All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+

[Globalisateur]

Credit to ZhugeEX on GAF.

Hmm. I think the last (estimated) shipment of PS4 is missing. I don't think PS4 shipped ~25 millions already, even estimated. I think it's more like ~23 millions (max estimated).

 

[DieH@rd]

That graph is quite showing. XB1 is mostly parallel to XB360, just with a higher initial starting count. Hence XB1 has the same rate of growth so far as XB360, in line with PS3 also. Then you have the runaway platforms, first PS2 which has a significant ramping over time, and then Wii and PS4. Broadly speaking they can be grouped into unsuccessful (Wii U), successful (XB360, PS3, XB1), and runaway success (Wii, PS4), measuring success against the industry standards.

In the US Xbone managed to sell more on launch, but after launch months it started tracking lower than X360 [even after they dropped Kinect]. Don't know how situation changed during 2014 holiday season when MS dropped the price [after Destiny, during which they gave everyone "free game of choice" ].

 

[dobwal]

I completely agree but the economics of profits of phones and tablets are a far cry from consoles. Apple make 30+% profit on each phone sold, then 30% of every penny the user spends through the app/book/music/video stores - or in-app subscriptions. Organised crime must be kicking themselves for not thinking of this racket first. And you don't need Apple hardware to buy music from iTunes because it's standard AAC. Why are some developers reporting making more money from the smaller iOS market than the larger Android market? When it comes to monetisation, it's not always about size it seems.

The console market is like a reverse captive audience, first you have to get people to buy the console (profit margin unknown) then you have to get them to buy stuff for it. So you need to sell a lot of consoles just to catch the few who spend regularly. It continues to surprise me that, at the last count (I saw) 360 and PS3 had worldwide sales of around 80m each and yet even a runaway game like GTA V sold a mere 15-16m on each platform - so about one in six owners bought it. The number of sales relative to the user base of the console market seems freakishly low given entertainment is something that people are usually willing to spend money on. If your user base is low, it's that more difficult to make decent profits over the long haul given you are still expected to invest in exclusives titles, develop your consoles capabilities and maintain the ecosystem (servers etc).

True. But you have to take account you can drive up market share of your console by easily driving down your profits. The more marketshare the better but its not leadership is a requirement for success.

Its not like Nintendo was going broke when its was market leader with just a 50 million userbase in years gone past. And given the multiple revenue streams that exist on consoles now, 50 million in face of a 100-120 million market leader doesn't mean your platform can't be a rather successful revenue generator.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

I think NPD were the only regular (monthly) figures back then but NPD represented a single market and subsequently more direct data for worldwide sales has become available which has allowed charts like the following (posted earlier by DrJay24, crediting ZhugeEX on GAF) to show relative performance of consoles for the first 50 months (four years) of their lives.

This shows the PS3 first 14 months selling about as much as 360 did in it's first 14 months. Of course the 360 had no [then] next gen competition when it launched and was a very slick package. When the PS3 launched not only was it monstrously expensive, the firmware and OS were in a very poor state and it had entrenched competition in the 360 which was both cheaper and had a lot more quality software.

And that's a perfect example of the influence of previous generation install base and fan loyalty. By any measurement available at the time, the X360 was far far superior to the PS3 in the first 2 years of the PS3 lifespan. Better looking visuals in multi-platform games (sometimes very signficant differences in those first 2 years, far greater than anything this generation), a larger and more varied stable of exclusives (in the first 2 years of PS3's life/3 years of X360's life) which included many Japanese made exclusives.

By all right's the X360 should have stomped on the PS3. But the PS3 sold relatively equal to the X360 despite the relatively huge disparity in multi-platform visual quality (especially when compared to this generation) and number of exclusives. And that's to be expected when coming from the Xbox Original/PS2 install bases. There was a huge shift in buying habits with a ton of people shifting over to the Xbox platform from the Playstation platform. But due to the relatively huge install base of the PS2, there were still more than enough of the Playstation's diehard loyal fans that it could still basically equal the X360 in generational sales. BTW - that whole contingent of the PS faithful were never going to buy an X360, so the X360 still basically had competition in the first year.

So, recap. PS2/Xbox -> PS3/X360. Massive losses generation to generation for PS3 as many owners who weren't diehard Playstation fans bought an X360. Massive gains for the Xbox brand as they picked up those players.

That makes for an interesting comparison when looking at this generation. We have a massive increase in Playstation sales as people go back to the Playstation brand. We have absolutely no drop off in Xbox sales (thus far).

From a generation to generation outlook. PS3 was obviously far worse than PS2. X360 was obviously far better than Xbox. PS4 is obviously far better than PS3 (and even PS2). XBO is slightly better than X360 and massively better than Xbox.

