Relying solely on Infoscout Black Friday sales data is like relying solely on Fox News Corp for Presidential exit polling data.
All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+
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Relying solely on Infoscout Black Friday sales data is like relying solely on Fox News Corp for Presidential exit polling data.
heres infoscout's data for 2013 & 2014
their past massive failure last year should reflect on their current data
btw shiftygeezer, I didnt say any such thing
Failure based on what on what exactly?
As Ramer said we are talking a single day's worth of data not the whole month of November.
Does NPD release black Friday only figures?
Xb1 could have easily won black Friday last year and still barely been neck and neck with the PS4 for the whole month of Nov. If you are readily supply constrained you don't really need black friday to push sales, so why strategize shipments around that date? To throw your buyers into the harm's way of discount buyers known as black Friday shoppers?
Sony could have dropped a million PS4s on some random week and called it Vomit Brown Tuesday and it would have probably sold all the consoles it had on hand. XB1's demand was no where near the PS4 so it made sense for MS to plan shipments around one of the biggest shopping days in US. Sony not so much.
I take info scout data with a grain salt but winning black Friday doesn't mean winning Nov under the circumstances of last year.
Vomit Brown Tuesday is a bit like yesterday for me.
djskribbles
Legend
Yup. The majority of the PS3's sales were outside of the US, whereas the majority of all Xbox sales are in the US. XB1 would have to significantly outsell the PS4 in the US to outsell the PS4 worldwide. I don't see the XB1 outselling the PS4 by more than 3-400k in the US, which is easily made up from the PS4's advantage outside of the US.
That's not really where I'm going with this, my point is Sony currently has a 2:1 sales advantage WW, while its highly likely that MS moved the needle a bit with heavy promotions for the holiday buyers its not like Sony is sitting idle. Their business model is working better than anticipated if news stories with Sony execs have any credibility i.e. they don't know why the PS4 is selling so well and so on.
Sony are not in a financial position to subsidize the PS4 in the US and more importantly it isn't necessary at this point. The holiday season counts for a disproportionate amount of platform sales but its also true that we are talking about a subset of that data in the market where they have had the least relative success. For all the talk about the US and NPD it would interesting to know what sales look like in europe and asia. If you asked me 3 months ago I'd have said the UK is a lost front for MS but more recent data suggest they are gaining some momentum.
I'm curious how widespread and aggressive MS where outside of NA and the UK or if they have conceded (for now) other territories. Because if the only positive coming into 2015 for MS is winning Nov and Dec NPD, that won't be good enough. BC PS4 is still outselling XB1 WW we just don't how wide the margin is and if it is extending or holding. Will MS continue to offer aggressive bundles, work to diversify the first party offerings?
Silent_Buddha
Legend
heres infoscout's data for 2013 & 2014
their past massive failure last year should reflect on their current data
btw shiftygeezer, I didnt say any such thing
You conveniently forget that last year PS4 launched Nov. 15th versus Nov. 22nd for Xbox One in the US, where NPD is tracked. That gave it an extra week of sales. Also you forget to note that both consoles were somewhat supply constrained for both Nov. and Dec.
As well PS4 ONLY launched in NA on the 15th. Meaning all product went to the NA market. The rest of the world launched on Nov. 29th. XBO launched in 13 countries on the 22nd. So allocations for product meant to go on sale in Nov. were also different between the two consoles.
So it's entirely possible that XBO outsold PS4 2:1 or even 3:1 on Black Friday while PS4 came out ahead for the month of Nov. Black Friday does not equal the entire month of November. Especially when your product is sold for less days than your competition and you were both supply constrained.
In other words, launch month for both cannot be compared easily either to each other, or to future years.
Don't forget Britain and Canada as well for X360. As well as Australia, IIRC and a few other smaller markets. The biggest advantage PS3 had was Japan sales. That isn't going to be nearly as big an advantage this time around as sales there are rather anemic. Take Japan out of the running and X360 to PS3 ratio was larger in the US than PS3 to X360 ratio in the rest of the world.
But all of that is moot as this is a new generation. And PS4 is handily winning in almost all territories.
Regards,
SB
djskribbles
Legend
Nope, the PS3 only has a less than 9M advantage over the X360 in Japan. The PS3 has only sold just over 10M in Japan... that's only ~10% of the PS3's sales. And the PS4 could very well reach 10M sold in Japan.
The PS3 was carried by Europe for the most part. And recent PS4/XB1 sales ratios in Europe have showed that the gap is even bigger than last generation.
