All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+

[Shifty Geezer]

It's been close to a month since their last 1m sold update (7m).

I wouldn't expect a PR announcement every million. I expect launch numbers and a few milestones, but the rest would just be at financials. In this case, the last updates was for end of FY. At launches there are lots of milestones and update figures to crow about (eg. updates at CES keynotes or GDC or ahead/just after a new territory launch). 8 million isn't any sort of figure that I expect an announcement of. The next obvious announcement will be 10 million as a milestone, or maybe a count at E3.

51m would be in between what PS2 and PS3 sold in the same time frame. It's about 1.34M consoles a month, pretty close to what they're averaging now (if you assume they're at about 8M in 6 months)

I don't think it's that unreasonable...

Yeah. If PS4 is absorbing a lot of previous XB360 owners, and Wii owners who now want to game HD and don't want WiiU, then PS4's sales should be pretty buoyed. The greatest impact will be console market shrinkage assuming no other remarkable changes (eg. Kinect super-Thing released and everyone suddenly wants XB1). if the console market isn't shrunk, PS4 could do PS2 sales.

 

[London Geezer]

No announcements will be made before E3. OBVS.

End of 2016 would be over three years (38 months).

Doh! Yes you're right... For some reason I had read the analysis as 'before 2016'. Still, we all know that these analysts are hardly ever right.

 

[djskribbles]

Ya, they'll probably save their next announcement for E3.

 

[zed]

Wow I did not expect that at all, though for the xbone this is perhaps the best news as its a real wakeup call to MS that their strategy has failed

kinectless xbone with pricecut coming in . 3 . 2 . 1

ZERO

 

[djskribbles]

It was already posted for pre-order earlier today. Interested to see how it climbs amazon's chart. My guess is that it won't set the world on fire, but there will be a spike followed by a moderate bump in overall sales (like what the Titanfall bundle did for XB1).

399 will probably bring it closer to parity in the US/UK, but 349 would have done so much more IMO.

 

[Rangers]

Amazon charts...oh yes I'm on it.

The $499 TF SKU is currently 27, green arrow. It seems to have climbed, I guess just on general Xbox talk? I also think that SKU might be becoming increasingly scarce offline, replaced by the "Standard" version which comes with Forza 5, which will cause it to be more demanded at Amazon.

Xbox "standard edition with Kinect" is #86, but it's only from a third party seller currently (which will nerf it from chart climbing). It's weird, all X1's come at least with Forza 5 AFAIK, yet Amazon doesn't seem to denote that in it's standard edition listing. It's rather confusing. Or perhaps third parties really are hawking old no-games Xbox One stock (which would be terrible value obviously). I really dont know.

And the new Kinectless SKU is currently #92.

In any case dont expect Xbox to ever compete with PS on Amazon rankings it never has, probably even if it was outselling it 10-1 in the real world. At best compare it to itself. In other words I dont expect 399 SKU to ever overtake PS4 on Amazon, at least not more than in some temporary spasm, but if it outperforms the TF SKU regularly that would be good news for MS.

Not sure how high the 399 SKU can go since it's still 27 days from release, I'd imagine that will nerf demand somewhat.

 

[Globalisateur]

Meanwhile, Minecraft on PS3 quietly climbed all amazon charts, now even overtaking its Himalayan located X360 brother on all Amazons known on blue Earth...

 

[Rangers]

Aquamarine posted market share stats. I am assuming these are right from NPD as she has access to NPD. It's laid out like this because her purpose was showing how Toys R Us share has declined

NPD Retailer Marketshare, beginning of the 6th gen (approx. 2001):

1) Wal-Mart - 20%
2) Toys R Us - 14%
3) Best Buy - 11%
4) Babbage's / GameStop - 11%
5) Electronic Boutique - 10%
6) Target - 7%


NPD Retailer Marketshare, beginning of the 7th gen (approx. 2007):

1) GameStop - 25%
2) Wal-Mart - 24%
3) Best Buy - 14%
4) Target - 14%
5) Toys R Us - 4%
6) Circuit City - 3%


NPD Retailer Marketshare, beginning of the 8th-gen (approx. 2014):

1) GameStop - 30%
2) Wal-Mart - 25%
3) Target - 15%
4) Best Buy - 12%
5) Amazon - 6%
6) Toys R Us - 1%

I'm not sure these are hugely accurate...Target being 3/5 of WM seems wrong, overall WM is like 5X as big as Target. But, anyway.