Again, from an objective standpoint the brand is still growing. Thus it's still successful.

It just isn't as successful as its competition. It's not PS4 successful, there's no arguing that. But it absolutely is a success, even if only a minor one, when looking at the brand itself.

Just for shites and giggles to put some perspective on things. Up or Down is relative to the immediately preceeding generation. The last entry is Up or Down relative to the immediately preceding generation on a time aligned scale. Using VGchartz for some of the numbers. Those might be slightly off (according to Sony and Microsoft financial reports/press releases, X360 should be ahead of PS3 in lifetime sales, for example) but should be close enough for this purpose.

Nintendo,

• NES (61.91m) -> SNES (49.10m) Down -> N64 (32.93) Down -> GameCube (21.74m) Down -> Wii (100.9m) Up -> Wii-U Down
• Gameboy (118.69m) -> GBA (81.51m) Down -> DS (153.98m) Up -> 3DS (52.01) down

Sony,

• PS1 (104.25m) -> PS2 (157.68m) Up -> PS3 (85.41m) Down -> PS4 Up

Microsoft

• Xbox (24.64m) -> X360 (84.7m) Up -> XBO Up

It's the youngest of the console brands, so there isn't as much history. But an interesting fact is that it is currently the only console that has continued to grow its brand generation after generation. None of the other brands has been able to do this. That said, it is still early in the generation and it is entirely possible that by the end of the generation it might sell less than the previous generation. It's also entirely possible it continues to sell more than the previous generation.

Really, I fail to see how the XBO can be considered a failure until it fails to at least match the immediate prior generation. It's obviously not dong as well as the competition, who is exceeding everyone's expectations (including Sony's). But that doesn't make it a failure.

As to whether it is underperforming, it's likely safe to say yes. But by how much? Since we don't know Microsoft's pre-launch sales targets, we can't really say. It's highly unlikely they had a sales target even remotely close to what PS4 is currently selling at as even Sony didn't have a sales target that high, and they were going into this with the more powerful machine at a cheaper price.

So, what could I say about this generation so far?

• PS4 - Outperforming company expectations, outperforming the competition, outperforming previous generation, highly successful.
• XBO - Underperforming company expectations, underperforming the competition, outperforming previous generation, moderately successful.

Regards,
SB

 

[Rangers]

I think NPD were the only regular (monthly) figures back then but NPD represented a single market and subsequently more direct data for worldwide sales has become available which has allowed charts like the following (posted earlier by DrJay24, crediting ZhugeEX on GAF) to show relative performance of consoles for the first 50 months (four years) of their lives.

There's no worldwide shipment data for Xbox One since Microsoft doesn't provide that, so Xbox One data on that graph will necessarily be some approximation or estimation, which isn't much better than VgChartz. It's just basically what somebody thinks is reasonable, and that graph surely presents a pessimistic estimate for Xbox One in the absence of hard information. Not that it will drastically change anything. A gaffer will probably have the X1 at 11-12 million where my estimate is 13.7 (just based on the simple method of assuming 360 shipments=known ps3 shipments for all the quarters MS hasn't broken them out). But a better (more generic) estimate would probably be "13-14 million".

Again not that it really changes the graph or general trends or discussion that much.

 

[Shortbread]

XBO - Underperforming company expectations, underperforming the competition, outperforming previous generation, moderately successful.

Outperforming at what cost?

XB360 didn’t require multiple price drops or super bundling deals during the first year of its lifespan to be successful. One could argue that (if) XB360 had these unique price drops and bundling deals during its first year... then XB1 sales mayn’t look all that great when compared to its predecessor.

In other words… if the XB360 had price cuts and the nice bundling deals during the first year of its lifecycle. Would the current XB1 install-base be all that impressive when compared to its predecessor on equal footing?

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Outperforming at what cost?

XB360 didn’t require multiple price drops or super bundling deals during the first year of its lifespan to be successful. One could argue that (if) XB360 had these unique price drops and bundling deals during its first year... then XB1 sales mayn’t look all that great when compared to its predecessor.

In other words… if the XB360 had price cuts and the nice bundling deals during the first year of its lifecycle. Would the current XB1 install-base be all that impressive when compared to its predecessor on equal footing?

What ifs are just that. They are interesting to think about but have absolutely zero bearing on the reality of the marketplace.

If the PS3 had launched a year earlier would the X360 have been as successful? If the PS3 had launched a year later with a G8x based GPU would it have done better? If the PS3 had launched at a cheaper price would it have done better? If the XBO had launched at a cheaper price than PS4, would it be doing better? If the XBO had launched a year earlier than the PS4, would it be doing better? If the Wii-U didn't have such a god-awful controller would it do better? Etc.