The XB1 basically needs to dominate the US and UK just to stop the gap from growing. They had to offer insane deals all of November just to keep pace while Sony played it pretty safe this holiday season. If Sony decides to go defensive mode, I think they can gain back their dominance fairly easily, but they don't need to.
The PS3 was carried by Europe for the most part. And recent PS4/XB1 sales ratios in Europe have showed that the gap is even bigger than last generation.
The XB1 basically needs to dominate the US and UK just to stop the gap from growing. They had to offer insane deals all of November just to keep pace while Sony played it pretty safe this holiday season. If Sony decides to go defensive mode, I think they can gain back their dominance fairly easily, but they don't need to.
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Silent_Buddha
Legend
What I stated was not incorrect. Numbers used are from VGCharts. I don't trust their numbers (According to both Sony and Microsoft, X360 reached 80 million sales a month before PS3 did), but it's close enough.
NA - X360 to PS3 - 1.67:1
Rest of world minus Japan - PS3 to X360 - 1.31:1
Japan - PS3 to X360 - 6.11:1
So like I said, the ratio of X360 to PS3 was greater in NA (1.67:1) than the ratio of PS3 to X360 in the rest of the world (1.31:1) And about Europe carrying PS3...
Europe - PS3 to X360 - 1.30:1
So basically in line with the rest of the world that wasn't NA and wasn't Japan. So it didn't carry PS3 any better or worse than those other territories.
As, going by currently available data, PS4 is going to do just a fraction of the PS3 sales in Japan. It's not going to hold that much of a swing.
Europe + rest of world that wasn't Japan was far closer between the 2 consoles than most people on this forum think. And I'm constantly amazed at how often people get this wrong by stating that PS3 dominated the X360 in Europe. A 30% advantage is a healthy advantage but certainly isn't dominating.
Add in Japan and ratio of PS3 to X360 (1.53:1) for the rest of world was still less than the ratio in the US of X360 to PS3.
But as I stated at the end of my previous post. All of that is moot as this is a new generation. And PS4 is handily winning in almost all territories.
And yes, before someone comes in to state the blatantly obvious. PS4 has a significantly larger advantage in Europe over the XBO than the 30% lead it had in the PS3/X360 generation.
Regards,
SB
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1.x to 1 or any other ratio while important doesn't mitigate that the PS3 essentially matched LTD 360 numbers in a years less time and an anemic start. This should serve as a warning to Sony and be encouraging to MS bc they can turn it around and much like Sony wrt price they are doing just that. I do believe a strong exclusive library helped the PS3 get back in the race but I have no proof of that. Similarly I'd wager that continuing to invest in titles like SO or TR could help MS and in 24 months we might be seeing a different leader or a race too close to call.
D
Deleted member 11852
Guest
Naturally. My point was asking Sony if they're worried about the competition is a waste of time. Even back in the dark early days of terrible PS3 sales, Sony barely acknowledged Microsoft, they just focused on what they were doing.
Their PR strategy seems to be quite different from Microsoft.
DuckThor Evil
Legend
Do you honestly think that makes any difference? Sony Launching Nov 15th in NA vs 29th on other places gives you very little room to maneuver with launch quantities. They were producing and allocating these units much prior to some two week window. "All product" most certainly didn't went to the NA market, when major territories launched just two weeks later! These things take a bit more time just two weeks.
djskribbles
Legend
How are you doing your math that you figure the PS4 is on pace to sell a fraction of the PS3 in Japan? The PS4 has sold ~823k in just over 9 months. At it's current rate, it will sell ~8.8M and the PS3 currently sits at 10.1M. With some more japanese dev support, the PS4 could easily sell just as many as PS3. At the moment, the PS4 has virtually no locally made software. That will change in 2015 as there are far more titles scheduled to be released.
XB1 is also selling worse compared to X360, so the advantage Sony had will pretty much remain the same in Japan.
And I shouldn't say that just Europe carried the PS3, pretty much every country outside of the US/UK heavily favored PS3. You just have to look at what percentage of sales came from the US to realize how much more Sony sells elsewhere.
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It appears that Japan's console market of today is very different from a few years ago so it might be true that PS4 could end up selling less than PS3. There's no way to tell now, but I'm pretty sure that the new Final Fantasy and especially Kingdom Hearts 3 will give a nice push.
Speaking of Japan...