 

[zed]

I'm not sure these are hugely accurate...Target being 3/5 of WM seems wrong, overall WM is like 5X as big as Target. But, anyway.

I though NPD only recently started tracking walmart

 

[Rangers]

Sonyyyyy results

So they shipped 3.7 million PS4+PS3 combined. For comparison, MS shipped 2.0m Xbox, which breaks down as 1.2 X1 and .8 X360. Sony does not do any breakdown.

We already knew Sony sold about 3 million in Jan-March because they had announced it. We knew they were also selling basically every PS4 they could make. So, no surprises here.

So ostensibly, 3.0 m PS4 and 700k PS3, I guess we should assume.

Does mean the 360 probably sold about as well as PS3 last quarter if not better. i think somebody tried to challenge me on that a few pages ago since "vgchartz" had PS3 selling a lot better. I'm more convinced than ever 360 has a slight worldwide lead that it never relinquished. IDC, Vgchartzzzz etc notwithstanding. Not that it really matters.

We can compare like for like in this way, since Oct 2013, Sony has shipped 7.8+3.7=11.5m (PS4+PS3). Microsoft has shipped 7.4+2.0=9.4m (X1+X360)

Sony forecasts 17.0 PS consoles in the upcoming FY. I dont know if they're expecting PS4 supply constraints, but it seems like they could top that easily otherwise, with lets say 2-3 million PS3 sales expected?

 

[zed]

0.7 million psp/vitas
I'ld say based on sales numbers. Japan > 0.3million sold in those 3 months minimum, so basically japan equals the rest of the world

 

[Rangers]

Do we feel a really bad NPD for MS tomorrow since they announced the $399 price, possibly some assume in reaction to terrible NPD?

We shall see!

 

[Rangers]

Saw NPD definied "core gamers". Says there are 34 million in the USA. http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articl...t-of-four-us-gamers-prefer-physical-games-npd

The report comes from a survey of more than 7,900 core gamers ages 9 and up conducted in March. The research firm defined "core gamer" as anyone who plays five hours or more on Microsoft or Sony consoles, PC, or Mac, and plays in certain genres (action, adventure, fighting, flight, MMOs, racing, real-time strategy, RPGs, shooters, or sports games) on those platforms.

The NPD Group put the total US core gamer audience at 34 million people, with the average player spending 22 hours a week on games. Two-thirds of them also played games on mobile devices, and 70 percent played multiplayer games at least occasionally.

"Core gamers are really the lifeblood of the industry, spending tremendous amounts of time on their hobby of choice," said NPD analyst Liam Callahan. "With the new console generation off to a great start, we can expect the amount of time spent gaming to increase as more core gamers adopt them."

Interesting definition, I'd have not necessarily thought to define core gamers in terms of brand and genres but it totally makes sense. Also, no Nintendo is another black eye for them.

 

[temesgen]

Sonyyyyy results

So they shipped 3.7 million PS4+PS3 combined. For comparison, MS shipped 2.0m Xbox, which breaks down as 1.2 X1 and .8 X360. Sony does not do any breakdown.

We already knew Sony sold about 3 million in Jan-March because they had announced it. We knew they were also selling basically every PS4 they could make. So, no surprises here.

So ostensibly, 3.0 m PS4 and 700k PS3, I guess we should assume.

Does mean the 360 probably sold about as well as PS3 last quarter if not better. i think somebody tried to challenge me on that a few pages ago since "vgchartz" had PS3 selling a lot better. I'm more convinced than ever 360 has a slight worldwide lead that it never relinquished. IDC, Vgchartzzzz etc notwithstanding. Not that it really matters.

