faded memory, original Xbox lost money ($4 billion is in my mind?), 360 as a whole was probably (almost surely?) profitable IIRC. Xbox One, I dont know, but I'd doubt it's really losing money given the hardware (same for PS4 this time around), even at this early stage let alone later more generally profitable stages, and there's been nothing from the financials to point to XBO losing money that I know of either.

Of course you can always use the 'ol "but they could make MORE money doing something else" argument. But MS has projects that surely lose a lot more money than Xbox (like Bing in the past, Kin, whatever) And so on and so forth.

Oh and you cannot use "gaming division" profit's/losses to suss out Xbox profits/losses like that (old) Neowin article. AFAIK the "Xbox" division has been turning nice profits lately, is the Noewin article going to update? Of course not, people will just claim it's other parts of the division making money. But even the Neowin article shows what I'm saying, RE: 360 as a whole project was almost certainly profitable IMO.

Total Xbox from the beginning (2001)? again impossible to say but I'd guess it's nearing break even at least. But that's really just a wild guess.

Also:

Sony's gaming division lost even more money in the same time period, with a lost of almost $5 billion.

So are people calling for Sony to quit gaming by the same flawed/old Neowin/Ben Cousins analysis? I dont really see that...

I will say, I core gaming is never going to be super profitable IMO. It's just not it's nature. I learned that by looking at Sony financials during PS2, even the most popular console ever was not spectacularly profitable. So, what hope others, so to speak...profits can be made, but they're not going to be outsized. Obviously MS and Sony have learned apparently this gen to go with mild hardware that's likely at least break even from the start. That will help, but it's still not going to lead to huge profits or anything. The main reason core gaming wont be super profitable is the hardware always is difficult to make a profit on because there's always pressure for price cuts, and that triple A software development in general is a low profit business because it's so manpower intensive.

Does Microsoft or Sony want to be in a business where runaway profits are impossible and mild profitability is the best that can be hoped for? Well, that's up to them I guess, and in MS case what synergies they think it has. Apple probably doesn't...

 

[Entropy]

Does Microsoft or Sony want to be in a business where runaway profits are impossible and mild profitability is the best that can be hoped for? Well, that's up to them I guess, and in MS case what synergies they think it has. Apple probably doesn't...

The above is key.
Sony did see synergies with the launch of Blu-Ray, but in the current technological landscape their options to energise other business interests using a home console seem less obvious. I'm sure there are some synergies, and it gives them some options going forward, so odds are good for a PS5 since the PS4 is a profitable business in its own right.
Microsoft - I honestly can't see their interest in investing in an industry with limited to no growth potential. They had hopes of how consoles could grow in importance, but those hopes are crushed by now. From a financial standpoint, Microsoft can easily keep churning out consoles if they deem it to be of strategic importance. But the benefits Nadella quoted for keeping the Xbox around were limp indeed, and playing second (or, in some markets, third) fiddle in a non-growth industry just doesn't make much sense to them. Better to invest their money to make their Windows to Mobile efforts stronger, or battling Unix in server space, defending their administrative monopolies, simply playing the financial investment game, or whatever really as long as there is substantial growth potential. And stationary consoles just don't offer that.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

Sony did see synergies with the launch of Blu-Ray, but in the current technological landscape their options to energise other business interests using a home console seem less obvious.

PlayStation is an entertainment platform and Sony produce, publish and distribute games, music, movies and TV shows. Sony also make a ton of professional movie production equipment in addition to conventional equipment like cameras. I can't think of a company more perfectly positioned at the intersection of different crossways of entertainment than Sony. But as has been discussed before, Sony are likely weighed down with legacy publishing and distribution agreements that prevent them from making the most of this potential.