Heck, if Nintendo had accepted Sony's proposal for a partnership to include a CD drive on a Nintendo game system would the Playstation brand even exist?

None of it relevant. Nothing is going to change how the X360 (or any other console) performed because that's recorded history. Regardless of any hypotheticals, the reality (the only thing that matters when discussing the success of a product) is the only thing that matters.

Regards,
SB

 

[Shortbread]

They are interesting to think about but have absolutely zero bearing on the reality of the marketplace.

I have to disagree.

If MS is willing to use historical data (XB360) on gauging their current product (XB1) as a success… then one can present rebuttals (opinions) on why it flawed. IMHO, the main reason for XB1 current success (sales_install_base_ratio) when launch aligned with XB360, has more to do with several price cuts (official and unofficial) and the very generous bundling deals XB1 enjoys.

Mind you I’m not saying this is a bad thing… however, I’m not pretending XB1 success over XB360 is purely related to XB360 users and causal gamers flocking to XB1 just because its a hot product. More like, XB360 users and casual gamers understanding that MS doesn't have the edge (hardware, indies, 1st party titles, etc...) this time around, and willing (price cuts, super bundling deals, etc..) to do mostly whatever on attracting them.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

True. But you have to take account you can drive up market share of your console by easily driving down your profits. The more marketshare the better but its not leadership is a requirement for success.

Again, I agree with you. Selling consoles at cost (zero profit), still needing to support it or at a loss (profitable at some point in the future if the user invests in games and services) is deferring profit.

And that's a perfect example of the influence of previous generation install base and fan loyalty. By any measurement available at the time, the X360 was far far superior to the PS3 in the first 2 years of the PS3 lifespan. Better looking visuals in multi-platform games (sometimes very signficant differences in those first 2 years, far greater than anything this generation), a larger and more varied stable of exclusives (in the first 2 years of PS3's life/3 years of X360's life) which included many Japanese made exclusives.

What evidence leads you to believe it's brand loyalty? All I see is PlayStation consoles selling well. The why is unknowable. Why brand loyalty than people just prefer the controller, or find the combination of features more compelling than the competition, or they prefer PlayStation exclusive games?

There's no worldwide shipment data for Xbox One since Microsoft doesn't provide that, so Xbox One data on that graph will necessarily be some approximation or estimation, which isn't much better than VgChartz.

Didn't they last did in November when they announced they'd almost shipped 10 million consoles which was widely interpreted, as within the next month. And I believe the accepting period for shipped consoles to become to sold through is six weeks. It's true Microsoft make you work for the figures but they've never been good at releasing figures if they're not happy with them.

But they'll certainly need to say something next month at E3. They must be under pressure from the Board on behalf of investors to be more transparent about this specific line of business taken separately from Surface and licensing.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Do you have data by region?

No I don't, but in general the countries where X360 made sales numbers aren't the countries where piracy is most rampart. 360 main markets and sales came from North America, Europe and few other countries such as Australia. The piracy rate in these countries apart from some minor places aren't at a level that you can logically pin the relative success of 360 on it, let alone claiming it to be the only reason, on contrary it sounded like the most trollish statement I've read in a long time.

It continues to surprise me that, at the last count (I saw) 360 and PS3 had worldwide sales of around 80m each and yet even a runaway game like GTA V sold a mere 15-16m on each platform - so about one in six owners bought it. The number of sales relative to the user base of the console market seems freakishly low given entertainment is something that people are usually willing to spend money on. If your user base is low, it's that more difficult to make decent profits over the long haul given you are still expected to invest in exclusives titles, develop your consoles capabilities and maintain the ecosystem (servers etc).

Total sales and effective active user base are two very different things. It's hard to say what the actual figures are, but considering how long ago the consoles launched, consoles breaking, people owning multiple consoles or abandoning them altogether etc., I wouldn't be surprised if the active user base at the launch of GTA 5 for both of these consoles were not much higher than 50%.

Really, I fail to see how the XBO can be considered a failure until it fails to at least match the immediate prior generation. It's obviously not dong as well as the competition, who is exceeding everyone's expectations (including Sony's). But that doesn't make it a failure.

As to whether it is underperforming, it's likely safe to say yes. But by how much? Since we don't know Microsoft's pre-launch sales targets, we can't really say. It's highly unlikely they had a sales target even remotely close to what PS4 is currently selling at as even Sony didn't have a sales target that high, and they were going into this with the more powerful machine at a cheaper price.