Media Create (Nov 24th-30th)
Famitsu (Nov 24th-30th)
Source: GAF
Media Create (Nov 24th-30th)
Code:
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|System | This Week | Last Week | Last Year | YTD | Last YTD | LTD |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 3DS # | 106.517 | 88.653 | 108.373 | 2.481.377 | 4.140.912 | 17.143.297 |
| PSV # | 29.220 | 10.857 | 25.593 | 1.042.924 | 1.016.487 | 3.398.281 |
| PS4 | 13.489 | 12.430 | | 822.554 | | 822.554 |
| WIU | 12.496 | 9.615 | 28.518 | 484.083 | 592.187 | 2.009.513 |
| PS3 | 5.360 | 4.324 | 13.311 | 423.301 | 746.652 | 10.132.975 |
| XB1 | 1.237 | 776 | | 39.698 | | 39.698 |
| 360 | 108 | 100 | 309 | 9.275 | 23.094 | 1.648.591 |
| PSP # | 18 | 11 | 4.232 | 97.695 | 408.292 | 20.166.104 |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| ALL | 168.445 | 126.766 | 180.924 | 5.400.907 | 6.994.316 | 55.361.013 |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| PSVTV | 1.285 | 621 | 5.391 | 69.956 | 55.431 | 146.200 |
| PSV | 27.935 | 10.236 | 20.202 | 972.968 | 961.056 | 3.252.081 |
|n-3DSLL| 48.738 | 42.184 | | 506.121 | | 506.121 |
| n-3DS | 22.875 | 26.791 | | 212.771 | | 212.771 |
| 3DSLL | 15.182 | 11.534 | 82.409 | 1.311.821 | 2.808.485 | 6.737.707 |
| 3DS | 19.722 | 8.144 | 25.964 | 450.664 | 1.332.427 | 9.686.698 |
| PSP | 18 | 11 | 4.232 | 97.695 | 408.292 | 19.990.117 |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Famitsu (Nov 24th-30th)
Code:
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|System | This Week | Last Week | Last Year | YTD | Last YTD | LTD |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 3DS # | 86.346 | 83.129 | 100.144 | 2.459.956 | 4.171.682 | 17.153.967 |
| PSV # | 25.847 | 10.303 | 27.768 | 1.033.689 | 1.010.161 | 3.308.828 |
| WIU | 13.533 | 8.506 | 27.325 | 462.930 | 562.000 | 1.981.357 |
| PS4 | 12.073 | 11.141 | | 796.711 | | 796.711 |
| PS3 | 4.769 | 3.862 | 13.302 | 419.973 | 727.233 | 9.988.473 |
| XB1 | 1.175 | 1.182 | | 41.562 | | 41.562 |
| PSP # | 72 | 78 | 3.657 | 83.643 | 402.206 | 19.692.136 |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| ALL | 143.815 | 118.201 | 173.705 | 5.298.464 | 6.966.737 | 52.963.034 |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Source: GAF
40'000 LTD for Xbox One is shocking considering the size of Japan. If I am not mistaken, the PS4 got around 10'000 units at launch here in Switzerland which sold out immediately - a country, the size of a peanut (insubstantial). I know Microsoft is fighting an uphill battle there and the PS4 isn't exactly setting selling records there either, but 40'000 (okay, it's only been roughly 3 months) just seems rather shocking considering what a huge market Japan used to be in anything videogame related.
Silent_Buddha
Legend
Maybe it'll improve. Currently Japan is just 5.3% of PS4 sales versus 14.2% of PS3 sales. Unless something happens to stimulate sales in Japan, it is going to be a rather small fraction of overall PS4 sales compared Japan's share of overall PS3 sales. In other words, it won't carry the PS4 in nearly the same way as the PS3 did, see below. PS4 did go on sale 3 months later. So I expect lifetime share to improve slightly to around 6% perhaps. Again assuming nothing happens to make the Japanese console buyers more interested in it.
Yes, stating the blatantly obvious. Well sort of. Again discounting Japan.
X360 ratio of NA to rest of world = 1.39:1
XBO ratio of NA to rest of world = 1.50:1
So, yes it's worse, but not that far off. And considering XBO currently is still ahead of X360 sales in NA, total sales numbers are likely fairly similar compared to the same time period in X360's life.
The difference is that PS4 is doing significantly better than PS3. And this time around it isn't Japan that is giving it a significant boost compared to X360. This time PS4 is actually dominating Europe (2.78:1) compared to PS3 (1.30:1). Again according to VGChartz.