We can compare like for like in this way, since Oct 2013, Sony has shipped 7.8+3.7=11.5m (PS4+PS3). Microsoft has shipped 7.4+2.0=9.4m (X1+X360)

Sony forecasts 17.0 PS consoles in the upcoming FY. I dont know if they're expecting PS4 supply constraints, but it seems like they could top that easily otherwise, with lets say 2-3 million PS3 sales expected?

you're going to extrapolate WW numbers based of NPD data which suggest parity and is strongest market for MS??? We don't have good data on Europe or much of Asia where Sony is believed by most to be stronger overall.

My guess is WW numbers are very close in terms of overall sales LTD but I won't venture a guess about how many consoles for either platform are still working.

That said the fact that the numbers are so close WW if press statements by both MS and Sony are taken literally then Sony make up the year long gap somewhere in the world and it wasn't America so that is reason enough to say any extrapolations should be done with caution.

Edit:

and yes the fact that they have had 12 months less does suggest PS3 selling better since the launch of the system vgchartz or no vgchartz....

 

[Rangers]

you're going to extrapolate WW numbers based of NPD data which suggest parity and is strongest market for MS??? We don't have good data on Europe or much of Asia where Sony is believed by most to be stronger overall.

I was using ship numbers, which encompass every last nook and cranny in the world...

The X1 no Kinect SKU went up to 50 something on Amazon that I noticed, and now slipped back to 90 (TF bundle remains in the 20's). We may all proclaim it's doom now...though I think it's just too far from release for now.

 

[(((interference)))]

Where's the April NPD, Rangers?

 

[Brad Grenz]

They release Thursday afternoon in the US.

 

[Rangers]

Ooh, I guess BruceLeeRoy (some guy with longstanding industry connections of some type I suppose) on GAF has a couple posts hinting at an awful X1 April NPD...

Originally Posted by Man-is-Obsolete

I predicted a 2:1 ratio of PS4 to Xbone for April with the Xbone at 150k. This post makes it sound like the Xbone may dip below 100k.

Bruceleeroy reply
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=111853318&postcount=367

Cough

He also said

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=111838666&postcount=237

Especially after this next NPD. WhooBoy Sony won't be feeling any pressure

I dunno though, I have never ever heard of anybody having some sort of pre-NPD access to NPD. Like, never. Certainly not on a message board anyway. The other reason I doubt sub 100k is the X1 $449 sale went ~2 weeks into April IIRC. About as much time as it had in the March NPD reporting period for that matter. Now granted, I'd expected those sales to be frontloaded and i could see X1 declining a lot from March, but sub 100k sounds pretty crazy, even given the drop from 5 weeks to 4.

We will see.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

If NPD is that bad (and a bad NPD represents a terrible world situation), it'd explain the change. The early success of XB1 could be the same as the early success of Wii U - there's always going to be a few million platform fans eager to upgrade. The launch sales are mostly irrelevant in determining the health of a platform. Once those early adopters (dang! LB once posted the correct terms and the first buyers aren't 'early adopters' but something else like 'pioneers', but I can't remember the official names now!) have bought up, you're left with the real market evaluation of your product. If that's really low, MS would have to do something.

The units in Amazon suggest it's not really enough, and among the gaming community who are most interested in the platforms at the moment, MS are just looking increasingly ridiculous such that their image is probably hurt more than their platform value is increased. I'm fearing a poor few months ahead.

 

[Deleted member 7537]

Price isn't everything that's for sure. But i'm sure it will help, especially in the US, to move that Live Gold userbase from the 360 to ONE. But, will it be enough? I'm quite suprised that some casual gamers i know are already aware about the performance difference between the two consoles, and also some of them think of games like Destiny or Watch Dogs as PS4 exclusives.

MS really needs to change public perception, or it won't be enough.