I think it's pretty safe to say it is quite massively underperforming their expectations. The fact alone that they basically built everything around Kinect and very soon after launch just dropped and forget it speaks more than enough of the situation, that alone right there is enough information on the matter. I think everything they said and their general attitude prior to the launch points a clear picture that they expected this thing to sell through the roof. The numbers can be seen in many ways so far, I see them as expected disappointment, because comparisons to early 360 years means imo very very little. I do not think history will remember Xbox One as a successful console, but I guess we will just have to wait and see what MS manages to do with it. They certainly have the pockets to push it.

 

[BoardBonobo]

No I don't, but in general the countries where X360 made sales numbers aren't the countries where piracy is most rampart.

*Word Police* I think you meant rampant? A rampart is part of a fortification, unless you are implying that piracy is a heavily fortified construct that is capable of repelling attacks and withstanding sieges?

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Yes I meant rampant, but thought I was using the right word haha.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

I think it's pretty safe to say it is quite massively underperforming their expectations. The fact alone that they basically built everything around Kinect and very soon after launch just dropped and forget it speaks more than enough of the situation, that alone right there is enough information on the matter. I think everything they said and their general attitude prior to the launch points a clear picture that they expected this thing to sell through the roof. The numbers can be seen in many ways so far, I see them as expected disappointment, because comparisons to early 360 years means imo very very little. I do not think history will remember Xbox One as a successful console, but I guess we will just have to wait and see what MS manages to do with it. They certainly have the pockets to push it.

Once their sales numbers consistently come in lower than the X360's then you might actually have a leg to stand on with regards to that. Until, then, as I've said it's entirely too premature to call it anything remotely resembling a failure.

This fall is going to be the first real test with regards to how well XBO is going to do relative to the X360. As XBO with Halo 5 will be going up against X360 with Halo 3.

Regards,
SB

 

[Deleted member 86764]

Hasn't the Xbox One sold less than the 360 for several months in 2014? I seem to remember Rangers showing it last year. From what I understand (willing to stand corrected), is that Xbox One sells very well in November and December and not so well the rest of the year.

The chart that's been shown on this thread a bunch of times only shows three month intervals, I'd like to see one that shows it month-by-month. It'd give us a clearer picture.

 

[DieH@rd]

Nintendo financial report is out, and the they missed the mark on both 3DS and WiiU sales. They have reduced the costs and marketing, so overall they were in the green.

Hardware & Software Results FY15:
3DS HW: 8.73 million
Wii U HW: 3.38 million
3DS SW: 62.74 million
Wii U SW: 24.440 million

WiiU lifetime: 9.54m
3DS lifetime: 50.41m
Wii lifetime: 101.52m


I believe that WiiU will sell less in the next FY. From now to next april, they have very little software for this console. As for 3DS, it peaked long ago, and even [yet another] new SKU did not introduce larger sales. I think there is a chance that they will announce 3DS successor at E3 2016.

 

[McHuj]

I believe that WiiU will sell less in the next FY. From now to next April, they have very little software for this console. As for 3DS, it peaked long ago, and even [yet another] new SKU did not introduce larger sales. I think there is a chance that they will announce 3DS successor at E3 2016.

E3 2016? If they don't surprise with a new handheld this year, I think they will have really blown it.

They're guidance for 2016 is only 7.6M 3DS and 3.4M WiiU, that's not good. Sure they're going to keep selling software and that will generate revenue, but I would think you want the next platform to build a base and be ready to take over software revenue when the previous generation's software revenue drops off.

 

[Goodtwin]

Nintendo nets over $350 million dollars for the fiscal year. That's pretty good considering they are weathering the storm for their worst selling home console ever. The 3DS is losing steam, but still doing ok, especially on the software front. Even Wii U software sales are pretty good considering the install base.

 

[chris1515]

The future is not so good on Xbox One side even if they revert the situation in US and UK and sells nearly 50 millions consoles there. They will not sell many consoles in rest of the world. In 2016 the number of console will probably went under the 360 numbers if someone do the same graph...

 

[Rikimaru]

Interesting even though Wii U did not meet abysmal sales target they still expect it to sell same amount next year without hits like Mario Kart 8 and Smash this year. Will they do a small pricecut?

 

[dobwal]

Hasn't the Xbox One sold less than the 360 for several months in 2014? I seem to remember Rangers showing it last year. From what I understand (willing to stand corrected), is that Xbox One sells very well in November and December and not so well the rest of the year.

The chart that's been shown on this thread a bunch of times only shows three month intervals, I'd like to see one that shows it month-by-month. It'd give us a clearer picture.

The 360 sold sub 200k on a monthly basis from March 2007 to July 2007 (199k, 174k, 155k, 198k and 170k) according to NPD. And that was with a 360 competing against a PS3 that sold sub 130K (except for the month of july which was 159k) from February 2007 to Oct 2007.

I haven't kept up with Xbox One numbers.