X360 had a 67% lead in the US. PS3 had a 30% lead in Europe. 31% lead when you factor in the rest of the world minus Japan. I'd say the NA carried the X360 far harder than Europe carried the PS3. In fact, Europeans liked the X360 far more than North Americans liked the PS3. Japan is what really carried the PS3, not Europe.
Japan is what ended up really tilting the rest of the world in PS3's favor as it upped PS3's lead in the rest of the world to 1.53:1 when you factored in Japan.
So, again. Let me state the blatantly obvious.
Europe did not carry PS3 nearly as much as some people like to think.
NA did not carry the X360 nearly as much as some people like to think (with exaggerations of 2:1), but it was still quite heavily favored.
Europe + Rest of world not including Japan did not carry PS3 nearly as much as people like to think.
Japan provided a huge advantage to PS3 not only with a high ratio of sales versus X360 (6.11:1) but also a significant chunk of overall PS3 sales (14.2%).
That all means diddly squat when it comes to this generation.
PS4 is currently leading in NA. (leading versus being behind significantly)
PS4 is dominating in Europe + Rest of world minus Japan. (2.61:1 for PS4 versus 1.31:1 for PS3)
Japan is just a small fraction of overall PS3 sales (~1/20th of PS4 sales versus PS3's ~1/7th of all PS3 sales).
So again, this generation is completely different to last generation and almost no parallels can be made other than XBO is selling almost the same as X360 in both ratio and overall sales. PS4, however, is not performing even remotely similarly to PS3.
I don't know how much clearer I can make this. You cannot compare PS4 to PS3, because it is not performing even remotely like the PS3 did around the world.
Disclaimer: I don't trust the VGChartz numbers (especially for PS4/XBO), but it's close enough that it wouldn't change standings or numbers significantly. IE - PS4 would still be dominating Europe + rest of world regardless.
Disclaimer 2: It's still early in the generation and things can and likely will change. If I were a betting man (I'm not), however, I certainly wouldn't bet on XBO catching the PS4 much less passing it. The best that XBO can do is reduce the ratio of PS4:XBO, IMO. And there's the chance that PS4 will increase the ratio of PS4:XBO.
Regards,
SB
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You changed your post & what you originally said...
djskribbles said:
I was talking specifically Black Friday since that it was you originally posted. Naturally you moved the goal posts to say PS4 will outsell XB1 for the whole month of November worldwide. I don't necessarily dispute that. But Black Friday is one day out of a whole month & it's predominately an American sale day. Everybody is saying XB1 most likely outsold PS4 in the U on that one day & I totally agree. I also don't think there will be enough PS4 Black Friday sales outside the US where it will the eclipse the XB1 sales in the US. You may still disagree, but the bad thing we will probably never get any world wide Black Friday sales figures to confirm either way. So all of this is probably moot anyway.
Tommy McClain
RancidLunchmeat
Veteran
VGchartz (Whoo hoo!!) is reporting that the One widely outsold every console during "Black Friday Week" (A day is apparently a week now), and many news sources are picking up their story running with it as if it were legit. It's apparently the second most console sales ever since the second (??) year of the Wii, that I think moved 30,000 or so more consoles.
http://www.neowin.net/news/microsof...0k-xbox-one-consoles-during-black-friday-week
Also, I've seen many comments in this thread that the One isn't selling as well as the 360. Do you mean comparatively to the Sony offering? Because I thought that everything I've read has said that the One is selling more units than the 360 did, it's only problem is that it is selling far less than the PS4?
http://www.neowin.net/news/microsof...0k-xbox-one-consoles-during-black-friday-week
Also, I've seen many comments in this thread that the One isn't selling as well as the 360. Do you mean comparatively to the Sony offering? Because I thought that everything I've read has said that the One is selling more units than the 360 did, it's only problem is that it is selling far less than the PS4?
The low XB1 sales talk was of monthly sales throughout the year up until the current holiday season. This discussion was primarily disregarding the launch months and was talking about aggregate demand. Perhaps there will be further talk of that next year if XB1 is unable to outpace the PS4. That remains to be seen.
Your reality of the situation is far off… sales improve around the holiday season - not nose plunge off into the abyss. Even If MS managed to sale (through) 1.3 million units in the U.S. during November… it still wouldn’t eclipse PS4 worldwide sales during that month. As I stated before, Sony is averaging a million units monthly in worldwide sales… so it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that November would be even “greater” for PS4 moment, as with XB1.
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